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Contents
- Introduction
- 1D-Hydrodynamic modeling with MIKE 11 - Development of an improved method for loss of life (LOL) estimation - Loss of life (LOL) estimation for different scenarios - Conclusions and Suggestions
Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Introduction
- Role of climate change in disaster management - Possible extreme changes in climate as guidelines
for the development of new concepts for disaster mitigation
Drastic weather change Heavy rainfall Catastrophic flooding downstream of the dam Risk to people and property
Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Introduction contd
Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Introduction contd
- Jhelum river valley downstream of Mangla dam in Pakistan - One of largest earth and rock-fill dams in world - Main dam height ~125 m high above riverbed
Introduction contd
Gross storage (original) Net storage (original) Catchment area of reservoir (original) Water surface area of reservoir (original)
(at maximum conservation level)
7.25 E+9 m3 6.59 E+9 m3 33,360 km2 253 km2 1,000 MW 2,561 m 28,583 m3/s 6,452 m3/s
Power generation Crest length of main dam Design capacity of main spillway Design capacity of emergency spillway
Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Max. Q (m3/s)
40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000
Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Rasul Barrage
40000 m3/s (with bridges) 50000 m3/s (with bridges) MDF (61977 m3/s: with bridges) 40000 m3/s (without bridges)
240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 0 30000 60000 90000 120000 150000 180000 210000 240000 270000 300000
Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Max. Q (m /s)
200000 180000
160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 0 30000 60000 90000 120000 150000 180000 210000 240000 270000 300000
Case3 (without bridges) Case2 (without bridges) Case1 (without bridges)
Downstream chainage (m) Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 0 30000
Rasul Barrage
Case1 (with bridges) Case2 (with bridges) Case3 (with bridges) Case1 (without bridges) Case2 (without bridges) Case3 (without bridges)
60000
90000
120000
150000
180000
210000
240000
270000
300000
Downstream chainage (m) Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Fage = Age risk factor A (<10yrs+ (>=65yrs)),B (10-15)yrs and C (15-64)yrs Fage = 1.25 *A% +1.1* B%+ 0.8* C% Fmt = Material risk factor Fmt = 1 * X % + 1.5 * Y % (general form) Where, X= % of other type of houses, Y= % very low strength houses
Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
(general form)
Fh = Health risk factor; 3% disabled people Fh = 1 *H % + 1.25*D % (general form) Where, H= % of PAR with avg. health, D= % of disabled PAR
Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Warning Flood Severity understanding No No Some (15-60min) Vague/unclear Adequate (>60min) Precise/clear Fev = Ease of evacuation factor Warning Ease of evacuation No No Some (15-60min) Some Adequate(>60min) Good
Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
0 67 54 18 18 26 9 47 31 9 90 46 4 13 50 0 38 55 2 94 63 7 65 68 4 30 73 4 70 78 3 37 83 5 45 90 4 2 10 05 27 11 11 01 11 38 58 12 56 21 13 84 52 14 57 24 15 42 25 16 75 40 17 39 86 18 97 91 19 27 63 20 88 69 21 75 69 22 66 81 23 96 79 24 66 67 25 80 65 26 48 63 28 70 09 16
Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
1- Warning Initiation 30min after Failure 2- Warning Initiation 15min after Failure 3- Warning Initiation at Failure 4- Warning Initiation 1hr before Failure 5- Warning Initiation 2hrs before Failure
Selected Scenarios
4
LOL (MDF 61977 m3/s: with bridges) LOL (50000 m3/s: without bridges)
Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
3.5
2.5
1.5
250000
300000
350000
Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
70000
Cumulative LOL
60000
Failure Case1
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 0 25000 50000 75000 100000 125000 150000 175000 200000 225000 250000 275000 300000
Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
dam failure
- More research is required to estimate - ease of evacuation - risks posed by age groups - very low strength houses and more storey houses - Realistic estimation of possible LOL due to natural hazards like floods helps in long-term disaster mitigation planning
Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig
Risk and Planet Earth Conference, Panel 2 for Junior Scientists, 4th March 2009, Leipzig