Sadat Academy for Management Science Faculty of management sciences Information systems

Introduction. 1. Urban Growth Modeling Perspective. 2. Modeling Techniques of Urban Growth Prediction 3. Main Criteria for Evaluating Urban Growth Predictive Models. 4. Comparison of Urban Growth Prediction Models for Selecting the Appropriate Ones for the Study. 5. Conclusion.
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Understanding the urban growth development process and the

interaction between its factors (humanity and nature) is a

prerequisite to the prediction of land use/cover change and its ecological impacts change, furthermore in urban development

planning and sustainable growth management ( Frank, 2000 : pp.

99-105) However, prediction without a scientific understanding of the system under study implies a certain degree of uncertainty

because of the various unknown factors involved (Cheng, 2003 :

pp. 50-51). These factors include many actors, multi behaviors and various policies, which will affect its spatial and temporal complexity
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Complex systems are generally difficult to understand and control.

They are nonlinear which makes it hard to predict their future

behavior based on experience. System dynamics is a method that is used to study complex systems by way of computerized

modeling and simulation.(Viste and Skartveit, 2004: 229-241). The

simplest definition of a complex system is one that can respond in more than one way to its environment, response arises from the

fact that non-linear dynamics processes within the system (Allen,

2001: pp.729-644).
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The non-linear processes that inherent in the urban growth processes opens up the possibility for emergencies (sudden changes) that are difficult or impossible to predict due to the hidden complexity of reality (Batty, and Torrens, 2001 : pp. 3-23). Complex systems are generally difficult to understand and control. They are nonlinear which makes it hard to predict their future behavior based on experience. System dynamics is a method that is used to study complex systems by way of computerized modeling and

simulation.(Viste and Skartveit, 2004: 229-241). There are a few spatial modeling methods, which can be used for the exploration of urban growth in Aswan city.
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Hence, some toolkits are based on one of the spatial simulation

approaches such as Cellular Automata (CA), Artificial of Neural

Networks (ANN), geostatic or fractal theory. CA systems are being considered as proper tools for exploring a broad range of principal

theoretical issues in dynamics and evaluation (Batty et al.,1999 :

pp. 205233), while ANN can be used either for pattern recognition.

while ANN can be used either for pattern recognition or

classification and in many disciplines with a high degree of
difficulty, which have been extensively and successfully applied (de Almeida, 2005 : p.4).
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Modeling is a simplification of some reality, which involves extract the core of that reality to some smaller representation, models are theorized as hypotheses inductively with respect to data or prior ideas and are then tested and refined through confronting their predictions with new data both deductively and inductively (Batty, and Torrens, 2001 : pp. 3-23). Todays urban growth changes are linked with the causes and forces of different aspects of built and natural environment. Some urban policies have caused the urban growth area with undesirable issues such as environmental damages. According to sustainable city form debates (Jenks, et al., 1996 : pp. 8396), recognizing effective forces could be useful idea to assess the urban policies.
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1. Background
Urban planning was born in the 1950s. In the 1960st the 'new tools for planning' were thought to be a major technological breakthrough that would revolutionize the practice of urban policy making. There are important number of cities in the world already had ambitious land use and transportation models running, and some of these models were already assisting planning activities . In 1973 Douglass Lee published , the famous Requiem for large-scale models identifying the seven major of large-scale models: 1. hyper comprehensiveness: the early models tried to replicate too large and too complex a system in only one

2. Grossness: aiming for a large number of results obtained from the models, the information outputted by them was too rough to be used in practice. 3. Hungriness: these models demand an enormous amount of data. 4. Wrongheadedness: the models often deduced behaviors for some relationships that could not be generalized for a different subset of data obtained from the same problem. 5. Complicatedness: the results of those models were somewhat so complex that they usually need some kind of exogenous intervention that would rebalance the output, with the consequent lost of scientific validity.
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6. Mechanicalness: the systematic errors due to mathematical processes usually produced large amounts of untraceable errors. 7. Expensiveness: the first theoretical and operational models from the 1960s were too much expensive, in the order of a few millions of dollars. So to make progress in urban growth models, Lee (1973 : pp. 163-178) reach to four major conclusions that are: 1) Models should be more intuitive for potential users. 2) Models should combine strong theoretical foundations, objective information and judgment in order to eliminate

the empiricism, the abstract, mainly futile and theorizing

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3) Planners should start from simple, well defined problems,

towards methods aimed to well identified purposes and

finally 4) Models should be simple by nature since complex models had failed to simulate real life. Also will highlight on the background of urban growth

modeling and its evolution both from traditional to

dynamic models:
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Traditional urban models, developed in the style of the spatial interaction model, were pioneered in a time in which the field of urban simulation was radically different from current manifestations (Lee, 1994 : pp. 35-40). the traditional models have limitations and listed in the following:

1) A centralized structure. 2) Bad at handling dynamics. 3) Weak attention to detail. 4) Little usability, flexibility and realism.

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The Complex Urban Models are in their beginning applied as a new class of urban simulation tools that borrow heavily from developments in geographic information science, artificial intelligence and artificial life, complexity studies, and simulation (Torrens, 2001) of socio-economic phenomena, biological phenomena, economies, human societies (Bryden and Noble, 2006 : pp. 520-526) and much more in natural sciences and social science outside of geography.

2. Concepts of Traditional and Complex Urban Models

Next figure shows a model is an abstraction of reality or a representation of a real object or situation. In other words, a model presents a simplified version of something. It may be as

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[Figure 5-1] Simplified View on Modeling (Welden, 2000 : p.9)

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It is broadly defined as abstraction or approximation of reality achieved by simplification of complex real world relations to the point that they are understandable and analytically manageable. Ideally, once a simulation has been calibrated against a known scenario, the model may be used to make predictions about the future state of that system. Traditional urban models have two essential principles to the process of developing good models (Batty and Torrens, 2001: pp. 3-23): a) The first principle, relates to economization, which propose that a better model can explain the same phenomena with a fewer number of basic rules. This is often require interpreting a few or much data as is needed. According to this 15 conceptual concept models simplify the theories in the real

b)The second principle, relates to its independence in verification, through using one set of needed data to be validated against another independent set of data (Batty and Torrens, 2001: pp. 3-23). The previous two principles illustrate the criteria that are rarely fulfilled in traditional urban modeling. Parsons, (2010 : pp. 1-6) discussed the details and the concepts of complex models that originate in the physical and biological sciences and have mathematical foundations in the following seven factors: 1)Self-organizing: In a self-organizing dynamic, many semiindependent and diverse agents, who are free to act in 16

2)Sensitivity to initial conditions: In complex systems, very small differences in initial conditions can have a disproportionately large impact on future events. Because of such sensitivity (and other factors), outcomes at specific times or locations within self-organizing systems are unpredictable. 3)Emergence: New, unexpected structures, patterns, properties, or processes emerge in self-organizing systems. These are higher level phenomena that unexpectedly come about from the actions of a multiplicity of small occurrences. The small occurrences were not planned to create the new order. The emergence of the new is not controlled by a single

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4)Macro patterns: When a relatively large group of semiautonomous agents are self-organizing, they frequently create macro patterns (patterns of the whole group). These patterns are defined by underlying simple rules. The agents are not necessarily conscious of the underlying rules of behavior and no one agent controls the behaviors. 5)Feedback: Agents in self-organizing dynamics are learning from one another and the context through feedback. As they get signals from other agents, they modify their behavior. In order to adjust the pattern over time and space, it is critical to link feedback to the underlying simple rules that create the pattern of the whole. Humans, as conscious beings, have even more complex feedback mechanisms that shape their
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6)Co-evolution: refers to the interdependent evolution of two or more systems within a larger ecological system. Cooperation, competition, and interdependence in relation to the same limited resources create feedback among the systems. For example, a service provider system and the community can be thought of as co-evolving when there is mutual feedback. Each system is shaping the other and shifting patterns of each system in an interdependent way. 7)Pattern formation and points of influence: Dynamic patterns arise among agents and between agents and their environments over time and location as relationships, boundaries, and differences in energy occur. Although the patterns are too complex to be controlled, it is possible to influence patterns by intentionally adjusting relationships, 19

As Wheeler, M. et al., (2002 : pp. 87100) have already been noted that to assess the role and value of complex urban simulation there are four needed principles:
1.To address deep questions of comparability.
2.A record of experience. 3.A record of how good solutions are designed.

4.A record of how to chose parameters and calibrate.

3.Objectives of Traditional and Complex Urban Models. There are a variety of land use change models, particularly for urban landscapes, already exist, ranging from specific case studies to generic tools for a variety of urban regions.
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These models differ largely in terms of their structure, their representation of both space and human decisions, and their methodological implementation. Compared to land use change models in open landscapes, urban areas are shaped particularly by human activities, societal processes and humannature interactions.
According to Miller E.J, et al. (2004 : pp. 9-44), an integrated urban growth systems model should include socio-demographic components (evolution of population), demographics (demographic change and migration into and out of a region), decision-making (location choices of households and firms), economic variables (labor market, import/export of goods and 21

transportation (activity and travel patterns of population, goods and services, depending upon urban structure and economic interchanges, performance of road and transit systems) and respective effects on land use (evolution of the built up environment) and environment (atmospheric emissions generated by transportation and industry). The general objective that can be provided through modeling Aswan City urban growth in this research is to achieving a systematic study of urban structure change during the 1986, 1996 and 2006 period .

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3.Advantage of Traditional and Complex Urban Models The advantage of modeling urban growth are : a) Prevents sprawl patterns of urban that would lead to creating new problems b) Decreasing spatial disintegration of urban settlements which could lead to social and physical threats and natural hazards as well. (Jenks et al. 2000 : pp.118) Certainly the negative impacts of the lack of development in Aswan City can be refer to three main items: 1)Environmental Degradation. Environmental damages include increasing impervious surfaces and degraded water quality, loss of wild life habitat and poor air quality.
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2) City Degradation. City degradation consists of more crowded traffic and longer commutes, loss of local business. 3) Social Degradation. Social problems including decline in economic opportunity, reduced access to open space, and reduced social interaction that threatens the way people live together (Jenks et al. 2000 : pp.118). Hence, modeling indicates a methodology to be followed in drawing models. As reality is complicated in essence, it is not expected that mathematical models alone capable to directly solve all complex or ill structured issues. Human thinking is the most complex process of modeling, which can structure complex issues into simple form. This modeling to some extent results in the steps or procedures 24 to simplify complex issues.

4. a) b) c) d)

Types of Traditional and Complex Urban Models Descriptive Models (To Guide Practice). Explanatory Models (To Explain Phenomena). Predictive Models (To Predict Outcome). Operational Models (To Enlighten Understanding).

Although descriptive models could demonstrate the urban change using mathematical methods this research will focus only on predictive models that using combination of artificial inelegant and mathematical methods , i.e. as the dynamic models, because of their capability to illustrate the dynamic urban change processes,
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especially the tremendous worldwide expansion of urban population and urbanized area, that affect natural and human systems at all geographic scales (Brockheroff, 2000 : pp. 3-44).

predictive models (PM) as a process is used in predictive analytics to create a statistical model of the urban change for future behavior such as communities, preferences and for approaching actions or locations. So the concept of predictive models is defined as that model which attempt to foresee what will happen with new data (de Almeida, 2005 : pp. 2-12).
PM may employ a simple linear equation or a complex neural network, and may be mapped out by sophisticated software (Search Data Management, 2002).
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The urban systems as dynamic ones require (PM) that incorporate the element of time more explicitly. Comparative static models of the Lowry model, which was one of the first transportation / land use model to be developed for the Pittsburgh region (Rodrigue, 2009).

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Predictive models are used to simulate a dynamic process of urban growth system, through interaction between the urban system actors in non-linear, dynamic, and self-organized). A series of new attempts were made and a new types of modeling began with the new computational resources provided by micro computation (Cheng, et al., 2003). Researchers seek new mathematical approaches founded in much more complex theories, such as Spatial statistics, agentbased simulation, or cellular automata, as the capacity of processing data at lower costs increased exponentially (Waddell and Ulfarsson, 2004 : pp. 203-236).The following methods have generally aggregate remote sensing data as the 28

According to Sudhira, et al., (2004 : pp. 29-39) GIS could provide the urban simulator with suitable platforms for data management, spatial analysis and visualization.

Currently there are many different methods to classifying the urban growth models, such as in terms of system completeness, dimension, and objectives of analysis. Moving towards the general purpose of understanding the complexity of urban growth, attempt to classify them as cellular automata(CA) modeling, Agent-Based (AB) modeling, Neural Network (ANN) modeling, Fractal Modeling etc., according to the methods available for modeling complexity and non-linearity (Cheng, et al., 2003).
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The following lines focuses on the background and the features of all dynamic urban growth predictive models only that are required to move the methods of the modeling from static to dynamic, from linear to non-linear, from top-down to bottom-up, due to the randomness, instability and un-changeability (Cheng, and Masser, 2003 : pp. 199-217).
1) Agent-Based Modeling.

Multi-agent (MA) systems are designed as a collection of interacting autonomous agents, each having their own capacities and goals that are situated in a common environment. This interaction might involve communication, i.e. the passing of information from one agent and environment to another (Cheng, et al., 2003).
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Multi-agents have effective features as had been described by White and Engelen, (2000 : pp. 383-440) as:
I. A tool to implement self-organizing theory such as a straightforward way of representing spatial entities or actors having relatively complex properties or behaviors; An easy way to capture directly the interactive properties of many natural and human systems, as well as the complex system behavior that emerges from this interaction .

II.

Cheng, and Masser, (2001 : pp.199-217) inferred that Agent-Based models are not useable to understanding urban growth on a certain scale. However, this type of predictive model could be an ideal tool for understanding decision-making complexity of urban growth at micro scale, such as a single large-scale project
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2) Fractal-Based Modeling Fractal model is used originally for natural objects such as coastlines, plants and clouds or fuzzy mathematics and computer graphics. Recently, however, increasing analytical geographical analysis and analytical urban modeling have shown that planned and designed spatial (Batty and Longley, 1994). These models are considered that fractal dimension is one of the few concepts that are directly relevant to the problem of urban complexity which is formed by means of a simple process, and these forms are often very suggestive of real urban areas. But Li, and Yeh, ( 2001 : pp. 733 753) noted that fractal should be the measures of spatial complexity of urban spatial patterns which are difficult to interpret due to the fact that the same value of fractal dimension may represent different forms or structures. It is also limited in urban process modeling as the temporal dimension which is not incorporated in modeling.
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3) ANN-Based Modeling. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is considered as a proper method of study non-linear spatial pattern, which will be in short-term prediction based. The main advantage of ANN is its dependency on particular functional relationships that makes no assumption regarding the properties of the data and variables are related to each other. This point makes the ANN a potentially strong modeling mean for exploring non-linear complex problems (Olden and Jackson 2001 : pp. 878-897). ANN model is used to test a connection between socio-economic and demographic variables and travel activities. Rodrigue (1997 : pp. 259-271) considered that sequential urban modeling does not represent complex urban dynamics well, and he proposed a parallel network (back-propagation algorithm) model to simulate the spatial 33 process and spatial pattern of integrated transport/land use system.

3) Cellular Automata-Based Modeling. Cellular automata are dynamic systems, which are discrete in space and time, operate on uniform, regular lattice and are characterized by local interactions. These modeling systems are computable objects existing in time and space whose states change discretely and uniformly as a function of the states of neighboring objects (cell). CA have also been described as a diffusion (de Almeida, et al., 2002 : pp. 3-34). Besides land use modeling, CA has been used for modeling deforestation (Menard & Marceau, 2007), and social phenomena (Smith & Stevenes, 1996) to mention a few application. The limitations of contemporary GIS include, its poor ability to handle dynamic spatial models, poor performance for many operations, and poor handling of the temporal dimension (Park and Wagner, 1997 : 34 pp. 213-231),.

In coupling GIS with CA, CA can serve as an analytical engine to provide a flexible framework for the programming and running of dynamic spatial models.

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A major distinction among of the predictive modeling methods can be drawn on the purpose and the objective of Aswan city urban growth study.

Cheng, and Masser, (2003 : pp.199-217), had referred the major

criteria for evaluating the operation of various methods are: 1) Data Requirement:

Aided by new spatial data capture technologies such as very highresolution remote sensing satellites and global positioning systems (GPS), relatively accurate and comprehensive digital data sets of metropolitan areas collected and maintained by public agencies are now becoming widely available (Longley, 1998 : pp.53-56).
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Remote sensing possibly provides a strong data source framework within which to monitor change and understand urban growth (Cheng, 2003 : pp. 50-51). According to this criteria, the available

data for this research is the Remote Sensing imagery for the period
1986, 1998 and 2003. 2) Linkage With GIS: GIS can provide the urban modeler with new platforms for data management, spatial analysis and visualization. Loose, close and tight coupling strategies are frequently adopted (Cheng, 2003 : pp. 50-51) .

Also for this criteria, there are three census data which had done for 37

3) Interpretability Urban growth modeling aims to understand complexity and nonlinear processes, therefore the capacity of interpretation is critical,

its remains a useful way of estimating these probabilities despite

the development of procedures for estimating transition probabilities on the basis of more complex scientific consideration. ANNs have a greater predictive and non-linear power than traditional approaches. Moreover, Cheng (2003 : pp. 50-51) reported that ANNs property provides little explanatory insight into the relative influence of the independent variables in the prediction

process.

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4) Primary Purpose Scope of Work. Batty and Torrens (2001 : pp. 3-23) had explained that, the predictive models focus on the status of a habitat, biological population, or biological community, i.e. landscapes, human actions, land use change,. Each model method have its own scope of work according to the purpose should chose the suitable method. 5) Software Availability:

Predictive modeling is a process by which software applications that uses mathematical, artificial intelligent methods in order to predict the probability of various urban growth based on information given to it. all previous methods are now available and used in a wide variety of fields in an attempt to predict results in climate change or urban change which are this research interest. 39

which model does better to simulating Aswan city urban growth?. To answer this question, it is necessary to define two considered features in the predictive indicated models for this research: I. The first feature (as discussed above) is that the term model is used here to indicate mathematical or artificial models implemented on a computer and designed to analyze and forecast the development of urban land use systems. II. The second feature is that the models must be comprehensive, i.e. they must integrate the most essential processes of spatial development; this implies that they must include at least urban land use, where land use indicates a 40 range of land uses such as residential, industrial and

These two features have generally aggregate remote sensing data as the

input to their modeling. GIS could provide the urban simulator with
suitable platforms for data management, spatial analysis and visualization. At present, there is a possibility to combined CA and ANN into GIS softwares (but that is very expensive solution ) such as spatial modeler of ArcView for ANN, fuzzy logic and logistic regression, integration with CA. Because of dynamic and non-linear properties of urban growth process, the capability of interpretation is becoming crucial. The following,

comparison as shown in table [5-1] shows that CA provides more sufficient

environment than other predictive models (Cheng, and Masser, 2001 :

pp.199-217)
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[Table 5-1] Comparison of Modeling Approaches

Predictive Models

Evaluation Criteria

Agent - Based Modeling

Fractal - Based Modeling Aggregate / Remote Sensing Weak

ANN-Based Modeling Aggregate / Remote Sensing Good

Cellular Automata Based Modeling Aggregate / Remote Sensing Good

Data Source
GIS Linkage

Vector only
Good

Interpretability

Good

Weak

Weak

Good

Application Focus

The behavior and human actions

Connection between socio Environmental economic, understanding and demographic landscapes variables and land use change.

Landscapes and land use change

Available Available Available Availability Source: Getchell, A., 2008 ; Chenge et al., 2001; Chenge et al., 2003

Software

Available 42

From comparison, it can be seen that some models are still in the

theoretical stage or applied for artificial city analysis, and need very
good data infrastructure (Yeh and Li, 1998 : pp. 169-189). Some other models are more effective on macro scale than on micro scale, because of the urban growth originate from socio-economic processes, which are important for qualitative analyses of causeeffects at macro scale. So that the spatial data are becoming more available, particularly on

the macro-scale, due to the low price of satellite imagery in recent

years. On this macro-scale, socio economic data are much easier to access as aggregated data that could be based on annual statistics.
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The result from the comparison, indicates that urban growth modeling focuses mainly on spatial complexity understanding such as CA-based dynamic simulation, ANN-based pattern analysis and fractal-based morphology analysis. The difficulty in accessing microscale (smallest level) socio-economic data and higher-resolution (spatial and temporal) data limits the understanding of temporal and decision-making complexity in urban growth (Chenge et al., 2003). Li and Yeh (2001) had concluded in their conducted simulation of land use (e.g. residential, commercial, industrial, etc.) by means of ANN-based CA modeling upon a binary state basis (urban/non urban use).
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They further refined this model as dealing with multiple regional land uses (Li and Yeh, 2002) as well as dealing with simulations for alternative development scenarios (Yeh and Li, 2003 : pp. 1043 1052

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Five main criteria have been chosen and implemented in reviewing

and evaluating the main predictive urban growth models. These criteria are chosen because they are relevant to the following

features related to these study.

1. The available requirement data which is Remote Sensing imagery for the period 1986, 1996 and 2006. 2. The Link to the spatial data and the database of the Aswan city senses 1986, 1996 and 2006 that had done by CAPMAS with the GIS,
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3. The ability of interpretation the Remote Sensing imagery that will

be available by utilizing ANN as a predictive and non-linear model,

4. The scope of work related to this research which focuses on socio-economic, demographic, landscapes and land use change and 5. The available software of ANN and CA. And used the REDAS imagine as a powerful Remote Sensing software. Simulating Aswan city urban growth by integrating the two selected models related to neural networks and cellular automata

with the GIS of Aswan city is considered application.

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Preparation of various development scenarios utilizing these two

models is being considered its important in urban and regional

planning for this study. White and Engelen (1993 : pp. 11751199) Concluded the output of such integrated CA and GIS based modeling would be related to land use map with defined classes, such as residential, commercial, vacant, agriculture, transport networks that is changeable under different scenarios. Although CA models have been increasingly used in urban growth

simulation, there are very limited studies in applying them to urban

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Therefore, the use of neural networks can greatly simplify the

structure

of

CA

models.

The

neural-network-based

model

significantly reduces the requirements for explicit knowledge for identifying relevant criteria, assigning scores, and determining preference criteria.

The model of Aswan urban growth can effectively map the nonlinear features of Aswan urban systems through the use of neural network within it. Also, the parameter of values for urban simulation can be automatically obtained by this NN.
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The already utilized NN procedures are being simple because of the

use of the back-propagation algorithm associated with it.

The ANN training data can also be obtained from the classification of remote sensing imagery and GIS analyses (Yeh & Li ,2003 : pp. 10431052) that could be gathered and handled for the purpose of this study.

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Thank you!