Intelligent Support Systems

Prof. Rushen Chahal

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Agenda
Artificial Intelligence Expert Systems (ES) Differences between ES and DSS ES Examples

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Artificial Intelligence
Effort to develop computer-based systems that behave like humans:
Learn languages Accomplish physical tasks Use a perceptual apparatus Emulate human thinking

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AI Branches
Natural language Robotics Vision systems Expert systems Intelligent machines Neural network

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Agenda
Artificial Intelligence Expert Systems (ES) Differences between ES and DSS ES Examples

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ES
Feigenbaum intelligent computer program using knowledge / inference procedures to solve problems difficult enough to require significant human expertise; a model of the expertise of the best practitioners
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Components of an Expert System

Knowledge acquisition facility Knowledge base (fact and rule) Inference engine User interface Explanation facility Recommended action User
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Reasons For Using ES

Consistent Never gets bored or overwhelmed Replaces absent, scarce experts Quick response time Cheaper than experts Integration of multi-expert opinions Eliminate routine or unsatisfactory jobs for people
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ES Limitations
High development cost Limited to relatively simple problems
limited domain operational mgmt level

Can be difficult to use Can be difficult to maintain

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When to Use ES
High potential payoff Reduced risk Need to replace experts Need more consistency than humans Expertise needed at various locations at same time Hostile environment dangerous to human health
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Agenda
Artificial Intelligence Expert Systems (ES) Differences between ES and DSS ES Examples

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ES Versus DSS
Problem Structure:
ES: structured problems
clear consistent unambiguous limited scope

DSS: semi-structured problems

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ES Versus DSS
Quantification:
DSS: quantitative ES: non-mathematical reasoning
IF A BUT NOT B, THEN Z

Purpose:
DSS: aid manager ES: replace manager

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Agenda
Artificial Intelligence Expert Systems (ES) Differences between ES and DSS ES Examples

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Deep Blue
World chess champion Gary Kasparov IBM chess computer Deep Blue 1997 match Deep Blues human programmers included chess master
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Deep Blue
Included database that plays endgame flawlessly
5 or fewer pieces on each side

Can Deep Blue calculate possibilities of earlier play? Kasparov lost - became frustrated and played poorly
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MYACIN
Diagnose patient symptoms (triage)
Free doctors for high-level tasks

Panel of doctors
Diagnose sets of symptoms Determine causes 62% accuracy

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MYACIN
Built ES with rules based on panel consensus 68% accuracy

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Stock Market ES
Reported by Chandler, 1988 Expert in stock market analysis
15 years experience Published newsletter

Asked him to identify data used to make recommendations

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Stock Market ES
50 data elements found Reduced to 30
Redundancy Not really used Undependable

Predicted for 6 months of data whether stock value would increase, decrease, or stay the same
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Stock Market ES
Rule-based ES built Discovered that only 15 data elements needed Refined the ES model Results were better than expert

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Points to Remember
Artificial Intelligence Expert Systems (ES) Differences between ES and DSS ES Examples

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Discussion Questions
What do you think about the following statement?
Expert systems are dangerous. People are likely to be dependent on them rather than think for themselves.

What kind of ES does your organization have? What kind of ES will benefit your organization?

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