GB TRG For HZL

D Support file
M A I C
GB TRAINING
GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 1 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd

Around the World
Six Sigma is the most important initiative GE has

ever taken…it is part of the genetic code of our future leadership.
-Jack Welch, Former CEO,
General Electric
You can see the “before” & “after” of an organization

when Six Sigma grabs hold & takes place.
-Richard Johnson, Director of Six Sigma,
Allied Signal
Successful leaders have made Six Sigma their way of conducting business.
-Azim Premji, Chairman,
Wipro Limited

Six Sigma is…
Metric
Metric
6σ Goal
Goal
Benchmark
Benchmark
Locomotive
Locomotive
Culture Way
Way of
of Life
Life
Culture

What is Six Sigma?----Mathematically S.D
3.4 defects per 1000000 opportunities
That means a process efficiency of 99.99966%

In other words, process standard deviation (σ ) should be so less that your process performance can fit
12σ within the customer specified limits. So, no matter how much your process deviates from target,
you always meet what customer wants.
USL: Upper Specification Limit for a Performance Standard.

Anything above this is a defect.
Target
Target LSL: Lower Specification Limit for a Performance Standard.
Anything below this is a defect.
-6σ +6σ
-6σ +6σ
Target: Ideally the middle point of USL & LSL.
LSL TT USL
LSL USL

Six Sigma is Variance Based Thinking
Consider below performance on ‘On time delivery’
Mean 0.70 days
Target 0 days
-20 -10 0 10 20
On Target !!!! Good Performance ??

Six Sigma is Variance Based Thinking
What customer sees!!
-20 -10 0 10 20
Customer always looks at variance , mean is … meaningless

Why 99% is Not Good Enough?
@ 99% @ Six Sigma

More than 110,000 newborn babies Less than 38 newborn babies accidentally
accidentally dropped by doctors and nurses dropped by doctors and nurses each year
each year
No electricity for 85 hours each year No electricity for 9 minutes in 5 years
No television transmission for nearly 64 No television transmission for 11 minutes in

minutes per week 10 years
Four short or long landings per day One short or long landing every two years
16 railway accidents per day 2 railway accidents per year
16 minutes per week of unsafe water 1.4 minutes of unsafe water every 5 years
supply

Cost of Poor Quality
Sigma Level Defect per Million Opportunities Cost of Quality
2 308,537 (Non-competitive companies) Not Applicable
3 66,807 25-40% of Sales
4 6,210 (Industry Average) 15-25% of Sales
5 233 5-15% of Sales
6 3.4 (World class) < 1% of Sales
Source: Six Sigma by Mikel Harry
Being Better is Cheaper

Six Sigma Benefits
■ Continuous Defect Reduction in Products & Services
■ Enhanced Customer Focus
■ Process Sustenance
■ Performance Dashboards & Metrics
■ Project Based Improvement, with Visible Milestones
■ Sustainable Competitive Edge
■ Global Acceptance of the Quality System
■ HELP IN MAKING RIGHT DECISIONS

HOW SIX SIGMA HELPS IN TAKING RIGHT DECISIONS
FEW ILLUSTRATIONS

Case-1 : HOW SIX SIGMA HELPS IN TAKING RIGHT DECISIONS
A manufacturing company is having 2 lines. The avg

breakdowns & targets are given as under:
Line-1 :
Baseline = 3 breakdowns/ week poisson distribution
Target = 1 breakdown/ week max.
Line- 2 :
Baseline = 12 breakdowns/ week
Target = 6 breakdown/ week max.
Which line is having tougher target?

???????

This data data set is giving your current

performance on cycle time, you as a boss set a
Cycle time in min
target of ’42’ , your subordinate achieved ’44’ as
avg performance in the year. How you will rate 1. 50
your subordinate: 2. 47
• Below plan 3. 42
4. 54
• On plan
5. 56
• Significant improvement 6. 55
7. 42
8. 43
Assume your boss is a tough customer &
he never get satisfies until he is 99% sure. 9. 46
10. 48
11. 57
Graphical Summary

???????
Recall six sigma in
Genetic code

SO, SIX SIGMA HELPS IN TAKING RIGHT DECISIONS
So, six sigma is helpful in taking the right decisions,

rightly said by Jack Welch:
‘Six sigma is the best training an organization

can give to its employees, it’s even better than
sending them to Harward Business School.’

DMAIC
Overview

DMAIC Overview
DEFINE
The Problem
MEASURE
Y ( Outcome) ■ DMAIC applies to an existing process
that needs improvement
Validate Measurement System
ANALYZE
Baseline Y and Set Goal
Identify X’s(Variation Sources)
IMPROVE
Quantify X’s
CONTROL
Control X’s

DMAIC Steps
Establish CTQ Characteristics

D
Step 0
Step 1 Define a Project
Step 2 Establish Performance Parameters

Step 3 Validate Measurement System for ‘Y’ M
Step 4 Establish Process Baseline
Step 5
Step 6
Define Performance Goals
Identify Variation Sources
A
Step 7 Explore Potential Causes
Step 8
Step 9
Establish Variable Relationship
Design Operating Limits
I
Step 10 Validate Measurement System for ‘X’
Step 11
Step 12
Verify Process Improvement
Institutionalize New Capability
C
DMAIC Road-Map

DMAIC
Step 0

DMAIC Steps

D
Step 0

Step 5
Step 6
A
Step 8
Step 9
I
Step 11
Step 12
C
Deliverables of Step 0
Step Step Owner
0.1 Define Business CTQ Champion, BB
0.2 Define your Customer Champion, BB
0.3 Explore Customer CTQ Champion, BB
0.4 Define Internal CTQ / Critical Business Process Champion, BB
Cost Reduction Recovery Improvement Reducing Lead & silver in Slag

0.1 Define Business CTQ

CTQ (Critical to Quality)
A CTQ is a
Business CTQ
Product or Service
characteristic Customer CTQ
that satisfies a
Internal CTQ
Customer Requirement
OR
Project CTQ
Process Requirement

What are Business CTQs?
Vision & Mission
■ Business CTQs drive the business goals &
vision
■ Typical Business CTQs are in the area of:
✛ Operational Excellence
✛ Cost Reduction
✛ Productivity Improvement
✛ Employee Satisfaction
✛ Customer Satisfaction
✛ Sales Growth
✛ Profitability

How to Select Business CTQs
■ Start with Business Vision / Plan (2 to 3 year time frame)
■ Identify the quantitative in the Vision

0.2 Define your Customer understanding
customer

Who is your customer?
■ A customer is someone who

✛ Uses your product or service
✛ Decides to buy your product or service
✛ Pays for your product or service
✛ Gets impacted by your product or service
■ Internal & External customers
■ Primary & Secondary customers

Exercise: Who is your customer?
✛ Take 5 minutes & describe your various customers;
✷ Internal/ external
✷ Primary/ secondary
What’s the learning ?

0.3 Explore Customer CTQ

Customer CTQs
■ Six Sigma begins with the customer
■ Customers find it easier to define what they do not want
■ Customer CTQs are defined by customers
■ Sources of customer CTQs

✛ Survey results
✛ Service reviews
✛ Meetings

Customer Requirement – perceived by Sales Team

Customer Requirement – captured by Design Team

Customer Requirement – created by Production Team

Customer Requirement – delivered by Implementation Team

Actual Customer Requirement

Examples of Customer Responses on CTQs
A Car Purchaser A TV Purchaser

■ Good Acceleration • Flat Screen
■ Spacious • Good Sound
■ Affordable • NTSC / PAL Compatible
■ Power Steering • Affordable
■ Loan Facility • Good After Sales Service
A Caller to Help Desk A Prospective Employee

• Quick Answering • Good Salary
• Courteous Response • Location Preference
• Quick Problem Resolution • Flexible Working Hours
• ESOPs
• Separate Cabin

How to Explore Customer CTQs
■ Often, customer requirements are hazy
■ Customer requirements must be understood clearly
■ VOC is a technique to organize, analyze & profile the customer requirements

(collection of requirements is done through surveys / meetings)

Example of an Air Conditioner VOC Example
Customer CTQ’s
VOC Table

0.4 Define Internal CTQ / CBP

Why Internal CTQs / CBPs?
■ Customer CTQs( needs) are often hazy & they must be converted into meaningful
internal goals that are assignable to functions
■ Some functions in the organization may also need to look at internal customers. In this
case, Business CTQs may mingle with Customer CTQs
■ Internal CTQs are internal organizational deliverables that characterize a

customer CTQ
■ Critical Business Processes are the means to achieve a customer CTQ

How to Arrive at Internal CTQs / CBPs
■ Identify the processes associated with your vision / Business Plan
■ Among the processes identified, find out which are the critical ones (CBPs)
■ Establish parameters to measure the CBPs
■ Establish goals on these parameters
■ More structured methods & tools are available to convert Customer CTQs /
Business CTQs into internal CTQs / CBPs
✛ CTQ Drill-down
✛ Quality Function Deployment (QFD / House of Quality)

Application of CTQ Drill-down / QFD
■ CTQ drill-down is best applicable when you focus on a single Customer/Business

CTQ & want to look at internal deliverables to achieve that CTQ
■ QFD is usually drawn at a business / function level where many customer/business

CTQs are considered & prioritized. This prioritized list is then considered for further
exploration on internal CTQs
■ Project teams may use either or both of these two tools depending upon the
requirement

DMAIC
Step 1
Define a Project

DMAIC Steps

D
Step 0

Step 5
Step 6
A
Step 8
Step 9
I
Step 11
Step 12
C
Step Step Owner
1.1 Select a Project & Green Belt Champion, BB
1.2 Scope the Project GB, BB
1.3 Develop Team Charter GB, BB
1.4 Quantify Benefits GB, BB, Finance
1.5 Sign-off with Champion BB, GB
1.6 Kick-off the Project Champion, BB, GB
1.7 Complete Teaming Module BB, GB

1.1 Select a Project & GB

Theme Selection Matrix
■ In those situations when you brainstorm project themes, theme selection matrix can be
used to prioritize project themes.
■ It is a more structured & data-oriented prioritization exercise as compared to multi-

voting. In fact, it can be used even after multi-voting to further short-list

SELECT A GREEN BELT

1.2 Scope the Project

What is Scoping?
■ It’s an attempt to define what will be covered in the project deliverables
■ Scoping sharpens the focus of the project team
■ & sets the expectations right
■ Types of Scoping
✛ Longitudinal Scoping
✛ Lateral Scoping

Longitudinal Scoping
■ Longitudinal scoping is done on the length of the process
✛ e.g. – From the time a bug is assigned to the time it is submitted for fix
✛ e.g. – From the time of customer reporting the complaint till final satisfaction confirmation
■ Mostly the ‘start’ & ‘end’ points are baton change points
■ A macro as-is process map must be prepared to facilitate longitudinal scoping

SIPOC
P Tool
Process
S I O C
SIPOC
1 2 5
Suppliers Inputs Outputs Customers

4
Process Boundary
Variation
Variation in in output
input
Variation in
process

Example of a Photocopying Process

Process Mapping Nomenclature
Process Decision Data
Pre-defined Document Terminator

Process
Manual Manual
Delay
Operation Input

Lateral Scoping
■ Lateral scoping is done on the breadth of the process
✛ e.g. – All despatches from North & South regions
✛ e.g. – Calls received during general shift
■ One or more of the following are covered here:

✛ What all kinds of units the process will cover
✛ In what situations the process is valid
✛ What are the qualifiers for the transactions
✛ What functional domains does the process cover
✛ In what geographical areas the process is valid

Scoping Techniques
■ Write inside the box what you think project covers

Tool
■ Write outside the box what you think project excludes
Example for an ‘On time Despatch’ project
Inside-Outside
Longitudinal
Starts after receipt of PO from customer Any transit delays
Ends at the despatch from factory
Product damages
Lateral
Billing errors
Despatches from Mumbai plant
Non-availability of customer
All despatches during shift A
Despatch through transporter X
Project boundary

Scope Verification
■ After the scoping has been done, following should be checked to validate the scope
✛ If the scoped process is within the control of the GB / Team
✛ If the pain area lies within the scoped process
✛ If the scoped process is narrow enough
✛ If there are enough transactions to measure (at least 20 transactions per month are
recommended for effective measurements)
✛ If the scope is still aligned with the Internal CTQ / CBP
✛ If the scoped process would still result in achieving the objectives set by the Champion
■ Re-scoping may be needed later even after spending considerable time on the project

1.3 Develop Team Charter

Project Teams
Champion Black Belt Green Belt Team Members

Develop Team Charter
■ Fill this table with your BB for the roles of each team member
Tool
Name of the Functional Project

Sl. No.
team member Role Responsibilities
Team Charter
2

1.4 Quantify Benefits

Projection of Benefits
■ Six Sigma has a strong focus on money
■ Management buy-in is easier for tangible benefit projects
■ Tangible benefits could be of various types

✛ Cost Reduction / Saving
✛ Increase in Sales / Revenue
✛ Enhanced productivity
✛ Enhanced measurable Customer Satisfaction
✛ Enhanced measurable Employee Satisfaction

1.5 Sign-off with Champion

Project Sign-off
■ Champion’s sign-off ensures a common understanding of deliverables
■ It reflects his approval on team members & financials
■ It indicates the tentative project plan
■ Formal sign-off is a must

Project Agreement Form
Tool
Project Agreement Form

DMAIC Project
Agreement Form

1.6 Kick-off the Project

Call a Team Meeting
■ Call a project team meeting to formally begin the project
■ Ask Champion to define his expectations from the project
■ Communicate objective of the project
■ Explain project time frame and deadlines
■ Get agreement from all members on their participation

1.7 Complete Teaming Module

Call a Team Meeting
■ Present “Teaming Module”, complete “Teaming Workbook” & develop role

clarity for each project team member
■ Develop “Loss-Gain Matrix” with your team
■ Prepare team’s “Elevator Speech”
Teaming Module Teaming Workbook

Create This Matrix with Your Team
Tool
Loss Gain
What are the What are the

short-term threats Immediate gains
Short Term if we don’t do if we are successful
Loss-Gain Matrix
the project? in the project?
What are the

What are the
Long Term long-term threats
long-term gains?
you can foresee?

Prepare an Elevator Speech with your Team
■ Prepare a speech
Tool
■ Short-list key words
■ Create the vision statement
■ Communicate to organization
Elevator Speech
1. Imagine you want to sell your Six Sigma project to your
CEO in a chance meeting in an empty elevator with 90
seconds to ride.
2. Describe the need for project & the vision of the new state
as if responding to “WHY DO IT”?

Tollgate - Define
■ Macro-level process map
■ Signed-off Project Agreement Form
■ Project kick-off meeting
■ Teaming done for project team Tollgate - DEFINE
■ Loss-Gain Matrix
■ Elevator Speech

CASE STUDY
PAINT PEEL OFF

CASE STUDY

D MAIC
Step 2
Establish
Performance
Parameters

DMAIC Steps
Step 0
Step 1
Define a Project D
Step 2
Step 3
Establish Performance Parameters
Validate Measurement System for ‘Y’ M
Step 5
Step 6
A
Step 8
Step 9
I
Step 11
Step 12
C
Introduction - MEASURE
■ A robust measurement system forms the basis of any Six Sigma project
■ A measurement system has two characteristics

Step 2 of DMAIC
✛ Design of the measurement system
✛ Precision of the measurement system
Step 3 of DMAIC

2.1 Detailed as-is process
2.2 Define a unit
2.3 Define Specifications and Defect
2.4 Understand data characteristics
2.5 Find opportunities for error
2.6 Design sampling plan for establishing process baseline

2.1 Map Detailed As-is Process

What do you see here…any clarity?
Table Phone
Shadow
Pencil stand
Paper
Pad
Wire
Ring Pens

See the Difference Now…
Recall..One
picture is
better than
1000 words
Process Mapping is a graphic display of steps & activities that constitute a process

Benefits of Process Mapping
■ Simple & visible structure for thinking through a complex process
■ Enables seeing the entire process as a team
■ Enables seeing that changes are not made in a vacuum and will carry through,
affecting the entire process down the line
■ Magnifies non value-added areas or steps
■ Identifies cycle times of each step in the process
■ Helps re-examine (if needed) the scope and charter of your project

Micro Process Map of a Manufacturing Process Process Mapping
despatch
as reject
no
yes g/f sampling recording

yes marking for finishing as
transfer to storage at installati guard
? application & properties ? next route per reqmnt. packing despatch/
recoiling concerned customer on film
G/f testing O.k as per cust. (coil, sheet, shipping
line end removal
reqmt. profile)
baking top
additional additional hot air squeezing water hot air squeezin water baking primer
as per coating additional additional ? no
inspection drying by rubber quenching drying g by as per coating
cold air cold air thickness w ft=55-65 cold air quenching cold air end
temp-100 - roll temp=100 w ft-15-18 Paint
drying drying pmt-224 visco-58-65 drying (r.t.) rubber thickness drying
110 Deg C Deg C visc-30 sec peel off
2 burner roll pmt-216
yes
continuous squeezin hot squeezin cold (room squeezin wet squeezin chrom ating coating baking
hot air water hot air
degreas ing g by water g by g by scrubbing on back side as per g.p.
uncoiling of temp) g by concn- 0.8 - drying quenching drying
rubber rins ing rubber rubber 30 w ft thickness complaint
coil concn-0.3-0.4 water rinsing by scoth rubber 1.2 tem p-100 temp -90-
tem p=80 Deg C visco-30 -35 PMT -224 raising by
tem p-80 Deg roll roll roll bright roll Ph-1.2-2.0 Deg C 100 Deg C
sec
customer
START
2 stage
POINT testing of ph , concn. , squeezing
squeezing by
temp, by rubber
rubber roll visit to
of water , degreasing roll & CPC
customer for
and chromating assesment
replacement /
rework end

Another way of mapping processes- CFPM
■ Teams can use this structure for processes that move across functions
Step
Function 1 Step 5
4
See Cycle time also.

Step 3 0.3, 0.1-0.5Hrs Average time & Range
given
Function 2 1.25, 1-1.5Hrs
Step 2
Step 1 Step 8 End

Function 3
4.5, 4-6
Hrs
Step 6 Step 7
Function 4

Points to Look For
■ The pain areas (identified at the time of project selection) must be within the
selected scope
■ Guard against analyzing the process at this stage, just map as-it-is
■ Do not map the process as you would like it to be
■ Take care of Parallel & Sequential activities for Cycle time reduction projects

2.2 Define a Unit

What is a Unit?
■ A unit is the homogeneous & measurable characteristic of a process output
■ Defects are observed / counted in the output characteristic of a unit (denoted as ’Y’)
P
Process
S I 1 2 5
O C
Suppliers Inputs Outputs Customers
4
Process Boundary

Examples
■ In ticket booking example, each ticket booked could be a unit
■ In pizza delivery example, each order could be a unit
■ Other examples
✛ Every call received by a call center agent
✛ Every item despatched by a courier agency
✛ Every match played by Indian cricket team

2.3 Define Specifications & Defect

Can you describe the Quality of this picture?

Can you describe the Defects in this picture?

Now can you Describe Quality based on Defects?

Key Concepts: Quality & Defects
■ Recall that customers are better off telling you what they do not want
■ Quality is absence of defects in the unit identified
■ A defect is an imperfection or deficiency in the output unit with respect to specifications
defined by the customer

■ Quality goes up as defects come down
Sigma level DPMO

2 308,537
3 66,807
4 6,210
5 233
6 3.4
■ A unit may have multiple defects depending upon customer CTQs

■ Defects & Defectives

What is a Specification?
■ A specification is a customer-defined tolerance for the output unit characteristics
■ There may be two-sided specifications
■ Specifications form the basis of any defect measurement exercise
USL: Upper Specification Limit for ‘Y’,

anything above this is a defect.
LSL: Lower Specification Limit for ‘Y’,

anything below this is a defect.
Target: Ideally the middle point of USL & LSL.
LSL Target USL specification

Examples
■ Ticket booking example
✛ Unit: each ticket received by customer
✛ Defect definition: a ticket with wrong booking

a ticket not legible enough Defective ticket
a ticket given after 30 minutes
■ Pizza delivery example
✛ Unit: each order placed
✛ Defect definition: an order delivered after 20 minutes

an order not delivered hot
an order not delivered with salt & pepper
an order not delivered at all

Develop Operational Definition
■ An Operational Definition is a precise description that tells how to get a value for the
characteristic you are trying to measure. It includes what something is and how to
measure it
■ Purpose:
✛ Removes ambiguity – common understanding of defect definition
✛ Identifies what to measure
✛ Identifies how to measure it

Operational Definition - Examples
Try to Remove ambiguity from the statements
■ I’m coming by 8 o’ clock….verify 8 am or pm
■ I’m reaching Dammam by 8 o’ clock flight….verify 8 o’ clock is Arrival or Departure time
■ I’m waiting for Doctor for so long…verify 5 minute or 5 Hrs
■ Give me half bottle water---bottle may by 200ml to 20 Lt
■ I’ve reduce patient’s waiting time…at which stage or what is the start & end point
■ I’ve improve profitability…in which region/ which product

Operational Definition – One more illustration
How much liquid has been consumed?

Half Glass……...is the Quantity same?

2.4 Understand Data Characteristics

Why Collect Data?
■ Improvement can only occur if we understand where we are & where to go, supported
by a measurement system that validates both situations
■ Successful organizations have a common language to communicate-- Data
■ Common language- Data, promotes objectivity in decision-making process
■ Have you reached where you intended to? -- only data answers that question
■ It’s rightly said…If you can’t Measure it, you can’t improve it.

Types of Data
■ Discrete data
✛ Data that can take a limited number of values (Pass / Fail, OK / Not OK, Win / Loss)
✛ Examples
✷ Days in a week
✷ Number of ‘yes’ responses to a satisfaction survey
✷ Number of countries that play cricket
■ Continuous Data
✛ Data that be expressed in either fractions or whole numbers
✛ Examples
✷ Temperature of the room
✷ Exchange rate of a currency
✷ Yield of a process
✷ Height of a person

Continuous Data Characteristics
■ Location / Central Tendency
✛ It is a measure of the center point of any data set
■ Spread / Dispersion
✛ It is a measure of the spread of any data set around its center
■ Shape
✛ It is a measure of symmetry of any data set around its center

Measuring the Location
■ Mean
✛ Mean is the arithmetic average of all data points in a data set
Y1 + Y2 + Y3 + ………. + Yn
Y= Where n = number of data points
n
■ Mode
✛ Mode is the most frequently occurring data point in a data set
■ Median
✛ Median is the middle data point of a data set arranged in an ascending / descending order
Odd number of data points Even number of data points
Average

Measuring the Spread
■ Range
✛ Range is the difference between the maximum & minimum data point
■ Variance / Standard Deviation
✛ Variance & standard deviation measure how individual data points are spread around mean
( Y1 - Y )2 + ( Y2 – Y )2 + ……. + ( Yn – Y )2
Variance = s2 =
(n–1)
Standard Deviation = s = s2

Class Exercise
Given below is the sample data on Customer complaint closure time in hrs.
Compute the Mean & Standard Deviation for each quarter.
Quarter 1 Quarter 2
Sample 1 204 145

Sample 2 202 150
Sample 3 205 140
Sample 4 196 165
Sample 5 198 134
Sample 6 190 130
Sample 7 196 170
Sample 8 205 132
Sample 9 200 145
Sample 10 199 164
Mean 199.5 147.5

Standard
5 14
Deviation

Importance of Spread
A C
■ Mean of Curve ‘A’ is more representative of its data set as compared to Curves ‘B’ & ‘C’
■ Spread outside the specifications may result in defects; this information is not
provided by mean
■ From a process perspective, individual customers are subject to different behaviors

of the process

Quiz: Worst Process??
On Center Off Center
Large Spread Large Spread
LSL TT USL LSL TT USL

LSL USL LSL USL
Off Center On Center

Small Spread Small Spread
TAP EXP
LSL TT USL LSL TT USL

LSL USL LSL USL

Measuring the Shape
■ Symmetric Data set
✛ It’s a data set in which spread of the data set around its mean is identical
Mean,
✛ For such a data set - mean = mode = median
Mode,
Median
■ Asymmetric Data set
Positive / Right skewed Negative / Left skewed
- high spread on the right side of the mean - high spread on the left
side of the mean
Mode Mean Mean Mode
Median Median

Which Type of Data is Preferable?
■ Large sample sizes are required to measure higher Sigma multiples for discrete data
■ Since continuous data measurements can be broken down, relatively smaller

samples are required for higher Sigma calculations
■ Discrete data does not allow to understand the process variation

2.5 Find Opportunities for Error

Opportunities for Error (OFE)
■ Opportunities for error in a process is the number of steps / tasks / actions in the
process, where there is a possibility of committing an error, that may result in a defect
■ OFE enables to compare the output quality of dissimilar processes
■ Concept of OFE is applicable only when defect measurement is discrete
■ This is because data, on whether or not a defect is created, is discrete type (yes / no)

Count OFEs for the Process Map of a Pizza Home Delivery
No
Enter
Call Yes
Customer calls customer details
Answered?
in the system
Take Yes Confirm Take

card Credit card? payment order
details type details
No
Deliver &
Despatch collect money,
order if non-credit card
customer
Defect definition is: Pizza delivered to customer, but payment not made.

2.6 Design Sampling Plan for
Establishing Process Baseline

What is Baseline?
■ ‘Baseline’ refers to a reference point from where the improvement would be

measured
■ For Base lining teams need to collect fresh ‘Samples’.
■ Historical data may have measurement errors like operational definition issues,
which can lead to wrong projection of the Baseline

Introduction to Sampling
■ We do sampling all the time
■ Populations & Samples Tool
■ Practical aspects – Cost & Time
■ Sampling is done to study a representative portion of population
■ Any term describing the characteristics of a sample is called statistic
■ Any term describing the characteristics of a population is called parameter
Sampling
Sample
Population

Populations & Samples
Table 1.60 Population Sample
Definition Collection of items Portion of the

being considered population chosen for
study
Characterist ‘Parameter’ ‘Statistic’
ics
Population Size = N Sample Size = n
Population Mean = µ Sample Mean = Y

Population Standard Sample Standard
Deviation = σ Deviation = s

Types of Sampling
■ Random Sampling or Probability Sampling
✛ All items in the population have an equal chance of being chosen in the sample
✛ Example: A customer satisfaction survey team picking the customers to be contacted at random
■ Non-random Sampling or Judgment Sampling

✛ Personal knowledge & opinion are used to identify items for the sample
✛ It is also used to decide upon how to take a random sample later
✛ Example: A forest ranger may decide on a sample of north-west area to cut lumber

How Big a Sample?
Too Big: Too

small:
• Requires
• Won’t
too many
do the job
resources

Determining Sample Size
■ Business criteria to select a sample size include cost, time & effort. Business
recommends small sample size
■ Statistical criteria ask higher sample size, as, Higher the sample size, better the
accuracy of the information about the population parameters ( µ & σ )
■ There must be a balance between the business & statistical criteria
Sample size
calculator

Example
■ We know that the population standard deviation (from past data) for customer
complaint closure time is 25 hrs. Now, we want to collect a sample that can
estimate the average complaint closure time within ± 5 hrs tolerance with 99%
confidence. What should be the sample size?
2
= 5 Z 99.5 * 25
n=
σ = 25 5
α = 0.01
From Appendix 1, Z 99.5 = 2.58 2
Sample Size
So, sample size n = [ (2.58 * 25) / 5 ]
= 166.4
Round off to next higher integer = 167

D MAIC
Step 3
Validate
Measurement System
for ‘Y’

3.1 Perform GRR study
3.2 Analyze results

3.1 Perform GRR Study

Count the Occurrence of letter ‘I’ in the Paragraph
■ A country preacher was walking the back-road near a church. He became thirsty so
decided to stop at a little cottage and ask for something to drink. The lady of the house
invited him in and in addition to something to drink, she served him a bowl of soup by the
fire. There was a small pig running around the kitchen. The pig was constantly running up
to the visitor and giving him a great deal of attention. The visiting pastor commented that
he had never seen a pig this friendly. The housewife replied: "Ah, he's not that friendly.
Actually, that's his bowl you're using!"

Sources of Variation
Observed Process Variation
Actual
Process Measurement
Variation Variation
Long-term Short-term Variation Variation Variation

Process Process within a due to due to
Variation Variation Sample Operators Gage
Reproducibility
Precission &
Accuracy
Accuracy Repeatability Stability Linearity

Types of Measurement Errors
■ Measurement System Bias - Calibration Study
µ total = µ process +/- µ measurement
■ Measurement System Variation - GRR Study
σ2 total = σ2 process + σ2 measurement

Component of GRR Study
D
Diffe
iffere
rencceele
leaaddss
to
toR
Reeppro
rodduccib
ibility
ility
1 2 1 2 1 2
Trial
3 4 3 4 3 4
Reading
#1 5 6 5 6 5 6
D
Diffe
iffere
rennce
cele
leaaddsto
to
SixParts/ Conditions
R
Reeppeeaata
tabbility
ility
1 2 1 2 1 2
Trial
3 4 3 4 3 4
Reading
#2 5 6 5 6 5 6
Operator Operator Operator
A B C

Methods of Performing GRR: ANOVA Method
■ ANOVA not only separates the equipment & operator variation, but also elaborates
on combined effect of operator & part Tool
■ ANOVA uses the ‘standard deviation’ instead of ‘range’, & hence gives a better
estimate of the measurement system variation
GRR – ANOVA Method

■ ANOVA also may not need the ‘tolerance’ value as an input
■ Let’s see an example

GRR Example
GRR study
Discrete GRR
Part Operator Trial Response
1 1 1 475
1 2 1 442
1 3 1 489
1 1 2 479
1 2 2 462
1 3 2 463
2 1 1 369
2 2 1 326
2 3 1 302
2 1 2 368
2 2 2 328
2 3 2 318
3 1 1 398
GRR Water Soluble
3 2 1 405
Zinc in HBF Cake.
3 3 1 410
3 1 2 415
3 2 2 402
3 3 2 421

Entering Data in Minitab
■ STAT > Quality Tools > Gage R&R Study (Crossed)

Entering Data in Minitab
■ STAT > Quality Tools > Gage R&R Study (Crossed) > Options
Input USL-LSL for

two-sided specifications
on ‘Y’

ANOVA Method
■Minitab gives the following output:
%Contribution
Source VarComp (of VarComp)
Total Gage R&R 430.9 9.05

Repeatability 98.4 2.07
Reproducibility 332.4 6.98
Operator 24.2 0.51
Operator*Part 308.2 6.47
Part-To-Part 4329.4 90.95
Total Variation 4760.3 100.00
If Tolerance
StdDev Study Var %Study Var %Tolerance value is input
Source (SD) (5.15*SD) (%SV) (SV/Toler) (say 250 in
this case),
Total Gage R&R 20.7572 106.900 30.09 42.76 this column
Repeatability 9.9219 51.098 14.38 20.44 will appear
Reproducibility 18.2323 93.896 26.43 37.56
Operator 4.9216 25.346 7.13 10.14
Operator*Part 17.5555 90.411 25.44 36.16
Part-To-Part 65.7981 338.860 95.37 135.54
Total Variation 68.9946 355.322 100.00 142.13
Number of Distinct Categories = 4 Here, Reproducibility is broken into two parts

ANOVA Method Ga g e n a m e :
Da te o f s tu d y :
GRR
GRR
Gage R&R (ANOVA) for Response Re p o rte d b y :

To l e ra n c e :
M is c :
Components of Variation By Part

500
100
% Co n tri b u ti o n
% Stu d y Va r
Percent
50 400
0 300
Ga g e R&R Re p e a t Re p ro d Pa rt-to -Pa rt Part 1 2 3
R Chart by Operator By Operator

40 1 2 3 500
UCL =3 6 .3 0
30
Sample Range
20 400
10 R=1 1 .1 1
0 L CL =0 300
0 Operator 1 2 3
Xbar Chart by Operator Operator*Part Interaction

500 1 2 3 500 Operator
1
2
Sample Mean
UCL =4 2 4 .9 3
Average
400 M e a n =4 0 4 400
L CL =3 8 3 .1
300 300
0 Part 1 2 3

3.2 Analyze results

Continuous Data
■ GRR as a % of Contribution to Variation and Number of Distinct Categories
✛ If GRR as % of contribution is about 10% of the total variation - acceptable
✛ If number of distinct categories is >= 4 - acceptable
■ If none of the above criteria is met, do not proceed to the next step
■ If tolerance was known, GRR as a % of Tolerance should be used for decision as

explained in the previous slide

Continuous Data
■ GRR as a % of Tolerance( study var/Tolerance *100)

■ Study Var = SD * 5.15
✛ If GRR as % of tolerance is less than 10% - excellent measurement system
✛ If GRR as % of tolerance is between 10% to 30% - acceptable measurement system

However, discretion may be needed depending upon application of the process / equipment
✛ If GRR as % of tolerance is above 30% - unacceptable measurement system

You should not proceed to next DMAIC step. Simplify process / explore root cause

Tollgate - Measure
GRR Short Method
■ Detailed As-is Process
■ Units, Specifications & Defects
■ Number of OFE’s, if discrete data
■ GRR of the Measurement System Tollgate- Measure
■ Action plan, if GRR is not acceptable
■ Reduction of GRR to acceptable level

CASE STUDY
PAINT PEEL OFF

CASE STUDY

DM AIC
Step 4
Establish
Process
Baseline

DMAIC Steps
Step 0
Step 1
Define a Project D
Step 2
Step 3
Step 5
Step 6
A
Step 8
Step 9
I
Step 11
Step 12
C
4.1 Compute Process Sigma Multiple using collected data
4.11 Process Sigma Multiple for Discrete Data
4.12 Process Sigma Multiple for Continuous Data

4.1 Compute Process Sigma Multiple
Using Collected Data Cp-Cpk

Six Sigma Metrics
Customer Specification / Unit / Defect Definition 1
Discrete Data Continuous Data
Defects
Defects per Unit Location

(DPU) 2a 2b
Spread
Defects per Million Opportunities
(DPMO)
Process Sigma Multiple - Z 3

4.11 Process Sigma Multiple for Discrete Data

Business Problem
■ A project team wants to reduce the total waiting time taken in hospital (from reception
to discharge). Team has randomly collected the following data of last 3 weeks for the
waiting time for few patients/ customers :--
(Data given is in minutes)
USL decided by Management based on other hospitals study is decided at 60 Minutes max.

1 Customer Specification / Unit / Defect
■ Unit: Any customer/ patient coming for treatment
■ Customer Specifications: USL is 60 minutes
USL: Upper Specification Limit for a Performance Standard. Anything above this is a defect.
■ Defect Definition: Any customer whose total waiting time

exceeds 60 minutes

2a Discrete Data
■ Let’s treat this data as discrete
■ That means I would count the number of patients who had to wait more than 60
minutes
Customer 1 5 Customer 11 50 Customer 21 49
■ There are only 2 defects in 30 units

2a Defects per Unit
Number of defects found at any check-point

DPU =
Number of units processed at that check-point
■ So, DPU of the given data is = 2 / 30 = 0.067

2a Defects per Million Opportunities
Number of defects found at any check-point

DPO =
Number of units processed Number of opportunities
at that check-point * per unit to create a defect
Or, DPO = DPU/OFE
■ Let’s assume that the account opening process has 4 opportunities for error, so DPO=
DPU/OFE= 0.067/4 = 0.016667
DPMO = DPO * 1000,000
■ So, DPMO of the process is 0.067 * 1000000 / 4 = 16666.7

3 Sigma Multiple Calculation – Discrete Data
■ Every DPMO value relates to a particular Sigma Multiple or ZST value. In this case, this
process is working at 3.63 Sigma multiple
■ The same can be calculated by Given Excel template also.
ZST ZST
Z Calculation Template

4.12 Process Sigma Multiple for Continuous Data

2b Continuous Data
■ Let’s treat the data of the Hospital waiting Time as Continuous and calculate Base Line
Sigma
■ For calculating Baseline or Sigma Multiple ZST in continuous data, we need to

understand: Mean, std deviation & shape (Type of Distribution)

2b Continuous Data: Calculating Mean & Std Deviation by Minitab
■ Minitab Command for Calculating Mean & Std Deviation
Select Graphical
Summary
Data to be entered
in columns

2b Continuous Data: Calculating Mean & Std Deviation by Minitab
■ Minitab Command for Calculating Mean & Std Deviation
Select Column C1
where data is
entered
Click OK, Result will

come on screen

3 Sigma Multiple Calculation – Continuous Data
■ In this case, Mean = 57.73 minutes
■ Std dev : 63.54
■ USL : 60 Minutes
■ ZST can be calculated by the Excel Template.
■ This process is working at 1.54 Sigma multiple ( ZST = 1.54, or DPMO = 484750).
■ Can you notice the difference in ZST & DPMO values by treating the same data in
different way. What is the message?
Z calculation template

3 Effect of Shape/ Distribution on ZST Calculation – Continuous Data
■ The DPMO & ZST value depends on a symmetrical probability distribution, known as
Normal Distribution.
■ If the data points are not following the Normal Distribution, we can’t predict
correctly ZST & DPMO of the process by Mean & Std deviation, using the same
Excel template
■ So, it is must to understand the Normal Distribution & the test of Normality before
establishing the Baseline of the process

Introduction of Normal Distribution

Introduction to Normal Distribution
■ Developed by astronomer Karl Gauss

Tool
■ Most prominently used distribution in statistics
■ Most of the physical phenomenon, under normal conditions follow Normal
Normal Distribution
Distribution. E.g;
✛ Human characteristics such as weights, heights & IQ’s
✛ Physical process outputs such as yields
✛ Waiting time, cycle time, file retrieval time
✛ Salary distribution & most of the applicable cases in your projects

Introduction to Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution with Figure 3.01
Mean =100
Standard Deviation = 10 1 unit
of
standard S.D
deviation
- ∞ + ∞
70 80 90 100 110 120 130
■ It’s a Probability Distribution, illustrated as N ( µ, σ )

■ Simply put, a probability distribution is a theoretical frequency distribution
■ Higher frequency of values around the mean & lesser & lesser at values away from mean
■ Continuous & symmetrical
■ Tails asymptotic to X-axis
■ Bell shaped
■ Total area under the Normal curve = 1

Prediction based on Normal Distribution
Figure 3.02
- ∞ + ∞
µ
- 1σ + 1σ
68.26%
- 2σ + 2σ
95.46%
- 3σ + 3σ
99.73%
- 4σ + 4σ
99.9937%
- 5σ + 5σ
99.99943%
- 6σ + 6σ
99.999998%

Example
■ It’s found that time in solving a problem by IT Helpdesk follow a normal distribution with mean
of 250 min & standard deviation of 23. What is the probability that they will take more than 300
mins to solve its next job?
250 300
300 - 250
Z= = 2.17
23
Looking up Appendix 1 for Normal Distribution Table,

we find that Z value of 2.17 covers an area of 0.98499 under itself
Thus, the probability that the Helpdesk may solve problem between 0 & 300 is 98.5%
& thus, chance of IT team taking more than 300 mins is 1.5%

Class Exercise
■ ABC courier company promises overnight deliveries to its customers. However, there
have been several customer complaints regarding late deliveries. The operations
manager wants to re-look at the feasibility of delivering overnight (within 8 hours). He
studied the past trend & found that delivery time had a mean of 7 hours with a standard
deviation of 3 hours.
Help the manager by finding out the following for him:
a. Probability of delivering within 8 hours
b. Maximum number of hours within which 99.5% of deliveries can be made
c. How much is the probability that deliveries could be made within 3-5 hours?

Solving by Minitab

Solving by Minitab
Mean &
Std Dev.
This will
store the
results.

Solving by Minitab
hrs probability
8 0.630559
3 0.091211
5 0.252493
Answers:
a. Probability of delivering within 8 hours= 63.0559%
c. Probability that deliveries could be made within 3-5 hours is 0.252493-0.091211,

or 16.12%

Solving by Minitab
Solving part c. of the problem
Click OK & you’ll get this result
Inverse Cumulative Distribution

Function
Normal with mean = 7.00000 and

standard deviation = 3.00000
P( X <= x ) x
0.9950 14.7275
So, 99.5% deliveries can be

made in 14.7275 hrs

Assessing Normality
■ All this while, we have assumed the population to be normally distributed
■ We must test the normality assumption before calculating baseline
Minitab Command:
Stat - Basic Statistics – Graphical summary (Se Anderson- Darling Test results)
Summary for waiting time
Anderson-Darling Normality Test
A-Squared 0.66
P-V alue 0.025
Mean 38.750
StDev 22.603
Variance 510.917
Skewness -1.94435
Kurtosis 3.82913
N 4
Minimum 5.000
1st Quartile 15.750
Median 48.500
3rd Q uartile 52.000
10 20 30 40 50 Maximum 53.000
95% Confidence I nterval for Mean
2.783 74.717 P-value > 0.05 indicates data is normal.
95% Confidence I nterval for Median
Here, p-value is less than 0.05, so data is
5.000 53.000
95% Confidence I nterval for StDev non-normal
95% Confidence I ntervals
12.805 84.278
Mean
Median
0 20 40 60 80

Dealing with Non-Normal data
■ What if the P-value is less than 0.05?
■ In such cases, we do the data analysis by the Tools like Histogram, control charts, etc. Tool
Else transform the data points by Box Cox Transformation.
■ Box Cox Transformation & CLT are not in the GB trg scope. Your BB will support
you, if you face non-normal data.
Transformations
Appendix 1 – Normal Distribution Table
Z
Area Below +ZLT

Appendix 1 – Normal Distribution Table (contd.)
Z
Area Below +ZLT

DM AIC
Step 5
Define
Performance
Goals

DMAIC Steps
Step 0
Step 1
Define a Project D
Step 2
Step 3
Step 5
Step 6
A
Step 8
Step 9
I
Step 11
Step 12
C
Improvement Paths in Process Sigma Multiple
■ Mutually signed-off change in specification limits

✛ It’s not a process improvement
■ Shifting the mean
■ Reducing the variance

5.1 Perform Entitlement & Benchmarking Exercise
5.2 Establish Process Improvement Goal by p-value/ confidence band concept
5.3 Review Financial Benefits & revise improvement target, if required

5.1 Perform Entitlement &
Benchmarking Exercise

Process Entitlement
■ Process entitlement is the best performance possible from a process
■ Process entitlement is measured based upon the controllable X’s
■ One must understand the entitlement definition before setting a goal-line
■ If current process capability is way below entitlement, gradual improvement is

required

Entitlement on Cycle Time
■ A process cycle time typically is made up of value & non-value added activities
■ Time for all value added activities is considered as “Minimum cycle time”, even that
can be reduced in certain cases
■ Entitlement is computed as Minimum cycle time plus buffer
5 12 3 17 4 15 4
Process Baseline V NV NV NV V V NV
5 4 15
Minimum Cycle
Time V V V
5 4 15
Process Entitlement V B B V B V

Example of Cycle time in CFPM
■ Teams can use this structure for processes that move across functions
Step
Function 1 Step 5
4
See Cycle time also. Average

time & Range given. Entitlement
Step 3 0.2, 0.1-
will be min. cycle time of each
0.5Hrs
Function 2 step + some buffer
Step 2 1.2, 1-
1.5Hrs
Step 1 Step 8 End

Function 3
4.5, 4-6
Hrs
Step 6 Step 7
Function 4

Benchmarking
■ Benchmarking is about looking at others for superior methods Tool
■ Others may include suppliers, competitors, customers or even a different industry
■ Benchmarking could be done both on means as well as ends
Benchmarking
■ Types of benchmarking
✛ Internal
✛ Functional
✛ Competitive

Why Benchmarking?
■ Clear demonstration of ‘why to improve’
■ Sense of urgency & competition
■ Outside-in thinking

Types of Benchmarking
■ Internal
✛ Yields good results for a diversified organization
✛ Data is easier to collect
✛ Issues of internal bias & limited focus
■ Functional
✛ Regardless of industry
✛ Needs customization
✛ Requires more effort
■ Competitive
✛ Comparable practices
✛ Direct impact on business
✛ Easier buy-in
✛ Data is difficult to collect

Steps in Benchmarking
■ Identify the practice to be benchmarked
■ Establish measures of benchmarking
■ Identify benchmarking criteria
■ Identify benchmarking partners
■ Identify benchmarking resources

✛ Meetings / interviews
✛ Literature
✛ Surveys
■ Develop data collection plan
■ Collect & Analyze data
■ Develop recommendations
■ Implement & monitor

Visualizing Gaps Gap analysis
■ RADAR charts
Logistics
Manufacturing Sourcing
Company A 0
Inventory 6 Warehousing
Forecasting

5.2 Establish Process Improvement Goal p-
value & confidence band concept

Key Concepts Setting of Goal
■ If the existing process has to be improved, then the improvement goal should be
chosen only after proving statistically that it can be achieved only due to change,
& not by chance , I.e; the probability of achieving the goal with the current process
should be very low (generally <5%)
■ In Minitab, Graphical summary command is used to identify the right target, that is
outside of 95% probability band of current data set.(Target can be set on mean as well
as std deviation)
Summary for waiting time
Anderson-Darling Normality Test
A-Squared 0.66
P-V alue 0.025
Mean 38.750
StDev 22.603
Variance 510.917
Skewness
Kurtosis
-1.94435
3.82913
Any value, outside
N 4
this band will be a
Minimum 5.000
1st Quartile
Median
15.750
48.500
good target, as the
10 20 30 40 50
3rd Q uartile
Maximum
52.000
53.000
chances of getting
95% Confidence I nterval for Mean
2.783 74.717
it by current
95% Confidence I nterval for Median process is <5%
5.000 53.000
95% Confidence I nterval for StDev
95% Confidence I ntervals
12.805 84.278
Mean
Median
0 20 40 60 80

5.3 Review Financial Benefits & Revise
Improvement Target if Required

Key Concepts
■ Sometimes, at this step, project teams may set aggressive targets to justify the project selection
■ However, one must understand that such steps may result in abandoning the project half-way
■ Worst still, it sets a bad precedence & de-motivates the team members
■ Knowledge about the true behavior of the process is limited at the time of project selection &
hence, benefits expected may be grossly approximated
■ After setting the improvement target, project team must arrive at an accurate estimate of benefits
with Finance & take the sign-off from Champion to proceed
■ Sometimes, project teams may need to re-visit step 5.2 depending upon the Champion’s
expectations

DM AIC
Step 6
Identify
Variation
Sources

DMAIC Steps
Step 0
Step 1
Define a Project D
Step 2
Step 3
Step 5
Step 6
A
Step 8
Step 9
I
Step 11
Step 12
C
Means & Ends of a Process
■ So far, we have focused on the process output ‘Y’

✛ Unit
✛ Specifications
✛ Defects
✛ Baseline
✛ Target
■ Variation / Change in ‘Y’ is due to X’s
■ In other words, defect observed in output ‘Y’ is due to some X’s not being controlled
■ In this step, we identify the factors that contribute to variation in the process output ‘Y’
■ Another objective of this step is to separate the vital few X’s from trivial many

Means & Ends of a Process
Y = f ( X1, X2, X3……Xn )
Y X
Dependent Independent
Process Output Process Input / Step
Effect Cause
Symptom Problem
Monitor Control

Generating & Prioritizing X’s
■ Identifying & prioritizing X’s could be done using both non-statistical & statistical tools
■ Identification tools include (non-statistical basis)

✛ Experience of process doers
✛ Brainstorming & Multi-voting Focus on identifying problem areas
✛ Process mapping
✛ Fishbone Focus on identifying potential root causes
■ Prioritization tools include

✛ Pareto Diagram
✛ Correlation (for a single X)

✛ Regression (for multiple X’s)
✛ Chi-square test Focus on prioritizing potential root causes
✛ ANOVA
✛ Failure Mode & Effect Analysis (FMEA)

Identification Tools
■ Brainstorming & Multi-voting is a structured methodology to collect responses from a

group & arrive at a short-list
✛ Even though it provides a short-list, it’s not an effective prioritization tool because short-listing
is not done on any mathematical basis
■ Use of Process mapping requires studying the micro as-is process mapped in step 2
earlier & walking through it
■ Fishbone relates an ‘effect’ to its ‘cause’ by drawing a tree diagram

Brainstorming & Multi-voting
■ Identify a focus group that possess knowledge & experience about the process
being improved
Tool
■ Brainstorm & generate a list of X’s that may cause variation in the process
■ Let’s assume that number of members in the focus group is 5 & they generate 20 X’s
Brainstorming & Multi-voting

■ Each member can give one vote each to each of the 20 X’s (he may not give
votes to some X’s)
■ Count the number of total votes given, say, it’s 60
■ Take 50% of 60, i.e. 30 & list top X’s whose vote count adds upto 30
■ Say there are 7 X’s whose votes count upto 30
■ Give each member 4 votes (50% of ideas short-listed in the previous step) & repeat
the exercise of casting votes upto this step
■ Stop when number of X’s comes to 4-5, or a pre-determined level

Multi-voting Example
■ Below table illustrates the number of group members & total ideas (X’s) generated
■ Now each member gives votes to ideas (maximum one vote to each idea) & below is
the vote distribution for ideas
■ Top ideas whose vote count adds upto 32 are as below (30 is not possible), there are
7 such ideas

Multi-voting Example
■ Take these 7 ideas for further round of multi-voting
■ Give each member 4 votes (round off 50% of 7 to next higher integer) & ask them to distribute
these 4 votes among these 7 ideas. Below could be the distribution in this fresh round of voting
■ Take top ideas whose vote count adds upto 9
■ This list is manageable

Points to Remember in Brainstorming
■ All ideas are important, don’t out rightly reject any idea
■ Participation should be ensured from all team members
■ To ensure this, project teams could use the round-robin method of idea generation
■ It’s advised to use the Black Belt as the facilitator here

Fishbone
■ Also called “Cause & Effect’ or ‘Ishikawa’ diagram

Tool
■ Focus of Fishbone is to arrive at the root causes of the problem areas identified
through multi-voting / process mapping
■ It works on the principal of asking ‘why’ to each cause till you reach the ‘root cause’
■ For example, if one of the problem areas identified in the pizza delivery process
Fishbone
was ‘Wrong customer details’ for the defect of ‘Order not paid for’, a fishbone
can be prepared on identifying the root cause for this problem
■ Why was the building getting yellow?

How to Construct a Fishbone
■ Review the problem statement / defect definition
■ Brainstorm & identify possible causes
■ Sort causes into reasonable clusters
■ Choose the clusters & name them into big bones
■ Check the logical flow of cause and effect

Fishbone Example FBD
CRM malfunction Error in Listening

No
Lack of training maintenance
Printer error on listening skills Problem with
CRM not saving the instrument
data properly Rough
handling
Wrong Customer
Backbone Details
No credit card verification
Root-cause 1
Foul order No cross-check
Root-cause 2

Key Concepts
■ It’s difficult to judge how many levels one needs to explore in a fishbone
■ Sometimes project teams may hit the root-cause at multi-voting / process mapping
level, but they may do a further root-cause for the sake of it
■ In such cases, it is always a good idea to see if there is further scope for exploring by
asking ‘why’
■ Always remember that we are trying to identify controllable X’s, what can not
be controlled – can not be a root-cause
■ One must be able to see the effect on ‘Y’ when values / levels of root-causes are
changed

6.2 Separate Vital Few from Trivial
Many for Further Screening

Prioritization Tools
■ Some teams may do a multi-voting here, at the output of root-cause analysis
■ Pareto diagram works on the 80:20 rule of 20% causes contributing to 80% of defects
■ Co-relation & Regression help in identifying the movement of continuous ‘Y’ with
respect to continuous ‘X’
■ ANOVA & Chi-square help in identifying the movement of continuous / discrete ‘Y’
with respect to discrete ‘X’
■ Failure Mode & Effect Analysis (FMEA) identifies the process failure modes &
assigns a number to it that helps to prioritize the actionables
Success of all prioritization tools depends upon data collection

Pareto Diagram
■ A graphical tool for ranking causes form most significant (Vital Few) to least significant (Trivial many).
■ Based on Pareto principle, which was first defined by J.M Juran in 1950. Pareto principle was made after 19th Tool
century Italian economist V. Pareto (1897). Most effects come from relatively few causes. Also known as
80:20 Principle.
■ Pareto diagram indicates which area should be taken up first in eliminating defects and improving operations.
■ Example:Suppose a person identifies multiple root-causes of reaching his office late.

Now he is not sure where to focus so that he reduces the occurrence of
reaching late by minimum 50%.
Pareto
■ He has identified following root causes
✛ Woke up late
✛ Clothes not ready
✛ Breakfast not ready
✛ Bus not coming on time
✛ Traffic jam
✛ Bus waiting for other employees
■ He collects data on how frequent each of the root cause is & constructs a Pareto

Constructing a Pareto in Minitab
■ STAT > QUALITY TOOLS > PARETO CHART

Pareto Diagram
Frequencies of root causes for reaching office late Pareto Ex
70 100
60
80
50
Percent
60
Count
40
30 40
20
20
10
0 0
e
im y ady i ng
o nt ead l at
e j am re it
i ng tr up ic ot wa
n o aff tn Bus
com he
s oke Tr a s
t ot W kf
no Cl ea
s Br
Bu
Count 25 18 15 6 5 2
Percent 35.2 25.4 21.1 8.5 7.0 2.8
Cum % 35.2 60.6 81.7 90.1 97.2 100.0

Other Prioritization tools
■ So far, we have not used any statistical tool to prioritize X’s.
■ Depending upon the data characteristics of Y & X, we can choose the appropriate tool
Correlation
Continuous & ANOVA
Regression
Y
Identify
opportunities for
Discrete converting ‘Y’ Chi-square
into a continuous
one or use FMEA
Continuous Discrete
X

Correlation – Association between Variables
■ If we want to associate ‘Y’ with a single ‘X’, we can use correlation

Tool
■ Correlation is about predicting the movement in values in ‘Y’ when ‘X’ changes
■ Statistical significance of that movement is denoted by correlation coefficient ‘r’
■ ‘r’ is always between –1 & +1
Correlation
✛ Positive value of ‘r’ means direction of movement in both variables is same
✛ Negative value of ‘r’ means direction of movement in both variables is inverse
✛ Zero value of ‘r’ means no correlation between the two variables
■ Higher the value of ‘r’, stronger the correlation between ‘Y’ & ‘X‘
■ An ‘r’ value of > + 0.85 or < - 0.85 indicates a strong correlation

Correlation Levels
r = 0.05 r = 0.50
6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
0 6 12 0 6 12
8 10
6 8
6
4
4
2 2
0 0
0 6 12 0 6 12
r = 0.95 r = – 0.95
■ Correlations of 0.5 or below are hard to see
■ Correlation measures the linear association between the output (Y) and one
input variable (X) only

Using Minitab for Correlation

Regression
■ While correlation tells us only about the direction of movement, it does not
throw much light on degree of movement in one variable with respect to Tool
movement in another
■ Regression of ‘Y’ on ‘X’ results in a transfer function equation that can be used to
predict the value of ‘Y’ for given values of ‘X’
Y = f(X)
Regression
■ ‘Y’ can be regressed on one or more X’s simultaneously
✛ Simple linear regression is for one X
✛ Multiple linear regression is for more than one X’s

Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)
■ Multiple regression regresses ‘Y’ on more than one X’s simultaneously
■ It is similar to Two-way ANOVA we have discussed in step 5, except for the difference
that X’s used in ANOVA were discrete
■ The approach is similar & a linear multiple regression equation looks as follows:
Y = A + B1X1 + B2X2 + ………+ BnXn… + C
where Y = Dependent variable / output / response

X1 = First independent variable / input / predictor
X2 = Second independent variable / input / predictor

A = Intercept of fitted line on Y axis
B1 & B2 = Regression coefficients / Slopes of the fitted plane on two axes
C = Error in the model

Multiple Regression Example
■ Suppose we are trying to predict rent of an apartment based on the size of the
apartment & its distance from the main commercial area. We gather the following
information as below. If you are looking for a two-bedroom apartment 2 miles from the
main area, what rent should you expect to pay?
Y X1 X2

Using Minitab for MLR Example
■ STAT > REGRESSION > REGRESSION
You can enter

multiple
factors here

Multiple Regression Example
■ Minitab gives the following output:

Regression Analysis
The regression equation is
Rent = 852 + 1381 * Rooms

Predictor Coef StDev T P
Constant 852 1146 0.74 0.511
Rooms 1381.0 259.5 5.32 0.013
Distance -5.4 142.1 -0.04 0.972
S = 975.3 R-Sq = 91.5% R-Sq(adj) = 85.8%
Analysis of Variance
Source DF SS MS F P
Regression 2 30665301 15332650 16.12 0.025
Residual Error 3 2853449 951150
Total 5 33518750
■ For a 2 bedroom apartment 2 miles away from main area, expected rent could be INR
3614 per month
Points to Remember in Regression
■ Don’t extrapolate beyond the range
✛ Project teams get tempted to extrapolate the results beyond the range of collected data. In
one of the previous examples, higher R&D expenditures may not see same
increase in
profits, & hence, the regression equation between profit & R&D expense may
change
Range 1 Range 2
Profit
R&D Expense

■ Don’t assume causation
✛ Regression equation denotes a relationship only. This in no way means that a change in one
variable causes change in another. If number of schools & incidents of crime in a
city go up
together, there may be a relationship, but no causation. The increase in both
factors could be
due to third factor – population.
✛ In other words, both of them may be dependent variables themselves

Number
of schools
Population Incidents
of Crime
Incidents Number of Schools

of Crime
Population

■ Don’t choose X’s that are correlated

✛ Regression assumes that all X’s are mutually independent variables. If one of the X’s
depends on another X, it may result in a good regression model (ANOVA P-value),
but P-
values of the regression coefficients may be insignificant
✛ That means a model with ‘Y’ on any of these X’s may be good, but not when both the X’s are
included in the model

■ Regression may not give you a good R2 :
✛ If Xs chosen in the model are not the ‘real’ ones – you may need to look at residual plots
✛ If X’s have interactions
✛ In case of multiple X’s having a curvilinear relationship with ‘Y’
■ Regression results that defy theory / conventional logic, should be re-validated with
DOE in next phase of IMPROVE

Class Exercise
■ Below are several X’s identified for runs scored by Indian cricket team while batting
first. Run regression & decide which X’s would you choose for further study of
causation?
Match Fee Average age of Average team exp.

Runs scored Training hours
(per player) team (matches played)
(Y) (X1)
(X2) (X3) (X4)
285 9.5 25000 28 300
302 10 20000 26.5 298
352 11 28000 25 302
230 7.5 35000 29 325
168 5.5 35000 31 326
272 9 25000 28.5 285
269 9 20000 28 263
201 6.7 25000 30 301
275 9 20000 29 301
289 9.5 20000 28.5 302
302 10 20000 26 302
198 6 25000 30 301
267 9 28000 28.5 285

ANOVA
■ ANOVA is used to short-list potential discrete X’s for a continuous ‘Y’

Tool
■ We can use one-way ANOVA & see the variation in ‘Y’ for one ‘X’ at a time
■ We can use two-way ANOVA for more than one X
ANOVA
ANOVA Example W/S Zn ANOVA
■ A restaurant puts great emphasis on customer satisfaction. For some weeks, the
ratings seemed to suffer & the manager tried to identify the factors that could be
causing this. He chooses two of the potential discrete factors as ‘team’ that serves the
customer & ‘place of sitting’ in terms of outside or inside. Which factor is vital?
Team Place Rating

1 In 3.4
2 In 4.5
1 In 3.2
2 In 4.8
1 In 3.6
2 In 4.2
1 In 4.1
2 In 4.6
1 In 3.1
2 In 5
1 Out 3.5
2 Out 4.2
1 Out 4.6
2 Out 4.9
1 Out 3.5
2 Out 4.1
1 Out 4.3
2 Out 4.7
1 Out 3.4

ANOVA Example
Two-way Analysis of Variance
Source DF SS MS F P
Team 1 3.281 3.281 17.38 0.001
Place 1 0.013 0.013 0.07 0.800
Interaction 1 0.544 0.544 2.88 0.109
Error 16 3.020 0.189
Total 19 6.857
■ Team that serves the food seems to be more important than place of sitting
■ In other words, two levels of the team, 1 & 2, are significantly different in their average ratings (between
'team' variation)
■ However, error is quite high (within ‘team’ variation) which implies that there are other factors
contributing to variation in ratings

General Linear Model (GLM) in ANOVA
■ While using two-way ANOVA, Minitab demands a balanced design between X's
■ If design is unbalanced, teams can use General Linear Model
■ GLM can also be used if there are more than two X's

ANOVA : General Linear Model Example
■ Suppose Sales figure of a company depends on ‘3’ factors:
✛ No. of Advertisement
✛ Free service camps
✛ Gender of Sales Representative
■ We can use General Linear Model to study > 2 factors at a time.
sales figure advertisement free service sales representative sales figure advertisement free service sales representative
10 10 Y M 10 10 Y M
12 20 Y M 13 20 Y M
14 10 N M 12 10 N M
15 20 N M 14 20 N M
11 10 Y M 13 10 Y M
13 20 Y M 16 20 Y M
9 10 N M 8 10 N M
12 20 N M 12 20 N M
17 10 Y F 18 10 Y F
22 20 Y F 23 20 Y F
24 10 N F 19 10 N F
28 20 N F 22 20 N F
18 10 Y F 18 10 Y F
25 20 Y F 20 20 Y F
22 10 N F 22 10 N F
24 20 N F 24 20 N F

Minitab Command: Stat - ANOVA - General Linear Model

Minitab gives following output:
General Linear Model: sales figure versus advertisemen, free service, ...
Factor Type Levels Values

advertis fixed 2 10 20
free ser fixed 2 N Y
sales re fixed 2 F M
Analysis of Variance for sales fi, using Adjusted SS for Tests
Source DF Seq SS Adj SS Adj MS F

P
advertis 1 78.12 78.12 78.12 20.83
0.000
free ser 1 15.12 15.13 15.13 4.03
0.056
sales re 1 722.00 722.00 722.00 192.53
0.000
advertis*free ser 1 2.00 2.00 2.00 0.53
0.472
free ser*sales re 1 21.12 21.12 21.12 5.63
0.026
advertis*sales re
Conclusion: Advertisement, 1
Sales 3.13
Representative 3.13 3.13
& their interaction 0.83
is significant
0.370
for sales.
advertis*free ser*
sales re 1 2.00 2.00 2.00 0.53
0.472
Points to Remember in ANOVA
■ As in Regression, do not assume cause & effect in ANOVA also
■ In the previous example of the satisfaction ratings of the customers, the root cause may
be that two teams are serving different cuisines which are prepared by two different
chefs. Hence, satisfaction ratings for two teams are just an indicator of the variation. It
may not mean that team 2 is more efficient than team 1 in terms of serving food.
■ When you use multiple X’s in ANOVA, they have to be mutually independent

Chi-Square
■ Chi-square is used to short-list potential discrete X’s for a discrete ‘Y’
■ Usually, it is used to decide upon new policy decisions & new process steps while
exploring their relationship with the defect definition

Chi-Square Example
■ A raw material sourcing team is evaluating the relationship of on time supplies with the
supplier used. It collects data on two suppliers as follows. Should they switch
completely to supplier 2 to improve the supplies?
■ Using Minitab, we get the p-value of 0.036 that says that the difference is significant
■ However, the root cause may be that supplier 2 uses a better transporter, & hence it
may be worthwhile to ask supplier 1 to use the same transporter for your supplies

Failure Mode & Effect Analysis (FMEA)
■ FMEA is a simple tool to prioritize the failure modes & actions

Tool
■ By understanding why and how we fail, we can plan for success
■ It works on the belief that proactiveness saves time
■ Typically, FMEA is applied on the output of root-cause analysis, & is a better tool for
FMEA
focus / prioritization as compared to multi-voting
■ We shall focus on Process FMEA (Design FMEA is used in designing products)

FMEA Concept & Output
Effect
Severity
Failure Risk Action

Process / Product
Cause Priority Plan
Characteristics Mode
Number
Occurrence
Control
Detectability
■ Risk Priority Number (RPN) = S*O*D
■ Severity, Occurrence & Detectability are measured on a scale of 1-10

FMEA Concept & Output
■ Process / Product characteristics - Purpose of the product or Process
■ Failure Mode - How can the product / process fail to function?
■ Effects - Which effects are most severe to customer?
■ Causes - Which causes are most likely to occur?
■ Controls - Ability for current controls to detect causes?
■ RPN - Which high risk cause we work on first?
■ Action Plan - Recommended actions & responsibilities

Scales of ‘SOD’ - Severity
■ Severity is the seriousness of the effect of the failure mode on the customer
■ Rating Scale:

Scales of ‘SOD’ - Occurrence
■ Occurrence is the probability that a specific cause will result in the particular failure mode
■ Rating Scale:

Scales of ‘SOD’ - Detectability
■ Detectability is the probability that a particular cause will be detected
■ Rating Scale:

FMEA Table Roaster
Throughput
FMEA Table

FMEA Summary
■ Usually, FMEA is used to prioritize root-causes for discrete defect definitions on ‘Y’
where Regression / ANOVA are not possible
■ Typically, final part of the FMEA table in terms of ‘recommended actions’ & improved
SOD rating gets filled during IMPROVE & CONTROL phases
■ Recommended action is nothing but a counter-measure to eliminate/ transition a root-

cause that will be studied in step 9 of DMAIC
■ New SOD ratings shall be given only at the time of project closure when counter-
measures would have been implemented & effect seen on “failure mode”
■ Project teams must review the RPN’s periodically

Key Concepts
■ Even though, project teams may identify potential X’s using Brainstorming / Fishbone,
& use Regression / ANOVA / Chi-square to prioritize potential X’s, they may still end
up with X’s that explain the variation in ‘Y’, but do not really cause that variation
■ However, they may just be the real causes
■ The real output of this step is to short-list potential X’s that may have a causal
relationship with ‘Y’, because a relationship between ‘Y’ & ‘X’ is a necessary but not
sufficient condition for cause & effect
■ If an ‘X’ is not a significant factor for ‘Y’, it should not be explored further, it is one of
those trivial many X’s project team would have identified
■ A good job done in this step reduces the work in further steps
■ We check for causation in the first step of Improve module through experimentation
techniques

Tollgate - Analyze
■ Baseline Process Sigma multiple / DPMO / Mean / Variance
■ Target Process Sigma multiple / DPMO / Mean / Variance with statistical significance
■ Prioritized list of potential X’s that contribute to variation in ‘Y’
Tollgate - Analyze

DMA C I
Step 7
Explore
Potential
Causes

DMAIC Steps
Step 0
Step 1
Define a Project D
Step 2
Step 3
Step 5
Step 6
A
Step 8
Step 9
I
Step 11
Step 12
C
Explore Potential X’s for Causation

Recall Step 6: Creating a List of X’s & Prioritization
Brainstorming Regression, FMEA
FMEA
x1 x7 = 38%
x2 x6 = 27% Vital X’s
x3 x2 = 12%
x4
x5 Exploration of x9 = 4%
the y-x
x6 x10 = 4%
relationship
x7 x5 = 2%
Trivial X’s σ error
x8 x1
x9 x3
x10 x4
x11 x8 = 13%
Fishbone x12 x11
x12

Why Step-7
■ In Step 6, potential X’s were identified with a possible prioritization as to their

importance in controlling Y
■ Step 7 provides tools to explore and uncover the vital X’s and how much impact each
X has on the response Y.
■ As against historical data in step 6, step 7 uses proactively collected information , this helps in
establishing a Cause & Effect relationship between X’s & Y.
■ In order to demonstrate definite improvement in the process, project teams must use a tool which
✛ is structured
✛ is proactive towards data collection
✛ is statistically capable
✛ can quantify the transfer function
✛ Can segregate the vital few X’s
■ Design of experiments (DOE) is one such tool

Regression Vs DOE:
■ Regression also gives a transfer function, However, since regression was performed on
historical data in step 6 & not on all vital X’s together, transfer functions obtained in
step 6 were only used to see the extent of relationship between ‘Y’ & a potential ‘X’
■ In this step, we perform DOE to further confirm the statistical relevance of only those
vital X’s (preferably) that were short-listed in step 6
■ DOE also confirms the causation that regression doesn’t

✛ Recollect the example of incidents of crime & number of schools in step 6. If we conduct an
experiment & change the number of schools, obviously, incidents of crime won’t go
up

Design of Experiments (DOE)
■ Definition
Tool
✛ Experimental Design is a structured proactive process for investigating the
relationship between input and output factors. Multiple input factors are considered
and
Design of experiments (DOE)

controlled simultaneously to ensure that the effects on the (multiple) output
responses are
causal and statistically significant
■ Origin
✛ 1920’s with Sir R Fisher
✛ Has an agriculture based nomenclature, e.g. treatments

Why DOE: Traditional Vs. Planned Experiments
One-at-a-time Planned- DOE

• No guarantee of finding optimum • Optimum is methodically sought,
statistically verified and documented
• Interaction of variables can • Interactions of variables are
produce incorrect conclusions incorporated into the design
•Time-consuming and inefficient • Efficient and effective
■ Interaction is defined as the effect of one factor ‘X1’ on the ‘Y’ being dependent on which
level of another factor ‘X2’ is chosen
✛ For example, al low speeds, fuel efficiency may not get affected by low coolant level. But, at
high speeds, if coolant is low, fuel efficiency may come down drastically
✛ Thus, understanding of combined effects of factors is very important

✛ Cook Example ?

DOE Nomenclature
DOE
Response
Factors
Levels
Design

DOE Nomenclature
■ Response
✛ Response is the outcome of the experiment conducted at a combination of factors at given
levels. The response is the ‘Y’ we intend to improve
■ Factors
✛ A factor is one of the controlled or uncontrolled variables whose influence upon the response
is being studied in the experiment. Factors are also known as the X’s
✛ A factor may be Continuous/ quantitative, e.g., temperature in degrees, time in seconds
✛ A factor may also be Discrete/ qualitative, e.g., different machines, different doctors, different
nationalities, clean or not clean, etc.

DOE Nomenclature
■ Levels
✛ The “levels” of a factor are the values of the factor being examined in the experiment. For
quantitative factors, each chosen value becomes a level, e.g., if the experiment is to be
conducted at two different temperatures, then the factor ‘temperature’ has two “levels” –
say HOT & COLD.
✛ In a qualitative factor, the single factor “cleanliness” may have two levels: CLEAN & NOT
CLEAN
■ Experiment Design
✛ The formal plan for conducting the experiment is called the “experiment design” (also the
“experiment pattern”)
✛ It includes the choices of the responses, factors, levels, blocks, and treatments and the use
of certain tools called planned grouping, randomization, replication

Types of Experiment Designs
Screening
& Optimization
Characterization
Full Factorial
Multi-level Experiments
2 Factorial
K
Composite Designs
Fractional Factorial
Step 7 Step 8
In GB Training only the 2k screening DOE is in scope.

Factorial Designs
■ Full Factorial Designs
✛ All possible combinations of the levels of all factors are studied. For example, a design with 3
factors at 3 levels would require 27 runs
✛ Becomes time & cost ineffective way of experimentation
✛ More appropriate in optimization stage
■ 2K Factorial Designs
✛ In most preliminary studies, only 2 levels are used for each of the ‘K’ factors
✛ There will be 8 runs for a 2 level-3 factor design (23)
✛ No. of Experiments=(Levels)FACTORS
Factorial designs form the foundation of DOE in DMAIC

The Simplest 2k Design – Two Level & Two Factor
High
Graphical Illustration B
Low
Low A High
Trial A B Response
1 - - ?
Tabular Illustration
2 + - ?
3 - + ?
4 + + ?

23 DOE: Two Level & Three Factor Design
High
Graphical Illustration B
High
Low
Low High C
A Low
Trial A B C
1 - - -
2 + - -
3 - + -
4 + + -
Tabular Illustration
5 - - +
6 + - +
7 - + +
8 + + +

Some DOE Settings in Designs
■ Repetition
✛ This is running the experiment twice on each trial combination, without changing the setting,
i.e. no other run in between
■ Replication
✛ This is running the experiment twice on each trial combination, but with a change of setting,
i.e. some other run in between
✛ Replicates should be used in 22 & 23 designs since number of trials is less
■ Randomization
✛ Runs are made in random order as opposed to a standard order to account for lurking
variables that change over time. Aim is to make your DOE more robust.

DOE example
■ A car owner wants to maximize his fuel efficiency. He has selected some X’s that he
thinks could be important & fixed their levels for the experimentation:--
✛ Coolant level levels 0.2 – 0.5 ml

✛ Average Speed levels 50 – 80 KM / HR
✛ Load levels 2–3 persons
✛ Oil levels HP – IBP brand
■ Deliverables
✛ Design a full factorial experiment with 2 replicates, no center points

✛ Give recommendations for vital X’s

Doing DOE in Minitab

Click On Design

Click On Factor

CLICK OK

DOE example
■ Conduct the actual experiment & Get the Response readings in the fuel efficiency
column. Update the same in Minitab
Coolant Speed Load Oil Fuel Efficiency
(ml) (KM/Hr) (Number of persons) (Brand) (KM/Litre)
5 0.2 50 3 HP 10.93
18 0.5 50 2 HP 14.65
28 0.5 80 2 IBP 3.68
16 0.5 80 3 IBP 3.74
4 0.5 80 2 HP 3.74
30 0.5 50 3 IBP 14.66
20 0.5 80 2 HP 3.74
15 0.2 80 3 IBP 5.85
6 0.5 50 3 HP 14.65
31 0.2 80 3 IBP 5.80
2 0.5 50 2 HP 14.61
8 0.5 80 3 HP 3.71
24 0.5 80 3 HP 3.71
26 0.5 50 2 IBP 14.70
25 0.2 50 2 IBP 10.95
32 0.5 80 3 IBP 3.67
11 0.2 80 2 IBP 5.78
29 0.2 50 3 IBP 10.89
14 0.5 50 3 IBP 14.67
22 0.5 50 3 HP 14.70
27 0.2 80 2 IBP 5.82
19 0.2 80 2 HP 5.76
7 0.2 80 3 HP 5.83
1 0.2 50 2 HP 10.87
23 0.2 80 3 HP 5.76
21 0.2 50 3 HP 10.86
13 0.2 50 3 IBP 10.88
10 0.5 50 2 IBP 14.66
9 0.2 50 2 IBP 10.94
17 0.2 50 2 HP 10.88
12 0.5 80 2 IBP 3.65
3 0.2 80 2 HP 5.77

Select response in this column & click ok

Interpreting results
Factorial Fit: Fuel efficiency versus Coolant, speed, load, oil
Estimated Effects and Coefficients for Fuel efficiency (coded units)
Term Effect Coef SE Coef T P
Constant 8.766 0.005029 1743.00 0.000
Coolant 0.836 0.418 0.005029 83.08 0.000
speed -8.031 -4.015 0.005029 -798.40 0.000
load 0.007 0.003 0.005029 0.68 0.504 What are significant factors?
oil 0.011 0.005 0.005029 1.06 0.307
Coolant*speed -2.927 -1.463 0.005029 -290.99 0.000
Coolant*load 0.003 0.002 0.005029 0.31 0.760
Coolant*oil -0.021 -0.010 0.005029 -2.05 0.057
speed*load 0.009 0.005 0.005029 0.93 0.365
speed*oil -0.014 -0.007 0.005029 -1.43 0.172
load*oil -0.009 -0.005 0.005029 -0.93 0.365
Coolant*speed*load -0.014 -0.007 0.005029 -1.43 0.172
Coolant*speed*oil -0.016 -0.008 0.005029 -1.55 0.140
Coolant*load*oil 0.012 0.006 0.005029 1.18 0.255
speed*load*oil 0.026 0.013 0.005029 2.55 0.022
Coolant*speed*load*oil 0.007 0.003 0.005029 0.68 0.504
S = 0.0284495 R-Sq = 100.00% R-Sq(adj) = 100.00%

DOE EXAMPLE
■ Let’s try one more DOE example

Using Past Data to validate DOE( Data Mining)
■ Historical data is a useful source of information for characterizing which input factors (X’s)
affect the CTQ’s. There are several issues associated with the use of historical data,
however if not accounted for, analysis of the data can lead to misleading if not erroneous
results. One issue is causality. One of the factors may be thought to be vital however if
all of the other X’s are not held constant or if historical information is not available on
these other settings, then it may not be clear which ‘X’ truly has the causal impact on ‘Y’.
A second issue is that historical data rarely covers the breadth of possibilities suggested
in a designed experiment
■ A method which helps to minimize the impact of the above two negative issues, while still
using historical data is called Data Mining. The first step in data mining is to formulate a
designed experiment and list the associated desired trial combinations. The historical
data list is then mined to find the data points that (nearly) correspond to the trials in the
proposed experiment. Only these data points are then used as responses in the mining
experiment, and analysis follows in the usual manner

DMA C I
Step 8
Establish
Variable
Relationship

DMAIC Steps
Step 0
Step 1
Define a Project D
Step 2
Step 3
Step 5
Step 6
A
Step 8
Step 9
I
Step 11
Step 12
C
Key Concepts
■ Vital few X’s were identified & characterized in step 7.
■ Step 8 attempts to establish the levels of these X’s that provide the desired
improvement in ‘Y’
■ For a target value of ‘Y’, the required level of ‘X’ can be determined analytically
■ Focus of step 8 is on optimization experiments. After choosing the level of ‘X’ (to give
the target value of ‘Y’), the process is checked to affirm the result
■ Even when a transfer function is well-defined, there are typically still trivial X’s affecting
the process. The aggregate level of their effect should be determined

8.1 Determine optimum levels of Vital Few X’s
✛ Confirm results
✛ Estimate noise levels of trivial X’s

8.1 Determine Optimum Levels of Vital
Few X’s

Simplex Method
■ A SIMPLEX is designed based on the direction of movement as suggested by the

coefficients of the vital X’s in screening DOE Tool
Both coefficients positive
Simplex Method
80
Speed 2 Possible directions
50
0.2 Coolant 0.5

One coefficient
positive, other negative

Transfer Function Enhancement Cycle
■ 2 level optimization - determining if “better levels” of performance exist

✛ Ascent / Descent Method
✛ Simplex Method
■ 3 level optimization – find the best place to operate when you are already in
the right area
Transfer Function Enhancement
Screening
Performance DOE
goal on ‘Y’
(2K, 2K-P )
2 level optimization 3 level optimization

Confirmation Runs
■ Set
✛ the vital X’s at their optimum level
✛ the trivial X’s at their most favorable level
■ Verify
✛ the predicted level of Y
✛ the noise/error in the process
■ Compute
✛ the new capability level

DMA C I
Step 9
Design
Operating
Limits

DMAIC Steps

D
Step 0

Step 5
Step 6
A
Step 8
Step 9
I
Step 11
Step 12
C
9.1 Determine operating limits of vital few X’s / Design Counter-measures
9.2 Map the new process
9.3 Perform resistance analysis

9.1 Determine Operating Limits of Vital
Few X’s / Design Counter-Measures

Defining Operating Limits
Y
Y = f (X)
USL
LSL
LOL UOL
X
XL XU
XT
Range of acceptable X values

Optimal X setting

Determining the Operating Limits
■ CASE I: Perfect Model with Zero Variability
Y = 20 + 2X
USL = 90
Can we calculate the limit on X.

T = 60
LSL = 45
X
XLSL XT XUSL

In real world we have to Buffer on Operating Limits
■ There are three major sources of variability to buffer against:
✛ Measurement variability on ‘Y’ step 3
✛ Model Error step 7 & 8
✛ Measurement variability on ‘X’ step 10

Buffering the Variability
Y
Measurement Variability in ‘Y’ & Model Error (other X’s)
Y = f (X)
USL
LSL
X
XL XLOL XUOL XU
Measurement Variability in ‘X’

Operating Limits for Multiple Y’s
Y1
X1
Y2
X1
■ If there is no overlapping region, all CTQ’s can not be fulfilled & project team should
seek help from BB & Champion to prioritize

Selecting the right Countermeasure

Counter-Measure Matrix
■ Counter Measure Matrix is used to arrive at action to be taken on a root cause that
would lead to the desired result Tool
■ If there are more than one counter-measure for a root cause, then the counter
measure is prioritized using three parameters
Counter-Measure Matrix
■ Each counter-measure is given a rating on a scale of 1-7 (higher the better) & overall
score is calculated by multiplying the 3 ratings, one with the best score is chosen
EXP

9.2 Map the New Process

Should-Be Process Mapping
■ New process of pizza delivery:
No
Enter
Call Yes
Customer calls customer details
Answered?
in the system
Take Yes Confirm Take

card Credit card? payment order
details type details
No
Deliver &
Confirm
Verify Despatch collect money,
all details
with bank order if non-credit card
again
customer

Should-Be Process Mapping
■ Once the best settings / operating limits are determined, it may be worthwhile to have a
re-look at the process
■ New operating limits / settings may need some extra steps, some steps to be scrapped,
or some steps to be performed differently

9.3 Perform Resistance Analysis
Your BB s will support in this

Tollgate - Improve
■ Vital Few X’s & their best settings
■ Operating Limits / Counter-Measures for each vital ‘X’
■ Should-be Process Map
■ SOP’s for new settings & training to operators, as needed
■ Action plan to counter possible resistance sources, if any
Tollgate- Improve

DMAI C
Step 10
Validate
Measurement System
for ‘X’

DMAIC Steps
Step 0
Step 1
Define a Project D
Step 2
Step 3
Step 5
Step 6
A
Step 8
Step 9
I
Step 11
Step 12
C
10.1 Perform GRR Study

Buffering the Variability
Y
Measurement Variability in ‘Y’ & Model Error (other X’s)
Y = f (X)
USL
LSL
X
XL XLOL XUOL XU
Measurement Variability in ‘X’

DMAI C
Step 11
Verify
Process
Improvement

11.1 Develop control mechanism
11.2 Prepare action plan to maintain X’s that are varying away from settings
11.3 Re-compute process baseline & verify against target

11.1 Develop Control Mechanism

Controlling the X’s
■ So far, we have identified the best settings for each of the vital ‘X’
■ The key now is to ensure that the X’s don’t vary away from the targeted setting
■ Process control is a crucial tool in ensuring that this Six Sigma project delivers lasting
benefits
■ Maintaining X’s at their target level can be done in two ways

✛ Detection (reactive) Why was change not detected?
✛ Prevention (proactive) Why did / would change occur?

Correction Loop
Prevention
Prevention &
Detection
Mistake-Proofing Statistical Process

Control

Mistake-Proofing (Poka-Yoke)
■ It is a technique to make errors difficult to happen, if not impossible

Tool
■ Ground Rules of Mistake Proofing
✛ Intelligence does not depend upon hierarchy
✛ Target tasks that require constant alert / vigilance / memory
Mistake-Proofing
✛ Look for cutting unproductive time to foster creativity
✛ Defects are not acceptable, in whatsoever small number
✛ It is best to make it impossible to do it wrong

Advantages of Mistake-Proofing
■ Easy to accomplish without any formal training
■ Removes repetitive tasks
■ Fosters creativity & value-addition
■ Ensures less defects

Mistake-Proofing Techniques - Examples
Technique Prevention Detection
Cameras that don’t click Air-conditioners trip when

SHUTDOWN if the shutter is on detect slight over-heating
ATM does not accept a Quality check at each

CONTROL card inserted wrongly point in the assembly
Car security system

WARNING alerting the driver that all Smoke detectors
doors are not closed

If Mistake-Proofing is Not Possible?
■ Provide guidelines
✛ Check-lists
✛ SOP’s
✛ Templates
■ Use visuals
✛ Color-codes
✛ Shapes

Class Exercise
■ Let’s collect individual responses:
1. Car owners complain that they often forget if the fuel tank hole is on the left or right side of the car.
2. A cold drink manufacturer wants to ensure that all bottles are filled with exactly the same quantity.
3. Commuters complain that ‘free left/ right’ is always blocked by the vehicles that have to go straight.
4. HR team of a company has found that employees only punch-in & don’t punch-out.
5. Bank customers complain that they find it difficult to keep track of cheques issued by them.
6. Administration team of a company finds that employees don’t switch-off lights while leaving.
7. A FMCG company has found that retailers don’t disburse the freebies to customers as due.
8. Credit card customers complain that they end up over-spending on their cards.
9. Subscribers to a cellular service company want to ensure they keep track of their missed calls even
after erasing from memory.

Statistical Process Control (SPC)
■ SPC was developed by Walter A. Shewhart in 1924

Tool
■ Historically, SPC has been used to monitor & control output ‘Y’
Statistical Process Control

■ In DMAIC, we apply SPC to control X’s (remember ‘Y’ is only monitored)
■ However, sometimes applying SPC to ‘Y’ can also be beneficial in detecting trends
■ About SPC
✛ Aids visual monitoring & controlling
✛ Depends heavily on data collection

Basics of Control Charts
■ Control charts are useful for tracking process statistics over time and detecting the
presence of special causes
■ A process is in control when most of the points fall within the bounds of the control
limits, and the points do not display any nonrandom patterns

Purpose of Control Limits
Special Cause Variation

UCL
CL
noi t ai r a V
es ua C no mmo C
LCL
Special Cause Variation
Process Control’ is inherent to process characteristics as against ‘Process

Capability’ which is measured as per outside targets & specifications

Purpose of Control Limits
0.135%
UCL = µ + 3σ
99.73% CL
LCL = µ - 3σ
0.135%
Out of control point
Control Limits define a probabilistic level

of occurrence of an ‘out of control’ point

Do Not Over-react to Change
Loading time
UCL
Excellent Work Change the transporter??
LCL
Distinguish between Noise & Change

Top Eight Indications of an Out of Control Process
1. A single point outside 3σ control limits
2. Nine points in a row on the same side of the centerline
3. Six points in a row, all increasing or all decreasing
4. Fourteen points in a row, alternating up and down
5. Two out of three successive points more than 2σ on the same side of the
centerline
6. Four out of five successive points beyond 1σ on the same side of the centerline
7. Fifteen points in a row within 1σ on either side of center line
8. Eight points in a row with none between 1σ on either side of center line

Choosing An Appropriate Control Chart
Continuous Data
Individual Data Points Subgroups

Pulling one sample at fixed frequency Taking periodic grouped data
Variability of individual Variability of average

I & MR characteristics over time characteristics over time
X&R

Choosing An Appropriate Control Chart
Discrete Data
Defectives Defects
P-chart U - chart
Rest of the Control Charts are in the BB training Scope

Continuous data Control Charts

I & MR Control Chart
■ Temperature of the cleaning agent is a vital ‘X’ to successfully meet the requirements
of the cleaning efficiency. This is monitored periodically to keep it within desired
operating range.
■ Data on temperature ( in 0C) is collected over several hours

I & MR Control Chart in Minitab
■ STAT > CONTROL CHARTS > I-MR
Click on OK

Select data columns
Go to I-MR
options for
activating the all
tests
Click on OK

Click on tests
Click on OK

Select all tests for special causes
Click on tests
Click on OK

I & MR Control Chart : Minitab Output
■ I-MRoutput:
Minitab gives the following Chart of Temperature
1
5 UCL=82.93
80
I ndividual Value
_
70 X=69.07
60
LCL=55.20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Observation
UCL=17.04
16
Moving Range
12
8
__
MR=5.21
4
0 LCL=0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Observation

X & R Control Chart
■ Let’s take data of the previous example only. Assume that the data on temperature was
collected using three different probes & below table gives three readings per hour, each
for one probe, over 5 hours (5 samples, each of sub-group size 3)

X & R Control Chart in Minitab
A new input is
now required –
sub-group size

X & R Control Chart in Minitab
A new input is
now required –
sub-group size

X & R Control Chart : Minitab Output
■ Xbar-R
Minitab gives the following Chart of Temperature
output
80
1
UCL=77.45
75
Sample Mean
_
_
70
X=69.07
65
LCL=60.69
60
1 2 3 4 5
Sample
UCL=21.09
20
Sample Range
15
10 _
R=8.19
5
0 LCL=0
1 2 3 4 5
Sample

Discrete data Control Charts

P Control Chart
■ Let’s try control chart for the varying sub-group size, i.e. number of items tested for
defectiveness varies from hour-to-hour

P Control Chart in Minitab
Click on OK

P Control Chart in Minitab
Click on OK

P Control Chart : Minitab Output
P Chart of P defectives
0.4
0.3 UCL=0.2906
Proportion
0.2
_
0.1 P=0.0944
0.0 LCL=0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Sample
Tests performed with unequal sample sizes
U Control Chart
■ Let’s plot a U chart. Let’s assume that the customer service department administers
two questionnaires on employees, one with 10 & another with 20 questions, i.e. sub-
group size varies. They have to be answered in ‘yes / no’. Each question that is
answered in a ‘no’ is a defect.

U Control Chart

U Control Chart : Minitab Output
U Chart of U defects
0.4
UCL=0.3886
0.3
Sample Count Per Unit
0.2
_
0.1 U=0.0955
0.0 LCL=0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Sample
Tests performed with unequal sample sizes
Points to Remember in Control Charts
■ Do not apply SPC tools to processes that are known to be out on control
■ Do not compare control limits with specification limits
■ Do not ignore ‘out-of-control’ signals if your ‘Y’ is meeting the specifications & ‘X’ is
meeting the operating limits
■ Ensure that observations are independent of each other
■ It’s quite possible that ‘X’ is under control, but ‘Y’ is out-of-spec’s

11.2 Prepare an Action Plan to Maintain
X’s That are Varying Away from
Settings

Action Plan for Out-of-Control X’s
■ Purpose of Action Plan
✛ Define what corrective actions should be taken when ‘X’ is found to be out-of-control
✛ Define what ongoing actions would keep ‘X’ in control
✛ Should be developed by the project team jointly
■ Documentation of Action Plan

✛ Must outline current control methods
✛ Should identify current measurements used
■ Points to Remember
✛ Keep the CTQ in mind

✛ Take help from the process flow diagrams developed in previous steps
✛ Pay attention to FMEA output

11.3 Re-compute Process Baseline &
Verify Against Target

Tollgate – Step 11
■ Improved performance / DPMO sustained for at least one-two months* with all vital X’s
under control
* Black Belts must use their discretion based upon the sample size available to statistically prove the
improvement

DMAI C
Step 12
Institutionalize
New
Capability

12.1 Develop action plan to sustain improvement
12.2 Sign-off the project closure form

12.1 Develop Action Plan to Sustain
Improvement

How to Sustain Process Improvement
■ Control Plan
■ Training & Communication
■ Project handovers with completed project dockets
■ Database of vital X’s
■ QFD / VOC
■ FMEA / Fishbone
■ Six Sigma Project Audits
■ Process Owners
■ SOP’s

12.2 Sign-off The Project Closure Form

Tollgate - Control
■ Improved performance / DPMO sustained for at least one-two months1 with all vital X’s
under control
■ Process owner2 identified for sustenance
■ Project docket handed over to Champion / Black Belt
1 Black Belts must use their discretion based upon the sample size available to statistically prove the
improvement
2 In cases where GB may move out of the present role

Project Closure
■ All Six Sigma projects must be closed with sign-offs
Tool
Project Closure Template

Project Closure
Templete

DMAIC SUMMARY: Problem Solving Flow
MEASURE ANALYZE IMPROVE CONTROL
Business
Business Statistical
Statistical Statistical
Statistical Business
Business
Problem
Problem Problem
Problem Solution
Solution Solution
Solution
PP RR OO JJ EE CC TT
Business Problem: Low production yield

Statistical Problem: Low mean, high deviation
Statistical Solution: Change raw material spec’s
Business Solution: Develop new vendor

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful
committed people can change the world:
Indeed it’s the only thing that ever has !
THANKS
agarwal.sachin@wipro.com

GB TRG For HZL

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D Support file

GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 1 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd

Six Sigma is the most important initiative GE has

You can see the “before” & “after” of an organization

GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 2 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd

GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 3 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd

3.4 defects per 1000000 opportunities

That means a process efficiency of 99.99966%

USL: Upper Specification Limit for a Performance Standard.

Target: Ideally the middle point of USL & LSL.

GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 4 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd

Consider below performance on ‘On time delivery’

Mean 0.70 days

On Target !!!! Good Performance ??

GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 5 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd

What customer sees!!

Customer always looks at variance , mean is … meaningless

GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 6 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd

@ 99% @ Six Sigma

No electricity for 85 hours each year No electricity for 9 minutes in 5 years

No television transmission for nearly 64 No television transmission for 11 minutes in

16 railway accidents per day 2 railway accidents per year

GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 7 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd

Sigma Level Defect per Million Opportunities Cost of Quality

2 308,537 (Non-competitive companies) Not Applicable

3 66,807 25-40% of Sales

4 6,210 (Industry Average) 15-25% of Sales

5 233 5-15% of Sales

6 3.4 (World class) < 1% of Sales

Source: Six Sigma by Mikel Harry

Being Better is Cheaper

GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 8 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd

■ Continuous Defect Reduction in Products & Services

■ Enhanced Customer Focus

■ Performance Dashboards & Metrics

■ Project Based Improvement, with Visible Milestones

■ Sustainable Competitive Edge

■ Global Acceptance of the Quality System

■ HELP IN MAKING RIGHT DECISIONS

GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 9 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd

GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 10 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd

A manufacturing company is having 2 lines. The avg

Target = 1 breakdown/ week max.

Which line is having tougher target?

GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 12 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd

This data data set is giving your current

GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 13 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd

GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 14 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd

So, six sigma is helpful in taking the right decisions,

‘Six sigma is the best training an organization

GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 15 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd

GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 16 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd

GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 17 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd

Establish CTQ Characteristics

Step 2 Establish Performance Parameters

GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 19 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd

GB TRG MATERIAL Slide 20 Proprietary to Wipro Ltd

Establish CTQ Characteristics

Step 2 Establish Performance Parameters

Step Step Owner

0.1 Define Business CTQ Champion, BB

0.2 Define your Customer Champion, BB