Chapter 6

Environmental Risk Analysis

2004 Thomson Learning/South-Western

Concept of Risk

Risk the chance of something bad happening

Dealing with risk involves two tasks: Identifying the degree Responding to it Policymaker must use a systematic assessment of risk before devising a policy response

Concept of Risk

Classifying Risk: Voluntary and Involuntary Risk

Voluntary risk a risk that is deliberately assume at an individual level Involuntary risk a risk beyond ones control and not the result of a willful decision

Concept of Risk

Defining Environmental Risk

Environmental risk the probability that damage will occur due to exposure to an environmental hazard Hazard the source of the environmental damage Exposure the pathways between the source of the damage and the affected population or resource

Risk Assessment in Environmental Decision Making

Risk assessment qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the risk posed to health or the ecology by an environmental hazard

Hazard identification scientific analysis to determine whether a causal relationship exists between a pollutant and any adverse effects

Risk Assessment in Environmental Decision Making

Figure 6.1 Risk Assessment Process

Risk Assessment in Environmental Decision Making

Methods of identifying environmental hazards Case clusters study based on observation of abnormal patters of health patterns within some population group Animal bioassay a study based on the comparative results of laboratory experiments on living organisms both before and after exposure to a given hazard Epidemiology the study of the causes and distribution of disease in human populations based on characteristics such as age, gender, occupation, and economic status
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Risk Assessment in Environmental Decision Making

Dose-Response Analysis a quantitative relationship between doses of a contaminant and the corresponding reactions

Threshold the level of exposure to a hazard up to which no response exists Two types of extrapolations High-to-low dose extrapolation adjusts for the high exposure levels used in laboratory or other test conditions Laboratory-to-natural extrapolation infers how the effects observed in the laboratory would differ under conditions existing in nature
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Risk Assessment in Environmental Decision Making

Figure 6.2 Hypothetical Dose-Response Relationships

Risk Assessment in Environmental Decision Making

Exposure Analysis characterizes the sources of an environmental hazard, concentration levels at that point, pathways, and any sensitivities

Risk Characterization description of risk based upon an assessment of a hazard and exposure to that hazard Quantitatively identifies magnitude of the risk and a way to compare one risk to another Qualitatively gives context to the numerical risk value
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Risk Management in Environmental Decision Making: Responding to Risk

Risk Management the decision-making process of evaluating and choosing from alternative responses to environmental risk

Two major tasks: Determining what level of risk is acceptable to society Evaluating and selecting the best policy instrument to achieve that risk level

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Risk Management in Environmental Decision Making: Responding to Risk

Tasks of Risk Management

Determining Acceptable Risk Acceptable risk the amount of risk determined to be tolerable for society De minimis risk a negligible level of risk such that reducing it further would not justify the costs of doing so Evaluating and Selecting a Policy Instrument

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Risk Management in Environmental Decision Making: Responding to Risk

Risk Management Strategies

Considerations in selection of risk management strategy: The level of risk established The benefits that accrue to society from adopting the policy The associated costs of implementing the policy Prevalent risk management strategies: Comparative risk analysis Risk-benefit analysis Benefit-cost analysis
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Risk Management in Environmental Decision Making: Responding to Risk

Comparative risk analysis an evaluation of relative risk Risk-benefit analysis an assessment of risks of a hazard along with the benefits to society of not regulating that hazard Benefit-cost analysis a strategy that compares the MSB of a risk reduction policy to the associated MSC

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