The Sustainability of Americas Fisheries: Will all fish really be gone by 2048?

Ray Hilborn School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences University of Washington

The end of the line

Mara from Nature 2005

fishing in the ocean is no longer sustainable. Worldwide, we have failed to manage the oceans fisheries in a few decades, there may be no fisheries left to manage. So what should be done? Incessant hunting, with increasing technological proficiency, has decimated fish populations worldwide. Catches of large marine species, such as swordfish and tuna, have declined by 80% over the past 20 years. Northern cod, historically a dietary mainstay, and a species once thought inexhaustible, is all but commercially extinct in the western North Atlantic. In many areas, bottom trawls have scoured the seabed clean. These are just a few examples of the long and miserable record of hunting in the oceans.

Pauly 1998 Fishing Down Food Webs

We fish the large fish first, then move down to smaller fish --- we will end up with nothing but jellyfish

Nature 2003
The large fish of the oceans were depleted 80-90% by 1980

All fish gone by 2048

Science 2006

307 Citations

The Myths
We are fishing down food chains and will have nothing but jellyfish 80-90% of the large fish of the ocean were gone by 1980 If current trends continue all stocks will be collapsed by 2048

NCEAS working group: Finding common ground in marine conservation and management

Stock assessments
Building a data base of abundance, catch, fishing mortality, recruitment and SSB from as many stock assessments as possible the RAM Myers Legacy Project So far about 350 stocks

1980

2005

1970

New England Groundfish Biomass 1985-2007

Fishing Pressure

Maximum Sustainable Yield

Stock Size

Stock Size below target level

Stock Size above target level

Stock Size

Fishing Pressure

Exploitation Rate Higher Than Target Level

Exploitation Rate Below TargetLevel

Fishing Pressure

Overfished and overfishing

Overfishing

Over fished

Fully Exploited

Under exploited

Stock Size

Fishing Pressure

Current and Future Problem

Possible Future Problem

Current Problem Better Future

Okay

Okay

Stock Size

Assessed stocks in industrial and developed countries

Fishing Pressure

Stock Size

From Worm et al. 2009

Assessed stocks in industrial and developed countries

Fishing Pressure

Problem Stocks

Stock Size

From Worm et al. 2009

Rebuilding Stocks

A detailed history of the demersal species of the west coast U.S.

Overfished and overfishing

Overfishing

Overfished

2,500,000

Groundfish off west coast

Yellowtail rockfish Gopher rockfish Shortspine thornyhead Starry flounder S

Total abundance

2,000,000

Starry flounder N Petrale sole S Petrale sole N Lingcod S Lingcod N Longspine thornyhead Kelp greenling Dover sole Blue rockfish Blackgill rockfish Yelloweye rockfish
Widow rockfish Sablefish Pacific ocean perch Longnose skate English sole Darkblotched rockfish Cowcod Chilipepper Canary rockfish Bocaccio Blue rockfish

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

Black rockfish S

1950

1952

1960

1962

1968

1970

1972

1978

1980

1988

1990

1998

2000

1954

1956

1958

1964

1966

1974

1976

1982

1984

1986

1992

1994

1996

2002

2004

Black rockfish N

The common ground (for the fisheries examined)

Fishing has reduced the abundance in most ecosystems, and caused collapse of a significant fraction of stocks BUT this is expected when maximizing sustainable yield, and heavily fished ecosystems appear to stabilize and be sustainable in their transformed condition

Correcting the myths

Myth I. We begin fishing large valuable fish and move down the food web, ending up with jellyfish Two papers from the Worm et al group
Sethi et al showed that there is no correlation between price and trophic level or between trophic level and when a fishery begins Branch et al showed the MTL in catch is increasing, not declining, and the results of Pauly et al. 1998 cannot be replicated

Global catch MTL

Paulys 1998 data on mean trophic level

Pauly et al. (1998)

Global catch MTL

Current data

Pauly et al. (1998)

Branch et al. (2010) Nature 468:431-435

Myth II. The large fish of the ocean were 90% depleted by 1980

World catch of Tuna and Billfish

6,000,000 5,000,000
Longbill spearfish Black skipjack Atlantic white marlin

4,000,000

Blackfin tuna Black marlin Billfishes Striped marlin

3,000,000

Pacific bluefin tuna Atlantic blue marlin Southern bluefin tuna Northern bluefin tuna

2,000,000

Swordfish Tunas, bonitos, billfishes Frigate tuna

1,000,000

Albacore Bigeye tuna Yellowfin tuna

Skipjack tuna

1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

Abundance of tuna and billfish

16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000

SPC-YFINCWPAC-1952-2006-JENSEN SPC-SKJCWPAC-1972-2007-JENSEN

10,000,000

SPC-BIGEYEWPO-1952-2007-JENSEN SPC-ALBASPAC-1959-2007-JENSEN ICCAT-YFINATL-1970-2006-JENSEN

8,000,000

ICCAT-SWORDSATL-1950-2005-JENSEN ICCAT-SWORDNATL-1978-2007-JENSEN

6,000,000

ICCAT-SKJWATL-1952-2006-JENSEN ICCAT-SKJEATL-1950-2006-JENSEN ICCAT-BIGEYEATL-1950-2005-JENSEN

4,000,000

ICCAT-ATBTUNAEATL-1969-2007-WORM
ICCAT-ALBANATL-1929-2005-WORM

2,000,000

1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004

The large fish of the ocean were 90% depleted by 1980

The major tuna fisheries of the world (except bluefin) are not overfished in 2010
Some are less than BMSY but not significantly so Most are near BMSY Even Bluefin were not overfished in 1980

Catches since 1980 have been 3 times the catches prior to 1980

Myth III. All fish will be gone by 2048

Worm et al. 2009 showed that exploitation rates had been reduced to MSY levels in most of the areas for which we had data For these areas rebuilding is happening not continued depletion

What policies work to rebuild industrial fisheries?

Worm et al 2009 suggests the existing toolbox is sufficient There is no silver bullet Neither MPAs or ITQs were either necessary or sufficient A broad range of tools including catch and effort limitation, temporary or seasonal closed areas, effort restrictions

Fisheries have environmental impacts

Abundance is reduced Some species will be depleted Ecosystems will be changed

From the MSC web site

PRINCIPLE 2: Fishing operations should allow for the maintenance of the structure, productivity, function and diversity of the ecosystem (including habitat and associated dependent and ecologically related species) on which the fishery depends.

What is the environmental cost of organic vegetable production

Fisheries may have less biodiversity cost than organic agriculture

How have fisheries been vilified

Foundations and NGOs have spent over 100 million per year on marine issues Ocean campaigns with gloom and doom are a major fundraiser BUT The data have begun to convince many NGOs and Foundations that many fisheries are well managed and sustainable

World War I poster

Oxford University Press publication date March 2012

References

Worm, B., Hilborn, and 19 others. 2009. Rebuilding Global Fisheries. Science. 325: 578-585. Branch, T. A., Jensen, O. P., Ricard, D., Ye, Y., and Hilborn, R. 2011. Contrasting Global Trends in Marine Fishery Status Obtained from Catches and from Stock Assessments. Conservation Biology. DOI: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01687.x. Branch, T. A., Watson, R., Fulton, E. A., Jennings, S., McGilliard, C. R., Pablico, G. T., and Ricard, D. 2010. The trophic fingerprint of marine fisheries. Nature. 468: 431435. Sethi, S. A., Branch, T. A., and Watson, R. 2010. Global fishery development patterns are driven by profit but not trophic level. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 107: 12163-12167. Hutchings, J. A., Minto, C., Ricard, D., Baum, J. K., and Jensen, O. P. 2010. Trends in abundance of marine fishes. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 67: 1205-1210. Hilborn, R., Stewart, I. J., Branch, T. A., and Jensen, O. P. In Press. Defining tradeoffs among between conservation of species diversity abundances, profitability, and food security in the California Current bottom- trawl fishery. Conservation Biology.