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By: Aalia Akram Surabhi Gupta Shiwani Awasthi Jaya Kumari Purvi Bajpai
Brief of Probability: The concept originated in seventeenth centaury. The formulae and technique were developed by Jacoub Bernoulle, De Moiver, Thomas Bayed and Joseph Lagrange. Nineteenth centaury -Pierre Simon, Laplace unified all these ideas and compiled general theory of probability.
In probability distribution, the variable are distributed according to some definite probability functions. These distributions occupy a place of great prominence in business decision making.
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Probability distribution is list for all possible occurrences. The probability distribution or the distribution of discrete random variable is a list of distinct values x1 of X together with their associative probabilities, i.e. f(x1)= P(X=x1) The numbers represented by f(x) are all between 0 and Thus we can say that, A listing of the probabilities for every possible value of a random variable is called a Probability Distribution.
An observed frequency distribution: it is a listing of the observed frequencies of all the outcome of an experiment that actually occurred while performing the experiment.
A probability distribution: it is the listing of the probabilities of all possible outcome that could result if the experiment is performed. Theoretical frequency distribution is a probability distribution that outcomes are expected to vary. In other words, it enlists the expected values that is observed values multiplied by corresponding probabilities of all out come.
For example: There are four coins. These are tossed simultaneously 80 times. The possible results which can be obtained, can be arranged in a specific set called Sample Space (S) S= HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, THHH, HHTT, HTHT, HTTH, TTH, THTH, THHT, HTTT, THTT, TTHT, TTTH, TTTT
Total
80
The Probability Distribution is as follows: r: P(r): 0 1/16 1 4/16 2 6/16 3 4/16 4 1/16
o Poisson Distribution
3. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF A CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLE 4. CONTINOUS PROBABILITY DISTRBUTION o Normal Distribution
In discrete random variable, there is a probability value assigned to each event. Also we can say it assumes a finite number of values or a random variable which takes countable values. The distribution follows the three rules required of all probability distribution: 1. The events are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive 2. The individual probability values are between 0 & 1 inclusive 3. The total of probability values sum to 1.
f(x) 0
f(x) = 1 (X = x) = f(x)
II. III.
Examples like the time takes to finish a project, the high temperature of a day etc.
A random variable is continuous if its range forms an uncountable set of real numbers. It is the one in which the random variable r can assume any value between certain limits a and b. the no. of all possible values is then uncountable infinite. With a continuous probability distribution there is a continuous mathematical function that describes the probability distribution. This function is called the probability density function or simply the probability function. It is usually represented by f (r).
CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION Unlike the discrete probability distributions, the concept of associating a probability with each possible value of a continuous random variable is no longer meaningful. In case of continuous random variables, we can only talk about the probability that the random variable falls within a given interval. A continuous probability distribution can be visualized as a discrete probability distribution with a large number of values very close to each other.
PART-2
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
DEFINITION
Binomial is a discrete probability distribution expressing the probability of one set of dichotomous alternatives, i.e., success and failure. Binomial distribution is the discrete probability distribution of the number of successes in a sequence of n independent yes/no experiments, each of which yields success with probability p. Such a success/failure experiment is also called a Bernoulli experiment or Bernoulli trial; when n = 1, the binomial distribution is a Bernoulli distribution.
Bernoulli Trials It is a process wherein an experiment is performed repeatedly, yielding either a success or a failure in each trial and absolutely no pattern of successes and failures.
PROPERTIES
It is a discrete distribution,based on binomial theorem , which gives theoretical probability. There will be two and only two possible outcomes i. e. either success or failure. Each trial is individual and independent. It means that the outcome of any observation is independent of the outcome of any other trial, it neither influences nor be influenced by the outcome of any other trial. The binomial coefficients are given by Pascal triangle.
PROPERTIES
The process is performed under the same conditions for fixed and finite number of trials say n. The probability of a success denoted by p remains the same/constant from trial to trial. The probability of a failure denoted by q is equal to (1-p). If the probability of success is not the same in each trial, we will not have a binomial distribution. It depends on the parameter p or q and n. The shape and location of a binomial distribution changes as p changes for a given n and n changes for a given p.
These are the terms of the binomial (q+p) ^2 because (q+p)^ 2 = q^2 + 2qp + p^2 In general in n tosses of a coin the probabilities of the various events (i.e. obtaining 0, 1, 2, 3 .n heads) are given by the successive terms of the binomial expansion (q+p)^n , which is
(q+p)^ n = q^n + nC1q^(n-1)p + nC2q^(n-2)p^2 ++nCrq^(n-r)p^r + ..+ p^n These terms may be listed in the form of a probability distribution table as follows:
From the above binomial expansion, the following general relationship should be noted:
The number of terms in a binomial expansion is always n+1 The exponents of p and q, for any single term, when added together, always sum to n. The exponents of q are n, (n-1), (n-2).1, 0. Respectively and the exponents of p are 0, 2.. (n-1), n, respectively (note: p0= 1; q0= 1). The coefficients for the n+1 terms of the distribution are always symmetrical ascending to the middle of the series and then descending, When n is odd number, n+1 is even and the coefficients of the two central terms are identical.
Probability of obtaining exactly r successes in a given numbers of n Bernoulli trials is, f (r) = P (X=r) = ncr p^ r q^(n-r) for r = 0, 1, 2, 3, .n
Where,
p = probability of success on a single trial q = probability of failure on a single trial n = number of (Bernoulli) trials r = number of successes in n trials
Find out the binomial distribution to be expected by tossing 4 coins 320 times. Solution: Let X = no. of successes i.e. the no. of heads when 4 coins are tossed n= 4, no. of coins p= Probability of getting a head on a coin = q= 1-p = Possible values of X are: 0 1 2 3 4
The corresponding probabilities are obtained in the expansion (q+p)n: =>(q+p)4 = q4+4C1q3p+4C2q2p2+4C3qp3+p4 =>(1/2 +1/2) 4 = (1/2)4+4(1/2)3(1/2)+6(1/2)2(1/2)2+4(1/2)(1/2)3+(1/2)4 = 1/16+4/16+6/16+4/16+1/16 Thus, we have X=r : 0 1 2 3 4 P (X = r) : 1/16 4/16 6/16 4/16 1/16
Expected frequency = NP (X = r), where n = 320 The required theoretical binomial distribution is as follows:
X=r
NP (X=r) :
20
80
120
80
20
Expand the binomial (q+p). The power n is equal to one less than the number of terms in the expanded binomial. Thus, when n = 2there will be three terms in the binomial. Similarly, when n = 4 there will be five terms. Multiply each term of the expanded binomial by N (the total frequency), in order to obtain the expected frequency in each category.
f(x)= P [X=x] = nCx p^x q^(n-x) f(x+1)= P [X=x+1] = nCx+1p^(x+1)q^(n-x-1) f(x+1)/ f(x) = P(n-x)/q(x+1) f(x+1) = P(n-x)/q(x+1) When x = 0,
f(1)= P(n-0)/ q(0+1) f(0)=pnf(0)/q
When x = 1,
f(2)=p(n-1)/q2 f(1)=(p/q)2n(n-1)f(0)/2! When x=2, F(3)=p(n-1)/q3 f(2)=(p/q)3n(n-1)(n-2)f(0)/3! and so on.
This formula provides us a very convenient method for fitting the binomial distribution. The only probability we need to calculate is f(0) which is equal to q^n, where q can be estimated from the given data.
The binomial distribution is applicable only when sampling is from an infinite statistical population with replacement because in these cases the success probability remains constant from trial to trial. The binomial distributionis very useful in decision making situation in business. One area in which it is very widely applied is quality control. Binomial distributionis is considered an important tool in forecasting of the events based on random sampling.
PART-3
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
A second important discrete probability distribution is the Poisson distribution, named after the French mathematician, Simeon Denis Poisson who published its derivation in 1837. The distribution is used to describe the behavior of rare events such as the number of accidents on road .number of printing mistakes in a book etc, and has been called the law of improbable events.
Theoretically, an infinite number of occurrences of the event must be possible in the interval.
The probability of single occurrence of the event in a given interval is proportional to the length of the interval. In any infinitesimal (extremely small) portion of interval, the probability of two or more occurrences of the event is negligible.
e-m
where
p(r)=
r= 0,1,2,3,4..
Where,
From d above diagram as m increases, the distribution shifts to the right. Thus, all Poisson probability distribution are skewed to the right.
(Ques) The following table gives the number of days in a 50- day period during which automobile accidents occurred in a city. Fit Poisson
: 21
Solution: x
0 1 2 3 4
fx
0 18 14 9 4 fx=45
m = x= x/N=45/50=0.9 = = 0.4066
(0) =
(1) =m (0) = (0.9) (0.4066) = 0.3659 (2) =m/2 (1) = 0.9/2 (0.3659) = 0.1647 (3) =m/3 (2) = 0.9/3 (0.1647) = 0.0494 (4) =m/4 (3) = 0.9/4 (0.0494) =0.0111 In order to fit Poisson distribution, we shall multiply each probability by N, i.e., 50 Hence, the expected frequencies are: X: 0 1 0.365950 =18.30 2 0.164750 =8.24 3 0.049450 =2.47 =0.56 4 F: 0.406650 0.011150 =20.33
PART-4
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
MEANING :-
Normal Distribution is a continuous distribution which is used for determining a suitable mathematical distribution for dealing with quantities whose magnitude is continuously variable. Normal Distribution happens to be most useful theoretical distribution for continuous variables.
The normal distribution is an approximation to binomial Distribution. whether or not p is equal to q, the binomial distribution tends to the form of a continuous curve & when 'n' becomes large at least for the material part of the range The limiting frequency curve obtained as n becomes large is called the normal frequency curve or simply the normal curve.
Where: - x = value of continuous random variable = mean of the normal random variable e = mathematical constant=2.7183 = mathematical constant=3.1416 = standard deviation of normal random variable
here, N/ 2 = max. ordinate (y0) of the normal curve corresponding to distribution of stated total frequency N and stated standard deviation .
REMARKS: 1) The normal distribution can have different shapes depending on different values of and but there is one and only one normal distribution for any given pair of values for and .
2) Normal distribution is a limiting case of binomial distribution when n --> and neither p nor q is very small. 3) Normal distribution is a limiting case of poisson distribution when its mean m is large.
4) The two nails of normal distribution extend indefinitely and never touch the horizontal axis.
USE & IMPORTANCE OF NORMAL DISTRIBUTION Normal distribution is applied for large application in statistical quality control in industry for setting control limits. Even if a variable is not normally distributed, it can sometime be brought to normal form by simple transformation of variable. For example, if distribution of X is skewed, the distribution of x might come out to be normal. As n becomes large, the normal distribution serves as a good approximation for many discrete distribution. The sampling distribution and test of hypothesis are based upon the assumption that samples have been drawn from a normal population with mean and variance 2. It has numerous mathematical properties which make it popula and comparatively easy to manipulate.
Central limit theorem:- according to this theorem, as the sample size n increases, the distribution of x of a random sample taken from practically any population approaches a normal distribution. Thus if samples of large size n are drawn from a population i.e. not normally distributed, never the less the successive samples means will form themselves a distribution. i.e. approximately normal. Thus, it is possible to determine the minimum and maximum limits within which the population values lie. Universal utility. Basis of sampling & interpretation. Mathematical relationship between constants.
ASSUMPTIONS OF NORMAL DISTRIBUTION Independent factors- The forces affecting events must be independent of one another. Numerous factors- The causal forces must be numerous & of equal weight. Symmetry- The operation of the causal forces must be such that positive deviation from the mean balanced as to magnitude & number by negative deviation from the mean. Homogeneity- These forces must be the same over the universe from which the observations are drawn.
FITTING OF A NORMAL CURVE Two main objectives of fitting a normal curve is to sample data:1) To provide a visual device for judging whether or not normal curve is a good fit to a sample data.
2) To use the smoothed normal curve, instead of the irregular curve representing the sample data, to estimate the characteristics of the population. Methods of fitting:
Method of ordinates Method of areas
Fitting of normal distribution In order to fit a normal distribution to the given data, we 1st calculate the mean and standard deviation from the given data. Then the normal curve fitted to the given data is given by; -1/2(x-/ )2 Y= 1/ 2e
-<x<
To calculate the expected normal frequency, we 1st find the standard normal variate corresponding to the lower units of each class interval.
Ques:- fit a normal curve to the following data by method of ordinatesvariable frequency
60 - 62
63 - 65 66 - 68 69 - 71
5
18 42 27
72 - 74
for fitting a normal curve we need the values of variable 60-62 63-65 66-68 69-71 72-74 m 61 64 67 70 73 5 18 42 27 8 f -2 -1 0 +1 +2 d fd -10 -18 0 +27 +16
fd=15
and . f(d2 20 18 0 27 32
fd2 = 97
N=100
= A + fd / N * i = 67 + 15 / 100 * 3 = 67.45 = fd2/N (fd / N)2 * i = 97/100 (15/100)2 * 3 = 0.97 0.0225 * 3 = 0.0973 * 3 =2.92 Mean ordinate = 0.399 * Ni/ =0.399 * 100 * 3/ 2.92 =41 Therefore, the height of the maximum ordinate of the point 67.45 on abscissa will be 41.
STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION It is useful to transform a normally distributed variable in such a form that single tables of areas under the normal curve would be applicable regardless of the unity of the original distribution. Let x be a random variable distributed normally with mean x & standard deviation. Then we define a new random variable z using transformation technique. Formula z = x-x/ & x/ [x=x-x] Where z=new random variable X=value of x X=mean of x =S.D of x Then z is called a standard normal variate & its distribution is called standard normal distribution with mean 0 & standard deviation unity.
PART-5
RELATIONS
Z will follow normal distribution with mean zero and variance one.
m increases infinitely (), Z will follow normal distribution with mean zero and variance one.
Poisson Distribution
Number of traffic arrival such as a ship at a dock, bus at depots, aeroplane at airport. In quality control statics such as no. of defective items. In insurance problems such as number of accidents in factory. Number of calls arrived at a switchboard. The no. of defective electric bulbs manufacture by a reputed company. The no. of cars passing a certain point in one minute. The no. of persons born blind per year in a large city.
Normal Distribution
To check errors in astronomical observations
Conclusion
So far in this presentation topic of probability distribution we have defined a random variable i.e. numerical distribution of the outcome of an experiment and different types of probability distributions like Binomial distribution, Poisson distribution and Normal distribution. By probability distribution we can save our time and effort. Probability distribution helps us in finding the expected value in context to sales and production. A discrete random variable will follow a binomial distribution if it is the number of successes in n independent Bernoulli trials with probability of success constant. Poisson probability distribution is a probability distribution showing the probability of X occurrences of an event over a specified interval of time. Normal distribution is a continuous probability distribution, bell shaped, determined by mean and standard deviation . Normal distribution is used as a model in real life situation both as a continuous distribution and as an approximation to discrete distributions. Normal distribution is used widely in statistical inferences.