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FUTURES MARKET: MEANING, PARTIES, TRADING PROCEDURE, HEDGING STRATEGIES, VALUATION, SEBI GUIDELINES
Birth of futures
Forward contracts were useful, but only up to a point. They didnt eliminate the risk of default among the parties involved in the trade. For example, merchants might default on the forward agreements if they found the same product cheaper elsewhere, leaving farmers with the goods and no buyers.
Conversely, farmers could also default if prices went up dramatically before the forward contract delivery date, and they could sell to someone else at a much higher price.
Why? They were speculating taking a chance that as market conditions changed they would be able to buy or sell the contracts at a profit.
The ability to eliminate a position on a contract by buying or selling it before the delivery date called offsetting is a key feature of futures trading.
The clearinghouse
Clearing house becomes sellers buyer and buyers seller. Let us say, buyer and seller agree on a $4 per bushel (min 5000 bushels) contract wheat futures contract
Promise to pay $20,000 Buyer Promise to deliver 5, 000 bushels Seller
Buyer
Clearinghouse
Seller
With required maintenance margin 1 2 4 4.10 Deposit initial margin Mark to market Buyer withdraws cash 3 3.95 Mark to market Buyer deposits cash 4 4.15 Mark to market Reversing trade and withdrawal of cash 1000 500 -500 -750 750 1000 -2000 1000 1500 1000 250 1000 2000 0
Futures
Since B is involved in two wheat contracts, one as a seller and one as a buyer, B is obligated to deliver 5000 bushels to clearing house and clearing house in turn is required to deliver it back to B.
The moment B offsets his positions, clearing house will immediately cancel both of them, and B will be able to withdraw $2000 from his account.
The procedures that protect clearinghouse from potential losses due to noncompliance of the buyer or seller are:
Impose initial margin requirements on both buyers and sellers Mark to market the accounts of buyers and sellers every day Impose daily maintenance margin requirements on both buyers and sellers.
A performance bond is a deposit to cover losses you may incur on a futures contract as it is marked-to-market. A maintenance performance bond is a minimum amount of money (a lesser amount than the initial performance bond) that must be maintained on deposit in your account. A performance bond call is a demand for an additional deposit to bring your account up to the initial performance bond level.
In futures, this down payment is actually a good faith deposit you pay to indicate that you will be able to ensure fulfillment of the contract.
Futures contracts require an initial performance bond in an amount determined by the exchange itself. This amount is roughly 5% to 15% of the total purchase price of the futures contract. This margin covers only a part of the protection against the total loss in the case of default. Therefore, the use of marking to market coupled with a maintenance margin requirement provides the requisite amount of additional protection.
Marked-to-the-market
At the end of the trading day your position is marked-to-the-market. That is, the clearing house will settle your account on a cash basis. Money will be added to your performance bond balance if your position has made a profit that day. If youve sustained a loss that day, money is deducted from your performance bond account. This rebalancing occurs each day after the close of trading.
That is, the futures price moves closer to the cash price during the delivery month.
Long Hedge
Suppose on June 1, Ms. Deepa realizes she needs to purchase 110,000 pieces of wood planks on September 1.
Todays cash price for wood planks is $300 per 1000 board feet ($300/MBF). She observes that September Lumber futures are currently trading at $305/MBF.
She also knows that historically the futures price in September tends to be about $5/MBF higher than the cash price. So Deepa figures that by buying a September Lumber futures contract in June at $305, she is locking in a price of about $300.
Cash market
Futures market
June 1
Needs to buy wood planks in September for $300/MBF to make desired profit.
Cash price rises to $315/MBF. Deepa buys lumber for $315/MBF. Deepa pays $15/MBF more for lumber than she wanted to.
Sep 1
Results
However, she gains $15/MBF when she sells the futures contract.
Cash market
Futures market
June 1
Sep 1
Results
Risk Management
The futures market is specifically designed for hedgers, or commercial participants, to minimize their chance of loss due to adverse price moves in the cash market. Hedgers are firms or individuals whose businesses include the same or similar commodities as those traded in the futures markets. The hedger attempts to reduce the risk of price uncertainty through the purchase or sale of futures contracts. By entering into futures contracts, hedgers can effectively lock in a price that will make their revenues or costs more predictable. This is risk management.
By now you should be wondering how the hedger can rid himself of unwanted risk.
The risk cannot just disappear. Someone has to take that risk. Who are these risk takers? Theyre known as speculators.
We know that there is a relationship between the price of the commodity in the cash market and price of that commodity in the futures market. The futures market price should reflect the storage cost of that commodity unto that future date plus the cash price of that commodity today and any other costs. If futures price is more than this price (= cash price + storage cost + other costs) then there is a possibility of arbitrage.
One will purchase the commodity today, store it and at the same time short a futures contract to deliver it on the futures date.
Repo Rate
The repo rate is the finance charges faced by traders. The repo rate is the interest rate on repurchase agreements.
A Repurchase Agreement
An agreement where a person sells securities at one point in time with the understanding that he/she will repurchase the security at a certain price at a later time.
Arbitrage
An Arbitrageur attempts to exploit any discrepancies in price between the futures and cash markets.
An academic arbitrage is a risk-free transaction consisting of purchasing an asset at one price and simultaneously selling it that same asset at a higher price, generating a profit on the difference.
Example: riskless arbitrage scenario for INFOSYS stock trading on the NSE and BSE.
Assumptions:
Perfect futures market No taxes No transactions costs Commodity can be sold short
Price Exchange Arbitrageur Buys INFY Arbitrageur Sells INFY Riskless Profit (1105) BSE 1110 NSE 5
3 Short Position 1
2. Normal Backwordation
A hedger (for example, a farmer) who is selling a futures contract is trying to lock in the price of the commodity in future. i.e. the hedger is trying to reduce the risk, but this risk has to be borne by somebody i.e. speculators. Now question is if the future price equals the spot price + storage costs + other costs exactly, what the speculator will earn by bearing the risk? Therefore, the speculator will agree to that future price where he expects that the spot price on the delivery date will be higher than futures price.
In the world of certainty, the futures price is equal to the current spot price plus the carrying charges until the delivery month.
F 0 , t S 0 (1 C 0 , t ) F 0 , d F 0 , n (1 Cn , d )
If the futures price is higher than that specified by above equations, the market is said to be above full carry. If the futures price is below that specified by the above equations, the market is said to be below full carry.
Suppose that:
Step 1: compute the annualized percentage difference between two futures contracts.
AD
(F ) F
0, d 0. N
12 M 1
Where
AD = Annualized percentage difference M = Number of months between the maturity of the contracts. futures
12 $417.90 3 AD 1 $410.20
AD 0.0772
Step 2: compare the annualized difference to the interest rate in the market. The gold market is almost always at full carry. Other markets can diverge substantially from full carry.
Large Supply
If the supply of an asset is large relative to its consumption, the market will tend to be closer to full carry. If the supply of an asset is low relative to its consumption, the market will tend to be further away from full carry.
Non-Seasonal Production
To the extent that production of a crop is seasonal, temporary imbalances between supply and demand can occur. In this case, prices can vary widely. Example: in North America, wheat harvest occurs between May and September.
Non-Seasonal Consumption
To the extent that consumption of commodity is seasonal, temporary imbalances between supply and demand can occur. Example: propane gas during winter Turkeys during thanksgiving
High Storability
A market moves closer to full carry if its underline commodity can be stored easily. The Cost-of-Carry Model is not likely to apply to commodities that have poor storage characteristics. Example: eggs
Initial basis at date 0 (B0,T)will always be known since both the current spot and forward contract prices can be observed. Consider an investor who hedges her long position in a commodity by taking a short position in a forward contract(delivering the commodity at maturity).
Suppose, cotton prices have declined so that cash price in June are $0.4660 and futures are trading at $0.4753.
Basis has increased in value or strengthened, which is to the short hedgers advantage.
At the same time she also sells the futures for its contract value i.e. $0.5305 whereas the market future price is $0.4753; it means that she has made a profit of (0.5305 0..4753) = $0.0552
Similarly, one can calculate the profit for the long hedger as
B0,T Bt,T = (S0 F0,T) (St Ft,T)
An Exchange-for-Physicals Transaction
Before the EFP Trader A Long 1 wheat futures Wants to acquire actual wheat Trader A Agrees with Trader B to purchase wheat and cancel futures Receives wheat; pays Trader B Reports EFP to exchange; exchange adjusts books to show that Trader A is out of the market Trader B Short 1 wheat futures Owns wheat and wishes to sell EFP Transaction Trader B Agrees with Trader A to sell wheat and cancel futures Delivers wheat; receives payment from Trader A Reports EFP to exchange; exchange adjusts books to show that Trader B is out of the market
Since the futures or forwards dont require front-end from either the long or short transaction; therefore, the contracts initial market value is usually zero.
Spread F 0, t k F 0, t
F0,t = The current futures price for delivery of the product at time t.
This might be the price of a futures contract on wheat for delivery in 3 months.
F0,t+k = The current futures price for delivery of the product at time t +k.
This might be the price of a futures contract for wheat for delivery in 6 months.
The relationship between spot and forward prices Suppose you buy the corn now for the current cash price of S0 per bushel and store
it until you have to deliver it at date T, the forward price you would be willing to commit would have to be high enough to cover
The present cost of the corn and The cost of storing the corn until contract maturity
F0,T = S0 + SC0,T
= S0 + (PC0, T + i 0, T D0, T)
Assumptions:
There are no transaction costs or margin requirements. There are no restrictions on short selling. Investors can borrow and lend at the same rate of interest.
Cash-and-carry arbitrage
Reverse cash-and-carry arbitrage
A cash-and-carry arbitrage
A cash-and-carry arbitrage occurs when a trader borrows money, buys the goods today for cash and carries the goods to the expiration of the futures contract. Then, delivers the commodity against a futures contract and pays off the loan. Any profit from this strategy would be an arbitrage profit.
0 1
4. Deliver the commodity against the futures contract 5. Recover money & payoff loan
1. Sell short the commodity 2. Lend money received from short sale 3. Buy futures contract
4. Accept delivery from futures contract 5. Use commodity received to cover the short sale
F 0 , t S 0(1 C 0 , t )
S0 F0,t = = the current spot price the current futures price for delivery of the product at time t.
C0,t = the percentage cost required to store (or carry) the commodity from today until time t.
F 0 , t S 0(1 C 0 , t )
0 1
Another example
Suppose the stock is trading today at 120 when the risk-free rate of interest is 5% What should be the forward price of the stock at the end of one year? 120 x 1.05 = 126 Now, if the forward/futures price is 128. Is there any arbitrage possibility? If yes, calculate the arbitrage profit. Assume
The stock is not paying any dividend during the period. Storage cost is NIL
F 0 , t S 0(1 C 0 , t ) 1
4. Collect proceeds from loan 5. Accept delivery on futures contract 6. Use gold from futures contract to repay the short sale
1. Sell short 1 oz. gold 2. Lend $420 at 10% interest 3. Buy a futures contract
Another example
Suppose the stock is trading today at 120 when the risk-free rate of interest is 5% What should be the forward price of the stock at the end of one year? 120 x 1.05 = 126 Now, if the forward/futures price is 123. Is there any arbitrage possibility? If yes, calculate the arbitrage profit. Assume
The stock is not paying any dividend during the period. Storage cost is NIL
Since the futures price must be either greater than or equal to the spot price plus the cost of carrying the commodity forward by rule #1.
And the futures price must be less than or equal to the spot price plus the cost of carrying the commodity forward by rule #2. The only way that these two rules can reconciled so there is no arbitrage opportunity is by the cost of carry rule #3. Rule #3: the futures price must be equal to the spot price plus the cost of carrying the commodity forward to the delivery date of the futures contract.
F 0 , t S 0(1 C 0 , t )
If prices were not to conform to cost of carry rule #3, a cash-and carry arbitrage profit could be earned.
Recall that we have assumed away transaction costs, margin requirements, and restrictions against short selling.
Cost-of-Carry Rule 4
Cost-of-Carry Rule 5 Cost-of-Carry Rule 6
Cost-of-carry rule no 4
The distant futures price must be greater than or equal to the nearby futures price plus the cost of carrying the commodity from the nearby delivery date to the distant delivery date.
F 0, d F 0, n(1 Cn , d )
F0,d = the futures price at t=0 for the distant delivery contract maturing at t=d. Fo,n= the futures price at t=0 for the nearby delivery contract maturing at t=n. Cn,d= the percentage cost of carrying the good from t=n to t=d. If prices were not to conform to cost of carry rule # 4, a cash-and-carry arbitrage profit could be earned.
Rule No 4
0 1 2
1. Buy futures contract w/exp in 1 yrs. 2. Sell futures contract w/exp in 2 years 3. Contract to borrow $400 from yr 1-2
4. Borrow $400 5. Take delivery on 1 yr to exp futures contract. 6. Place the gold in storage for one yr.
7. Remove gold from storage 8. Deliver gold against 2 yr. futures contract 9. Pay back loan
+$400 - 400 0 Total Cash Flow $0 +$450 - 440 Total Cash Flow + $10
t=2
Rule No 5
The nearby futures price plus the cost of carrying the commodity from the nearby delivery date to the distant delivery date cannot exceed the distant futures price. Or alternatively, the distant futures price must be less than or equal to the nearby futures price plus the cost of carrying the commodity from the nearby futures date to the distant futures date.
Rule N0 5
0 1 2
1. Sell futures contract w/exp in 1 yrs. 2. Buy futures contract w/exp in 2 years 3. Contract to lend $400 from yr 1-2
4. Borrow 1 oz. gold 5. Deliver gold on 1 yr to exp futures contract. 6. Invest proceeds from delivery for one yr.
7. Accept delivery on exp 2 yr futures contract 8. Repay 1 oz. borrowed gold. 9. Collect $400 loan
Rule No 6
The distant futures price must equal the nearby futures price plus the cost of carrying the commodity from the nearby to the distant delivery date.
F 0, d F 0, n(1 Cn , d )
If prices were not to conform to cost of carry rule #6, a cash-and-carry arbitrage profit or reverse cash-and-carry arbitrage profit could be earned. Recall that we have assumed away transaction costs, margin requirements, and restrictions against short selling.
A bull market is a market in which prices are rising. When someone is referred to as being bullish, that person has an optimistic outlook that prices will be rising.
Bear Market
A bear market is one in which prices are falling. Therefore, a bearish view is pessimistic, and that person would believe that prices are heading downward.
Going Long
If you were to buy a futures contract to initiate a position, you would be long. A person who has purchased 10 pork belly futures contracts is long 10 pork belly contracts. Someone who is long in the market expects prices to rise. They expect to make money by later selling the contracts at a higher price than they originally paid for them.
Going Short
A more difficult concept involves the sale of futures contracts before buying them. Someone who sells a futures contract to initiate a position is said to be short for example, short 10 pork belly contracts would mean that a person initiated a position by selling those 10 contracts. But dont confuse this concept with someone who originally went long by purchasing futures contracts and is now selling them to offset his or her position in the market.
A short seller has entered into an obligation to deliver a commodity at a future date, at a price agreed upon today, but with the ability to offset that obligation by buying back the futures contract.
Contract Maturities
Futures contracts have limited lives, known as contract maturities. Contract maturity is expressed in terms of months, such as December. The contract maturity designates the time at which deliveries are to be made or taken, unless the trader has offset the contract by an equal, opposite transaction prior to maturity.
Futures contracts are typically traded up to one year into the future, while some commodities may trade more than two years into the future.
Many contracts expire quarterly specifically towards the end of March, June, September and December.
Delivery
Only about 3% of all futures contracts actually result in physical delivery or cash settlement of the commodity. The other 97% are simply offset.
That means that the majority of participants close out their positions prior to the contracts delivery date (sellers buy back the futures they sold, and buyers sell back the futures they bought).
For some futures contracts, such as stock index futures, there is no physical delivery. Rather, positions are closed out through cash settlement.
On the day following the final trading day, open contract positions are settled in cash with no deliveries of the securities. The full value of the contract is not transferred to your performance bond account. Instead there is a final marking-to-themarket of the contract position to the actual index based upon the opening values of the stocks, with the final gain or loss applied to the performance bond accounts.
With this cash delivery feature, liquidity is ensured to the last day of trading of the contract.
Hedge
If you hedge, you buy or sell a futures contract as a temporary substitute for a cash market transaction to be made at a later date.
Hedging usually involves holding opposite positions in the cash market and futures market at the same time.
Hedging is a business management tool used to manage price risk.
Long Hedge
If you put on a long hedge you purchase a futures contract in anticipation of an actual cash market purchase.
Processors or exporters typically use long hedges as protection against an increase in the cash price.
Short Hedge To put on a short hedge you would sell a futures contract in anticipation of a later cash market sale. Traders use short hedges to eliminate or lessen the possible decline in value of ownership of an approximately equal amount of a cash financial instrument or physical commodity.
Speculator
You would be considered a speculator if you bought and sold futures contracts for the sole purpose of making a profit. Speculators attempt to anticipate price changes. They do not use the futures markets in connection with the production, processing, marketing or handling of a product, and have no interest in making or taking delivery.