Beruflich Dokumente
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- Mamun Rashid Managing Director, Citigroup Global Markets Bangladesh Private Ltd.
Executive Summary
Global Outlook
Recovery reflected in increasingly positive economic data - Jobless claims at 10 month low, homebuilding and factory output on the rise in the United States - Growing exports, increasing manufacturing orders and retail sales in Europe - Slowing contraction and relatively low unemployment in Japan Regional outlook is positive based on strong exports, domestic demand - 7.9% growth in China in Q2 2009. Industrial production up 12% YoY as of August09 - 6.1% growth in India in Q2 2009. Industrial production up 6.8% as of July09
Bangladesh Outlook
Bangladesh economy has been mostly resilient to global turmoil - GDP growth forecast to be 5.88% in 2009, comparatively strong in the face of global contraction - Low cost exports continue to be in demand - Strong remittance inflow from Bangladeshis abroad
Europe
Mixed activity data in the European economies outweighed by stronger exports, rising sentiment indicators - Rising incoming orders signal manufacturing recovery in industrial powerhouse Germany - France is expected to extend growth into Q3, despite rising unemployment (9.1% in Q2) - Rising exports, housing, retail sales and business surveys indicate returning growth in the UK economy
Japan
Election of new government in September 2008 expected to slow recovery as new policies are implemented - Real GDP declined 8.4% (YoY) in Q1 2009, 7.2% (YoY) in Q2 2009 - Contraction is expected at a slowing rate till Q1 2010 Core CPI remained stagnant in Q1 2009, falling 1.0% in Q2 2009 Unemployment rate rose from 4.4% in Q1 2009 to 5.2% in Q2 2009
India
GDP grew 6.1% in Q2 2009, following 5.8% growth in Q1 Rainfall shortage expected to hit agricultural production Industrial production saw robust growth of 8.2% and 6.8% in June and July 2009 respectively 15% rise in food prices resulted in CPI growing 11.9% YoY Exports declined 27.7% YoY till July 2009 - Exports contracted 10 months in a row
BSE Sensex
Inflation (YoY %)
Export as a % of GDP
Remittance by Region
Rebased to 100%
108% 104% 100% 96% 92% 88% 84% 80% 76% 1/1/2009 3/12/2009 5/22/2009 8/1/2009 10/11/2009
Key Commentary
Local market has been relatively sheltered from the recent global meltdown in 2008 Market was volatile in early 2009 but has stabilized with high turnover and market capitalization FII interest to explore new front
Market Capitalization of DSE in 2009 has been around US$20 bn, up from about US$10 bn in 2007
Issuer Grameenphone
Aug 2009
Jun 2009 May 2009 Apr 2009 Jan 2009 Jan 2009 Nov 2008 Oct 2008 Oct 2008 Oct 2008 Oct 2008 Oct 2008 Sep 2008
IPO
IPO IPO IPO IPO IPO IPO Direct Listing Direct Listing IPO IPO IPO IPO
3.9
2.9 0.7 1.3 3.6 1.4 2.9 5.0 1.3 2.2 1.2 0.7 1.3
47.7
50.7 58.3 47.5 87.0 41.4 72.5 NA NA 52.8 27.6 54.6 27
13x
18x 89x 36x 24x 28.6 x 19.6 x NA NA 24.0 x 23.0 x 78.0 x 20.55 x
291%
251% NA NA 214% 616 % 430 % 13 % 10 % 185 % 320 % 830 % 150 %
355%
NA NA NA 206% 515 % 400 % (26 )% (24 )% 170 % 440 % 740 % 130 %
Sep 2008
Aug 2008 Aug 2008 July 2008 July 2008 June 2008 June 2008 Mar 2008 Average
IPO
IPO IPO IPO Direct Listing IPO IPO IPO
1.3
1.3 1.5 16.6 31.0 2.2 14.5 1.5 4.7
27
30 36 72 NA 39 58 75
20.62 x
23.22 x 25 x 4.3 x NA 17.5 x 4x 50 x
162%
237 % 779.3 % 92 % 50 % 330 % 47 % 1,450 % 340 %
38%
316 % 985 % 197 % 39 % 400 % 172 % 1,260 % 351 %
Source: Dhaka Stock Exchange. As of October 2009 Note: In case of direct listing, refer to as offer price.
NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Healthcare
Financial Institutions
2.54
1.85
Listing fundamentally sound, well-reputed companies With the improvement of corporate governance, we can attract sound corporates to come to capital markets - Quality scrips provide liquidity and motivation for educated investors to participate in capital markets - Listing of large, reputable corporates attracts foreign investments, increases liquidity - Introduction of new scrips in different sectors provides investors with broader options - Recent addition of telecom sector likely to generate interest among other large cap companies to list - Inclusion of well reputed, large cap companies will reduce ability of select investor syndicates to manipulate prices
Strong pipeline for listing of mutual funds (US$300mm in mutual funds expected to enter the market by mid 2010) - Provide retail investors with safer, indirect market access, preventing wealth & capital losses - Reduces dependency on retail investors, allowing institutions to bring commitment and stability to the market - Bring much needed market stability that only institutional investors can provide
Facilitation of Private Equity Investments Recent introduction of certain foreign private equity investors in Bangladesh - Provide stable flow of capital given mid to long term investment horizon of PE investments - High risk hurdles and selective investments direct PE funding to quality local corporates
Inclusion in Global Indices Bangladeshi companies are now included in global indices - The Dow Jones SAFE Index already includes 5 Bangladeshi banks and a power company - Inclusion of high quality scrips in the index can result in inclusion of our index in global indices such as MSCI Emerging Markets, etc
Challenges Ahead
Information Asymmetry Access to credible information is restricted - Retail investors lack dedicated investment process infrastructure - Forced to look to brokers for advice that may consist of market rumors - Syndicate of large investors manipulate the market through price inflation, pump and dump strategies Supply Side Constraints Lack of fundamentally sound scrips as companies prefer traditional bank finance to capital markets - Need to encourage listing of good scrips in the market - Reducing supply side constraints generates liquidity, reducing scope for price manipulation Lack of Professional Portfolio Management Ratio of institutional-to-retail investors remains low - Institutional investors bring stability through non speculative long term investments - Listing of more mutual funds can be a starting point to increasing institutional activity Valuation Disparity Value of scrips is subject to speculative trading rather than sound fundamentals, resulting in market volatility - Education of investors, overall development of capital markets through time can address this issue Lack of a Formal Debt Market Bangladesh does not have established secondary debt market - Markets are unable to provide short term financing solutions to corporations, i.e., commercial paper - Listing of debt instruments from quality issuers and institutional trading can increase activity - Introduction of BASEL II guidelines by Bangladesh Bank likely to encourage banks to raise capital through debt instruments in 2010 Quality Research and Analysis Development of quality equity research in the country is yet to match the growth of local capital markets - Quality research increases investor awareness, reducing speculative trading and market volatility Central Co-ordination of Regulators Top down co-ordination between Bangladesh Bank, SEC and related bodies would: - Streamline regulatory processes - Reduce time required for quality issuers and new capital markets products to reach market
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