Global Warming

Will Human-Induced Climate Change Destroy the World?

By Rich Deem
www.GodAndScience.org
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Introduction
Is the world getting warmer? If so, are the actions of mankind to blame for earths temperature increases? What can/should be done about these issues? Are the potential resolutions worth the cost to implement them?

History of Earths Climate

Earth formed ~4.6 billion years ago Originally very hot Suns energy output only 70% of present Liquid water present ~4.3 billion years ago (zircon dating) Much of earths early history erased during late heavy bombardment (~3.9 billion years ago)

History of Earths Climate

Life appeared ~3.8 billion years ago Photosynthesis began 3.5-2.5 billion years ago
Produced oxygen and removed carbon dioxide and methane (greenhouse gases) Earth went through periods of cooling (Snowball Earth) and warming

Earth began cycles of glacial and interglacial periods ~3 million years ago

Earths Temperature
Solar
Sun

Energy Solar Energy

Earths Temperature
Sun

Solar Energy

Radiative Cooling

Earths Temperature
Sun

Solar
Radiative Cooling

Energy

Earths Temperature
Sun

Solar Energy

Radiative Cooling

Sun

Greenhouse Effect

Earths Atmospheric Gases

Nitrogen (N2) Oxygen (O2) Water (H2O) Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4)

NonGreenhouse 99% Gases

Greenhouse 1% Gases

Sun

Runaway Greenhouse Effect

97% carbon dioxide 3% nitrogen Water & sulfuric acid clouds Temperature: 860F

Venus

Carbon Dioxide

420 370

Carbon Dioxide Levels

Muana Loa Readings CO2 Levels Since 1958 370 350 330 310 40 30 20 10 0

CO2 (ppm)

320 270 220 170 600000

Dome Concordia

CO2 (ppm)

Vostok Ice Core

400000 200000 Time (YBP)

Worldwide Carbon Emissions

Carbon (109 metric tons)
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1750 1800 1850 1900 Year 1950 2000 Total Liquid fuel Solid fuel Gas fuel

Annual Carbon Emissions

Annual carbon emissions Atmospheric CO2 Atmospheric CO2 average

Carbon (109 metric tons)

0 1955

1965

1975 1985 Year

1995

2005

Future Carbon Dioxide Levels

Increasing CO2 emissions, especially in China and developing countries Likely to double within 150 years:
Increased coal usage Increased natural gas usage Decreased petroleum usage (increased cost and decreasing supply)

Kyoto Protocol
Adopted in 1997 Cut CO2 emissions by 5% from 1990 levels for 2008-2012 Symbolic only, since cuts will not significantly impact global warming

Past Temperatures

0.8

Recorded Worldwide Temperatures

Decreasing

Mean Temperature (C)

0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 1880 1900 1920 1940 Year 1960 1980 2000 Flat

Historic Los Angeles Temperatures

22

Annual Temperatures

25

Summer Temperatures

17

Winter Temperatures

21

24

16

Temperature (C)

20

23

15

19

22

14

18

21

13

17

20

12

16

19

11

15 18 10 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

Year

Year

2007 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

-3

-2.5 -1.5

-1

-.5

-.1

.1

.5

1.5

2.5

3.4

Past Temperatures Measurement

Proxy a method that approximates a particular measurement (e.g., temperature)
Ice cores Pollen records Plant macrofossils Sr/Ca isotope data Oxygen isotopes from speleothem calcite (stalactites and stalagmites)

Temperature History of the Earth

Little ice age (1400-1840) 1C cooler Medieval warm period (800-1300) 1C warmer than today Cool/warm cycles occur ~1,500 years Affect mostly Northeastern U.S. and North Atlantic Mostly due to changes in thermohaline circulation Dramatic shutdown of thermohaline circulation occurred 8,200 years ago as a large lake in Canada flooded the North Atlantic

Main Ocean Currents

Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 4-2

Temperature History of the Earth

For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods These climate periods are largely the result of cycles in the earths orbit precession, obliquity, and eccentricity

Orbital Parameters: Precession

Apehelion

Perihelion

Orbital Parameters: Obliquity

24.5 22.5

Orbital Parameters: Eccentricity

Maximum: 0.061 Minimum: 0.005
Apehelion Apehelion Perihelion

To to scale! NotScale!

Orbital Parameters & Earths Climate

Precession (22 ky) Obliquity (41 ky) Eccentricity (100 ky)

Temperature

1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Age (kya)

Temperature History of the Earth

For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods Last ice age began to thaw 15,000 years ago, but was interrupted by the Younger Dryas event 12,900 years ago

Younger Dryas Event

Temperature (C)
-30 -35 -40 Ice Age -45 -50 -55 20 15 10 Age (kya) 5 0.30 Medieval Warm 0.25

Little Ice Age 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0

Snow Accumulation (m/yr)

-25

Younger Dryas

0.35

Younger Dryas Event

-8.0 -7.5 -7.0 -6.5 -6.0 -5.5 -5.0 -4.5 -4.0 16 15 14 13 12 11 Age (kya) Younger Dryas -34 -35 -36 -37 -38 -39 -40 -41 -42 -43 -44 10

1 8

O (Greenland)

1 8

O (China)

Temperature History of the Earth

Middle Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million ya) Temperatures: 2C higher than today.
20C higher at high latitudes 1C higher at the Equator

Sea levels were 100 ft higher Causes

CO2 levels that were 100 ppm higher Increased thermohaline circulation

Temperature History of the Earth

Eocene (41 million years ago) Opening of the Drake Passage (between South America and Antarctica). Increased ocean current exchange
Strong global cooling First permanent glaciation of Antarctica ~34 million years ago

Temperature History of the Earth

Paleocene Thermal Maximum (55 mya) Sea surface temperatures rose 5-8C Causes
Increased volcanism Rapid release of methane from the oceans

Temperature History of the Earth

Mid-Cretaceous (120-90 mya) Much warmer Breadfruit trees grew in Greenland Causes
Different ocean currents (continental arrangement) higher CO2 levels (at least 2 to 4 times higher than today, up to 1200 ppm)

Recent Temperature Changes

Hockey Stick Controversey

Temperature Change (C)
0.6 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 1000 1200 1400 1600 Year 1800 2000 Direct temperature measurements Mann et al. 1999

Is the Hockey Stick Correct?

Temperature Change (C)
2 1 0 -1 -2 800 Mann et al. 1999 Esper et al. 2002

1000

1200

1400 Year

1600

1800

2000

0.4

Is the Hockey Stick Correct?

Temperature Change (C)

0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 0

Mann et al. 1999 Esper et al. 2002 Moberg et al. 2005 Mann et al. 2008

400

800

1200 Year

1600

2000

U.S. National Academy of Sciences: June 2006

Temperature Change (C)
0.6 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 1000 1200 1400 1600 Year 1800 2000
2:1 chance of being right high level of confidence

Atmospheric Temperatures
0.8

Troposphere

Temperature Cgange (C)

1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5

Stratosphere

0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

-0.2 -0.4 -0.6 1980 1990 Year 2000

-1.0 1980

1990 Year

2000

CO2 Concentration Vs. Temperature

SST (C) Tropical Pacific CO2 (ppm) Antarctica
370 320 270 220 170 600000 400000 200000 Time (YBP) 31 30 29 28 27 26 025

Consequences of Global Warming

Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere

Temperature Change (C)
1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
Northern vs. Southern Latitude
Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere

Land vs. Ocean

Land Ocean

0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6

1920

1960 Year

2000

1920

1960 Year

2000

2007 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

-3

-2.5 -1.5

-1

-.5

-.1

.1

.5

1.5

2.5

3.4

Ice Sheets Melting?

GRACE (gravity measured by satellite) found melting of Antarctica equivalent to sea level rise of 0.4 mm/year (2 in/century) Zwally, 2005 (satellite radar altimetry)
confirmed Antarctica melting Greenland ice melting on exterior, accumulating inland (higher precipitation)

Melting Glaciers Mt. Kilimanjaro

Changes in Antarctica Ice Mass

1000 800

Ice Mass (km3)

600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 2003 2004 Year 2005

Rise in Sea Levels?

Present rate is 1.8 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century) Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 0.006 mm/yr2 If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level rise Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are unrealistic

20

Changing Sea Levels

Global Temperature Change

Relative Sea Level (cm)

10 0
Amsterdam, Netherlands Brest, France Swinoujscie, Poland

-10 -20 1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5

Sea Levels for 450,000 Years

Sea Level (m)
0 -20 -40 -60 -80

30 29 28 27 26
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

-100 -120

25

Time (KYBP)

SST (C) Tropical Pacific

20

31

15

Increase in Hurricanes?

Data Unreliable Two studies showed the total number of hurricanes has not changed 10However, the intensity of hurricanes has increased (more category 4 and 5 hurricanes and cyclones) 5Probably due to higher sea surface temperatures (more Scaled August-October energy) Temperature Sea-Surface Difficult to know if this trend will Storm Adjusted Atlantic Power Dissipation Index 0continue

SST/SPDI (meters3/sec2)

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

How Much Temperature Increase?

Some models propose up to 9C increase this century Two studies put the minimum at 1.5C and maximum at 4.5C or 6.2C Another study puts the minimum at 2.5C

Wildlife Effects
Polar Bears
Require pack ice to live Might eventually go extinct in the wild

Sea turtles
Breed on the same islands as their birth Could go extinct on some islands as beaches are flooded

Other species may go extinct as rainfall patterns change throughout the world

Effect on Humans
Fewer deaths from cold, more from heat Decreased thermohaline circulation
Cooler temperatures in North Atlantic

CO2 fertilization effect Precipitation changes

Droughts and famine (some areas) Expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union

Potential Worldwide Precipitation Changes

-50

-20

-10

-5

10

20

50

Drought in Africa
Lake Faguibine Lake Chad

1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

Cost to Stabilize CO2 Concentrations

Cost (Trillons U.S. Dollars)

450

550 650 Carbon Dioxide (ppm)

750

Possible Solutions to Global Warming

Mitigation of Global Warming

Conservation
Reduce energy needs Recycling

Alternate energy sources

Nuclear Wind Geothermal Hydroelectric Solar Fusion?

Storage of CO2 in Geological Formations

1. 2. 3. 4. Depleted oil and gas reservoirs CO2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery Deep saline formations (a) offshore (b) onshore CO2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery

3 a

3 b

Adapted from IPCC SRCCS Figure TS-7

Conclusions
Global warming is happening Most warming is probably the result of human activities There will be positive and negative (mostly) repercussions from global warming The costs to mitigate global warming will be high better spent elsewhere?