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Statistical Principles in Dendrochronology

1. Statistical distributions

• Why are we interested in “average” growing conditions


over time?
• Average = SIGNAL. Means we must shoot for an average
or mean when we sample.
• Suggests we also must know the variability about this
mean.
• Which means we must be familiar with statistical
distributions, which are defined by mean and variance:
• e.g., the normal distribution, the t-distribution, the z-
distribution, the Weibull distribution
1. Statistical distributions

• population
• samples are drawn
• uncertainty = sampling error = noise
• maximize signal (= average), minimize noise
• be aware of sampling bias: examples?
• easy access
• physical limitations (altitude, health)
• low budget
• downright laziness!
1. Statistical distributions

• samples are drawn


from a population
• descriptive statistics are
calculated (e.g. mean, median,
mode, standard deviation,
minimum, maximum,
range)
• frequency distribution
is calculated
2. Central Limit Theorem

a. Sample statistics have distributions.


b. These are normally distributed (considers both mean
and variance).
c. As one increases sample size, our sample statistic
approaches the population statistic.

Example: from a population of five trees, we can only


sample three. For the year 1842, the five trees had the
following ring widths:
0.50 0.75 1.00 1.50 2.00
population mean = ?
average of all sample means = ?
2. Central Limit Theorem

population mean = 1.15


(0.50+0.75+1.00)/3 = 0.75 0.50
(0.50+0.75+1.50)/3 = 0.92
(0.50+0.75+2.00)/3 = 1.08 0.75
(0.50+1.00+1.50)/3 = 1.00
(0.50+1.00+2.00)/3 = 1.17
(0.50+1.50+2.00)/3 = 1.33 1.00
(0.75+1.00+1.50)/3 = 1.08
(0.75+1.50+2.00)/3 = 1.42 1.50
(1.00+1.50+2.00)/3 = 1.50
average of all sample means = 2.00
1.14 (rounding error here)
2. Central Limit Theorem

Sample size means everything! The more samples one


collects, the closer one obtains information on the
population itself!

a. Average conditions
become more prominent.
b. The variability about the
mean becomes less
prominent.
c. Notice relationship with
S/N ratio! Signal
increases while noise
decreases!
3. Sampling Design

• A procedure for selecting events from a population

• Pilot sample (or pretest)


• Simple random sample
• random number generators are handy for x/y
selection

X
3. Sampling Design

• Systematic random sample


• select k-th individual from gridded population
• lay out a line = transect, sample individual nearest
the pre-selected point

x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x
3. Sampling Design

• Stratified random sample


• population is layered into strata and then we
conduct random or systematic sampling within each
cell
3. Sampling Design

• Stratified, systematic, unaligned = point sampling


• Hybrid technique, favored among geographers

8 4 5 1
8
1
9
5
2
3. Sampling Design

• Stratified, systematic, unaligned = point sampling


• Hybrid technique, favored among geographers

8 4 5 1
8
1
9
5
2
3. Sampling Design

•Transect = line sampling, but must have a


random component! (How can this be
accomplished?)
•Many variations:
• Sample all individuals along the transect (row
• Sample quadrats along the transect (row 2)
1)
• Sample all individuals within a belt (row 3)

x x x x x x x

x xx x x x x x x x
x x
3. Sampling Design
•Targeted sampling = non-random sampling
•Is this a legitimate technique?
•It is often necessary because of:
• Time constraints
• Budget constraints
• Lack of field labor
• Physical limitations of field labor
• Topographic limitations
•Advantages?
• Maximize information with minimum resources
• Target areas where samples are known to exist
• Less time needed and less money wasted
3. Sampling Design
•Targeted sampling = non-random sampling
•Used in practically all types of dendro research:
fire history, climate reconstruction, insect outbreak
studies, …
3. Sampling Design

• Specifically sample only trees that have best record of


fire scars. (dots = trees, circles = trees collected with fire
scars, X’s = fire scars, but not sampled = poor record.)
• What issues must we consider? Topography, slope,
aspect, hydrology, tree density: all affect susceptibility to
scarring by fire.

X X
X

X
X
X
X
X

Shallow slope area Valley bottom Steep


slope area
3. Sampling Design

• Complete inventory is possible


• Sample all trees that have fire scars, regardless of
number of scars or quality of preservation, but …
• Not very efficient (time, money, labor)
• Benefits are considerable, though.

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