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Chapter 1
Statistics
Statistics is a science that involves the extraction of information from numerical data obtained during an experiment or from a sample. It involves the design of the experiment or sampling procedure, the collection and analysis of the data, and making inferences (statements) about the population based upon information in a sample.
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any characteristic of an individual can take different values for different individuals
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Variables
Categorical
(Numerical)
Takes numerical values for which arithmetic operations such as adding and averaging make sense
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Case Study
The Effect of Hypnosis on the Immune System
reported in Science News, Sept. 4, 1993, p. 153
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Case Study
The Effect of Hypnosis on the Immune System Objective: To determine if hypnosis strengthens the disease-fighting capacity of immune cells.
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Case Study
65
college students.
blood cell counts measured all students viewed a brief video about the immune system.
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Case Study
Students
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white
week the two white blood cell counts are compared for each group results
hypnotized group showed larger jump in white blood cells easily hypnotized group showed largest immune enhancement
BPS - 5th Ed.
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Case Study
Variables measured
categorical
Easy
quantitative
or difficult to achieve hypnotic trance Group assignment Pre-study white blood cell count Post-study white blood cell count
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Case Study
Weight Gain Spells Heart Risk for Women
Weight, weight change, and coronary heart disease in women. W.C. Willett, et. al., vol. 273(6), Journal of the American Medical Association, Feb. 8, 1995. (Reported in Science News, Feb. 4, 1995, p. 108)
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Case Study
Weight Gain Spells Heart Risk for Women Objective: To recommend a range of body mass index (a function of weight and height) in terms of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk in women.
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Case Study
Study
started in 1976 with 115,818 women aged 30 to 55 years and without a history of previous CHD. Each womans weight (body mass) was determined. Each woman was asked her weight at age 18.
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Case Study
The
cohort of women were followed for 14 years. The number of CHD (fatal and nonfatal) cases were counted (1292 cases).
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Case Study
Variables measured
quantitative
Age
categorical
(in 1976) Weight in 1976 Weight at age 18 Incidence of coronary heart disease Smoker or nonsmoker Family history of heart disease
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Distribution
Tells
what values a variable takes and how often it takes these values
be a table, graph, or function
Can
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Displaying Distributions
Categorical
variables
variables
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Count
18 10
Percent
41.9% 23.3%
Junior
Senior Total
BPS - 5th Ed.
6
9 43
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14.0%
20.9% 100.1%
18
Sophomore 23.3%
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41.9%
Bar Graph
Sophomore
Junior
Senior
Year in School
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Food scraps
Glass Metals Paper, paperboard Plastics Rubber, leather, textiles Wood Yard trimmings Other Total
25.9
12.8 18.0 86.7 24.7 15.8 12.7 27.7 7.5 231.9
11.2 %
5.5 % 7.8 % 37.4 % 10.7 % 6.8 % 5.5 % 11.9 % 3.2 % 100.0 %
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pattern of graph Deviations from overall pattern Shape of the data Center of the data Spread of the data (Variation) Outliers
BPS - 5th Ed.
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bimodal
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Symmetric Bell-Shaped
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Symmetric Mound-Shaped
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Symmetric Uniform
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Outliers
Extreme
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Histograms
For
quantitative variables that take many values Divide the possible values into class intervals (we will only consider equal widths) Count how many observations fall in each interval (may change to percents) Draw picture representing distribution
BPS - 5th Ed.
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many intervals?
One rule is to calculate the square root of the sample size, and round up.
Size
of intervals?
Divide range of data (maxmin) by number of intervals desired, and round to convenient number
Pick
intervals so each observation can only fall in exactly one interval (no overlap)
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Case Study
Weight Data
Introductory Statistics class Spring, 1997 Virginia Commonwealth University
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Weight Data
192 152 135 110 128 180 260 170 165 150 110 120 185 165 212 119 165 210 186 100 195 170 120 185 175 203 185 123 139 106 180 130 155 220 140 157 150 172 175 133 170 130 101 180 187 148 106 180 127 124 215 125 194
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Number of students
10 8 6 4 2 0 100 Frequency
120
140
160
220 240
260
280
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Stemplots
(Stem-and-Leaf Plots)
For
quantitative variables Separate each observation into a stem (first part of the number) and a leaf (the remaining part of the number) Write the stems in a vertical column; draw a vertical line to the right of the stems Write each leaf in the row to the right of its stem; order leaves if desired
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1 2
Weight Data
110 120 185 165 212 119 165 210 186 100 195 170 120 185 175 203 185 123 139 106 180 130 155 220 140 157 150 172 175 133 170 130 101 180 187 148 106 180 127 124 215 125 194
192 152 135 110 128 180 260 170 165 150
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10 11 12 13 5 14 15 2 16 17 18 19 2 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
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10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
0166 009 0034578 00359 08 00257 555 000255 000055567 245 3 025 0
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Leaves 0-4 would go on each upper stem (first 15), and leaves 5-9 would go on each lower stem (second 15).
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Time Plots
Time is always on the horizontal axis, and the variable being measured is on the vertical axis.
Look for an overall pattern (trend), and deviations from this trend. Connecting the data points by lines may emphasize this trend. Look for patterns that repeat at known regular intervals (seasonal variations).
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50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
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