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Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation. According to the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global surface temperature increased 0.74 0.18 C (1.33 0.32 F) during the 20th century. Most of the observed temperature increase since the middle of the 20th century has been caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, which result from human activity such as the burning of fossil fuel and deforestation. Global dimming, a result of increasing concentrations of atmospheric aerosols that block sunlight from reaching the surface, has partially countered the effects of warming induced by greenhouse gases.
Temperature changes
Evidence for warming of the climate system includes observed increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. The most common measure of global warming is the trend in globally averaged temperature near the Earth's surface.
CLIMATE MODELS
The main tools for projecting future climate changes are mathematical models based on physical principles including fluid dynamics, thermodynamics and radioactive transfer. Although they attempt to include as many processes as possible, simplifications of the actual climate system are inevitable because of the constraints of available computer power and limitations in knowledge of the climate system
SOLAR VARIATIONS
Variations in solar output have been the cause of past climate changes. The effect of changes in solar forcing in recent decades is uncertain, but small, with some studies showing a slight cooling effect, while others studies suggest a slight warming effect
SOCIAL SYSTEM
There is some evidence of regional climate change affecting systems related to human activities, including agricultural and forestry management activities at higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Future climate change is expected to particularly affect some sectors and systems related to human activities. Lowlying coastal systems are vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge. Human health will be at increased risk in populations with limited capacity to adapt to climate change.
The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896
Ecological system
In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring events, and pole ward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming. Future climate change is expected to particularly affect certain ecosystems, including tundra, mangroves, and coral reefs. It is expected that most ecosystems will be affected by higher atmospheric CO2 levels, combined with higher global temperatures. Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species and reduced diversity of ecosystems.