Probability Distribution

1/9/2012

A Probability distribution is the same as Frequency Distribution A probability indicates how probable each outcome is. It can also be presented in graphical form e.g histogram We can use summary measures like mean & std. Dev. To Summarize probability distributions We need to identify the set of outcomes to construct a probability distribution.

1/9/2012

Probability Distribution
No of women(x) 0 1 2 3 P(x) 0.125 0.375 0.375 0.125

1/9/2012

To help protect your privacy, PowerPoint prevented this external picture from being automatically downloaded. To download and display this picture, click Options in the Message Bar, and then click Enable external content.

Random Variable
The outcome of an experiment need not be a number, for example, the outcome when a coin is tossed can be 'heads' or 'tails'. However, we often want to represent outcomes as numbers. A random variable is a function that associates a unique numerical value with every outcome of an experiment. The value of the random variable will vary from trial to trial as the experiment is repeated. There are two types of random variable - discrete and continuous. A random variable has either an associated probability distribution (discrete random variable) or probability density function (continuous random variable).

1/9/2012

Expected Value
The expected value (or population mean) of a random variable indicates its average or central value. It is a useful summary value (a number) of the variable's distribution. Stating the expected value gives a general impression of the behaviour of some random variable without giving full details of its probability distribution (if it is discrete) or its probability density function (if it is continuous). Two random variables with the same expected value can have very different distributions. There are other useful descriptive measures which affect the shape of the distribution, for example variance. The expected value of a random variable X is symbolised by E(X) or . If X is a discrete random variable with possible values x1, x2, x3, ..., xn, and p(xi) denotes P(X = xi), then the expected value of X is defined by:

1/9/2012

Discrete Random Variable

A discrete random variable is one which may take on only a countable number of distinct values such as 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, ... Discrete random variables are usually (but not necessarily) counts. If a random variable can take only a finite number of distinct values, then it must be discrete. Examples of discrete random variables include the number of children in a family, the Friday night attendance at a cinema, the number of patients in a doctor's surgery, the number of defective light bulbs in a box of ten.
1/9/2012

Continuous Random Variable

A continuous random variable is one which takes an infinite number of possible values. Continuous random variables are usually measurements. Examples include height, weight, the amount of sugar in an orange, the time required to run a mile.

Cumulative Distribution Function

All random variables (discrete and continuous) have a cumulative distribution function. It is a function giving the probability that the random variable X is less than or equal to x, for every value x. Formally, the cumulative distribution function F(x) is defined to be: for

Example Discrete case : Suppose a random variable X has the following probability distribution p(x ) xi p(xi) 0 1 2 3 4 5
Continued..

1/32 5/32 10/32 10/32 5/32 1/32

1/9/2012

The cumulative distribution function F(x) is then: xi F(xi) 0 1/32 1 6/32 2 16/32 3 26/32 4 31/32 5 32/32

F(x) does not change at intermediate values. For example:

F(1.3) = F(1) = 6/32 F(2.86) = F(2) = 16/32

1/9/2012

Binomial Distribution
Binomial distributions model (some) discrete random variables. Typically, a binomial random variable is the number of successes in a series of trials, for example, the number of 'heads' occurring when a coin is tossed 50 times. A discrete random variable X is said to follow a Binomial distribution with parameters n and p, written X ~ Bi(n,p) or X ~ B(n,p), if it has probability distribution where x = 0, 1, 2, ......., n n = 1, 2, 3, ....... p = success probability; 0 < p < 1

1/9/2012

The trials must meet the following requirements: a. The total number of trials is fixed in advance; b. There are just two outcomes of each trial; success and failure; c. The outcomes of all the trials are statistically independent; d. All the trials have the same probability of success. The Binomial distribution has expected value E(X) = np and varianceV(X) = np(1-p). Example

1/9/2012

Poisson Distribution Poisson distributions model (some) discrete random variables Typically, a Poisson random variable is a count of the number of events that occur in a certain time interval or spatial area. For example, the number of cars passing a fixed point in a 5 minute interval, or the number of calls received by a switchboard during a given period of time. A discrete random variable X is said to follow a Poisson distribution with parameter m, written X ~ Po(m), if it has probability distribution where x = 0, 1, 2, ..., n m > 0.

1/9/2012

The following requirements must be met: a. The length of the observation period is fixed in advance; b. The events occur at a constant average rate; c. The number of events occurring in disjoint intervals are statistically independent The Poisson distribution has expected value E(X) = m and variance V(X) = m; i.e. E(X) = V(X) = m.

1/9/2012

The Poisson distribution can sometimes be used to approximate the Binomial distribution with parameters n and p. When the number of observations n is large, and the success probability p is small, the Bi(n,p) distribution approaches the Poisson distribution with the parameter given by m = np. This is useful since the computations involved in calculating binomial probabilities are greatly reduced Formula

P(x) = (np)x e-np -----------------x!

1/9/2012

Normal Distribution
Normal distributions model (some) continuous random variable strictly, a Normal random variable should be capable of assuming any value on the real line, though this requirement is often waived in practice. For example, height at a given age for a given gender in a given racial group is adequately described by a Normal random variable even though heights must be positive.

1/9/2012

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION History

The normal curve was developed mathematically in 1733 by DeMoivre as an approximation to the binomial distribution. His paper was not discovered until 1924 by Karl Pearson. Laplace used the normal curve in 1783 to describe the distribution of errors. Subsequently, Gauss used the normal curve to analyze astronomical data in 1809. The normal curve is often called the Gaussian distribution. The term bell-shaped curve is often used in everyday usage.

1/9/2012

Characterstics of Normal Distribution 1.It is unimodal that is it has a single peak. 2.The mean lies at the centre of the normal curve. 3.It is symmetrical thus the median &the mode also lie at the centre of the curve. 4.The two tails extend indefinitely without touching the horizontal axis.It is asymptotic

1/9/2012

The normal distribution has about 68% of the observations lying within one standard deviation of the mean, 95% within two standard deviations and 99.7% within 3 standard deviations. This allows for a simple description of where most values are to be found. The standard normal distribution has a mean of 0 and a variance of 1 and is shown below.

1/9/2012

1/9/2012

Standard normal distribution-mean =o,std.dev =1

1/9/2012

Many distributions arising in practice can be approximated by a Normal distribution. Other random variables may be transformed to normality. The simplest case of the normal distribution, known as the Standard Normal Distribution, has expected value zero and variance one. This is written as N(0,1). Examples

1/9/2012

Example 1.According to HDFC bank the time taken by its customer at the ATM is Normally distributed with a mean of18 sec. &a std.dev of3 sec. What is the probability that a randomly selected customer takes less than13 seconds.? 2.less than 12sec. 3.less than15 sec. 4.less than18 sec. 5.less than 21sec. x 12. 13. 18. 21.
1/9/2012

P(x) 0.0228 0.1587 0.5000 0.8413

The Z score x -Q Z= ------W Normally distributed random variables may take many different Units of measure like inches, rupees etc so we standardise as Z scores.

1/9/2012

The Normal distribution as an approximation of the Binomial dist .Example1.Toss a coin 10 times and if we want to know the probability of getting a head 5/6/7/8 times? mean =np 10x0.5 = 1 compute the value for 5 + &- a as a continuity correction factor and are used for accuracy At x =4.5 , x - Q 4.5 - 5 z = ----------- = ---------- =- 0.32 W 1.58 At x =8.5, z = 2.21
1/9/2012

std dev =sq root of npq.=1.58

Example - Distribution of blood pressure Distribution of blood pressure can be approximated as a normal distribution with mean 85 mm. and standard deviation 20 mm. A histogram of 1,000 observations and the normal curve is shown below.

1/9/2012

THANK YOU

1/9/2012