Technology

Diffusion & Adoption

SG-2, LLC
Preliminary
Technology Diffusion
% of volume Technology Diffusion
1.20000

Saturation
1.00000

0.80000

Accelerating diffusion
0.60000
"r" value - rate)

"50%" mark
0.40000

Development lag
0.20000

0.00000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Years

Saturation level: A given technology can impact on a certain percentage of disease prevalence or DRG utilization (the saturation
can be set to between “0” and “1”)
“Take-off” point: The “take-off” point is defined as the time (year) in which 50% of relevant healthcare facilities are using the
technology.
Development lag: Technology development and regulatory approval (as appropriate) takes time. For technologies just recently
approved, this development lag is “0”
Acceleration rate or “r”: Related to how rapidly the technology diffuses (reaches saturation) once it is available.
Pharmaceuticals (with low cost and low side-effects) typically have a rapid (or large) acceleration rate, while surgical
devices (high expense and extensive training involved) would have a slow (small) acceleration rate.
Noninvasive Angiography example
 Utilization forecast of non-invasive (and by corollary, invasive) coronary angiography (CTA and/or MRA based).
 In the future, the vast majority of noninvasive angiographies will be screening angiographies.
 Screening noninvasive angiographies will outnumber diagnostic noninvasive angiographies by a factor of 10 and both will
plateau by around 2009.
 Invasive angiographies (even despite an increase in angioplasty volumes) will decrease yet not be completely replaced by
noninvasive angiography.

Projected coronary angiography volumes

U.S. Population, 2001 - 2010
Total Invasive Angiography
Total Noninvasive Angiography (Diagnostic & Screening)
Noninvasive (diagnostic) angiography
Noninvasive (screening) angiography

14,000,000

12,000,000

10,000,000
Volume

8,000,000

6,000,000

4,000,000

2,000,000

0
01

04

06

09
02

03

05

07

08

10
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Year
Technology Adoption
Technology Adoption

1.20000

1.00000

0.80000 Utilization at a
rapidly adopting
% of volume

institution #1
0.60000
Utilization at a
slowly adopting
institution #2
0.40000
Current average ∆U1: Difference between utilization at
national utilization rate institution #1 relative to
local volume adjusted national rate
0.20000

∆U2:

0.00000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Current time Years

Adoption rating
% Adoption Rating
1.20000

Conservative
1.00000

0.80000
Accelerators

0.60000

"50%" mark
0.40000 Early Accelerators

0.20000
Initiators
0.00000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Initiators: Utilize technology typically in the first 10% of overall utilization

Early Accelerators: Are in the 10% to 50% group of first utilizers.

Accelerators: Are in the 50% to 90% group of utilizers.

Conservative: Are in the last 10% of utilizers