JOHN ALLEN MARILLA BSA-UM 4th Year MGT 15

A PERT chart is a project management tool used to schedule, organize, and coordinate tasks within a project. PERT stands for Program Evaluation Review Technique, a methodology developed by the U.S. Navy in the 1950s to manage the Polaris submarine missile program. A similar methodology, the Critical Path Method (CPM) was developed for project management in the private sector at about the same time.

HISTORY
Program Evaluation and Review Technique The Navy's Special Projects Office, charged with developing the PolarisSubmarine weapon system and the Fleet Ballistic Missile capability, has developed a statistical technique for measuring and forecasting progress in research and development programs. This Program Evaluation and Review Technique (code-named PERT) is applied as a decision-making tool designed to save time in achieving endobjectives, and is of particular interest to those engaged in research and development programs for which time is a critical factor. The new technique takes recognition of three factors that influence successful achievement of research and development program objectives: time, resources, and technical performance specifications. PERT employs time as the variable that reflects planned resource-applications and performance specifications. With units of time as a common denominator, PERT quantifies knowledge about the uncertainties involved in developmental programs requiring effort at the edge of, or beyond, current knowledge of the subject - effort for which little or no previous experience exists.

Through an electronic computer, the PERT technique processes data representing the major, finite accomplishments (events) essential to achieve end-objectives; the inter-dependence of those events; and estimates of time and range of time necessary to complete each activity between two successive events. Such time expectations include estimates of "most likely time", "optimistic time", and "pessimistic time" for each activity. The technique is a management control tool that sizes up the outlook for meeting objectives on time; highlights danger signals requiring management decisions; reveals and defines both criticalness and slack in the flow plan or the network of sequential activities that must be performed to meet objectives; compares current expectations with scheduled completion dates and computes the probability for meeting scheduled dates; and simulates the effects of options for decision - before decision. The concept of PERT was developed by an operations research team staffed with representatives from the Operations Research Department ofBooz, Allen and Hamilton; the Evaluation Office of the Lockheed Missile Systems Division; and the Program Evaluation Branch, Special Projects Office, of the Department of the Navy. Willard Fazar (Head, Program Evaluation Branch, Special Projects Office, U. S. Navy), The American Statistician, April 1959

Program (Project) Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is a project management tool used to schedule, organize, and coordinate tasks within a project. It is basically a method to analyze the tasks involved in completing a given project, especially the time needed to complete each task, and to identify the minimum time needed to complete the total project.

Benefits of CPM/PERT
Useful at many stages of project management Mathematically simple Give critical path and slack time Provide project documentation Useful in monitoring costs

Questions Answered by CPM & PERT

Completion date? On Schedule? Within Budget? Critical Activities? How can the project be finished early at the least cost?

Normal Distribution of Project Time

Probability

ZW

Q = tp
darla/smbs/vit

Time
10

PERT Example
Immed. Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Activity Predec. Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.) A -4 6 8 B -1 4.5 5 C A 3 3 3 D A 4 5 6 E A 0.5 1 1.5 F B,C 3 4 5 G B,C 1 1.5 5 H E,F 5 6 7 I E,F 2 5 8 J D,H 2.5 2.75 4.5 K G,I 3 5 7
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PERT Example PERT Network

D

C B F G
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PERT Example

Activity
A B C D E F G H I J K

Expected Time
6 4 3 5 1 4 2 6 5 3 5
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Variance
4/9 4/9 0 1/9 1/36 1/9 4/9 1/9 1 1/9 4/9
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PERT Example
Activity
A B C D E F G H I J K

ES
0 0 6 6 6 9 9 13 13 19 18

EF
6 4 9 11 7 13 11 19 18 22 23

LS
0 5 6 15 12 9 16 14 13 20 18

LF
6 9 9 20 13 13 18 20 18 23 23

Slack
0 *critical 5 0* 9 6 0* 7 1 0* 1 0*

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PERT Example Vpath = VA + VC + VF + VI + VK = 4/9 + 0 + 1/9 + 1 + 4/9 = 2 Wpath = 1.414 z = (24 - 23)/W!(24-23)/1.414 = .71 From the Standard Normal Distribution table: P(z < .71) = .5 + .2612 = .7612
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
Wikepidea.com Options for Educators: a Monograph for Decision Makers on Alternative Participatory Strategies, pp. 142-146. New York: PACT/CDS, Inc., 1992 Orr, Alan D. Advanced project management : a complete guide to the processes, models and techniques. London : Kogan Page, 2004. Phillips, "Fifteen Key Features of Computer Programs for CPM and PERT," Journal of Industrial Engineering, January-February 1964

THE END