Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
12/09/21
Market Headlines | Setting the Context
2
Market Stress Events
S&P 500 Index
2002 DotCom
Credit Crisis
Hangover
(2007)
1800 (Mar 2002 - Sept
?
2002)
LTCM & Russian
1600 Debt Crisis
(July 1998 - Oct
1998)
1400
1200
1000
800
Kuwait Invasion
Market Crash
(Aug 1990 – Feb
600
(October 1987)
1991)
400
200
0
1985
1986
1987
1988
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1989
1994
2008
Source: Bloomberg, S&P 500 Index, January 1985 – October 31, 2008
3
Regional Performance
10 10
4.64
5 5
0 0
-5 -5
Percent (%)
Percent (%)
-10 -8.81 -10 -8.44
-11.35
-12.04
-15 -13.12 -15
-17.65
-20 -20
-20.67 -20.77
-25 -25
-26.95
-30 -30
MSCI MSCI World MSCI MSCI Japan S&P 500 S&P 500 MSCI Japan MSCI World MSCI MSCI
Em erging ex US Europe ex US Europe Em erging
Markets Markets
Source: Factset
4
S&P 500 | Historical Downturns
40%
32.0%
29.1%
22.2%
18.8%
?
20%
0%
-20% -15.8%
-23.8%
-40%
-30.2%
?
-46.2% -46.3%
Peak to trough "drawdown"
-51.44%
-60% Percent change in 12 months following trough
Years to
Recovery 5.8 0.4 1.7 0.3 4.7 ?
Source: Bloomberg
5
U.S. Recession History – The Last 150 Years
Peak to Trough
December 2007 (IV)-March 2009 + 15 + ?
March 2001(I)-November 2001 (IV) 8
July 1990(III)-March 1991(I) 8
July 1981(III)-November 1982 (IV) 16
January 1980(I)-July 1980 (III) 6
November 1973(IV)-March 1975 (I) 16 1945 – 2001
December 1969(IV)-November 1970 11 10 Cycles
April 1960(II)-February 1961 (I) 10
August 1957(III)-April 1958 (II) 8 10 Month Average
July 1953(II)-May 1954 (II) 10
November 1948(IV)-October 1949 11
February 1945(I)-October 1945 (IV) 8
May 1937(II)-June 1938 (II) 13
August 1929(III)-March 1933 (I) 43 1919 – 1945
October 1926(III)-November 1927 13
14
6 Cycles
May 1923(II)-July 1924 (III)
January 1920(I)-July 1921 (III) 18 18 Month Average
August 1918(III)-March 1919 (I) 7
January 1913(I)-December 1914 (IV) 23
January 1910(I)-January 1912 (IV) 24
May 1907(II)-June 1908 (II) 13
September 1902(IV)-August 1904 (III) 23 1887 – 1919
June 1899(III)-December 1900 (IV) 18 10 Cycles
December 1895(IV)-June 1897 (II) 18
January 1893(I)-June 1894 (II) 17
17 Month Average
July 1890(III)-May 1891 (II) 10
March 1887(II)-April 1888 (I) 13
March 1882(I)-May 1885 (II) 38
October 1873(III)-March 1879 (I) 65
June 1869(II)-December 1870 (IV) 18
April 1865(I)-December 1867 (I) 32
October 1860(III)-June 1861 (III) 8
June 1857(II)-December 1858 (IV) 18
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
6
When Bear Markets End
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index
Source: Aronson Johnson Ortiz; Standard & Poor’s; Crandall, Pierce &Company
7
7
MOVE
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
Aug 1998
Source: Bloomberg
Dec 1998
Volatility
Apr 1999
Aug 1999
Dec 1999
Apr 2000
Aug 2000
Dec 2000
Apr 2001
VIX Index (right axis)
MOVE Index (left axis)
Aug 2001
August 1998 – December 2008
Dec 2001
Apr 2002
Aug 2002
Dec 2002
Apr 2003
Aug 2003
8
Dec 2003
Apr 2004
Aug 2004
Dec 2004
Apr 2005
Aug 2005
Dec 2005
Apr 2006
Aug 2006
Dec 2006
Apr 2007
Aug 2007
Dec 2007
Apr 2008
265
10/13/2008
Aug 2008
Dec 2008
0
10
20
30
50
60
70
80
90
VIX
81
190
40
11/20/2008
12/31/2008
40 12/31/2008
Yields (%)
Yields (%)
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
31 Jan 97
30 Apr 97 05 Jan 07
19 Jan 07
31 Jul 97
02 Feb 07
31 Oct 97 16 Feb 07
31 Jan 98 02 Mar 07
30 Apr 98 16 Mar 07
31 Jul 98 30 Mar 07
13 Apr 07
31 Oct 98
27 Apr 07
31 Jan 99 11 May 07
30 Apr 99 25 May 07
31 Jul 99 08 Jun 07
Short Term Markets
31 Oct 99 22 Jun 07
06 Jul 07
As of September 30, 2008
31 Jan 00
Money Market Stress
20 Jul 07
30 Apr 00 03 Aug 07
31 Jul 00 17 Aug 07
31 Oct 00 31 Aug 07
14 Sep 07
9
31 Oct 02 18 Jan 08
31 Jan 03 01 Feb 08
30 Apr 03 15 Feb 08
31 Jul 03 29 Feb 08
14 Mar 08
31 Oct 03
28 Mar 08
31 Jan 04 11 Apr 08
30 Apr 04 25 Apr 08
31 Jul 04 09 May 08
31 Oct 04 23 May 08
Source: Bloomberg, Short term rates ending date 9/12/2008, 3 Month T-Bill vs 3 Month LIBOR Spread end date 9/17/2008
06 Jun 08
31 Jan 05
20 Jun 08
30 Apr 05 04 Jul 08
31 Jul 05 18 Jul 08
31 Oct 05 01 Aug 08
31 Jan 06 15 Aug 08
29 Aug 08
30 Apr 06
12 Sep 08
31 Jul 06 26 Sep 08
31 Oct 06
31 Jan 07
30 Apr 07
31 Jul 07
30-Day ABCP
90-Day ABCP
31 Oct 07
Fed Funds Target
31 Jan 08
3-Month T-Bill Yield
3.15
30 Apr 08
9/30/2008
31 Jul 08
Real Interest Rates
12
Fed Funds-CPI yoy, Aug-78 to Aug-2008
10
6
Percent Change
-2
-4
-6
1980
1982
1984
1986
1994
1996
1998
2006
2008
1978
1988
1990
1992
2000
2002
2004
Source: Bloomberg
10
U.S. Dollar Index
Weekly Data 8/27/1971 - 10/03/2008 (Log Scale)
160 160
152 152
145 145
138 138
131 131
124 124
118 118
112 112
107 107
102 102
97 97
92 92
87 87
83 83
79 79
1985
1988
1990
1991
1994
1984
1986
1987
1989
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2007
2008
2005
1973
1974
1977
1981
1983
2000
2003
2004
2006
1972
1975
1976
1978
1979
1980
1982
2001
2002
(I 240)
11
Inflation
January 2003 – November 2008
10%
PPI (YoY)
PPI ex Food & Energy (YoY)
8%
CPI (YoY)
CPI ex Food & Energy (YoY)
6%
4.2%
4%
Percent (%)
2.0%
2%
1.1%
0.4%
0%
-2%
-4%
Jan 2004
Jan 2005
Jan 2008
Jan 2003
Jan 2006
Jan 2007
May 2003
Sep 2003
May 2004
May 2005
Sep 2005
Sep 2006
May 2007
May 2008
Sep 2004
May 2006
Sep 2007
Sep 2008
Source: BLS
12
Energy Costs
Daily Data 7/30/1992 – 2/12/2009 (Log Scale)
13
Housing Price Appreciation …. Depreciation
January 1987 – November 2008
26.6% Price Decline
June 2006 to October 2008
25% June 2006 250
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index 226.3
(Composite of 10)
20%
15% 200
Year over Year Change
November 2008
10% Composite-10
166.05
Year Over Year Change
5% 150
Index Value
0%
-5% 100
-10%
Oct 1989 April 1991
82.4 76.8
-15% 50
6.8% Price Decline
October 1989 to April 1991
-20%
-25% 0
1989
1995
1997
1998
2000
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1988
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1996
1999
2002
2008
Source: Standard & Poor's
14
The Housing Sector | Housing Starts & Permits
1/31/1955 - 1/31/2009
Housing Starts (Year-to-Year Change)
90 1/31/2009 = -56.2% 90
80 80
70 Shaded areas represent National Bureau of 70
60 Economic Research recessions. 60
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
-30 -30
-40 -40
-50 -50
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
90 90
80 80
70 70
60 60
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
-30 -30
-40 -40
-50 1/31/2009 = -50.5% -50
15
NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index
Quarterly Data 3/31/1992 - 9/30/2008
68 68
9/30/2008 = 56.1%
66 66
64 64
62 62
60 60
58 Mean = 58.6% 58
56 56
54 NDR estimates from Q2 2002 to Q3 2004 54
52 52
50 50
48 48
46 46
The HOI measures the percentage of homes sold that are affordable
44 to families earning the median income during a specific quarter. 44
42 42
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
12 12
10 Affordability Rising 10
8 8
6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
-6 -6
-8 -8
Affordability Falling
-10 -10
-12 NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (Year-to-Year Point Change) -12
-14 9/30/2008 = 14.1 -14
(E0238A)
16
Employment
January 1986 – October 2008
Black Monday S&L Crisis Mexican Debt Russia/ LTCM NASDAQ Credit Crisis |
October 19, 1987 1990 Crisis | 1995 1998 Collapse | 2000 2007 – 2008
10% 4%
3%
8%
2%
6%
1%
4%
0%
2%
-1%
Civilian Unemployment Rate (left axis)
Nonfarm Payroll Employment (right axis)
0% -2%
1986
1987
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1999
2000
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
1988
1994
1998
2002
2007
Source: BLS
17
Unemployment Rates For Industrialized Nations
Monthly Data 1/31/1993 - 1/31/2009
7 United States 7
1/31/2009 = 7.6%
6 6
5 5
10 Euro-Zone 10
9 12/31/2008 = 8.0% 9
8 8
5 5
4 Japan 4
12/31/2008 = 4.4%
3 3
United Kingdom
8 1/31/2009 = 3.8% 8
6 6
4 4
11 Canada 11
10 1/31/2009 = 7.2% 10
9 9
8 Source: Haver Analytics 8
7 7
(IE100)
1998
1999
2000
2009
2001
2002
2003
2004
2008
2005
2007
1994
1993
1995
1996
1997
2006
Source: Ned Davis Research
18
Percent Change From Quarter One Year Ago
Source: BEA
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1983
1984
1985
U.S. Real GDP
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1993
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1994
1Q00
19
2Q00
1995 3Q00
4Q00
1996 1Q01
2Q01
3Q01
1997 4Q01
1Q02
1998 2Q02
3Q02
4Q02
1999 1Q03
2Q03
2000 3Q03
4Q03
1Q04
2001 2Q04
3Q04
2002 4Q04
1Q05
2Q05
2003 3Q05
4Q05
2004 1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
2005 4Q06
1Q07
2006 2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
2007 1Q08
2Q08
2008 3Q08
Real GDP Growth Deviation from Trend
(Percent Change)
.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
-3.0
-3.5
Source: IMF
20
GDP Growth Well Below Potential | A Great Moderating Inflation Event
3/31/1960 - 6/30/2008
Quarterly Data 3/31/1960 - 6/30/2008
CPI, GDP Growth and Productivity Growth
14 Consumer Price Index 14
13 Year-to-Year Change 13
12 6/30/2008 = 5.0% 12
11 11
10 10
9 9
8 8
7 7
6 6
5 5
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
9 Non-Farm Productivity 9
8 Year-to-Year Change 8
7 6/30/2008 = 2.9% 7
( )
6 6
5 5
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 Real GDP 0
Year-to-Year Change
-1 6/30/2008 = 2.2% -1
-2 ( ) -2
21
Equipment & Software Spending vs. Business Lending Standards
Quarterly Data 9/30/1990 - 9/30/2009 (Log Scale)*
-24 15
-21
-18 14
-15 13
-12
12
-9
-6 11
-3 10
0
3 9
6 8
9 7
12
15 6
18 Equipment & Software Expenditures 5
21
Year-to-Year Change 4
24
27 12/31/2008 = -10.9% 3
30 2
33 Scale Right
36 1
( )
39 0
42 -1
45
48 -2
51 Net % of Banks Tightening -3
54 Standards for Large Business Loans -4
57 Moved Ahead Two Quarters
60 -5
63 9/30/2009 = 64.2%
-6
66 Inverted Scale Left
( ) -7
69
72 -8
75 -9
78
81 -10
84 Correlation Coefficient = 0.75 -11
34 123 412 341 234 123 412 341 23 4 12 341 23 4 12 3 41 2 341 234 1 23 412 34 123 412 341 234 123 412 341 23
(E871) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
22
Global Central Banks Continued to Flood the Market with Liquidity
8.64
10 Yr Rates Change from 9/30/08 to 12/2/08
-20
8
7.02
-50
5.67
5.41
6
4.85
-100
4.45
4.36
4.24
4.02
-100 -100 -100 -100 -100 -100
(Basis Points)
(Basis Points)
3.83
3.83
3.76
3.74
3.48
4
3.16
3.05
2.71
2.68
-150
-150
1.47
1.36
2
-200
-200 0
-0.11
-0.50
-0.60
-0.82
-0.97
-0.97
-1.05
-1.12
-250
-1.15
-2
-1.62
-275
-300 -4
EMU
EMU
U.S.
U.S.
UK
Norwak
UK
Norwak
Australia
India
New Zealand
Sweden
Canada
Japan
New Zealand
Australia
India
Sweden
Canada
Japan
Source: Federal Reserve; Barclays Capital
23
But Banks are still not Lending
24
Flight to Quality Intensified in November
10-Year Treasuries below 3% / 2 year yields below 1%
10-Yr US Treasury Yield (%)
25
Investment Grade Corporates vs. Equity Market
Bonds more attractive than equities today
LT U.S. BBB Spreads
Source: Deutsche Bank; Bloomberg, Moody’s, NBER, Irrational Exuberance (second edition) (Robert Shiller).
Source: Deutsche Bank; Irrational Exuberance (second edition) (Robert Shiller), S&P.
26
Financial Conditions Index
January 1992 – December 2008
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1/8/2001 10/23/2002
Commerical Paper/T-Bill Spread 11.1%
(3.0) 10/22/1998 -1.28 -1.39
Libor-OIS Spread 11.1% -1.93
33.3% Credit Crisis
(4.0) Bond Market
Investment-Grade Corporate/Treasury
6.7%
Russian 2002 Credit
(5.0) Spread Dot Bomb
Financial Crisis Crunch 12/31/2008
Muni/Treasury Spread 6.7% -5.37
(6.0) Swaps/Treasury Spread 6.7%
High Yield/Treasury Spread 6.7%
Agency/Treasury Spread 6.7%
(7.0)
33.3%
Equity Market
(8.0)
S&P 500 Share Prices 16.7%
VIX Index 16.7%
(9.0) 33.3%
Total 100% 10/10/2008
(10.0) -10.18
(11.0)
Jan Nov Sep Jul May Mar Jan Nov Sep Jul May Mar Jan Nov Sep Jul May Mar Jan Nov Sep
92 92 93 94 95 96 97 97 98 99 00 01 02 02 03 04 05 06 07 07 08
Source: The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index. The index combines yield spreads and indices from the money markets, equity markets, and bond markets into a normalized
index. The values of this index are z-scores, which represent the # of standard deviations that current financial conditions lie above/below the average from 1992 – 2008.
27
Consensus World GDP Forecasts
13.0%
14% 2007
2008
12% 2009 (Nov Est)
2009 (Jan Est)
9.3%
9.0%
10%
8.5%
8.3%
8.1%
8.0%
7.3%
8%
6.7%
6.3%
6.2%
6.2%
5.7%
5.1%
5.1%
6%
3.5%
3.3%
3.0%
3.0%
4%
2.7%
2.6%
2.1%
2.0%
1.8%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
2%
0.7%
0%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.5%
-0.7%
-0.7%
-1.3%
-2%
-1.6%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-2.6%
-2.8%
-4%
U.S. Japan UK Euro area Brazil Russia India China Developed Emerging
markets markets
Commonfund Estimates:
2009E -1.8% -3.0% -3.3% 1.5% -2.0 5.0% 6.0% -2.5% 3.0%
28
What is likely to happen?
Recession
Sluggish consumer spending
Continued government involvement
New regulations and programs
Mortgage package for homeowners
Limited credit
Improved liquidity, starting with high-quality issuers
Rating agencies rethought
29
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0%
-30%
-20%
-10%
Return
Annual
1974 -11.4%
1975 12.0%
* Estimated returns
1976 9.9%
1977 5.1%
1978 2.5%
1979 10.8%
1980 11.9%
Historical Performance
1981 14.6%
1982 -0.9%
1983 41.3%
1984 -2.2%
1985 25.5%
Educational Endowments
1986 26.9%
1987 13.9%
1988 1.3%
1989 14.1%
1990 9.6%
30
1991 7.2%
1992 13.1%
1993 13.3%
2.9%
Source: NACUBO Endowment Studies, Commonfund Benchmarks Study | Educational Endowment Reports
1994
1995 15.5%
1996 17.2%
1997 20.4%
1998 18.0%
1999 11.0%
2000 13.2%
2001 -3.0%
2002 -6.0%
2003 3.1%
2004 14.7%
2005 9.7%
2006 10.6%
2007 16.9%
2008* -2.7%
2009* -23.0%
Cumulative Inflation-Adjusted Performance
70% S&P 500, 30% Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate and 5% Spend
CPI
120 HEPI
100
80
60
20
Time Period – 42 Years
0
1968
1970
1974
1978
1982
1983
1993
1994
1996
1997
2000
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1965
1966
1967
1969
1971
1972
1973
1975
1976
1977
1979
1980
1981
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1995
1998
1999
2002
Source: Ibbotson, Bloomberg, Commonfund Institute
The equity portion of the hypothetical portfolio is based on monthly returns of the S&P 500 Index (12/65-2/08), and the fixed income portion is based on monthly returns of the
Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Index (01/73-2/08) and the Ibbotson Associates Long Term Corporate Bond Index (12/65-12/72). HEPI data from 07/06 to 2/08 is estimated using
the Commonfund Institute method based on regression analysis. Returns for this hypothetical portfolio assume that it is rebalanced to 70/30 annually on 1/1/yy and 5% is distributed
annually on 1/1/yy.
31
Impact on Higher Education
Endowment Facilities
GIFTS
New
Deferred State Support
Annual Investments
Capital
Campaigns
Debt Renewal
Debt
Performance
Net Assets
DEBT
POLICY
Spending
Spending POLICY
Tuition and
Fee Rates Endowment Income Interest Fixed/ Variable
State Current Use Gifts Depreciation
Support
Operations
Revenues Expenses
32
Policy Issues
Asset allocation
Rebalancing
Spending rate/ amount
Spending policy
Gifts
Debt
Opportunities
33
Steps To Take | Short Term
34
Steps To Take | Long Term
Develop a long range financial plan integral with your strategic plan
Assess today’s revenue needs vs. the maintenance of the purchasing power of your
endowment over the long term
Think long term to take advantage of time-frame arbitrage
Review and revise your Investment Policy Statement
Review specific policies: asset allocation, rebalancing, spending, debt, gifts
Analyze your exposures and reposition your portfolio to take advantage of
opportunities when they appear
Develop a plan to raise funds for endowment from your best donors
Revisit your risk management process and procedures
Analyze your governance model, specifically how you run your endowment and how
you make investment decisions
35
APPENDIX
12/09/21
Credit Contagion Timeline
July 2007 – January 2008
July 25: Bankers raising August 16: The Chicago January 22: FOMC cuts
$20B for the private Mercantile Exchange, the the Federal Funds rate by
equity buyout of world’s largest derivatives 75bps in an emergency
Chrysler Group are exchange, raises margin action between scheduled
forced to postpone the requirements for 24 of meetings. This was the
sale of $12B in loans for 400+ contracts, including largest rate cut since
the car group. those based on 1982.
currencies, interest rates
and stock indices.
37
Credit Contagion Timeline
February – September 2008
Feb 7: The Bank of April 8: IMF warns the Sept 29: TARP
England cuts interest potential losses from the readjusted.
rates by a quarter of one credit crunch could reach Citigroup makes an offer
percent to 5.25% $1 trillion and may even July 13: IndyMac fails. for Wachovia.
be higher.
38
Credit Contagion Timeline
October – December 2008
39
Biography
William F. Jarvis, Managing Director, Commonfund Institute, is responsible for the Institute’s research, written analysis and client
publications. A financial services executive and attorney, Bill has worked with J.P. Morgan, where he spent 13 years as an investment banker
in New York and Tokyo; Greenwich Associates, where he advised leading investment management firms and instituted the firm’s first Japanese
research program; and Davis Polk & Wardwell, where he provided legal advice to global banks and securities firms. Prior to joining
Commonfund in 2006, Bill served as Chief Operating Officer of a privately-held hedge fund manager based in New York City. Bill holds a B.A.
in English Literature from Yale University, a J.D. from the Northwestern University School of Law, and an M.B.A. from the J.L. Kellogg Graduate
School of Management.
40
Important Notes
Investment Performance
Unless otherwise noted, any investment performance of funds maintained by Commonfund or its affiliates (“Commonfund Group Funds”)
included in this presentation reflects net total returns. Returns for periods of one year or more are annualized.
It is possible that investors may lose money on investments in any investments in Commonfund Group Funds, or in any investments in stocks,
bonds, or other instruments to which this presentation may relate, directly or indirectly. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future
performance. Income from investments may fluctuate.
Market Commentary
Market and investment views contained in this presentation, or other market or investment commentary included in the Commonfund Forum
program, is provided for the private use of Commonfund’s investors only. Commonfund is not soliciting any action based upon it, or making any
specific recommendation to any of its investors. While such information is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee
its accuracy or completeness. Any opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on the material only. Commonfund
disclaims any responsibility to update such information, opinions, or commentary. Commonfund does not accept any liability for any loss arising
from use of the commentary contained in this presentation or communicated during the Commonfund Forum. No part of this material may be
redistributed in any form without Commonfund’s prior written consent.
Market and investment views of third parties presented in this presentation or during the Commonfund Forum do not necessarily reflect the
views of Commonfund and Commonfund disclaims any responsibility to present its views on the subjects covered in statements by third parties.
No Offering
This presentation is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. The Commonfund Group Funds are offered only by means
of disclosure documents, prospectuses or similar materials made available to investors for consideration at the time of investment. Prospective
investors are encouraged to review these materials with care prior to investing or sending money. Commonfund Group Funds offered by
means of private placement will be offered only to qualified and eligible investors.
All interests in Commonfund Group Funds are offered through Commonfund Securities, Inc., a member of FINRA.
41
Market Outlook Disclaimer
Statements concerning Commonfund Group’s views of possible future outcomes in any investment asset class or market, or of possible future
economic developments, are not intended, and should not be construed, as forecasts or predictions of the future investment performance of any
Commonfund Group fund. Such statements are also not intended as recommendations by any Commonfund Group entity or employee to the
recipient of the presentation. It is Commonfund Group’s policy that investment recommendations to investors must be based on the investment
objectives and risk tolerances of each individual investor. All market outlook and similar statements are based upon information reasonably
available as of the date of this presentation (unless an earlier date is stated with regard to particular information), and reasonably believed to be
accurate by Commonfund Group. Commonfund Group disclaims any responsibility to provide the recipient of this presentation with updated or
corrected information.
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Use of this Presentation
This presentation is copyrighted by Commonfund; all rights reserved. While you may copy it for your personal use, you are not permitted to
publish, transmit, or otherwise reproduce this presentation, in whole or in part, in any format to any third party without the express written
consent of Commonfund. In addition, you are not permitted to alter, obscure, or remove any copyright, trademark or any other notices that are
provided to you in connection with this presentation.
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