Ghaleb Y. Abbasi, Adnan M.

Mukattash
International Journal Of Project Management 19 (2001)

Advance Project Management Assignment

Submitted By: Ibrahim H. Malubhaiwala (40) Jasmeet Singh Bhatia (41) Manish Pashine (53) Mayank Kumar Sharma (54)

Introduction
Aim of the study is to develop an approach for crashing

pessimistic time in PERT networks Crashing is done by investing additional amount of money in order to reduce variance and project duration This increases the probability of completing the project in the given time Concept of crashing in CPM is applied to PERT networks

Model Construction
Probability of certain project meeting a time T, for a

particular event is equal to

where,

 The amount of money ri is invested in each activity at

critical path, to reduce the pessimistic time from b to , the expected project duration from and the standard deviation from to respectively After investing additional amount of money, the new expected duration and new variance for each activity would be

 The new expected duration of activities lying on the

CP would be

 The new variance would be

And the amount of money invested on all activities

 The probability of realizing the terminal node

 Or,

 Since the amount of money invested will reduce the

expected time, the new expected time for critical activities is

The equation of new expected time becomes

And the new variance becomes

 Reducing the certain variance by certain percent

means reducing the standard deviation by the same percent, hence above equation can be written as

 Also from eq (16) we get

By substituting eq (20) and (21), the following is

obtained
This means the amount of money invested in certain

activities will reduce pessimistic time and its variance

 The new expected duration of CP activities

After approximating

function, the above eq.

becomes

 Since the decrease in variance is the function of

then the new variance of CP activities would be

After approximating

function, above eq. can be

written as

 After investing amount

on each CP activity, the new expected duration and new variance are the function of . The probability of realizing the terminal node is where,

Where,

 Then Z becomes

Eq. (32) represents the mathematical model, which represents the objective function and the constraints

 The whole model can be re-written as follows

such that

Linearizing the Mathematical Model

Eq. (33) can be expanded using Taylors expansion for

multi dimensional function. Then the linearized model would be

 From above Eq. the first the first term is constant

Hence the Eq. (34) can be re-written as

Subject to

 A program was developed to substitute the values

of and in the linearized constructed model. The output of this program is the linear equation, which is the objective function of the following form:

where is constant and is the coefficient of the additional amount of money which must be invested on the first activity on CP

Algorithm development

Contd..

Case Study

 Table shows time estimates of all the activities

 Values of qi and si are suggested by experts for each

activity By substituting the values of in the development model we get the objective function

 Next by specifying the value of

, we get the

constraint of the objective function

 Then we continue the steps of the algorithm, by

finding the value of the objective function Z and substituting in Eq. (37) we get Z=-0.36476 and
Also we continue by linearizing the model around

to

get the following objective function

Conclusion
The objective of the paper was to increase the

probability of realizing the last node by minimizing pessimistic time, which led to decrease in project duration and deviation By investing additional amount of money the probability of completing the project increased from 20.7% to 35%. Moreover the scheduled time decreased from 421 days to 413 days