Why and How This Centurys Agriculture Should Be Different from 20th Century Agriculture

National Seminar on Resource Management and Sustainable Development College of Agriculture Bapatla, AP, January 28, 2004
Norman Uphoff Cornell International Institute for Food, Agriculture and Development (CIIFAD)

20th Century Modern Agriculture Has Been the Most Successful in History
Per capita food production, 1960-2000, increased by 30% Real food prices in constant terms during this period decreased by 48% Agriculture was an engine of growth over four decades worldwide Capital and labor resources generated in agricultural sector supported industry

Per Capita Food Production, 1961-2000, and Agricultural Commodity Prices, 1960-2000

However, modern agriculture is not necessarily the ultimate development

Productivity gains achieved with heavy use of external inputs have slowed down Negative externalities are becoming more evident -- environmental, social costs How likely are we to make further progress in 21st century doing more of the same? Technologies, policies, and institutions are needed that will be better suited to our present and future situations

We Need to Raise the Productivity of LAND

Grain area p/c in India 1950 0.28 ha 2000 0.10 ha 2050 0.06 ha

We Need to Raise the Productivity of WATER

WATER is becoming scarcer,
at least for agricultural uses and certainly scarcer in per capita and in per area terms Estimated annual water deficit:
-- India -- China -- U.S. 104.0 billion m3 30.0 billion m3 13.6 billion m3 (S. Postel, 2001)

Previous Productivity Gains

Were Made with Increased Use of CHEMICAL INPUTS Fertilizers, pesticides, insecticides,
fungicides, herbicides, etc. are now -- giving diminishing returns while -- creating environmental hazards and health risks with -- rising costs of production and -- continuing problems of efficacy

Recent Changes in Input Use

World Fertilizer Use, 1950-2000 Global Pesticide Sales, 1950-1999 (on other side)

Changes in Fertilizer Productivity

World Grain Production

Fertilizer
Response

Ratio

Use

1950 1984 1989 1993

631 1649 1685 1719

14 126 146 130

9.1:1 1.8:1 Not calculable

Problems with Agrochemicals

Rising Costs -due to supply/demand dynamics for petroleum

Environmental and Health Hazards -become more evident all the time

Declining Efficacy -chemical treadmill caused by increasing resistance

21st Century Agriculture Needs to Be

More PRODUCTIVE in terms of :
LAND -- per unit area LABOR -- per hour/per day WATER -- per cubic meter CAPITAL -- more profitable

More ENVIRONMENTALLY BENIGN

More robust in face of CLIMATE CHANGE

More SOCIALLY BENEFICIAL

ACCESSIBLE to the poor, reducing poverty Providing greater FOOD SECURITY Contributing more to HUMAN HEALTH

These Expectations Call for a

Post-Modern Agriculture
which is more productive and profitable, while being more benign environmentally and more socially beneficial, i.e., a Greener Revolution

Post-Modern Agriculture
Is not like post-modernism in literature & humanities, which reject modernity P-M agriculture will build on the same scientific foundations as modern agric. It will be more fundamentally grounded in biological science than current agric. Biotechnology will be part of P-M agric. but agroecology is its basic foundation Post-modern agriculture will be the most modern agriculture, not backward

20th Century Agriculture

Built on advances made in engineering starting in 18th century [farm implements and equipment, powered machinery] And on knowledge from chemistry from middle of 19th century [esp. fertilizers] 20th century accelerated improvements made in genetic potentials thru breeding The basic approach was to increase and improve the INPUTS made in agriculture Modern agriculture is ENERGY-intensive
-- reducing/displacing labor at expense of land

The Green Revolution

Represented a synthesis and culmination of many developments in engineering [ mechanization ] + chemistry [ fertilizers and pest control ] + genetics [ HYVs ] The world, and particularly India, would be a much less liveable place without the benefits of the Green Revolution The emerging alternative paradigm of post-modern agriculture is not a rejection of what the Green Revolution contributed, but opens new opportunities

The Green Revolution Is Reaching Certain Limits

Productivity gains are decreasing -- slowdown in yield increases since end of 1980s Diminishing returns to fertilizer and other inputs are raising farmers costs of production -- evident decline in the productivity of inputs Costs of inputs are rising as subsidies are cut; petroleum prices are likely to rise in future Water availability for agriculture is diminishing -- we need less thirsty methods of production Adverse impacts on environment and human health are rising [agrochemicals, water quality]

Modern Agriculture Is Not Sustainable

Fortunately, there are alternatives that are
Scientifically sound, not just fads or fancy Environmentally benign, or even enhancing Profitable over time, and often immediately Employment-generating for social welfare More beneficial for human health Useable at various scales of production, and Evolving and improving
as more becomes known about them, and as more farmers and researchers work with them

AGROVISION 2004
Will show what post-modern agriculture could become by considering what is known about: Agroecological innovations around the world Organic farming experience and opportunities Use of biofertilizers, biocides, organic inputs The tillage revolution in South Asia The System of Rice Intensification (SRI) Use of green manures and cover crops Farming systems with permanent vegetative cover (developed by CIRAD)

Common Themes
These various approaches are all together complementary, having shared concerns: A different view of SOIL, stressing its life and health -- not regarded as an inert repository for seeds, fertilizer, etc. An appreciation of MICROORGANISMS and other SOIL BIOTA -- as creators and maintainers of soil fertility Greater attention paid to plant ROOTS as the foundation for agricultural success

Modern Agriculture and Biotechnology Focus on One Species at a Time

This ignores the all-important CONTEXT of interactions among plants, among soil organisms, between plants and soil organisms, and of these with animals AGROECOLOGY captures the benefits of synergy among these various organisms, capitalizing on the potentials of their existing genomes as they interact with their environments to produce phenotypes

Modern Agriculture and Biotechnology Have Become Overly Genocentric

Productivity and success in agriculture depend equally on THREE major factors: GENETIC POTENTIAL -- the starting point INPUTS -- from farmers and environment MANAGEMENT -- by farmers to get best results from inputs and to deal with the environment, to create the best fit among genetic potential, inputs and environment Agriculture is a highly skilled profession

Pie chart showing 3 factors in equal proportions

Example of the System of Rice Intensification (SRI)

Achieves yield increases of 50-100% -- or more: Without changing varieties Without requiring chemical inputs (fertilizer or pesticides) Using about 50% as much water And only 10-20% as much seed With higher grain quality

Single Cambodian rice plant transplanted at 10 days

Rice field in Cuba -- 14 t/ha

SRI pla with 87 fe tile tille s at CFA Ca ilo Cie fue os Cuba

Two rice plants in Cuba -Same variety: 2084 (Bollito) Same age: 52 DAP

SRI field in Sri Lanka -- yield of 13 t/ha with panicles having 400+ grains

Two rice fields in Sri Lanka -- same variety, same irrigation system, and same drought : conventional methods (left), SRI (right)

Analysis of SRI in Sri Lanka

SRI Standard Yields (tons/ha) 8 4 +88% Market price (Rs/ton) 1,500 1,300 +15% Total cash cost (Rs/ha) 18,000 22,000 -18% Gross returns (Rs/ha) 120,000 58,500 +74% Net profit (Rs/ha) 102,000 36,500 +180% Family labor earnings Increased with SRI Water savings 40-50%

Data from Dr. Aldas Janaiah, economist at IRRI, 1999-2002, now working at Indira Gandhi Development Studies Institute in Mumbai, data from interviews with 30 SRI farmers in Sri Lanka, October 2002

Analysis of SRI in Sri Lanka

Survey by IWMI of 60 randomly-selected SRI farmers: Save seeds More tillers Reduced need for herbicides Less lodging
Higher seed quality

100% 98% 92% 91% 91% 90%

Water saving Less pest and disease problem 88%

Reduced demand for fertilizer 86% Lower input costs 85% Higher yield 83% More milling output 77% Water productivity + 90% Profits > double Risk of net loss reduced
Equal accessibility to poor

The basic idea of SRI is that RICE PLANTS DO BEST when

(A) Their ROOTS can grow large and deep because the plants have been transplanted carefully, without trauma, and there is wider spacing between plants, giving canopies and roots more room and light (B) They grow in SOIL that is kept well aerated, with abundant and diverse soil microbial populations and fauna

Root Activity in SRI and Conventionally-Grown Rice

Nanjing Agricultural University (Wang et al. 2002) Wuxianggeng-9 variety
500

W S Oxygenation ability of -NA (ug/h.gDW)

400

300

200

100

0 N -n n -2 H ead in g M atu rity

Development stage

AZOSPIRILLUM POPULATIONS, TILLERING AND RICE YIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENT CULTIVATION PRACTICES AND NUTRIENT AMENDMENTS
Results of replicated trials at the Centre for Diffusion of Agricultural Intensification, Beforona, Madagascar, 2000 (Raobelison, 2000)

Azospirillum in the
CLAY SOIL
Traditional cultivation, no amendments SRI cultivation, with no amendments SRI cultivation, with NPK amendments SRI cultivation, with compost amendmts Rhizosphere (103/ml)

Roots
(10 /mg)
3

Tillers/
plant

Yield
(t/ha)

25 25 25 25 25 25

65 1,100 450 1,400 75 2,000

17 45 68 78 32 47

1.8 6.1 9.0 10.5 2.1 6.6

LOAM SOIL
SRI cultivation, with no amendments SRI cultivation, with compost amendmts

SRI is COUNTER-INTUITIVE
LESS CAN PRODUCE MORE by utilizing the potentials and dynamics of biology : Smaller, younger seedlings become larger, more productive mature plants Fewer plants per hill and per m2 can give more yield under SRI growing conditions Half the water can give a greater yield and Increased output is achieved with fewer or no external inputs -- feed the soil > plant Get new phenotypes from existing genotypes

The contributions of soil microbial activity need to be taken more seriously

The microbial flora causes a large number of biochemical changes in the soil that largely determine the fertility of the soil. (DeDatta, 1981, p. 60, emphasis added)

Water is becoming a greater constraint in agriculture Soil degradation is reducing arable areas
Water storage is best done in the soil, is greatly increased by soil biota Degraded soil is deficient more in biological than in chemical terms Soil erosion is due to mismanagement, ploughing has many adverse effects

AGROVISION Presentations on Agroecological Approaches

Will explain principles and give evidence on how productivity can be increased -profitably and sustainably -by intelligently capitalizing on biological processes and interactions SYSTEMS THINKING is required to understand and take advantage of these new opportunities Post (most) modern agriculture