Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM

Introduction to Seismology

Seismic Hazard Analysis 1

(pp.455-460)
Ali Oncel
oncel@kfupm.edu.sa
Department of Earth Sciences
KFUPM
Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
Homework on Earthquake Search due May, 3
There are several online catalogs of earthquakes. In this exercise,
you will need to access one of these. For earthquakes any place
in the world, a good place to start is:
http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/epic/epic.html A catalog of
focal mechanisms (CMT Solutions) is at the Harvard seismology
site: http://www.seismology.harvard.edu/ You will need to use
an Excel spreadsheet to solve some of these 33° E
problems. 60° E

1. How many earthquakes occurred for the

37°N

Saudi Arabia and vicinity since 1973

a) with magnitude 6.0 or larger.
b) with magnitude 5.0 or larger.
c) with magnitude 4.0 or larger.
10° N

2. Present your data, giving the average number of earthquakes per

year and establish Log N= a – b M.
3. By consulting the Harvard catalog of moment tensors, for the
largest of the events in this region, infer the main tectonic process
in this region. Explain the reasoning behind your response.
 Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM

Oncel, 2006
Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
Frequency-Magnitude Model

Mc=4.6 Log (N)= 8.06 – 1.12 M

Depth=0-20km
Time Interval: 1973-2005 Oncel, 2006
Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
Recall: Seismic Zonation
Zoning: Spatial mapping of the variations in seismicity or
earthquake strong ground motion (and identification of
similar zones)

Macrozoning on the regional scale

Microzoning takes into account localised conditions

e.g. rock and soil type

Parameters to map:
Occurrence of damaging earthquakes (Mallett 1858)
Number of felt earthquakes (e.g. Balloré 1896)
Io
Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
Microzoning for Saudi Arabia

Al-Amri (2005)
Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM Regions
a-value b-value Mmax Area (Km2)
1 4.66 0.67 7 32058
2 4.93 0.67 7.4 43050
3 85032
4 98618
5 36638
6 4.77 0.82 5.8 67476
7 49614
8 4.67 0.7 6.7 78009
9 44958
10 5.14 0.75 6.9 112358
11 3.08 0.55 5.6 44958
12 3.62 0.5 7.2 67323
13 4.71 0.67 7 335851
14 3.21 0.59 5.4 343516
15 2.34 0.59 4.6 379730
16 3.64 0.66 5.5 533174
17 4.02 0.65 6.2 257798
18 6.83 0.94 7.2 160644
19
20
5.84 0.84 6.9 148636
408636
Al-Amri (2005)
21 2.42 0.51 4.8 403580
22 7.15 1 7.2 140096
23 3.35 0.59 5.7 324060
24 6.06 0.85 7.1 209585
25 4.35 0.71 6.1 238136
Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
What about the Mmax?
1.2
b-value

0.8

b-value
0.4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
8

5
Mmax Mmax
4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Oncel, 2006 after Al-Amri, 2005

Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
Magnitude prediction equations

• Best known: Wells and Coppersmith (1994).

– Distributed to the class.
– Recommendation: read the article, and learn
how to use these relations.

See pp. 437 of Bullen and Bolt

Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
Macro-/Microzoning for Saudi Arabia

Al-Amri, 2005 Adams, 2006

Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
Compared Models of Seismic Hazard

Al-Amri (2005)
Abdalla and Al- Homoud (2004)
Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM 30

29

28

27

26

25

24

23

51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59
Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM

23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
Case Work: Eastern Arabia

Abdalla and Al- Homoud (2004)

Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM Seismic Zones on Eastern Arabia

Abdalla and Al- Homoud (2004)

Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
Seismic Sources for
Eastern Arabia

Abdalla and Al- Homoud (2004)

Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
Maximum Expected
Earthquakes for
Seismic Sources

Abdalla and Al- Homoud (2004)

Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
Hazard Parameters for Seismic Sources
of Eastern Arabia
1008-2002

Abdalla and Al- Homoud (2004)

Could you write Magnitude-Frequency Relations for

Regions 1 and 2?
Log N= 10.17 – 1.22 M Region 1
Log N= 6.99 - 0.94 M Region 2

What is the number of M7 for regions 1 and 2?

Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
What is the Frequency?

Log (N/Tobs)= 10.17 – 1.22 M Region 1

Log (N/Tobs)= 6.99 - 0.94 M Region 2
Tobs= 995 years
What is the number of M7 for regions 1 and 2?
(N/Tobs)= 10 10.17-1.22*7 0.043 for Region 1

0.03 for Region 2

(N/Tobs)= 10 6.99-0.94*7
Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
What is the Recurrence Time?

What is the recurrence period for M7 events?

23.33 yrs
T(1)= 1/ (N/Tobs)=
387.10 yrs
T(2)=1/ (N/Tobs)=

Which of those regions has large hazard?

Region 1? Or Region 2?
Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
What is the Earthquake Probability?
Probability is given by formula as:

P(t)= 1-e-t/T

Recall T is recurrence time while t is years

Then calculate the M=7 probability for 30 years?

P(t)= 0.72 or % 72 for Region 1

P(t)= 0.07 or % 7 for Region 2