Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Hugh Miller
Colorado School of Mines
Mining Engineering Department
Fall 2008
Introduction
As we have addressed the fundamental concepts associated with
engineering economics and cash flows, is now time to convert these
estimates into measures of desirability as a tool for investment decisions.
PV
Initial Investment:$100,000
Project Life: 10 years
Salvage Value: $ 20,000
Annual Receipts: $ 40,000
Annual Disbursements: $ 22,000
Annual Discount Rate: 12%
Annual Receipts
$40,000(P/A, 12%, 10) $ 226,000
Salvage Value
$20,000(P/F, 12%, 10) $ 6,440
Annual Disbursements
$22,000(P/A, 12%, 10) -$124,000
Initial Investment (t=0) -$100,000
FV
T=0 +/- Cash Flows
Future Value Example
Initial Investment:$100,000
Project Life: 10 years
Salvage Value: $ 20,000
Annual Receipts: $ 40,000
Annual Disbursements: $ 22,000
Annual Discount Rate: 12%
Annual Receipts
$40,000(F/A, 12%, 10) $ 701,960
Salvage Value
$20,000(year 10) $ 20,000
Annual Disbursements
$22,000(F/A, 12%, 10) -$ 386,078
Initial Investment
$100,000(F/P, 12%, 10) -$ 310,600
PV of $ 25,282
$25,282(P/F, 12%, 10) $ 8,140
FV of $8,140
$8,140(F/P, 12%, 10) $ 25,280
Annual Value
Benefits:
$10,000 per year $10,000
Salvage
$2,000(P/F, 10%, 10)(A/P, 10%,10) $ 125
Costs:
$5,000 per year -$ 5,000
Investment:
$40,000(A/P, 10%, 10) -$ 6,508
Net Annual Value -$1,383
Benefit/Cost Ratio
1.67 2.0
Payback Period
This is one of the most common evaluation criteria used by engineering
and resource companies.
The Payback Period is simply the number of years required for the cash
income from a project to return the initial cash investment in the project.
The investment decision criteria for this technique suggests that if the
calculated payback is less than some maximum value acceptable to the
company, the proposal is accepted.
Alternative A
(45,000) 10,500 11,500 12,500 13,500 13,500 13,500 13,500 13,500 13,500 13,500
Alternative A
(120) 10 10 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Alternative A
(120) 10 10 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Alternative A
(120) 10 10 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Alternative A
(250) 86 50 77 52 41 70 127 24 6 40
Alternative A
(250) 86 50 77 52 41 70 127 24 6 40
Alternative A
(250) 86 50 77 52 41 70 127 24 6 40
Disadvantages:
A) This criterion fails to consider cash flows after the payback period,
therefore, it can’t be regarded as a suitable measure of profitability.
B) It doesn’t consider the magnitude or timing of the of cash flows during the
payback interval.
Advantages
1. Simple and easy to calculate, providing a simple number which can be
used as an index of proposal profitability.
2. Prevents management from exposure to excessive risk
The shorter the payback the less risk associated with the investment
3. Measure of lost opportunity risk
Projects with short payback will minimize opportunity risk since early
cash flows will be returned to the firm within a short span of time. (Liquidity)
4. Payback period represents a break even point.
Projects with life greater than the payback period will contribute profit to
the firm
Engineering Economics
EIT Review
IRR & Discount Rates
Investment Rate of Return
These terms are special versions of the more generic term, Internal
Rate of Return (IRR) or sometimes called marginal efficiency of capital
Internal Rate of Return refers to the interest rate that the investor
will receive on the investment principal
IRR is defined as that interest rate (r) which equates the sum of
the present value of cash inflows with the sum of the present
value of cash outflows for a project. This is the same as defining
the IRR as that rate which satisfies each of the following
expressions:
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Cash Flow (30.0) (1.0) 5.0 5.5 4.0 17.0 20.0 20.0 (2.0) 10.0
Solution:
Step 1. Pick an interest rate and solve for the NPV. Try r =15%
Since the NPV>0, 15% is not the IRR. It now becomes necessary to select a
higher interest rate in order to reduce the NPV value.
Step 2. If r =20% is used, the NPV = - $ 1.66 and therefore this rate is too high.
Step 3. By interpolation the correct value for the IRR is determined to be r =18.7%
IRR using Excel
There are several reasons for the widespread popularity of the IRR
as an evaluation criterion:
where X = 1/(1 + r)
For a polynomial of this type there may be n different real roots, or values of
r, which satisfy the equation. Multiple positive rates of return may occur when
the annual cash flows have more than one change in sign.
Multiple Roots Case
The following example illustrates the possibility of multiple rates which satisfy the definition of IRR:
Suppose a mining operation has a remaining life of eight years, but an investment is considered to increase the production rate. This will result in depleting the
deposit Year
in six years. Assuming0the following cash
1 flows, is the 2 3
investment justified? 4 5 6 7 8
Difference (15.0) 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 (10.0) (10.0)
Because there are two sign reversals in the cash flows, Descartes‘ Rule of Signs indicates there are a
maximum of two real roots to the IRR polynomial.
Solving for these roots by trial and error yields the following:
Multiple Roots Case
Graphically this appears as shown in the following figure:
The rates at which NPV = 0 are, by definition, the internal rates of return. By interpolation, the two solving rates of return for this example are approximately 4.5 and 12.3%
If both rates were above the firm's required rate of return there would be no
problem and the firm would accept the project.
However, what if the required rate of return is 10%? Which of the calculated
IRR values is correct? The answers to these questions are that they are both
mathematically correct, but they are meaningless from an economic standpoint.
ROR NPV
2% 1,941
6% 1,581
10% 1,283
15% 981
20% 739
IRR 47.82% 0
What is in the Discount Rate?