All About Learning Curves

Evin Stump P.E.

SCEA Conference 2002

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  is Presentation vs. t e Paper

¦ Due to limitations of time, t is presentation

can only scratc t e surface of t e
information provided in t e paper on w ic
it is based
¦  e paper develops 22 useful learning
curve equations, as 41 fully worked
examples, and illustrates about a dozen
useful learning curve met odologies
 £ackground--1
£ackground

¦ ³Learning´ effect first noted by .P. Wrig t

in 1936; e created a ³learning curve´
mat model
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¦ £asic idea:
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 £ackground--2
£ackground

¦ At first, learning was attributed to

increased motor skills in t e workers as
t ey repeated t eir tasks
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¦ In t is presentation we will stick wit t e
original name: learning curves
(management can learn too)
 Critically Important
in Industrial Cost Analysis
¦  e learning effect can lead to very large
reductions in cost as production
progresses
¦ Finding ways to make learning faster can
result in a uge competitive advantage
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 Some Industrial Uses

¦ Manufacturing labor of ¦ Drilling of wells

a repeated product ¦ Upgrades of existing
¦ Construction products
(repeated structures ¦ Purc ase or raw
like spans of a bridge materials (improved
or tract ouses) yield, decreased
¦ Creation of documents scrap)
(e.g., engineering ¦ Component
specs and drawings, procurement
manuals) (suppliers ave
¦ £oring of tunnels learning, too)
¦ Negotiations
 Not Useful w en«

¦ «production is sporadic
¦   


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¦ «work is fully automated and t ere is no
way to improve t e production rate
¦ «rules & regulations limit t e production
rate
¦ «production quantities are very small
¦ «eac item produced is significantly
different from t e preceding item (custom
products)
 Popular Models

¦ Many learning models proposed, but only

two in common use
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¦ FAQ: w ic is best?
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 Underlying Power Law
 e ³power law´ formula is
t e basis of bot models
 



 



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 Interpretation of ë

¦ Unit (U) model ¦ Cumulative

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average (CA)
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 Power Law Plots

¦ In log-log coordinates, a learning curve

plots as a straig t line
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0+1! 2

Power Law Plot a ple

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 Notation for t e U Model

¦ A elpful notation for t e U model is:

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 Notation for t e CA Model

¦ A elpful notation for t e CA model is:

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 Natural vs. Percentage Slope

¦ Learning curve calculations generally (but

not always) require a value for 
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 Îelations ip £etween S and b

¦ Îelations ip between S and b is 2
 2

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¦ Alt oug t ese relations ips appear a bit

unfriendly, t ere is at least one good
reason for t em (as you will soon see)
 Understanding S

¦ In industry, S typically ranges from 70% to

100%
¦ It¶s counterintuitive, but 100% does not
mean furiously rapid learning²it means no
learning at all (don¶t blame me, I didn¶t do
it!)
¦  e ig est rate of learning ac ieved in
most industrial situations is about 70%
¦ A later c art will s ow some typical
percentage values realized in practice
 Nifty Îesults

¦ Nifty results of t e relations ips defined

on t e previous c art (see paper for proof):

U Model: 




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CA Model: 




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 Mat Form of Nifty Îesults

¦ Nifty results on t e previous c art can be

expressed mat ematically as follows:



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W at You Can Do wit Learning Curves

¦ Subsequent c arts will illustrate important

considerations in using learning curves
and valuable uses of learning curve
relations ips
¦ Due to limitations of time, t ese cannot be
fully explored in t is presentation, but all
are explored in detail in t e paper
¦ All illustrated uses can be done wit eit er
t e U or t e CA model, as is demonstrated
in t e paper
 Areas We Will Îeview Here

¦ We will look briefly at eac of t e following

areas t at are discussed in detail in t e
paper (t e paper looks at a few more)
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 Lore of t e Slope-
Slope-1

¦ Fit learning curves to istorical data w en

available
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¦ Guidelines for use w en istorical data are
not available:
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 Lore of t e Slope-
Slope-2

¦ Guidelines (cont.)
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 Lore of t e Slope-
Slope-3

¦ Guidelines (cont.)
¦  e following typical values assume
repetitive operations.  ey are not valid if
operations are sporadic, as in a job s op
environment.

Manufacturing Activity ypical Slope %

Electronics 90-95

Mac ining 90-95

Electrical 75-85

Welding 88-92
 Lore of t e Slope-
Slope-4

¦ Guidelines (cont.)
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 Lore of t e Slope-
Slope-5

¦ Guidelines (cont.)
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 Lore of t e Slope-
Slope-6

¦ Guidelines (cont.)
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¦ For more ³lore of t e slope,´ see t e paper
 Error Analysis-
Analysis-1

¦ Most common learning curve analysis

errors
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¦  is an exponent; it can create a muc larger %
error in ours t an t e % error in  especially at
large production quantities
 Error Analysis-
Analysis-2

¦ It can be s own (see paper) t at t e ours

estimate error due to a one percentage
point error in S is given approximately by
t e following curve:
Î Versus ¦ Example: if you
! 
c oose S=90% w en
!  you s ould ave
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c osen S=91%, and
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! your production
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quantity is 1,000, your
ours estimate will be
about 12% too low (Î-
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1 in plot)
 W at You Can Estimate-
Estimate-1

¦  e quantities listed ere can all be

estimated wit eit er t e U or t e CA
model
¦  ey assume t e slope is known or can be
determined
 W at You Can Estimate-
Estimate-2

¦ Quantities you can estimate

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 W at You Can Estimate-
Estimate-3

¦ Quantities you can estimate (cont.)

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 Interruption of Production-
Production-1

¦ Production is interrupted for many reasons

¦ W en t is appens, learning can be ³lost´
¦  e learning curve t at was being followed
is no longer valid²w at to do?
¦ An answer as been provided by George
Andelo r, an industrial engineer
¦ His structured process provides a realistic
basis for negotiations about t e cost of
interruption
 Interruption of Production-
Production-2

¦ Andelo r ypot esizes five components of

learning t at can be differently affected by
various interruption scenarios²t ey are:
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 Interruption of Production-
Production-3

¦ Eac of t ese components is assigned a

weig t, and a loss of learning in ours is
computed based on bot objective fact
and subjective opinion
¦  e lost ours are added to t e first unit
after t e interruption, and t e learning is
³backed up´ t e curve to t e unit t at ad
t at number of ours
¦ Production follows t e new curve t us
defined
 Interruption of Production-
Production-4

¦ Here is a typical result from an Andelo r

analysis:

ample Plot of Interrupted

earnin
9   : :    

 
:

  
Hours


 
nits Produced
Fitting Learning Curves to Production Data-
Data-1

¦ If previous production data are available it

is often t e best source for learning slope
for future projects
¦ wo types of data are encountered in
practice
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¦ Eit er a U or a CA model can be fitted to
eit er type of data
Fitting Learning Curves to Production Data-
Data-2

¦ ypical unit data

Unit Hours
1 200
2 185
3 176
4 165
5 150
Etc.
Fitting Learning Curves to Production Data-
Data-3

¦ ypical block data

Units Hours

1-50 55,260

51-150 98,320

151-200 37,360
Fitting Learning Curves to Production Data-
Data-4

¦ Unit data is best but not always available

¦ A simple tec nique for unit data t at works
for bot U and CA models is looking at
doublings of productions quantity, and
averaging
¦  is tec nique relies on two equations
previously s own (see paper for details):



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Fitting Learning Curves to Production Data-
Data-5

¦ A learning curve cannot be fitted to one

block of data²t ere must be at least two
¦ Fits for only two blocks are relatively
simple, using derived formulas for total
ours (see paper)
¦ Fits for t ree or more blocks generally
employ regression analysis
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radeoff Analysis wit Learning Curves-
Curves-1

¦ radeoff analysis is a powerful way to use

learning curves, probably not used as
muc as it s ould be
¦ An obvious application is to trade off
manufacturing met ods and materials
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radeoff Analysis wit Learning Curves-
Curves-2

¦ More sop isticated tradeoffs involving

learning curves
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¦ All of t ese can be done using formulas
from t e paper
 Summary

¦ £ackground
¦ Importance & uses
¦ Models (U & CA)
¦ Power law
¦ ypical slopes
¦ Error analysis Evin J. Stump
Galorath Incorporated
¦  ings you can estimate 310-414-3222 x628
¦ Interruption of production estump@galorath.com

¦ Fitting to production data

¦ radeoffs using learning curves