Mengapa perlu Sensus

Ekonomi ?

Kresnayana Yahya
 Sensus Ekonomi

• Detailed information on the structure of the

economy

- Apa saja industri yang exist

- Dimana lokasi , size, tenaga kerja
- Apa saja input yang digunakan
- Apa dan berapa outputnya
- Mana saja markets yang dilayani
- Pola penggunaan energy – IT – Internet
- Struktur tenaga kerja
Apa manfaat untuk publik

• Benchmarking: kondisi pasar – industri dan

• Arah kebutuhan dan struktur tenaga kerja
• Tracking economic change
• Attracting new businesses
• Arah business development
• Porsi dari UKM dan usaha baru
Persentase PDB Menurut Lapangan Usaha Atas Dasar
Harga Berlaku, Tahun 1986, 1996, dan 2005
24,14 16,67
31,23
32,70 8,65

11,22
16,66 16,36 25,62
16,76

1986 1996

13,39

?
32,35 10,44

15,75 28,06

2005 2006

Pertanian_Kehutanan_Per
Industri Pengolahan Lainnya
ikanan
Pertambangan_peng Perdagangan_Hotel_
galian Restoran
 Organizational change carries risks and rewards

Paradigm Shifts
High

Reengineering

Risk Rationalization

Low Automation

Low High

Return
 Community vs. Economic
Development
Community Development
 Focused on improving
quality of life
 Focused on needs of
residents
 Concerned with housing,
social services, education,
health care, recreation, etc.
Are interdependent, but slightly different
Economic Development
 Focused on improving
standard of living
 Focused on needs of
businesses
 Concerned with business
climate, workforce,
transportation, infra-
structure, etc.
 “Economic Growth”
Absolute changes in:
 Jobs
 Population
 Labor force
 Traffic
 Student enrollments
 Building construction
“Growth” vs. “Development”
WEED PATCH GARDEN
• Unplanned • Planned
• Change • Improvement
• Activity • Progress
• Reactive • Proactive
Bureaucratic Burden
1. Time (number of days) to clear customs for imports
Brazil
Philippines
China
India
Russia
Indonesia
Thailand
Turkey
Slovenia
Malaysia
Estonia

0 5 10 15

Source: World Bank PICS surveys.

 Bureaucratic Burden
2. Labor regulations in Thailand are more restrictive than in key comparator countries
such as China, Malaysia
220

25th Percentile
200
Index of Labor Market
180
Regulations = 26.2

160
Days to Start a Business

Indonesia Brazil
140

120

100

India
80

60
Philippines 25th Percentile
40 China
Start Business = 26 Days
Malaysia Thailand
Chile
20 Korea
Singapore
U.S.
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Index of Overall Restrictiveness of Labor Market Regulations

Source: World Bank Doing Business Indicators 2004.

 And “High Tech Exports” is Not
Necessarily Equal to
Competitiveness!!
High-technology exports (% of manufactured exports)

75
Philippines

60
Malaysia

45

Thailand
30

China
Indonesia Mexico
15 Brazil
Colombia India
Chile Argentina Vietnam Sri Lanka Pakistan Bangladesh
0
0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00
Manufactures exports (% of merchandise exports)
 3. Past Technological Performance
has been Modest
Technological
Innovation index
readiness index
China 54 26
Indonesia 64 33
Philippines 63 76
Malaysia 28 25
Singapore 7 11
Thailand 46 42
Brazil 42 32
Bulgaria 62 84
Peru 75 94
Romania 53 53
Tunisia 47 34
Source: Global Competitiveness Report, 2004-2005
 Deming’s Chain Reaction
Costs decrease because
of fewer mistakes, delays,
Improve and snags; less need to
Quality rework materials; better use
of machine time and
materials

Productivity
Capture the improves
market with
better quality and
lower price

Stay in Provide jobs

business and more jobs
Source: W. Edwards Deming, Out of the Crisis (Cambridge, Mass.: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 1988), p. 3.
 Continuous Improvement System Approach
THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT
Competitors Suppliers
Government policies Local regulations
Physical infrastructure Industrial property, patents…
Economic performance ISO 9000, WTO
(National and International) Environment regulations

STRATEGIES
PRODUCTION UNIT
OBJECTIVES

RESULTS
Production unit potential
Target market Skilled workers
Relative quality Raw material
Parts and components
Performance Suppliers / Services
Success factors Maintenance
Standards and Metrology

Quality TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT

Loop Productivity and quality levels
Plant level Inspection
Statistical Process Control…..
Mgmt.
Loop BUSINESS PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT
Consumer satisfaction Financial
Production Quality
Operation Timing
 The aim of the integrated restructuring and upgrading programme is to support the
process of restructuring, competitiveness, integration and growth of industries in the
context of economic and trade liberalisation.

Modernizing the
Industrial environment

Strengthening the Restructuring Promoting the

capacities of support and upgrading development of
institutions programme competitive industries

Improving the
competitiveness and
development of
industrial enterprises
 THE UPGRADING PROCESS with focus on Supply Chains/Clusters

CLUSTER/ENTERPRISE LEVEL AT THE ENVIRONMENT LEVEL

Strategic and value chain diagnosis Institutional & regulatory environment

Formulation of the upgrading plan and Infrastructure and services

financing scheme
Banking and financial environment
Approval of the upgrading plan
Investment incentives and promotion
Implementation and follow-up of the
upgrading plan Export Consortia/cluster & supply chain

Organisation & Training & B2B Alliance

Modernisation management Production skills B2C Quality & Marketing Partnership
of equipment systems systems development B2G certification & Export Supply
chain

Productivity, Price, Quality

COMPETITIVENESS

The local market Export market

 ENTERPRISES RESTRUCTURING
SUB-SECTOR ECONOMY
ENTERPRISE

Management Taxation
Competition Organisation
Marketing/Sales
Operations Management Tariffs
Technology
Finance/Cost Accounting
Economic climate
Factor prices Quality Management
Maintenance
Strategic Plans Legal environment
Investment climate
Human Resource
Development
Industry R & D Research & Development Political environment
INTERNAL
Demand pattern Environment Policy framework

Trading policy Institutional structure

The INTERNAL EXTERNAL INFLUENCE the

and Environment operation of all
EXTERNAL ENTERPRISES
 Goals

“The great thing in this world is not so much where

we are, but in what direction we are moving.”

Oliver Wendell Holmes

 ECOPRENEUR MANAGEMENT

GREEN TQM
QUALITY OF THE ENVIRONMENT
QUALITY OF LIFE
QUALITY OF PROBLEM SOLVING
QUALITY OF CORPORATE SOCIAL
RESPONSIBILITY
TOWARD A GREEN FUTURE
TURN FROM TRASH INTO GOLD
 Distribusi Perekonomian
Indonesia th 2005 (PDRB ADHK)
Jasa - jasa Pertanian
Keuangan,
10.10% 13.41%
Persewaan &
Jasa
Pertambangan
Perusahaan
& Penggalian
8.36%
10.44%
Pengangkutan
& Komunikasi
6.63%

Perdagangan,
Hotel &
Restoran Industri
15.74% Pengolahan
Listrik, Gas & 28.05%
Konstruksi
6.35% Air Bersih
0.92%
 Growth of GDP at Constant 2000
Market Price Indonesia (%)
6.50 6.19

6.00 5.80

5.29 5.33
5.50
5.30
5.00
4.38 4.34
4.50
4.08 4.06
3.90
4.00

3.503.30 3.23

3.00
2001 2002 2003* 2004**

Agriculture Manufacturing Industry Trade, Hotel and Restaurant

15.00

12.70
13.00

11.56
11.00
8.94
9.007.92 8.17

8.39 6.67
8.10
7.00 5.91
5.48 5.88
4.58
5.00

3.00
2001 2002 2003* 2004**

Electricity Construction Transport and Communication

10.00
7.72
8.006.60 7.02
6.37
6.00 4.91

4.00
3.87
3.75
2.00 3.24 1.00
0.33
0.00 -0.89
2001 2002 2003* 2004**
-2.00

-4.61
-4.00

-6.00

Mining and Quarrying Financial Services

 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
11.73 30.32 31.97 12.16 13.83

12.33 30.57 31.22 11.94 13.94

11.66 28.35 32.34 12.72 14.92

1994 1995 1996

10.27 26.56 32.99 14.01 16.16

1997
10.00 26.39 32.99 13.92 16.70

1998
9.79 25.45 32.49 14.62 17.65

1999
9.66 24.29 32.45 15.28 18.32

2000
10.30 24.11 32.66 14.87 18.06

2001
8.64 22.63 33.30 15.92 19.53

2002
8.50 21.87 33.42 16.65 19.56

2003
and over (%)

8.98 15.31 31.87 20.12 23.72

2004
No schooling
population aged 10 years

Junior High School

Elementary School
Educational attainment of

Some Elementary School

At least senior High School
 Jumlah Tenaga Kerja per Sektor -4.
Industrial Origin 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Agriculture 39,743,908 40,633,627 43,042,104 40,608,019 41,814,197 -6.
Mining and Quarrying - 631,802 732,768 1,034,716 808,842
Manufacturing Industry 12,086,122 12,109,997 11,495,887 11,070,498 11,652,406
Electricity - 178,279 151,831 228,297 186,801
Construction 3,837,554 4,273,914 4,054,741 4,540,102 4,417,087
Trade, Hotel and Restaurant 17,469,129 17,795,030 17,249,484 19,119,156 18,896,902
Transport and Communication 4,448,279 4,672,584 4,939,665 5,480,527 5,552,525
Financial 1,127,823 991,745 1,306,551 1,125,056 1,042,786
Services 11,003,482 10,360,188 9,837,760 10,515,665 10,576,572
Lainnya 1,091,120 - - - -
Total 90,807,417 91,647,166 92,810,791 93,722,036 94,948,118
Sumber : www.bps.go.id (diolah)
 Struktur Tenaga kerja
22.00
20.40
19.90
20.0019.24 19.42
18.59

18.00

16.00

14.0013.31 13.21
12.39 12.27
11.81
12.00
12.12
11.30 11.22 11.14
10.00 10.60
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Manufacturing Industry Trade, Hotel and Restaurant
Services
 Struktur Tenaga kerja Pertanian
47.00
46.38
46.50

46.00

45.50

45.00

44.34
44.50
44.04
44.0043.77

43.33
43.50

43.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
 Produktifitas Tenaga Kerja
(PDRB ADHB)
25,000,000.00
22,275,719.13
23,000,000.00
20,133,546.66
21,000,000.00
19,000,000.00 17,681,734.73
19,585,571.37 19,474,709.03
17,000,000.00
15,321,656.85
15,000,000.00 15,984,555.49
13,000,000.00
13,837,256.24
11,000,000.00
8,728,202.18
9,000,000.00 7,355,410.34 7,565,940.55
6,625,619.20
7,000,000.00
5,000,000.00
2001 2002 2003 2004

Agriculture Trade, Hotel and Restaurant Services

 Produktivitas Tenaga Kerja
Sektor Industry Manufactur
(PDRB ADHB)

60,000,000 58,961,213.85

58,000,000

56,000,000

54,000,000
51,327,139.87
52,000,000

50,000,000

48,000,000
45,726,435.77
46,000,000

44,000,000
41,892,676.58
42,000,000

40,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004
 Produktifitas Tenaga Kerja
16,000,000.00(PDRB ADHK 2000)
15,290,317.64
15,000,000.00
13,766,126.67 13,924,572.61
14,000,000.00 13,086,164.05
13,000,000.00
12,000,000.00

11,000,000.00
9,680,893.21
10,000,000.00 9,171,674.83
8,606,655.29
9,000,000.00 9,508,201.26
7,956,383.01
8,000,000.00 8,694,767.90

7,000,000.00
7,169,824.69
6,000,000.00 6,798,209.26
2001 2002 2003 2004

Manufacturing Industry Trade, Hotel and Restaurant Services

 Sektor Agriculture (PDRB ADHK 2000)

35,000,000

34,000,000
34,062,627.68

33,000,000
32,127,664.55
32,000,000 31,673,691.80

31,000,000

30,000,000
28,981,111.43
29,000,000

28,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004
 Posisi Kredit Jenis
100,000.00

90,000.00
Total Pemanfaatan (Milliar Rp) 87,844
90,699

70.00
64.08 63.79 63.99
80,000.00 62.13 62.21 62.57
67,287 57.65
70,000.00 60.00
60,000.00
46,986 50.00
50,000.00

40,000.00 35,000
32,049 40.00 Struktur
27,714
30,000.00

20,000.00 30.00 24.40

23.58 23.72
21.17 21.52 21.43 20.18
10,000.00
20.00
- 21.19
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Feb 06 16.35 16.36 15.74
10.00 13.86
11.81 12.29
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Feb 06
Kontruksi Real Estate KPR dan KPA
 Posisi Kredit menurut Sektor
Ekonomi (Milliar Rp) 800000

700000
Total 689,669 674,698

600000 553,548

500000 437,942

400000 365,410
307,594
269,000
300000

200000

100000

0
Struktur 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Feb 06 Struktur
8.00 45.00
7.25
6.78
7.00 39.70
6.11 40.00 37.88
5.85
6.00 5.55 5.36
5.32
35.00 33.12
5.00

4.00 30.00 28.11

25.94
3.00 24.60 24.14
25.00
2.00 2.48 2.42
20.35 20.06 19.45 19.75
1.67 20.00 18.06
1.00 1.40 16.47
1.16 1.14 15.95 19.24 19.48 19.57 19.35
1.11 16.69
16.39 15.75
0.00 15.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Feb 06 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Feb 06

Pertanian Pertambangan Industri Perdagangan Jasa-jasa

Kredit Usaha Kecil (Milliar Rp)
110,000
106,051.00
100,000
100,194.00
93,615.00
90,000

80,000
73,968.11
70,000
62,569.00
62,262.00
60,000
56,625.00
50,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Feb 06
Penghimpun Dana pada Bank
Umum (Milliar Rp)
1,200,000
1,134,078 1,134,493

1,100,000

1,000,000 965,079

902,325
900,000
845,015
809,126
800,000
720,380

700,000

600,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Feb 06
 Posisi Tabungan dan Simpanan
Berjangka
(Milliar Rp)
310000 296,646 600000 581,374
Tabungan 281,743 Simpanan Berjangka
569,680
290000
271,572
550000
270000

244,437
250000
500000

230000
446,198 447,481
450000 433,127
210000
193,467 421,290

190000
172,611 390,543
400000
170000
154,328

150000 350000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Feb 06 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Feb 06
 Inflasi 2005 melonjak
pasca BBM
Laju inflasi, y-o-y
SBY-JK Period 18.38
17.32
18
16
percent

14
12
10.60
10 8.81
9.06
8 7.20

6
5.79
4 4.60
t

t
n

n
l
l

l
r

r
Ju

Ju

Ju

Ju
r-
Oc

Oc

Oc

Oc
Ap

Ap
Ja

Ja

Ja

Ja
Ap
2002 2003 2004 2
Source: BPS. 005
 300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
Mar
8-Jan
10-Mar
23-Apr
31-May
25-Jun
22-Jul
18-Aug
14-Sep
11-Oct
perbaikan

4-Nov
7-Dec
3-Jan
28-Jan
25-Feb
24-Mar
20-Apr
18-May
(Jakarta composite index)

14-Jun
8-Jul
3-Aug
30-Aug
26-Sep
SBY-JK period

20-Oct
fundamental
baru, tapi belum diikuti

22-Nov
16-Dec
13-Jan
9-Feb
IHSG mengukir rekor-rekor

7-Mar
 IHSG tak mencerminkan
struktur perekonomian
secara utuh
Structure JCI-weighted
of GDP industry Difference
Agriculture
Mining & 15.0 1.3 +13.7
Quarrying 10.5 7.8 +2.7
Manufacturing 27.6 32.9 -5.3
Construction 5.8 2.4 +3.4
Financial
Transport & 8.2 28.3 -20.1
Comm.
Electricity, Gas 6.3
21.2 -14.0
& Trade,
Water Hotel & 0.9
Rest. 15.8
6.0 +19.7
Services 9.9
Total 100.0 100.0 0.0
Sources: BPS and JSX.
Anomali trend SBI dan IHSG

Trend SBI

Trend IHSG
 Proyeksi Angkatan Kerja Lama Menurut
Pendidikan dan Entri Baru

100%
PT
90% SMU
80%
SLTP
Persentase AK

70%

60%
SD atau k urang
50%

40%

30%

20%
e ntri baru s e m ua pe ndidik an
10%

0%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Tahun
 Age structure of Indonesia
Population
Laki-laki + Perempuan
37.4% 36.8% 35.9%
33.7%
30.7% 31.5% 29.9%
28.2% 27.6%
26.3% 28.5%
28.3%
24.3% 25.9% 25.1% 22.8%
23.9%
21.9%
18.8%
16.3%
13.6%
10.0% 10.7% 11.9%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

< 15 th 15 - 34 th 35 - 54 th 55 + th
 Tantangan Perekonomian
•
Indonesia
Support dan Integrasi kebijakan belum knowledge base
• Perijinan dan pengaturan jumlah dan model persaingan belum dipandu
dengan kebijakan
• Tidak semua dan belum semua sektor perlu mendasarkan pada market
driven policy.Perlu keberanian melakukan tindakan perlindungan dan
pengembangan
• Arah dan kebijakan energy jangka panjang yang konsisten
• Dukungan Infrastruktur – orientasi business dan arah penyiapan SDM
serta redefinisi peran dan kewenangan pemerintah
• Membangun kesiapan globalisasi dalam struktur permodalan –
kepemilikan –persaingan usaha
• UKM menjadi andalan dan punya struktur tersendiri
• Perubahan struktur demography – ketenagakerjaan dan kesempatan
kerja menjadi persoalan yang mendesak dipedulikan
 Orientasi dan arah
• Produktivitas dan beaya tidak seimbang lagi
• Penyederhanaan dan sekaligus integrasi pajak –
laporan – perijinan
• Keterbandingan global dan peran setiap sektor
• Makin kuat dan solidnya Asosiasi Usaha akan
makin mudah mengembangkan kebijakan
• Kelayakan (membuka& mengembangkan )
usaha seharusnya makin dipandu oleh kebijakan
terpadu
• Kejujuran dan keterbukaan pada proses
pengumpulan –analisa dan interpretasi data
makin menjamin terbentuknya Policy ekonomi
yang tangguh