The Challenges and Risks

John Drexhage Director, Climate Change and Energy International Institute for Sustainable Development

Carbon Trading:

Agriculture and Carbon Management Workshop February 11, 2003 Winnipeg, Manitoba

Overview
Key Characteristics of a Carbon Market

Unique Challenges
Strategies for Risk Minimization Influence of the International Negotiations

Characteristics of Carbon Credits

Credits or Offsets can come from:
Reductions Removals (sequestration of carbon)

Should be in compliance with the Kyoto Protocol -- e.g.:

Based on net atmospheric reductions Additional Address leakage

The Carbon Market System

The structure of a carbon market system for Canada is currently being developed. Assume that it will be based on:
1. Compliance with the rules and mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol 2. An open market in which the agricultural sector does not have emission reduction targets 3. Technically credible, quantified credits verified by a third party.

What are the Risks?

Those common to any new commodity
Price risk Barriers to entry General performance risk

Unique challenges
Measurement Permanence

Challenges of Carbon Markets

Measurement:
Baselines Verification Monitoring Compliance

Additionality emission reduction or removal

must be in addition to what would have occurred in a business-as-usual scenario.

Permanence as stored carbon may be

released in the future, how do you ensure that carbon credits reflect real emission reductions?

Absence of Market Structure

Key questions to be addressed include:
Definition of an Emission Reduction
Direct reductions Indirect reductions

Ownership
What if the land manager is different from the land owner? Is soil a public good or a private good?

Timeliness of Credits
Bankability
The ability of credit generators to bank credits for use in future years.

Credit for Early Action

Will credit be given for actions that reduced or removed emissions prior to the establishment of regulations? Unlikely.

Future Liability
What happens if an emissions cap is put on the agricultural sector?

Risk Minimization
May be achieved through:

Use of premium credits

Real, verified and additional

Partial Sale of Credits

Maintain your own bank

Government Purchase

Potential Marketing Systems

Use of an Aggregator
Collective marketing of credits E.g.: Pacific Northwest Direct Seed Association

Leasing Carbon Removals

Lease credits to the buyer for a set period of time May renew contract at end of period

Options Contracts
Pay for the option of buying or selling credits in the future

Canadas System
The market system put in place by Canada is likely to be influence by decisions made in relation to the use of sinks within the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

Two main options:

Temporary credits Insurance

Temporary Credits
Proposed by Columbia (2000) and the EU (2002) The EU Approach:
Issue a temporary credit when have verified a carbon stock increase of 1 t of CO2 Temporary credit expires at the end of five years or the Commitment Period, which ever is earlier The temporary credit may be retired by (e.g.) Canada to meet its Kyoto Protocol target In the next Commitment Period Canada would compensate for the temporary credit through the purchase of another credit When the credit expires, the original seller can re-verify and have a new temporary credit issued (again for a maximum of five years)

Insurance
Provide insurance against the risk of carbon credits losing their value due to the loss of the sink. Proposed by Canada (2002)
Sellers can purchase insurance for replacement of the sink or the credits Seller can self-insure by keeping credits in reserve.

Uncertainty regarding insurance industrys interest in this approach

Conclusions
There are a number of uncertainties and risk associated with the carbon market at present.
These will be reduced as a credible marketing system is put in place

Need a carbon marketing system that:

Is based on real, verifiable credits Ensures that risk is not borne exclusively by the seller, but is also attractive to buyers