Introduction

Binomial distribution is a probability distribution expressing the probability of one set of dichotomous alternatives. i.e. success or failure.
James Bernoulli (Jacob I) born in Basel, Switzerland Dec. 27, 1654-Aug. 16, 1705 He is one of the 8 mathematicians in the Bernoulli family. (from Wikipedia)

Assumption
Experiment is performed under the same conditions for a fixed number of trials In each trail there are only two possible outcomes of the experiment. i.e. Success or Failure The trails are statistically independent.

 If a coin is tossed Derivation

1 p= 2

1 q= 2

p+q=1

 If two coins are tossed simultaneously there will be four possible outcomes

TT qq

TH qp

HT pq

HH pp

q2

2pq

p2

= q2 + 2pq + p2

 Similarly if 3 coins A, B, & C are tossed

ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC

TTT
q3

TTH THT HTT THH HTH HHT HHH

q2p q2p q2p qp2 qp2 qp2 q3

= q3 + 3q2p + 3 qp2 + p3

= qn +
+
n

C q
1

n-1 1

C q
2

n-2 2

C q
3

n-3 3

C q
4

n-4 4

+ + pn

Formula
n

n-r r

P(r) = C q
where,

probability of success in a single trial q - (1-p) n number of trials r number of successes in n trails
p

Problem

10% of the managers carry laptop. If 10 managers are contacted what is the probability that
No mangers is carrying laptop, Atleast 3 mangers carry laptops, Atmost 2 managers carry laptop Use binomial distribution

Problem
P(x = 4) P(x > 1)

For bionomial distribution with parameters n = 10 and p= 2/5 find

Solution
Given
n =10 p= 2/5 = 0.4 q = 1-p = 0.6 P(x=4) = 10C4 (0.4)4 (0.6)6

P(x > 1) = 1- P (x=0) = 1 - 10C0 (0.4)0 (0.6)10

Practical Applications
Finance
An insurance company is studying the records of our damages in a large city. From the past experience it is known that 25% of all such cases are due to home accidents. In future, if another 10 fires are reported what is the probability that 4 or less are due to home accidents ?

Practical Application
Marketing
A telemarketer makes 6 phone calls per hour and is able to make a sale on 30% of these contacts. During the next 2 hours, find:
a) the probability of making exactly 4 sales b) the probability of making no sales. c) the probability of making exactly 2 sales

Practical Applications Operation

If 20% of the bolts produced by a machine are defective, determine the probability that out of 4 bolts choose at random.
A) equal to 1 B) equal to 0 At most 2 bolts will b defective

Practical Applications
Human Resource
If there are 10 persons (6 males , 4 females) applying for a job what is the probability that one male and one female member selected for a job .

Recent Trends
SPSS

Recent Trends
SPSS
Minitab

Practical Applications
Market Research Quality Control

Disadvantage
For large number of trials(n),calculating Probability through Binomial Distribution becomes difficult . In such a case Poisson Distribution is more useful

Summary

Binomial Distribution is used when the event has only two outcomes(Success or Failure) The accuracy of probability increases if more trials are conducted.(Example : For tossing of a coin, the probability of 50% is more to be achieved if more trials are conducted) P(X=r)=n C r p x q(n-r) where , p=Probability of Success q=1-p,Probability of Failure n=number of events r=0,1,2,3,.=<n