LSP 120: Quantitative Reasoning and Technological Literacy

Topic 2: Exponential Models

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Exponential Change
Like linear relationships, exponential relationships describe a specific pattern of change between a dependent and independent variable Recognizing and modeling this pattern allows us to make predictions about future values based on an exponential rate of change. While in linear relationships, y changes by a fixed absolute amount for each change in x (such as adding 3 each time),

In exponential relationships, y changes by a fixed relative amount for each change in x (such as adding 3% each time).
An exponential relationship is one in which for a fixed change in x, there is a fixed percent change in y. Prepared by Ozlem Elgun 2

HOW TO CALCULATE PERCENT CHANGE We can use Excel to determine if a relationship is exponential by filling the neighboring column with the percent change from one Y to the next. As with linear, do not put this formula in the cell next to the first pair of numbers but in the cell next to the second.

difference new old PercentChange original old

x y Percent change

0 192 1 96 =(B3-B2)/B2 2 48 3 24
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How to Format Cells in Excel

Right click on the cell you want to format Click on Format Cells Select the Number Tab Choose the appropriate format you want
i.e. If the cell contains a number, select Number

Display at least two decimal points

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 You can display percent change in decimal or percent format. For descriptive or visual representations you want to use the percent format. For calculations you want to use the decimal format.

Above, I explain how to change the format of your cells. An easy way to format your cells to display percentages is to click on the % icon on Excel.
x y Percent change -50% -50% -50% 0 192 1 96 2 48 3 24

If the column is constant, then the relationship is exponential. So this function is Elgun Prepared by Ozlem exponential.

Which of the following are exponential?

x y 0 0 1 1 2 4 3 9 x y 0 3 1 5 2 9 3 13 x 0 y .5 5 1.5 10 4.5 15 13.5

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Exponential function equation

As with linear, there is a general equation for exponential functions. The equation for an exponential relationship is:

y = P*(1+r)x
P = initial value (value of y when x = 0), r is the percent change (written as a decimal), x is the input variable (usually units of time), Y is the output variable (i.e. population)

The equation for the above example would be y = 192 * (1- 0.5)x Or y = 192 * 0.5x. We can use this equation to find values for y if given an x value. Write the exponential equation for other examples.
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Why are exponential relationships important? Where do we encounter them?

Populations tend to growth exponentially not linearly When an object cools (e.g., a pot of soup on the dinner table), the temperature decreases exponentially toward the ambient temperature (the surrounding temperature) Radioactive substances decay exponentially Bacteria populations grow exponentially Money in a savings account with at a fixed rate of interest increases exponentially Viruses and even rumors tend to spread exponentially through a population (at first)

Anything that doubles, triples, halves over a certain amount of time

Anything that increases or decreases by a percent

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If a quantity changes by a fixed percentage, it grows or decays exponentially.

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How to increase/decrease a number by a percent

There are 2 ways to do this: N=P+P*r or N= P * (1 + r) According to the distributive property, these two formulas are the same. For the work we will be doing later in the quarter, the second version is preferred. Similarly to the formula above, N is the ending value (new value), P is the starting value (initial, reference, old value) and r is the percent (written in decimal form). To write a percent in decimal form, move the decimal 2 places to the left. Remember that if there is a percent decrease, you will be subtracting instead of adding.
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Example1
Increase 50 by 10% N= 50 + 50 * .1 = 50 + 5 = 55 OR N = 50 * (1+.10) = 50 * 1.10 = 55
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Reminder formulas:

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Example 2

Reminder formulas:

Sales tax is 9.75%. You buy an item for $37.00. What is the final price of the article? N = 37 + 37 * .0975 = 40.6075 or N = 37 * (1+.0975) = 40.6075 Since the answer is in dollars, round appropriately to 2 decimal places. The final price of the article is $40.61
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Example 3

Reminder formulas:

In 1999, the number of crimes in Chicago was 231,265. Between 1999 and 2000 the number of crimes decreased 5%. How many crimes were committed in 2000? N = 231,265 - 231,265 * .05 = 219,701.75 or N = 231,265 * (1-.05) = 219,701.75 Since the answer is number of crimes, round appropriately to the nearest whole number. The number of crimes in 2000 was 219,701.

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Exponential growth or decay is increasing or decreasing by same percent over and over
If a quantity P is growing by r % each year, after one year there will be P*(1 + r)

So, P has been multiplied by the quantity 1 + r.

If P*(1 + r) is in turn increased by r percent, it will be multiplied by (1 + r) again. So after two years, P has become: P*(1+r)*(1+r) = P*(1 + r)2

So after 3 years, you have P*(1+r)3, and so on. Each year, the exponent increases by one since you are multiplying what you had previously by another (1+r).

If a quantity P is decreasing by r%, then by the same logic, the formula is P*(1 r).

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Example: A bacteria population is at 100 and is growing by 5% per minute. 2 questions: 1. How many bacteria cells are present after one hour? 2. How many minutes will it take for there to be 1000 cells. If the population is growing at 5% a minutes, this means it is being multiplied by 1.05 each minute. Using Excel, we can set up a table to calculate the population at each minute. Note that the time column begins with 0.

X Y minutes population 0 1 2 3 4 5

Reminder formula for calculating the new population after each period:

100 =B2*(1+.05)

y=P*(1 + r)
where P= starting (reference, old) value r= rate (percent change in decimals) y= the new value

The formula in the second cell of the column is the cell above it multiplied by 1 + the percent written as a decimal. (Note that you do not enter the exponent in the formula) Filling the column will give us the population at each minute.
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X Y minutes population 0 1 2 3 4 5
If you wanted to calculate the population after one hour (60 minutes), you could drag the columns of the excel table down to 60 or you could use the following formula which I refer to as the by hand formula. Note that here because you are doing the calculation in one step you do use the exponent. Y = P *(1+r)x Here x is the number of minutes. Therefore, the population after 60 minutes = y = 100*(1+.05)60 = 1868. (To enter an exponent in Excel use the ^ key which is above the number 6.) Remember to round your answer appropriately. For this example, we should round to the nearest whole number. If you wanted to know how long it would take for the population to reach 1000, you could set up the table in Excel and drag the columns down until the population (the Y value) reaches 1000. Doing so, you should find that the population will reach 1000 after 48 minutes. We will discuss a more mathematical and exact way to solve this problem in the near future.
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100 =B2*(1+.05)

Another example: Country A had population of 125 million in 1995. Its population was growing 2.1% a year. Country B had a population of 200 million in 1995. Its population was decreasing 1.2% a year. What are the populations of the countries this year? Has the population of country A surpassed the population of B? If not, in what year will the population of country A surpassed the population of B? Create your own Excel table. The formula in cell B3 is =B2*(1+0.021) and in C3 is =B2*(1-.012). Then each column is filled. Since the As population was not larger than Bs in 2006, the columns needed to be extended down farther.
year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 A 125 127.625 130.3051 133.0415 135.8354 138.6879 141.6004 144.574 147.6101 150.7099 153.8748 157.1061 160.4054 163.7739 167.2131 170.7246 B 200 197.6 195.2288 192.8861 190.5714 188.2846 186.0251 183.7928 181.5873 179.4083 177.2554 175.1283 173.0268 170.9505 168.8991 166.8723 Ozlem Elgun Prepared by

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Solving Exponential Equations

Remember that exponential equations are in the form: y = P(1+r)x

P is the initial (reference, old) value r is the rate, a.k.a. percent change (and it can be either positive or negative) x is time (years, minutes, hours, seconds decades etc) Y is the new value
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Solving for rate(percent change) and the initial value

Solving for the rate(percent change):

We already know that we solve for percent change between two values that are one time period apart:
difference new old PercentChange original old
year 1995 1996 population (in millions) 125 127.625 percent change (in decimal format) percent change (%) (127.625-125)/125= .021 2.1%

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Solving for the rate(percent change)

What if we had to solve for the rate (percent change) but the new value is not one time period but several time periods ahead? How do we solve for the rate then? Example: The population of country A was 125 million in 1995. In the year 2010 its population was 170.7246 million people. If we assume that the percent change (rate of population growth) was constant, at what rate did the population grew? reminder our formula is y = P*(1+r)x In this case: y= 170.7246 million P= 125 million x= number of time periods from the initial value to the new value=2010-1995=15 years Solve for r! 170.7246 = 125 *(1+r)15 170.7246/ 125 = (1+r)15 1.3657968 = (1+r)15 1.36579681/15 = (1+r) 1.020999994 =1+r 1.020999994 -1 = r 0.020999994 = r 0.021 = r 2.1% The population grew 2.1 percent every year in country A from 1995 to 2010.
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Solving for the initial value (a.k.a. old value, reference value)
What if we had to solve for the initial value? Example: The population of a country was 125 million in 1995. If we knew that the percent change (rate of population growth) was constant, and grew at a rate of 2.1 percent every year, what was its population in year 1990? reminder our formula is y = P*(1+r)x In this case: y= 125 million x= number of time periods from the initial value to the new value=1995-1990=5 years r=2.1% (0.021 in decimals) Solve for P! 125 = P*(1+0.021)5 125 = P*(1.021)5 125= P*1.109503586 125/1.109503586= P 112.6629977=P In year 1990, there were 112.66 million people in country A.

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Important reminder
You use y = P*(1+r)x formula if r is increasing yearly/monthly etc. and you are asked to calculate a value over a number of time periods.
Example: the population is growing at 0.01% yearly. The population is 1 million now; what will it be in 10 years?

You use y = P*(1+r) formula (without x) if you are given an r value that does not grow annually/monthly etc. but represents overall percent change across time.
Example: The population is was 1 million in 2000. It grew 15% in 10 years. What was the population in 2010?
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Solving for time (x) using Excel

Example: The population of Bengal tigers was 4700 in 2010. If we assume that the rate of population growth will remain constant, and will be at a rate of 2.3 percent every year, how many years have to pass for Bengal tiger population to reach 10,000?

bengal tiger percent year population change 2010 4700 0.023

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Solving for time (using logarithms)

To solve for time, you can get an approximation by using Excel. To solve an exponential equation algebraically for time, you must use logarithms. There are many properties associated with logarithms. We will focus on the following property: log ax = x * log a for a>0

This property is used to solve for the variable x (usually time), where x is the exponent.
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Solving time (x) with logarithms:

Example: The population of Bengal tigers was 4700 in 2010. If we assume that the rate of population growth will remain constant, and will be at a rate of 2.3 percent every year, how many years have to pass for Bengal tiger population to reach 10,000?
Start with : Y= P * (1 + r)X.

Fill the variables that you know. To use logarithms, x (time) must be your unknown quantity. y= 10000 P= 4700 R=0.023 Solve for x! The equation for this situationPrepared by Ozlem Elgun = 4700 * (1+0.023)X is: 10000

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Solving time (x) with logarithms: Continued. We need to solve for x: Step 1: divide both sides by 4700 10000/4700 = (1+0.023)X 2.12766 = (1+0.023)X USE THE LOG property you learned earlier Step 2: take the log of both sides log(2.12766) = log (1+0.023)X Step 3: bring the x down in front log(2.12766) = x * log (1+0.023) Step 4: divide both sides by log (1+.023) log(2.12766) /log(1+.023) = x to get 33.20316 log ax = x * log a for a>0

Step 5: Write out your answer in words:

If we assume that the rate of population growth will remain constant, and will be at a rate of 2.3 percent every year 33.2 years have to pass for Bengal tiger population to reach 10,000.
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Application of Exponential Models: Carbon Dating

A radioisotope is an atom with an unstable nucleus, which is a nucleus characterized by excess energy which is available to be imparted either to a newly-created radiation particle within the nucleus, or else to an atomic electron. The radioisotope, in this process, undergoes radioactive decay, and emits a gamma ray(s) and/or subatomic particles. These particles constitute ionizing radiation. Radioisotopes may occur naturally, but can also be artificially produced. Radiocarbon dating, or carbon dating, is a radiometric dating method that uses the naturally occurring radioisotope carbon-14 (14C) to determine the age of carbonaceous materials up to about 58,000 to 62,000 years One of the most frequent uses of radiocarbon dating is to estimate the age of organic remains from archaeological sites.
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 The Dead Sea Scrolls are a collection of 972 documents, including texts from the Hebrew Bible, discovered between 1946 and 1956 in eleven caves in and around the ruins of the ancient settlement of Khirbet Qumran on the northwest shore of the Dead Sea in the West Bank. We date the Dead Sea Scrolls which have about 78% of the normally occurring amount of Carbon 14 in them. Carbon 14 decays at a rate of about 1.202% per 100 years. I make a table of the form.
Years (after death) 0 100 200 . . % Carbon remaining 100 98.798 percent change -0.01202 percent change (%) -1.202%

Using excel and extending the table we find that the Dead Sea Scrolls would date from between 2100 to 2000 years ago.

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Years (after death) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200

% Carbon remaining percent change 100 98.798 -0.01202 97.61044804 -0.01202 96.43717045 -0.01202 95.27799567 -0.01202 94.13275416 -0.01202 93.00127845 -0.01202 91.88340309 -0.01202 90.77896458 -0.01202 89.68780143 -0.01202 88.60975405 -0.01202 87.54466481 -0.01202 86.49237794 -0.01202 85.45273956 -0.01202 84.42559763 -0.01202 83.41080194 -0.01202 82.4082041 -0.01202 81.41765749 -0.01202 80.43901725 -0.01202 79.47214026 -0.01202 78.51688513 -0.01202 77.57311217 Ozlem Elgun -0.01202 Prepared by 76.64068337 -0.01202

percent change (%) -1.202% -1.202% -1.202% -1.202% -1.202% -1.202% -1.202% -1.202% -1.202% -1.202% -1.202% -1.202% -1.202% -1.202% -1.202% -1.202% -1.202% -1.202% -1.202% -1.202% -1.202% 31 -1.202%

Use logarithms to solve for time

When were the dead sea scrolls created? 78 = 100*(1-0.01202)X .78=(0.98798) X Log (.78)= x*log (0.98798) -0.107905397= x*(-0.005251847) -0.107905397/-0.005251847=x 20.546=x Since x is in units of 100 years Dead Sea Scrolls date back 2054.6 years (Current estimates are that a 95% confidence interval for their date is 150 BC to 5 BC)
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Activity 3, Question 1: Beryllium-11 is a radioactive isotope of the alkaline metal Beryllium. Beryllium-11 decays at a rate of 4.9% every second.
a) Assuming you started with 100%, what percent of the beryllium-11 would be remaining after 10 seconds? Either copy and paste the table or show the equation used to answer the question. y = 100*(1-0.049)10 =100*(0.951) 10 Y=60.51
seconds 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 % Beryllium 11 remainig 100 95.1 90.4401 86.0085351 81.79411688 77.78620515 73.9746811 70.34992173 66.90277556 63.62453956 60.50693712 percent change -0.049 -0.049 -0.049 -0.049 -0.049 -0.049 -0.049 -0.049 -0.049 -0.049 percent change (%) -4.9% -4.9% -4.9% -4.9% -4.9% -4.9% -4.9% -4.9% -4.9% -4.9%

60.61 % Beryllium-11 remains after 10 seconds.

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Activity 3, Question 1 Beryllium-11 is a radioactive isotope of the alkaline metal Beryllium. Beryllium-11 decays at a rate of 4.9% every second. b) How long would it take for half of the beryllium-11 to decay? This time is called the half life. (Use the "solve using logs" process to answer the question) Show your work. 50 =100*(1-0.049) X .50 =(0.951) X Log (.50) = x*log (0. 951) -0.301029996= x*(-0.021819483) -0.301029996 /-0.021819483=x 13.796=x It would take 13.796 seconds for Beryllium-11 to reach its half life.

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