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St. Andrews
St. Andrews University receives 900 applications annually from prospective students. The application forms contain a variety of information including the individuals scholastic aptitude test (SAT) score and whether or not the individual desires oncampus housing.
St. Andrews
To get numerical/statistical information from the population (for example, the mean scores of all the applicants)
Census of all 900 applicants Survey of a portion of the applicants (ex. 30)
St. Andrews
Taking a Census of the 900 Applicants
SAT Scores
Population Mean
x Q!
900
! 990
W!
( x i Q )2 900
! 80
St. Andrews
Taking a survey of 30 people Random No. Number 1 744 2 436 3 865 4 790 5 835 . . 30 685 Applicant SAT Score Connie Reyman 1025 William Fox 950 Fabian Avante 1090 Eric Paxton 1120 Winona Wheeler 1015 . . Kevin Cossack 965 On-Campus Yes Yes No Yes No . No
St. Andrews
Population Sample
x Q!
W!
900
i
! 990
2
x x!
s! 29
29,910 ! ! 997 30 30
i
(x
Q)
900
! 80
( xi x )2
163,996 ! ! 75.2 29
p ! 20 30 ! .68
Sampling Error
The absolute value of the difference between an unbiased point estimate and the population parameter it estimates is called the sampling error. For the case of a sample mean estimating a population mean: Sampling Error = | x Q|
St. Andrews
Population Sample
x Q!
W!
900
i
! 990
2
x x!
s! 29
29,910 ! ! 997 30 30
i
(x
Q)
900
! 80
( xi x )2
163,996 ! ! 75.2 29
p ! 20 30 ! .68
Assume that we have a population of 6 stocks (shown in the table) Computing for the population parameters, we get:
N=6 = 35% W = 17.078%
Observations
Although the population of N = 6 stock returns has a uniform distribution, the histogram of n = 15 sample mean returns:
1. Seem to be centered over the sample mean return of 35%, and 2. Appears to be bell-shaped and less spread out than the histogram of individual returns
Statistics
Mean of all sample means: Q x = Q = -3.5% Standard deviation of all possible means:
Wx !
W n
26 5
! 11.63%
W W ! n
2 x
That is, the variance of the sampling distribution of x is directly proportional to the variance of the population, and inversely proportional to the sample size
Wx !
That is, the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of x is o directly proportional to the standard deviation of the population, and o inversely proportional to the square root of the sample size
Notes
2 W x and W x hold if the sampled The formulas for population is infinite The formulas hold approximately if the sampled population is finite but if N is much larger (at least 20 times larger) than the n (N/n 20) x is the point estimate of Q, and the larger the sample
W N n Wx ! ( ) n N 1
Yes, the sampling distribution is approximately normal if the sample is large enough, even if the population is non-normal
x
as n p large
Sampling Distribution of Sample Mean
x
Population Distribution
(Q, W)
(right-skewed)
! Q ,W x ! W
(nearly normal)
Unbiased Estimates
A sample statistic is an unbiased point estimate of a population parameter if the mean of all possible values of the sample statistic equals the population parameter x is an unbiased estimate of Q because Qx=Q
In general, the sample mean is always an unbiased estimate of Q The sample median is often an unbiased estimate of Qbut not always
Example
Suppose that we will randomly select a sample of 64 measurements from a population having a mean equal to 20 and a standard deviation equal to 4.
Describe the shape of the sampling distribution of the sample mean. Find the mean and the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample mean. Calculate the probability that the sample mean is greater than 21. Calculate the probability that the sample mean is less than 19.385.
65 %
20%
10%
5%
b)
Calculate the mean and standard deviation of the number of flaws per floppy disk. Suppose that we randomly select a sample of 100 floppy disks. Compute the mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample mean. Assume a random sample of 100 disks is drawn from each shipment from the supplier with the shipment being rejected if the average number of flaws per disk for the 100 sample disks is greater than 0.75. Suppose the mean number of flaws per disk for this weeks entire shipment is actually 0.55, what is the probability that the shipment will be rejected and sent back to the supplier?
c)
p p 1 n
p where p is the population proportion and is a sampled proportion, and n could be considered large if both np and n(1 p) are at least 5
Wp !
p(1 p) N n n N 1
the proportion. n could be considered large if both np and n(1 p) are at least 5
Example
Suppose that we will randomly select a sample of n = 100 units from a population and that we will compute the sample p proportion of these units that fall into a category of interest. If the true population proportion p equals 90%:
Describe the shape of the sampling distribution of p Find the mean and the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of p
Example
Calculate the following probabilities about p the sample proportion . In each case sketch the sampling distribution and the probability. p P( 0.96) p P(0.855 0.945) P( 0.915) p