Converging Insecurities: climate, energy, water and food

ANDREW CAMPBELL CDU 15 July 2011

Research Institute for the Environment & Livelihoods

Outline
Converging Insecurities
Climate Water Energy Food

Intersections and interstices

On-ground examples

Knowledge, science & policy

2

Key Points
The age of cheap, abundant fossil fuel energy is coming to an end The age of carbon accounting and pricing is here Water security will be a perennial issue for southern Australia Each of these has their own imperatives, but their interactions are equally, if not more important We tend to deal with these issues in science and policy silos But at operational levels, the trade-offs are very real already What sorts of knowledge do we need, and how might we get it?
3

The human footprint on the planet

1950
Population CO2 Energy Use Sea Levels 2 billion 310 ppm 80EJ/yr

2050
9 billion >450ppm >550EJ/yr 0.2-1.5m higher

This trajectory cannot be sustained without a radical decoupling of economic growth from resource depletion and degradation, and from emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Achieving such a decoupling is the most profound structural change the world has ever attempted
4

Climate
The core problem: population & carbon emissions

Source:

WBCSD & IUCN 2008;

Harvard Medical

The climate is changing

Impacts
As greenhouse gases increase
so does temperature
land, sea & air

and sea levels oceans more acidic snow & ice melt more variable climate more extreme weather

Climate change is the biggest

Water
Each calorie takes one litre of water to produce, on average Like the Murray Darling Basin, all the worlds major food producing basins are effectively closed or already over-committed We need a radical increase Pre se n ta ti n T i e | 0 0 M o n th 2 0 1 0 o tl in water productivity 8

Global food demand

ASSUMPTIONS

Source: Dr Megan Clark (CSIRO) Presentation to the Science & Technology in Society Forum Japan, 6 October 2009

Continued growth in per capita food consumption in developing countries to equal developed countries (3330kcal/day) by 2050 Diversion of land & water etc for biofuels grows to 15% by 2050 No food wastage prior to 1920, increasing Pre se n ta ti n T i e | 0 0 M o n th 2 0 1 0 o tl to current levels9 of

Feeding the world

The world needs to increase food production by about 70% by 2050, & improve distribution We have done this in the past, mainly through clearing, cultivating and irrigating more land
and intensification, better varieties, more fertiliser, pesticides

Climate change and oil depletion is narrowing those options, with limits to water, land, energy & nutrients 10

Pre se n ta ti n T i e | 0 0 M o n th 2 0 1 0 o tl 11

But maybe we ain t seen nothin yet .

Pre se n ta ti n T i e | 0 0 M o n th 2 0 1 0 o tl 12

World

Energy & nutrients

The era of abundant, cheap fossil fuels is coming to a close

World oil demand expected to grow 50% by 2025 Oil discovery peaked in the 1960s, and production is in decline, 4 barrels used for each 1 discovered 49 of 65 oil producing regions are past their peak, declining at average 6.7% per year The world needs new production six times that of Saudi Arabia today to be brought on stream between 2007 and 2030

Rising oil costs = rising costs for fertiliser, agrichemicals, transport and food
13

Oil production decline (3)

a significant risk of a peak in conventional oil production before 2020. The risks presented by global oil depletion deserve much more serious attention by the research and policy communities.
UK Energy Research Centre, An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production, August 2009
we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day

Dr Fatih Birol, Chief Economist IEA, 3 August 2009

The challenge of feeding 7 or 8 billion people while oil supplies are falling is stupefying. Itll be even greater if governments keep pretending that it isnt going to happen.

George Monbiot, The Guardian 16.11.09

Presentation Title | 00 Month 2010 14

Land & soil

The FAO recently assessed trends in land condition (measured by net primary productivity) from 1981 - 2004 Land degradation is increasing in severity and extent :

>20 percent of all cultivated areas >30 percent of forests >10 percent of grasslands
1.5 billion people depend directly on land that is being degraded Land degradation is cumulative . Limited overlap
http :// www . fao . org / newsroom / en / news / 2008 / 1000874 / index . html

between 24% of the land surface identified as degraded now and the 15% classified in 1991, because NPP has flatlined near zeroPre se n ta tio n T itle | 0 0 areas 115 in flogged M o n th 2 0 0

Climate-energy-water feedbacks

Saving water often uses more energy, and vice-versa Efforts to moderate climate often use more energy +/or water
E.g. coal-fired power stations with CCS will be 25-33% more water-intensive

Using more fossil energy exacerbates climate chaos

from Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Steffen & Troy (2007)
16

Water, energy, and GDP

Water and energy have historically been closely coupled with GDP in Australia
Water & GDP

Energy & GDP

Our challenge now is to radically reduce the energy , carbon and water - intensity of our economy

17 from Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Steffen & Troy (2007)

Profound technical challenges

1.To decouple economic growth from carbon emissions 2.To adapt to an increasingly difficult climate 3.To increase water productivity

decoupling the 1 litre per calorie relationship more food energy out per unit of energy in while shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy

1.To increase energy productivity

2.To develop more sustainable food systems

while conserving biodiversity and improving landscape amenity, soil health, animal welfare & human health

3.TO DO ALL OF THE ABOVE SIMULTANEOUSLY!

improving sustainability and resilience Research Institute for the Environment
& Livelihoods

Scales for response to climate change

Many of the main drivers of biodiversity loss operate at the landscape-scale e.g. habitat fragmentation, invasive species and changed fire regimes. It is the scale which lends itself to integrated, whole of ecosystem and cross tenure solutions.

CSIRO 2010

Terry Moran, Institute of Public Administration, 15 July 2009:

Perspectives from the top of the APS

Reflecting on the challenges of public sector reform:

By and large, I believe the public service gives good advice on

incremental policy improvement. Where we fall down is in longterm, transformational thinking; the big picture stuff. We are still more reactive than proactive; more inward than outward looking. We are allergic to risk, sometimes infected by a culture of timidity. The APS still generates too much policy within single departments and agencies to address challenges that span a range of departments and agencies We are not good at recruiting creative thinkers.
http://www.dpmc.gov.au/media/speech_2009_07_15.cfm
20

On-ground examples

Murrumbidgee Irrigation Coliban Water Energy Tree Cropping (CRC FFI)

21

Murrumbidgee Irrigation - a
current case
Bulk water distributor and seller in the MIA
$1B GVAP, and $7B value-add of food, wine and fibre production

100 year old irrigation & drainage network being modernised

Replacing leaky, gravity-fed open earthen channels Piping and pressurisation will treble energy consumption And hence greenhouse gas emissions

Options:
Biomass energy plant - 0.5m tonnes p.a. of ag & food process waste Solar thermal power plant on linear easements (C pricedependent) Conversion to biodiesel Carbon offsets through large scale tree planting

Turning a water company into a water, energy & carbon 22 company

23

Coliban Water Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Note total emission s have trebled in five years Superpipe to Bendigo from the Goulburn on-line

Coliban Water emissions per Megalitre

Note water supply emissions up tenfold in five years, now level with sewage treatment , which is stable

The Coliban Water Radar Screen

Balancing competing priorities: Social Technical Environmental Economic Political

Woody biomass energy

Learning from the Vikings :
Finland: same area and population as Victoria, tougher climate, shorter growing season, slower growth rates Private forestry thinningsetc produce 23% of Finlands primary energy, over 75% of thermal energy needs, and 20% of Finlands electricity In Sweden it is 20% (already higher than oil) with a target of 40%

Foran et al
Australia

suggest woody biomass energy can fuel

WA already in the lead

2nd Gen biofuels (mallees) 48 times more energetically efficient than

27

CRC Future Farm Industries energy tree Developing an efficient supply chain for woody crops wheat belt farming energy crops integrated into
systems. Solving a bottleneck with the invention of a new harvesting head Water yield trade-offs minimal <10% of farm area, in low rainfall zones. Sensitive to distance from mill decentralised grid.

28

Carbon plus wool, beef and sheep meat

30

Biocarbon/energy integrated with farming vs replacing farming

32

Transition to carbon-neutral, energy-positive, water-smart rural landscapes

Carbon plus grass-fed, rain-fed, red meat, cereals and oilseeds
significant offsets built-in to grazing & cropping systems benefits for habitat, micro-climate, aesthetics, water quality, shelter, bioenergy and carbon

Regional biomass energy plants using municipal waste & energy trees BUT: MIS schemes show that, without good planning & controls, the market will default to large monoculture plantations replacing agriculture, not integrated into farming (sub-prime carbon!) Potential reductions in water yields and food security Huge regional planning & infrastructure implications
33

The integration imperative

Managing whole landscapes

where nature meets culture (Simon Schama) landscapes are socially constructed beyond ecological apartheid NRM means people management engage values, perceptions, aspirations, behaviour

Integration
- across issues e.g climate, energy, water, food, biodiversity - across scales agencies, governments, short-term, long-term - across the triple helix landscapes, lifestyles & livelihoods

What sorts of knowledge do we need? Integrated metrics, or tools for integrating metrics
Simple
wins mud maps of generic trade-offs and win-

Narratives How

that make the challenge more meaningful

Including international best practice case studies

to articulate, quantify and evaluate CEW (and food) interactions, trade-offs and synergies holistically CEW project assessment tools for new developments, and optimisation tools for 35 improving them (across water, energy, carbon

Better

What sorts of knowledge do we need (2)?

Component technologies that help us to reduce the carbon, energy and water intensity of our economy Systems and integrative tools for putting whole packages together across STEEP (Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic and Political) dimensions Inter- and trans-disciplinary sciences, closely linked to the policy and management environments (leading edge SMEs & consultants) Institutional analysis tools to spotlight blockages and develop more facilitative planning and regulatory environments Community engagement work with champions, bring communities along the journey 36

H o w m i h t w e a cq u i th a t g re kn o w l d g e ? e

A Water, Energy & Land (WEL) R&D Corporation?

(see PC Inquiry submissions (271) and reports) need to work with at least four Ministers & their agencies

A Climate-Energy-Water CRC to build research capacity & improve integration? A Sustainability Commission with a research mandate?

sister agency to the Productivity Commission? or an expansion of its brief?

37

H o w m i h t w e a cq u i th a t g re kn o w l d g e ( 2 ) ? e
Shared training in systems thinking and network leadership for bright, mid-level cohorts across government & industry Commitment to some pilots e.g. greenfield suburbs (Weddell?), regional centres on the margins of the grid, remote communities Longer term education programs in unis, schools, households, firms, community groups Social learning: much smarter use of web 2.0 technologies, linked to real-time smart meters etc

38

Reflections

Climate, water, energy, food and health are interconnected The age of cheap, abundant fossil fuel energy is ending The carbon pricing era has begun! Rural, urban and regional planning needs to integrate its consideration of climate, carbon, water, energy and food Such integration is a real challenge for science, and for policy .and for the interface between science and policy Rich and diverse opportunities for environmental professionals in almost every aspect of economy and society

GO FOR IT !
39

For more information

Policy Propositions for Sustainable Food Systems Powerful Choices: transition to a biofuel economy

e.g. Paddock to Plate

www.cdu.edu.au/riel