St.

Xavier's College Autonomous Mumbai

Foundation Course 2nd CIA 20112011-12 F.Y.BcomF.Y.Bcom-B

Global Warming Effects

Macloyd Francis Vignesh Poojary Vijay Poojary Nitesh Potle Shivaji Powar 225 272 273 274 275

EFFECTS DUE TO GLOBAL WARMING

Extreme Weather

Rising Sea Levels

Increase in Disease

Economy

Extreme Weather

y It is an extended interval of abnormally hot and usually

humid weather
y It lasts from a few days to over a week. y It will become more frequent and more intense. y European heat wave of 2003 in France nearly 20,000

people died
y South Australian heat wave of 2006

-Natural Resources Defense Council

y El Nio ,Indonesia, Malaysia

and elsewhere in the western Pacific. y Desertification

y biodiversity loss

y 1928-1930, northwest China

y resulted in over 3 million

deaths.
y 1936, Sichuan Province, China
y worst drought in the modern

history y 34 million farmers were relocated and 25 million people starved

y Colorado, Arizona, and

Oregon
y In 2002, they experienced

the second worst wildfire season in the last 50 years.

y More than 7 million acres

burned.

y Flooding will occur due

to rising sea levels from increased precipitation and melting glaciers.

y Eroded sea shores as

consequence

RISE IN SEA

y In an Ice-Jam, Alaska Waters Rise 15 Feet in 24

Hours

y People at risk; 2229 million by the 2020s, 50

80 million by 2050s, and 88241 million by the 2080s (Nicholls et al., 1999).
y 70-90% located in Africa, Mediterranean, Asia,

And small Island States

y Est. 30 Billion in land loss, USA, Zeidler (1997)

EFFECT S ON

y Elevated temperatures during

summer months are associated with excess morbidity and mortality. Approximately 6 Lakh deaths occur world-wide .
y The most common cause of

death and most acute illness directly attributable to heat is heat stroke. Other causes of death due to heat waves include heart disease, diabetes, stroke, respiratory

y Xavier Rodo, a physical scientist of the University of Barcelona,

and his colleagues have described a relationship between cholera and the El Nino/ Southern Oscillation patterns in Bangladesh from 1983 to 2001. The team found that ENSO, which causes warmer equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures, was responsible for more than 70% of cholera mortality and morbidity (Weinhold 2004).

y Laboratory

research found that replication rates in malaria, Dengue fever and other mosquito borne diseases rose directly with increases in temperature.

y The results of an integrated

03 health impacts assessment suggested that changes in climate alone, resulting from growth in greenhouse gas emissions could case 4.5% increase in the number of summer 03 related deaths across the New York Metropolitan region by the 2050s (Knowlton et al. 2004)

EFFECTS ON ECONOM Y

2010

2100

y Industry and population are likely to follow

food production, water resources, and pleasant weather (moderate temperatures and low risks of natural disasters)
y Assuming a rise in temperature and shift in

climate
y Warm, low-altitude real estate value would drop. y Cold, high-altitude real estate value would rise. y Coastal property could disappear altogether.

y A favoring of cold, high-altitude land might

increase the gap between rich and poor

Climate change may initially have small positive effects for a few developed countries, but is likely to be very damaging for the much higher temperature increases expected by mid- to latecentury under BAU conditions.
y In higher-latitude regions, 2-3C means higher

crop yields, lower energy requirements y In lower-latitude regions, higher temperatures means lower crop yields and water availability
y Example: Southern Europe y 2C increase in temp = 20% decline in

agriculture yields and water y Heat waves like 2003 ($15 billion crop losses) will be common by 2050.

y U.S. in 2003: $65 billion y U.S. in 2004: $145 billion y Economic damage 1985-1999 y The worlds wealthiest countries y 57.3% of economic losses y 2.5% of GDP y The worlds poorest countries y 24.4% of economic losses y 13.4% of GDP y These numbers will of course increase along

with an increase in natural disasters y IPCCs Fourth Assessment Report: y More than 66% certainty of increase in droughts, tropical cyclones, and extreme high tides.

Thank you