Announcements (2of2)

Target Dates: STAY ON TARGET!

You should be finishing the Distributions slice
VoD 5. Normal Calculations, 17. Binomial
Distributions, and 18. The Sample Mean and
Control Charts,
Quiz 3: Thurs-Fri March 13th-14th

o

X
Population
Sample
Sampling
Distribution

X
size = n

o
X
=
o
n
Standard Error
sample statistic (a random variable!)
(of the mean)
Shape of the Sampling
Distribution?
If population distribution is normal:
Sampling distribution is normal (for any n)
If sample size (n) is large:
Sampling distribution approaches normal
Central Limit Theorem
As sample size (n) increases:
Sampling distribution becomes more normal
Variance (and thus std. dev.) decreases
Great, Normal Distributions!
Can now calculate probabilities like:



Just convert values of interst to z scores
(standard normal distribution)

And then look up probabilities for that z score in
ALEKS (calculator)
Or vice versa

z =
x
o
So far
Weve been doing things like:
Given a certain population, whats prob of
getting a sample statistic above/below a
certain value?
Population--->Sample
How can we shift to
Using our Sample to reason about the
POPULATION?
Sample--->Population
INFERENTIAL STATISTICS!
Estimating a population parameter (e.g.,
the mean of the pop.: )
How to do it:
Take a random sample from the pop.
Calculate sample statistic (e.g., the mean of
the sample: )
Thats your estimate.
Class dismissed.

X
No, wait!
The sample statistic
is a point estimate of
the population parameter
It could be off, by a little, or by a lot!

X

o

X
Population
Sample
Sampling
Distribution

X
size = n
(of the mean) We only have one
sample statistic.
And we dont know
where in here it falls.
Interval Estimate
Point estimate (sample statistic) gives us
no idea of how close we might be to the
true population parameter.
We want to be able to specify some
interval around our point estimate that will
have a high prob. of containing the true
pop parameter.
Confidence Interval
An interval around the sample statistic that
would capture the true population
parameter a certain percent of the time
(e.g., 95%) in the long run.
(i.e., over all samples of the same size, from
the same population)
o

X

This is the mean
from one sample.
Lets put a 90%
Confidence Interval
around it.
Note: True Population
Parameter is constant!
Note that this particular
interval captures
the true mean!
Lets consider other possible samples
(of the SAME SIZE)
o

X

The mean
from another
possible sample.
This one captures
the true mean too.
So does this one.
And this one.
This one too.
Yep.
This interval misses
the true mean!
But this ones alright.

A 90% Confidence
Interval means that
for 90% of all
possible samples
(of the same size),
that interval around
the sample statistic
will capture the true
population parameter
(e.g., mean).
Only sample statistics
in the outer 10% of
the sampling
distribution have
confidence intervals
that miss the true
population parameter.
o

But, remember
But, remember

X
Sample
size = n
All that we have is our sample.

X
Sample
size = n
Still, a Confidence Interval is more useful
in estimating the population parameter
than is a mere point estimate alone.
So, how do we make em?
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
(1 - o)% confidence interval for a population parameter
Note: o = P(Confidence Interval misses true population parameter

)
Point
estimate

critical
value
Std. dev. of
point estimate

P( C. I. encloses true population parameter

) = 1 - o
Proportion of times such a CI misses the population parameter
sample statistic
Margin of Error
ex:

X
(aka Standard Error)
standard deviation of
sampling distribution

z
o / 2

t
o/ 2
or
Decision Tree
for Confidence Intervals
Population
Standard Deviation
known?
Yes
No
Pop. Distribution
normal?
n large?
(CLT)
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
z-score
z-score
Cant do it
Cant do it
t-score
t-score
Critical
Score
Note: ALEKS
Standard normal
distribution
t distribution
C.I. using Standard Normal
Distribution
For the Population Mean

First, choose an o level.
For ex., =.05 gives us a 95% confidence interval.
Point
estimate

critical
value
Std. dev. of
point estimate

Margin of Error
When o known.
C.I. using Standard Normal
Distribution
For the Population Mean

First, choose an o level.
For ex., =.05 gives us a 95% confidence interval.

critical
value
Std. dev. of
point estimate

Margin of Error

X
When o known.
C.I. using Standard Normal
Distribution
For the Population Mean

First, choose an o level.
For ex., =.05 gives us a 95% confidence interval.

critical
value

Margin of Error

X

o
n
When o known.
C.I. using Standard Normal
Distribution
For the Population Mean

First, choose an o level.
For ex., =.05 gives us a 95% confidence interval.


Margin of Error

X

o
n
When o known.

z
o / 2
Lookup value
(ALEKS calculator,
Z tables)
.10 if = o
.05 if = o
.01 if = o
Confidence % 90
Confidence % 95
Confidence % 99

z
o/ 2
=1.645

z
o/ 2
=1.960

z
o/ 2
=2.576
value critical
.05 upper
value critical
.025 upper
value critical
.005 upper
Handy Zs
(Thanks, Standard Normal Distribution!)
C.I. using Standard Normal
Distribution
For the Population Mean



Margin of Error

X

o
n
When o known.

z
o / 2

X z
o / 2
( )
o
n
|
\

|
.
|
is a 1o confidence interval of

Furthermore, in that case,
P X z
o / 2
( )
o
n
|
\

|
.
|
s s X + z
o / 2
( )
o
n
|
\

|
.
|



(

(
=1o
Remember:
random variable
C.I. using t Distribution
For the Population Mean



Margin of Error

X
When o unknown!
C.I. using t Distribution
For the Population Mean



Margin of Error

X

s
n
When o unknown!
We use the standard deviation from our sample (s)
to estimate the population std. dev. (o).

s =
x
i
x
( )
2

n 1
The n-1 is an adjustment to
make s an unbiased estimator
of the population std. dev.
C.I. using t Distribution
For the Population Mean



Margin of Error

X

s
n
When o unknown!

t
o/ 2
Critical value taken from a t distribution, not standard normal.
The goodness of our estimate of o will depend on our sample size (n).
So the exact shape of any given t distribution depends on degrees of
freedom (which is derived from sample size: n-1, here).
Fortunately, we can still just LOOK UP the critical values
(just need to additionally plug in degrees freedom)
Behavior of C.I.
As Confidence (1-o) goes UP
Intervals get WIDER
(ex: 90% vs 99%)
As Population Std. Dev. (o) goes UP
Intervals get WIDER
As Sample Size (n) goes UP
Intervals get NARROWER


o
n
Std dev of sampling
distribution of the mean
C. I. for Differences
(e.g., of Population Means)
Same approach.
Key is:
Treat the DIFFERENCE between sample
means as a single random variable, with its
own sampling distribution & everything.

The difference between population means is a
constant (unknown to us).

X
1
X
2
( )

o


X