Time Management

Project Planning & Scheduling

Tarek M. Attia, Ph.D., PMP Tarek M. Attia, Ph.D., PMP

. .

Lecture Outline
Project Planning Project Scheduling Project Control CPM/PERT Probabilistic Activity Times Project Crashing and Time-Cost Trade-off

9-2

What is a Project?
Project

unique, one-time operational activity or effort constructing houses, factories, shopping malls, athletic stadiums or arenas developing military weapons systems, aircrafts, new ships launching satellite systems constructing oil pipelines developing and implementing new computer systems planning concert, football games, or basketball tournaments introducing new products into market
9-3

Examples

Project Elements
Objective Scope Contract requirements Schedules Resources Personnel Control Risk and problem analysis
9-4

Elements of Project Management

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Scope Cost Time / Schedule Human Resources Procurement Quality Communications Risk Integration
9-5

Project Management Process

Project planning Project scheduling Project control Project team

made up of individuals from various areas and departments within a company a team structure with members from functional areas, depending on skills required most important member of project team

Matrix organization

Project Manager

9-6

Why do Tasks finish late?

Some of the reasons:
1. Inadequate experience of team, leading to inaccurate estimates 2. Unforeseen delays with inadequate contingency planning 3. Failure to break down project elements far enough to estimate accurately 4. Unidentified precedents 5. Poor team communication about status of precedent tasks
9-7

Why do Tasks finish late?

Some of the reasons:
6. 7. Quality of work of precedents Rejected Precedents Resource unavailability (human and nonhuman) 8. Previous project changes not properly accounted for in revised project schedule
No accounting for change

9. Sponsor-initiated delays not documented appropriately: Contracting procedures, Approval delays, Scope Change requests, etc.
9-8

Rejected Precedents Example

Construction Project: Permanent heat not available due to change by mechanical contractor Temporary heat increased humidity drywall cured poorly Painter urged to start ASAP Paint finish rejected by Architect
Why do Tasks finish late?

9-9

No accounting for change - Example

Construction Project: Mechanical Contractor changed redesign of system No contingency plan for approval delays No contingency plan for re-work costs, or for delay costs
Why do Tasks finish late?

9-10

Project Planning
Projects typically start with at Statement of Work (SOW) provided by the client. The statement of work is a narrative description of the work required for the project. A Project Charter is often developed. Planning starts with the development of a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). A WBS is a deliverable-oriented grouping of project elements which organizes and defines the total scope of a project (PMBOK, 1996).

Project Planning
There are typically three to six levels in WBSs -program, project, task, subtask, etc. Developing a work breakdown structure is important for scoping a project, i.e., determining the specific tasks that have to be completed, choosing appropriate groupings for these activities, and setting precedence and interdependence (what has to follow what and what can be going on at the same time).

9-12

Project Scope
Scope statement

a document that provides an understanding, justification, and expected result of a project written description of objectives of a project breaks down a project into components, subcomponents, activities, and tasks
9-13

Statement of work

Work breakdown structure

Performance, Cost, and Time Project Targets

9-14

Project Success: Quadruple Constraint

Work Breakdown Structure for Computer Order Processing System Project

9-16

 Organizational Breakdown Structure

a chart that shows which organizational units are responsible for work items shows who is responsible for work in a project

Responsibility Assignment Matrix

9-17

Creating a Project Charter

1. Write an Overview of the Project Scope 2. Determine the Teams Boundaries for Creating the Deliverables 3. Define the Customers Criteria for Acceptance 4. Determine the Required Reviews and Approvals 5. Establish Risk Limits 6. Select the Project Leader and Team Members 7. Set Deadlines for Delivery of the Final Deliverables 8. Set Limits on Staffing & Spending 9. Create a List of Required Reports 10. Identify Organizational Constraints & Project Priorities. 11. Assemble a Project Charter
Martin, P. & Tate, K. 1997. Project Management Memory Jogger. GOAL/QPC.

charterform.pdf
9-19

Office Remodeling Project

The following activities must be accomplished to complete an office remodeling project: Estimated Duration (Days) Activity Procure Paint Procure New Carpet Procure New Furniture Remove Old Furniture Remove Old Carpet Scrub Walls Paint Walls Install New Carpet Move in New Furniture 2 5 7 1 1 1 2 1 1

Office Remodeling Project - WBS

Procure Procure Paint Procure New Carpet Procure New Furniture Prepare Remove Old Furniture Remove Old Carpet Scrub Walls Install Paint Walls Install New Carpet Move in New Furniture

Simple Approach for Creating the WBS

Gather Project Team Provide Team Members with Pad of Sticky-Notes Team Members Write Down all Tasks They can Think of. Sticky-Notes Placed and Arranged on Wall
9-22

9-23

P ost-It N ote P roject P lanning Statem ent of W ork (S O W ) O ffice Rem odeling A ctivities N eeded to C om plete O ffice R em odeling

1. O ne activity per Post-It note, include nam e, description estim ated duration (Initial each Post-It). 2. A rrange Post-Its on chart paper 3. W ork together to rearrange P ost-Its 4. D raw arrow s to indicate precedence
9-24

9-25

Project Scheduling
Steps

Techniques

Define activities Sequence activities Estimate time Develop schedule

Gantt chart CPM PERT Microsoft Project

9-26

Gantt Chart
Graph or bar chart with a bar for each project activity that shows passage of time Provides visual display of project schedule Slack

amount of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the project

9-27

Example of Gantt Chart

0
Activity Design house and obtain financing Lay foundation Order and receive materials Build house Select paint Select carpet Finish work

Month 4

10

Month

9 9-28

Project Control
Time management Cost management Quality management Performance management

Earned Value Analysis

a standard procedure for numerically measuring a projects progress, forecasting its completion date and cost and measuring schedule and budget variation

Communication Enterprise project management

9-29

CPM/PERT
Critical Path Method (CPM)

DuPont & Remington-Rand (1956) Deterministic task times Activity-on-node network construction

Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

US Navy, Booz, Allen & Hamilton Multiple task time estimates Activity-on-arrow network construction
9-30

Project Network
Activity-on-node (AON)

nodes represent activities, and arrows show precedence relationships

1

Node
2 3

Activity-on-arrow (AOA)

arrows represent activities and nodes are events for points in time completion or beginning of an activity in a project

Event

Branch

9-31

AOA Project Network for a House

Lay foundation

3
2 1

Dummy 0 Build house 3 1 1 Finish work 1

3 Design house and obtain financing

Order and receive materials

4
Select paint

6
Select carpet

9-32

Concurrent Activities
Lay foundation Lay foundation

3
Dummy 2 1 0

3 2

Order material

Order material (b) Correct precedence relationship

(a) Incorrect precedence relationship

9-33

AON Network for House Building Project

Lay foundations Build house

2 2 Start 1 3 3 1 5 1

4 3

Finish work

7 1 6 1
Select carpet

Design house and obtain financing

Order and receive materials

Select paint

9-34

Critical Path
2 2 Start 1 3 3 1 5 1 6 1 4 3 7 1

A: B: C: D:

1-2-4-7 3 + 2 + 3 + 1 = 9 months 1-2-5-6-7 3 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 8 months 1-3-4-7 3 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 8 months 1-3-5-6-7 3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 7 months

Critical path

Longest path through a network Minimum project completion time

9-35

Activity Start Times

Start at 5 months

2 2
Start

4 3

Finish at 9 months

1 3 3 1
Start at 3 months

7 1 6 1
Start at 6 months

Finish

5 1

9-36

Mode Configuration
Activity number Earliest start

Earliest finish

1 3

0 0

3 3
Latest finish

Activity duration

Latest start

9-37

Forward Pass
Start at the beginning of CPM/PERT network to determine the earliest activity times Earliest Start Time (ES)

earliest time an activity can start ES = maximum EF of immediate predecessors earliest time an activity can finish earliest start time plus activity time

Earliest finish time (EF)

EF= ES + t

9-38

Earliest Activity Start and Finish Times

Lay foundations Build house Start

2 2 1 1 0 3

5 4 3 7 1 6 6 7
Finish work

Design house and obtain financing

3 1

4 5 1
Select pain

1 5 6
Select carpet

Order and receive materials

9-39

Backward Pass
Determines latest activity times by starting at the end of CPM/PERT network and working forward Latest Start Time (LS)

Latest time an activity can start without delaying critical path time

LS= LF - t
Latest finish time (LF)

latest time an activity can be completed without delaying critical path time LS = minimum LS of immediate predecessors

9-40

Latest Activity Start and Finish Times

Lay foundations Build house Start

2 2 1 1 0 0 3 3

3 3

5 5 4 3 5 5 8 8 7 1 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9

Design house and obtain financing

Finish work

3 1

3 4

4 5 5 1 5 6 6 7

Select carpet

Order and receive materials

Select pain

9-41

Activity Slack
Activity
*1 *1 *2 *2 3 3 *4 *4 5 5 6 6

LS
0 0 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7

ES
0 0 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8

LF
3 3 5 5 5 5 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 9

EF
3 3 5 5 4 4 8 8 6 6 7 7 9 9

Slack S
0 0 1 0 1 1 0

*7 8 *7 8 * Critical Path

9-42

Probabilistic Time Estimates

Beta distribution

a probability distribution traditionally used in CPM/PERT a + 4m + b Mean (expected time): t= 6 Variance: where

b-a = 6

a = optimistic estimate m = most likely time estimate b = pessimistic time estimate

9-43

Examples of Beta Distributions

P(time) P(time)

t
Time

a
Time

P(time)

m=t
Time

b
9-44

Project Network with Probabilistic Time Estimates: Example

Equipment installation

1
6,8,10 System development

Equipment testing and modification System training Final debugging 10 1,4,7 11

2,4,12

8
Manual testing 3,7,11

Start

2
3,6,9 Position recruiting

Finish

5
2,3,4 Job Training

9
2,4,6 System testing

1,10,13 System changeover

3
1,3,5

6
3,4,5 Orientation

7
2,2,2

9-45

Activity Time Estimates

TIME ESTIMATES (WKS) ACTIVITY MEAN TIME VARIANCE

a 6 3 1 2 2 3 2 3 2 1 1

m 8 6 3 4 3 4 2 7 4 4 10

b 10 9 5 12 4 5 2 11 6 7 13

t 8 6 3 5 3 4 2 7 4 4 9

2 0.44 1.00 0.44 2.78 0.11 0.11 0.00 1.78 0.44 1.00 4.00
9-46

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Activity Early, Late Times, and Slack

ACTIVITY

t 8 6 3 5 3 4 2 7 4 4 9

2 0.44 1.00 0.44 2.78 0.11 0.11 0.00 1.78 0.44 1.00 4.00

ES

EF

LS

LF

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

0 0 0 8 6 3 3 9 9 13 16

8 6 3 13 9 7 5 16 13 17 25

1 0 2 16 6 5 14 9 12 21 16

9 6 5 21 9 9 16 16 16 25 25

1 0 2 8 0 2 11 0 3 8 0

9-47

Earliest, Latest, and Slack

1 0 8 1
8

4 8 5 16 21 8 9 7 9 5 6 3 6 6 3 4 5
9 16

13

Critical Path
10 13 17

1 0

3
Finish

Start

2 0 6 0

16
11 16 25

9
7

3 0 3 2

9 9 13 4 12 16

9 16 25

7 3 5 2 14 16

9-48

Total project variance 2 = 22+ 52 + 82 + 11 2 = 1.00 + 0.11 + 1.78 + 4.00 = 6.89 weeks

9-49

Probabilistic Network Analysis

Determine probability that project is completed within specified time where = tp = project mean time = project standard deviation x = proposed project time Z = number of standard deviations x is from mean
9-50

x- Z=

Normal Distribution Of Project Time

Probability

= tp

Time
9-51

Southern Textile Example

What is the probability that the project is completed within 30 weeks?
P(x 30 weeks)

= 6.89 weeks 6.89

= 2.62 weeks
= 25 x = 30
Time (weeks)

x- Z= 30 - 25 = 2.62 = 1.91

From Table A.1, (appendix A) a Z score of 1.91 corresponds to a probability of 0.4719. Thus P(30) = 0.4719 + 0.5000 = 0.9719
9-52

Southern Textile Example

What is the probability that the project is completed within 22 weeks? x- 2 = 6.89 weeks P(x 22 weeks) Z= 22 - 25 = 6.89 = 2.62 = 2.62 weeks = -1.14
x = 22 = 25 Time (weeks)

From Table A.1 (appendix A) a Z score of -1.14 corresponds to a probability of 0.3729. Thus P(22) = 0.5000 - 0.3729 = 0.1271
9-53

Project Crashing
Crashing

reducing project time by expending additional resources an amount of time an activity is reduced cost of reducing activity time reduce project duration at minimum cost

Crash time

Crash cost

Goal

9-54

Project Crashing: Example

2 8 1
12

4
12

7 4 3 4 6 4

5 4

9-55

Project Crashing: Example (cont.)

$7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000
Crash time Normal time Normal cost Normal activity Crash cost Crashed activity Slope = crash cost per week

| 2

| 4

| 6

| 8

| 10

| 12

| 14

Weeks 9-56

Normal Activity and Crash Data

ACTIVITY NORMAL TIME (WEEKS) CRASH TIME (WEEKS) NORMAL COST CRASH COST TOTAL ALLOWABLE CRASH TIME (WEEKS) CRASH COST PER WEEK

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

12 8 4 12 4 4 4

7 5 3 9 1 1 3

$3,000 2,000 4,000 50,000 500 500 15,000 $75,000

$5,000 3,500 7,000 71,000 1,100 1,100 22,000 $110,700

5 3 1 3 3 3 1

$400 500 3,000 7,000 200 200 7,000

9-57

$500 2 8 1
12

$7000 4
12

$700 7 4

Project Duration: 36 weeks

FROM

$400

3 4 $3000

5 4 $200

6 4 $200 $500 2 8 $7000 4

12

$700 7 4

TO
Project Duration: 31 weeks Additional Cost: $2000

1
7

$400

3 4 $3000

5 4 $200

6 4 $200 9-58

Time-Cost Relationship
Crashing costs increase as project duration decreases Indirect costs increase as project duration increases Reduce project length as long as crashing costs are less than indirect costs

9-59

Time-Cost Tradeoff
Minimum cost = optimal project time Total project cost Indirect cost

Cost ($)

Direct cost Crashing Project duration Time 9-60