Logical Thinking Seminar

LightHouse
Business Thinking １
Enhancement Seminar

Prepared by
Sugiyama Management Development Ltd (SMD)
Logical Thinking- How useful to
your future career

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 Index
Introduction10min
Objective of the seminar10min
ⅠImportance of Logical Thinking10min
ⅡCause-effect Relationship20min
Ⅲ Sorting the Issues － 1hour
Ⅳ Identifying the Problem － 1hour

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 Introduction
Why can’t you see?!

　 Have you ever had a case like these?

・ I explained thoroughly but was misunderstood.

・ My boss never approve my idea.
・ My superiors don’t understand the necessity of making a new
approach to our problems.
・ I thought I knew the issue well, but after the question, I lost my
way.
・ Nobody understands that the issue is too complex to solve.

Logical Thinking is one way to look for ways to solve these

predicaments.
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 Objective of the Seminar

To become capable of:

１． Understand the situation in logical way.
２． Sort out one’s own opinion in logical way.
３． Identify the problem in logical way.
４． Think up how to solve the problem in logical way.
５． Communicating one’s idea in logical way.
in an ordinary business context.

Logical Thinking is: Methodology and training to enable

logical thinking.

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Ⅰ ． Importance of Logical Thinking
Ⅰ. Importance of Logical Thinking
・ On surface, everybody seems to agree on what is being discussed
but actually they are thinking differently.
・ We do not pursue what is really important but unwittingly tackle
something that we are used to or what we like.
・ We seemed to work on the same thing but the objective was
different.

We cannot achieve the objective nor engage in fruitful discussion when above are
the case. In business in particular, it is critical that we talk in such way that the
content can be agreed by a third party to secure efficiency, effectiveness and
persuasiveness. In decision making, too, we should focus on the plan and
probability rather than relying on chance to achieve the objective.

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Ⅰ. Importance of Logical Thinking
In business, Logical Thinking is the basis to
decide the development and success of all:

◆Communication

◆Persuasion

◆Understanding

◆Thinking

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Ⅰ. Importance of Logical Thinking
• Exercise 1: Recall a case in the daily work in which
① Communication was difficult
② Persuasion was difficult.
③ You were not understood appropriately.
and try to share the experience among the group. Choose one example
and discuss and decide the reason why things did not work out.

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Ⅱ ． Cause-Effect Relation
 Ⅱ. Cause-Effect Relation
１． What is Cause-Effect Relation?
Cause-effect relation is the relation of cause and effect. Instinctively, it is simple
concept but there are things that we perceive as cause and effect without any
justifiable reason.

Example: The revenue does not rise because the economy is slow.
This is superficially agreeable logic but there are many companies succeeding in
slow economy. Saying “because economy is slow…” may save the day but there
may be no truth to it. The truth maybe that the way of conducting business is
wrong.

２． What happens if we understand the cause-effect relation correctly?

Learning the cause-effect relation means learning the truth. That’s the starting
point of discussion and problem solution.

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 Ⅱ. Cause-Effect Relation
３． Pattern of cause-effect relation
There are some patterns in the relation.

① Simple cause-effect relation

Cause A Result B
When one cause is causing only one result. When result B is evident, there
is always the cause A.

② Cyclic cause-effect relation

Cause A Result B Cause A

When a cause A leads to result B, but the result B in turn causes cause A. A and B
form a cycle that makes it difficult to tell which is cause and which is result. This
relation happens not just between A and B but can have more events in between as in
A→B→C→D→A.

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 Ⅱ. Cause-Effect Relation
③ Complex cause-effect relation

Cause A Result B Result Ｄ

Result Ｅ

Result Ｃ Result Ｆ

Result Ｇ

The cause-effect relation is there but the relation is interwoven in a complex

way. In this kind of situation, finding the cause from one result is extremely
difficult.

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 Ⅱ. Cause-Effect Relation
４． Identifying cause-effect relation

Check Points are:

① If the chronological order is correct

Naturally, the cause should precede result. Events should be examined of their
timeline of occurrence.

② If there is correlation
There is correlation when something changes and the change triggers another change.
Where there is cause-effect relation, there is correlation, too.

③ If there is another reason

Even if two events takes place in chronological order and there is correlation, they do
not automatically prove the cause-effect relation. It could be that between event A
and B there is a true cause C which causes A first and then B later. Without
identifying C, there appears to be cause-effect relation between A and B.

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 Ⅱ. Cause-Effect Relation
④ If careful examination is there

Assumption, observation, insight:

Utilize not just available data but one’s own reasoning, observation and
insight to see if there is overlooked event or factor.

Flexibility:
Do not get caught in conventional wisdom and explore possibilities from
different angles. It could be that the hypothesis is wrong.

Knowledge, experience, logical framework:

Try to construct the logic based on individual’s knowledge or experience or
on historically established or generally accepted as reliable framework in
order to secure accountability.

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 Ⅱ. Cause-Effect Relation
５． Frequently encountered errors
① Mistake preconception as objective truth.
Example: “Poverty breeds crime.” Clarify what is “poverty” and what is “crime.”

② Generalize one’s personal set of value.

Example: “I get motivated when tackling challenging work. Therefore, the harder
the objective, the harder people would work.” Something that motivated one
person does not necessary motivate other people, too.

③ Restate the commonly accepted facts.

Example: “Seniority system lowered Japan’s productivity.” It used to be said that
“Seniority system is one of the secret that supported Japanese companies’
strength.”

④ Hasten conclusion from superficial facts.

Example: “Offence took place due to lack of compliance rules.” There are many
companies that violate law even though they have compliance rules.
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 Ⅱ. Cause-Effect Relation
Changeofthe
Exercise : Discuss if “the number topic
passengers declined because the fare was
raised.” is cause-effect relation. Try to explain the answer (“yes” or
“no”) in logical way.

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Ⅲ ． Sorting the Issues
 Ⅲ ． Structural Thinking Part １
Sort the Issues
１． What is Structural Thinking?
① Relation of entire events.
When there are multiple events (factors) concerned, try to group them to
visualize the larger picture.

Example: The number of auto accidents have increased. However, the

accidents should be classified into injury accident, one-car accident,
multiple-car accident, etc.

② Cause-effect relation
Examine if the events are in cause-effect relation.

③ Weight the importance of individual factors

First, reconfirm the objective of sorting. Based on the objective,
prioritize the factors in order of significance.

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 Ⅲ ． Structural Thinking Part １
Sort the Issues
２． Structuring the Events
① Fact finding
This is a process to search, collect and sort facts that would lead to or affect the problem.
Example: Labor issues
What labor issues do we have?
Do we have any labor issue in our workplace?
When “accidents take place, ” is that true? What kind of accidents are they? How
frequently and where do they take place?
Labor issues are often accompanied with “absenteeism,” “inferior work
environment,” “excess overtime.” Are they present, too?
② Basic analysis
Further examine the collected facts and information. Sort them to see what could be the
cause of the problem.
Example: Initial assumption was that accidents take place in workplace with excess
overtime but actual survey revealed that accidents are frequent in dark environments. Such
places tend to have higher rate of absence.
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Ⅲ ． Structural Thinking Part １
Sort the Issues
③ Structuring the event as assumption
Try to come up with the logic to explain the cause-effect relation of the problem
taking into account the result of basic analysis.

Example: Dark workplace→Work accident→Shortage of worker→Hire part-

time→Ample unskilled workers→Accident take place
→Busy full-timers→Low motivation→Absence

④ Research, analysis and re-structuring to test the validity of assumption

Test the validity of assumption. If the facts cannot be explained with the
assumption, different assumption has to be thought up.

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 Ⅲ ． Structural Thinking Part １
Sort the Issues
３． Importance and priority
Possibly weighting
Often times, it is not possible or appropriate to solve or tackle all problems.
That is when evaluation of importance and prioritybetween the items
is necessary.
① Importance and priority of problems
Example
Factor to be Effect to revenue Emergency Effect to this year’s Frequency
considered performance
Problem A High Low Low High

Problem B Low High Low Middle

Problem C Low High High Middle

② Importance and priority of solutions

Example Factor to be Effect to revenue Emergency Effect to this year’s Frequency
considered performance
Solution A High Low Low High

Solution B Low High Low Middle

Solution C Low High High Middle

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 Ⅲ ． Sorting the Issues
４． What if we can structure the
events?
 We will start seeing the relation between various events that previously were
identified as independent.
 Capability to grasp the relation indicates that our brain is now ready to tackle
the problem.
 When our brain can sort factors, we can tell what we understand and what we
don’t.
 When our brain can sort things out, we can better explain to others what we
want to say.
 We can also see how to grasp the problem and what solutions to apply.

 By structuring, the problems that were previously considered to be too

complex could be handled more appropriately.

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 Ⅲ ． Sorting the Issues
• Exercise : Think about problems in your own workplace and weight the
importance between the problems. State the reasons of the evaluation, too.

Isn’t this to difficult

topic? Need replace?

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Ⅳ ． Identifying the Ploblem
 Ⅳ． Identifying the Problem
１． Structuring the
Logics
Structuring the logics is to send clear messages. As compared to structuring the
events, which is to simply describe the relation between events, it could describe
the cause-effect relation and the objective as well. If, for example, we are in the
process of compiling a proposal to identify a problem, it is to clarify the
conclusion and to spell out the logics that stands behind the conclusion in
appropriate sequence. It is a relation of WHY （ Why ）→ WHAT （ What has
to be done ） .

２． What if we can structure the logic?

As was the case with structuring the events, it becomes easier to communicate
with other people in logical way. Opinions evolve from wishes and
afterthoughts to opinions backed by evidence and logics. It would become
clearer why opponents’ rebuttal is not acceptable and the discussions become
more productive.
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 Ⅳ． Identifying the Problem
３． Structuring the causes

what Problem event

why Why happens?

Why happens?

Problem event Problem event

why
Why happens? Why happens?

Problem event Problem event Problem event Problem event

why
Why happens?
Problem event Problem event

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 Ⅳ ． Structural Thinking Part 2
Identify the Problem
４． MECE （ Without omission, without repetition ）
Mutually Exclusive, Collectively Exhaustive
MECE is to divide information of below rectangular into A, B, C and D so
that all can be covered without any overlap.

Ｂ Ｃ Ｄ

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 Ⅳ. Structural Thinking Part 2
Identify the Problem
Exercise : Think up an example of event which can be divided with MECE.

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 Ⅳ. Structural Thinking Part 2
Identify the Problem
５． Fishbone Chart （ Cause and Effect Chart ）
Below chart can be used in place of pyramid structure. The shape of the
chart looks like a fishbone and thus it is called as fishbone chart.

Cause event A Cause event B Cause event C

Ａ― Ｂ― Ｃ―
３ ３ ２
Ａ― Ｂ―
１ １
Ｃ―
Ａ― Ｂ―
１
２ １
The big
problem to be
solved

Ｅ―
１

Ｄ― Ｅ―２―
１ Ｄ― １
２ Ｅ―
Cause event D Cause event E ２

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 Ⅳ. Identifying the Problem
Example of Structure:
Finding and Sorting Problems in a restaurant chain
Training at restaurants

Training at the kitchen Training of restaurant attendants

Low skill of Low customer

Low skill of cook Misreading the order at
attendants service skill of
kitchen
attendants

Taste not good Inconsistent volume Too much wait Food is served to Wrong order Unaware of the Bad attitude Water not being
enough of food after order taking customers who customer of served
came later attendants

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 Ⅳ. Structural Thinking Part 2
Identify the Problem
Exercise: Structure the cause-effect relation of a problem in your workplace
that you came up as per the example in the one page previous slide.

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 Wrap-up
１． Logical Thinking is the basis to ① Sort one’s thoughts, ② See events in
objective way, ③ Communicate one’s idea to others.
２． The basic of analysis and problem solving start by thinking abut the
① cause-effect, ② correlation, ③ no relation, of events around us.
３． Structuring is to identify the relation between several events.
Structuring starts from confirming the facts.
４． In confirming the fact, keep in mind the objective of the fact finding to
avoid unnecessary analysis or research.
５． In the process of confirming the fact and clarify the cause-effect
relation, the subject maybe chosen based on personal hypothesis. This is
hypothesis and validation. This is an effective approach that can be used
when there is not enough time or resource.
６． When relations between facts and events are sorted out, assigning
importance and priority to them based on the objective would clarify the
order to proceed with problem solving.

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