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3/1/2012
The project network is a tool used for planning, scheduling, and monitoring project progress. For proper planning, scheduling and control of the activities of a project, network techniques have been quite useful. It is the framework for the project information system that will be used by the project managers to make decisions concerning project time, cost and performance
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Network analysis is concerned with minimizing some measure of performance of the system such as the total completion time for the project, overall cost and so. By preparing a network of the system, a decision maker can identify (a) The physical relationship of the system, and (b) The inter-relationships of the system components. Network analysis is specially suited to project which are not routine or repetitive and which will be conducted only one or a few times.
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Objectives
Network analysis can be used to serve the following objectives: 1.Minimization of total time 2.Minimization of total cost 3.Minimization of time for a given cost 4.Minimization of cost for a given total time 5.Minimization of idle resources 6.Minimization of production delays, interruptions and conflicts
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Ways of network
For completing any project generally two types of method are followed for network, such as:
1. CPM 2. PERT
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DuPont developed a Critical Path Method (CPM) designed to address the challenge of shutting down chemical plants for maintenance and then restarting the plants once the maintenance had been completed. Complex project, like the above example, require a series of activities, some of which must be performed sequentially and others that can be performed in parallel with other activities. This collection of series and parallel tasks can be modeled as a network. CPM models the activities and events of a project as a network. Activities are shown as nodes on the network and events that signify the beginning or ending of activities are shown as arcs or lines between the nodes. The Figure shows an example of a CPM network diagram:
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Steps in CPM Project Planning 1. Specify the individual activities. 2. Determine the sequence of those activities. 3. Draw a network diagram.
1. Specify the individual activities All the activities in the project are listed. This list can be used as the basis for adding sequence and duration information in later steps. 2. Determine the sequence of the activities Some activities are dependent on the completion of other activities. A list of the immediate predecessors of each activity is useful for constructing the CPM network diagram. 3. Draw the Network Diagram Once the activities and their sequences have been defined, the CPM diagram can be drawn. CPM originally was developed as an activity on node network. 4. Estimate activity completion time The time required to complete each activity can be estimated using past experience. CPM does not take into account 3/1/2012 10 variation in the completion time.
5. Identify the Critical Path The critical path is the longest-duration path through the network. The significance of the critical path is that the activities that lie on it cannot be delayed without delaying the project. Because of its impact on the entire project, critical path analysis is an important aspect of project planning. The critical path can be identified by determining the following four parameters for each activity: ES - earliest start time: the earliest time at which the activity can start given that its precedent activities must be completed first. EF - earliest finish time, equal to the earliest start time for the activity plus the time required completing the activity. LF - latest finish time: the latest time at which the activity can be completed without delaying the project. LS - Latest start time, equal to the latest finish time minus the time required to complete the activity.
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The slack time for an activity is the time between its earliest and latest start time, or between its earliest and latest finish time. Slack is the amount of time that an activity can be delayed past its earliest start or earliest finish without delaying the project. The critical path is the path through the project network in which none of the activities have slack, that is, the path for which ES=LS and EF=LF for all activities in the path. A delay in the critical path delays the project. Similarly, to accelerate the project it is necessary to reduce the total time required for the activities in the critical path.
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6. Update CPM diagram As the project progresses, the actual task completion times will be known and the network diagram can be updated to include this information. A new critical path may emerge, and structural changes may be made in the network if project requirements change.
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CPM Benefits Provides a graphical view of the project. Predicts the time required to complete the project. Shows which activities are critical to maintaining the schedule and which are not. CPM Limitations While CPM is easy to understand and use, it does not consider the time variations that can have a great impact on the completion time of a complex project. CPM was developed for complex but fairly routine projects with minimum uncertainty in the project completion times. For less routine projects there is more uncertainty in the completion times, and this uncertainty limits its usefulness.
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PERT
The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is a network model that allows for randomness in activity completion times. PERT was developed in the late 1950's for the U.S. Navy's Polaris Fleet Ballistic Missile project having thousands of contractors. It has the potential to reduce both the time and cost required to complete a project. It was designed to handle risk and uncertainty.
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PERT is eminently suitable for research and development programs, aerospace projects and other projects involving new technology. In such projects the time required for completing various activities can be highly variable. The PERT is probabilistic
.
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The milestones generally are numbered so that the ending node of an activity has a higher number than the beginning node. Incrementing the numbers by 10 allows for new ones to be inserted without modifying the numbering of the entire diagram. The activities in the above diagram are labeled with letters along with the expected time required to complete the activity.
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Identify activities and milestones The activities are the tasks required to complete the project. The milestones are the events marking the beginning and end of one or more activities. Determine activity sequence This step may be combined with the activity identification step since the activity sequence is known for some tasks. Other tasks may require more analysis to determine the exact order in which they must be performed. Construct the Network Diagram Using the activity sequence information, a network diagram can be drawn showing the sequence of the serial and parallel activities. Estimate activity times Weeks are a commonly used unit of time for activity completion, but any consistent unit of time can be used. A distinguishing feature of PERT is its ability to deal with uncertainty in activity completion times.
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For each activity, the model usually includes three time estimates: Optimistic time (to) - Generally the shortest time in which the activity can be completed. (This is what an inexperienced manager believes!) Most likely time (tm) - The completion time having the highest probability. This is different from expected time. Seasoned managers have an amazing way of estimating very close to actual data from prior estimation errors. Pessimistic time (tp) - The longest time that an activity might require. The expected time for each activity can be approximated using the following weighted average: Expected time = (to + 4tm+ tp) / 6 This expected time might be displayed on the network diagram. Variance for each activity is given by: [(to - tp) / 6]2 3/1/2012
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Benefits of PERT
PERT is useful because it provides the following information: Expected project completion time. Probability of completion before a specified date. The critical path activities that directly impact the completion time. The activities that have slack time and that can lend resources to critical path activities. Activities start and end dates.
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Limitations of PERT
The following are some of PERT's limitations: The activity time estimates are somewhat subjective and depend on judgment. In cases where there is little experience in performing an activity, the numbers may be only a guess. In other cases, if the person or group performing the activity estimates the time there may be bias in the estimate.
The underestimation of the project completion time due to alternate paths becoming critical is perhaps the most serious
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
a b c d e f g h i j k
a b a c, d e e e h f g
b, d c e e f, g, h j k I i i
(1,2) (2,3) (3,4) (2,4) (4,5) (5,6) (5,7) (5,8) (8,9) (6,8) (7,8)
2 2 3 2 4 5 5 5 8 6 7
2 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 8 8
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NETWORK
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b, d
8.0
8.6
6.3
14.7
c, d
f, g, h
4.1
1.1
3.7
5.0
4.2
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For PERT: Expected time (te) = (to + 4tm + tp)/6 where: to = most optimistic time estimate tm = most likely time estimate tp = most pessimistic time estimate
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Identify the critical path. Why is it the critical path? What about other paths?
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CALCULATING EARLIEST START AND FINISH TIMES Earliest start (ES) time Earliest possible time an activity can begin is the latest of the earliest finish (EF) times of the proceeding activities Thus ES (3,4) = EF (2,3) = 16.6 months Earliest finish time Sum of the earliest time an activity can begin and the time (t) required to complete the activity Thus EF (2,3) = ES (2,3) + t(2,3) = 8 + 8.8 = 16.6 months EF (3,4) = ES (3,4) + t(3,4) = 16.6 + 6.3 = 22.9 months
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CALCULATING LATEST START AND FINISH TIMES Latest start (LS) time The latest time an activity can be started without delaying completion of the project Latest finish (LF) time Sum of the latest start time of an activity and the time (t) taken to complete it Examples LS i (8,9) = 36.2 - 4.2 = 32 months LF i (8,9) = 32 + 4.2 = 36.2 months
LS f (5,6) = 32-1.1 = 30.9 months LF f (5,6) = 30.9 +1.1 = 32 months LS a (5,7) = 32 - 3.7 = 28.3 months LF a (5,7) = 28.3 + 3.7 = 32 months
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Activity
Earliest
Latest
Slack
Start
Finish
Start
Finish
Start
Finish
0.0
8.0
0.0
8.0
0.0
0.0
8.0
16.6
8.0
16.6
0.0
0.0
16.6
22.9
16.6
22.9
0.0
0.0
8.0
0.2
0.2
22.9
27.0
22.9
27.0
0.0
0.0
27.0
28.1
30.9
32.0
3.9
3.9
27.0
30.7
28.3
32.0
1.3
1.3
27.0
32.0
27.0
32.0
0.0
0.0
i 3/1/2012
32.0
36.2
32.0
36.2
0.0
0.0 35
Total slack Difference between late start and early start times or Difference between latest finish and earliest finish times
Free slack Difference between early finish time of an activity and the earliest of the early start times of all its immediate successors
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a b c d e f g h i
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From the above discussion we can reach a decision that the network analysis is the way by which we can minimize our cost, time, and also utilize our idle resources. It will be fruitful if we can complete the project within the time by using network analysis. So it is also be useful to take the decision promptly and accurately.
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