An Analysis of Crop Diversification

Dr. Rajiv Mehta Member Secretary, CACP Ministry of Agriculture Government of India

National Conference on Agriculture for Kharif Campaign-2005 22nd 23rd March 2005 New Delhi

Crop Diversification
An effective strategy for achieving
food & nutrition security, income growth, poverty alleviation, employment generation, judicious use of land and water resources, sustainable agricultural development, and environmental improvement, (FAO 2001; Singh 2001).
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Catalysts for crop diversification

Demand Supply response
Price Market mechanism Competitiveness

Sustainability Response for efficient resource use Policy Stimulants

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Crop Diversification
Declining net area sown Slow vertical expansion
Gross Cropped Area (million hectares)

Macro-perspective

Land - an inelastic factor of production.

141 million hectares
1990-01 185 1999-2000 190

Depleting Water Availability Stress on Soil quality Skewed Cropping Pattern

Area under foodgrains Area under rice and wheat -

66 percent.
37per cent

Area under oilseeds Area under Cotton & Sugarcane Share of other crops -

14 per cent. 7 percent 13 per cent.

Analysis of Crop Diversification

Macro-perspective
Annual Compound Growth Rate of Crop Area (% per annum)
Crops
Rice Wheat Cor. Cer. Maize Pulses Oilseeds Cotton S.cane

.contd
Annual Growth Rate of Area

5 4 3 % p er a n n u m 2 1 0

84-85 to 94-95 94-95 to 03-04

0.53 0.91 -2.14 0.49 -0.21 4.03 0.74 2.71 -0.05 0.2 -1.09 1.67 -0.59 -1.9 -0.97 0.95

R ic

se

ed

Ce

Wh

Ma

tt o Co

Pu l

-2 -3

Co

84-85 to 94-95

94-95 to 03-04

Oi

ls e

S. c

r.

an

-1

r.

iz e

ea

Analysis of Crop Diversification

State -perspective
Quantitative Analysis covers 9 States Rice Wheat rotation states Punjab Haryana Uttar Pradesh Rice dominant states West Bengal Bihar Other states Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Maharashtra Rajasthan

Crop Abbreviations PDY-k PDY-r WHT CCL-k CCL-r PLS-k PLS-r OLS-k OLS-r CTN SCN OTH Paddy Kharif Paddy Rabi Wheat Coarse Cereals-Kharif Coarse Cereals-Rabi Pulses-Kharif Pulses-Rabi Oilseeds-Kharif Oilseeds-Rabi Cotton Sugarcane Others
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All the crops except in Others are covered in MSP operation

Existing Cropping Pattern

States
Punjab Haryana

Crop Area % to Gross Crop Area (TE 2000-01) More than 30% 10% to 30 %
PDY - k, WHT WHT OTH PDY - k, CCL-k PDY -k WHT,CCL-k, OLS-r, OTH CCL-k, CCL-r, PLS-k, CTN, OTH PDY-k, OLS-k, OTH CCL-k, CCL-r, PLS-k, OTH, OLS-k PDY-k PDY-k WHT PDY-r, OTH

2 % to 10%
CTN PLS-r, OLS-r, CTN, SCN, OTH

Uttar Pradesh WHT Rajasthan Maharashtra Andhra Karnataka Bihar West Bengal

CCL-k, PLS-k, PLS-r, OLS-r, SCN, OTH PLS-k, PLS-r, OLS-k, CTN PDY, WHT, PLS-r, OLS, OLS-k, CCN PDY-r, CCL-k, CCL-r, PLS-k, PLS-r, OLS-r, CTN PDY-k, PDY-r, WHT, PLS-r, CTN, SCN CCL-k, CCL-r, PLS-k, PLS-r, OTH WHT, PLS-r, OLS-k, OLS-r, JUTE
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Change in Cropping Pattern percentage

(From TE 1990-91 to TE 2000-01)

States Punjab Haryana Uttar Pradesh Rajasthan Maharashtra Andhra Karnataka Bihar West Bengal

Shift To
More than 4%
PDY PDY, WHT OTH WHT, OLS-r OTH OTH CTN CTN

Shift From
2% to 4%
OTH PLS-r

More than 4%

2% to 4%
WHT, CTN CCL-k, OTH CCL-k

CCL-k CCL-k CCL-k CCL-r, OLS-r OLS-k CCL-k

WHT, CCL-r, OTH PDY-r, OTH PDY-k

CCL-k, PLS-r

Index of Crop Diversification

Change in Diversification (1990-91 to 2000-01). 0.850 D e sific tio In e iv r a n dx

Index in 1990-91 & 2000-01

0.800 0.750 0.700 0.650 0.600 0.550 0.500

H a ry a n a

P ra d e s h

M a h a ra s h A tr n a d h ra P ra d e s h

R a ja s th a n

K a rn a ta k a

P u n ja b

B ih a r B ih a r

U tt a r

Div. Inde x 90-91

Div. Inde x 2000-01

Change in Diversification (1990-91 to 2000-01).

Change in Diversification Index

0.050 0.040 0.030 0.020 0.010 0.000

H a ry a n a

M a h a ra s h tr A a n d h ra P ra d e s h

P ra d e s h

R a ja s th a n

K a rn a ta k a

P u n ja b

-0.020

-0.030 -0.040

U tt a r

W e s t

B e n g a l

-0.010

W e s t

B e n g a l

Change in Diver.

Value of Agricultural Output (Current Price )

39000 34000 29000 24000 19000 14000 9000 4000

Pu nj ab

Ha ry an a

de sh

Ka rn at ak a

Bi ha r
ar

M ah ar as h

Pr ad e

Pr a

Ut ta r

(Current Prices)

An dh ra

1990-91

2000-01

&
Percent per annum

Annual Growth in Value of Output per Hectare (1993-94 prices) 1990-91 to 2000-01 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5

Annual % Growth In Value of Output /HA ( In Constant Prices)

K ar na ta ka

Pu nj ab

Pr ad es h

W es t
B ih W es t B en ga l

H ar ya n

Pr ad

M ah ar as

ht ra

es h

U tt ar

A nd hr a

Be ng al

Value of Agricultural Output Per Hectare

Rs. per hectare

tra

sh

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Crop Diversification Road ahead

Macro Issues
Food Security
Foodgrain Requirement (Million. Tonns) 2006-07 230 2009-10 245

Other Demand Issues

Oilseeds Pulses Demand outpacing domestic supply Demand (2006-7) Oilseeds 40 Mn. Tns 40% Pulses 18 Mn. Tns 15%

Existing Import substitution -

Rising Demand for Horticulture, Livestock and poultry

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Crop Diversification Road ahead

State /Region Specific Issues
Sustainability
Land, Water, Soil

Comparative Advantage
Existing yield gaps. Stagnant Productivity Alternative Cropping Choices

Demarcation - Regions Districts

Supply Issues
Demand Supply Gap Productivity
Regional Imbalance Potential in Eastern and North eastern States

Research Extension Linkages Export Opportunity

Market and Institutional issues

Backward Forward linkages Infrastructure Value Addition Revisiting land reforms Market Reforms
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Quality and Premium variety potential e.g. Wheat Increasing demand / supply of Horticulture- Livestock products

Thanks
E-mail: rajivmehta2003@rediffmail.com

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