Key Steps in Mkt & DD Analysis

Step 1 : Collection Of secondary information Step 2 : Evaluation of secondary Information Step 3 : Conduct of Market survey Step4: Characterization of mkt Step5 : DD forecasting Step 5 : Mkt Planning

Collection of Secondary Information

Secondary information provides the base and starting point for the mkt & dd analysis. It indicates what is known and often provides leads and cues for gathering primary information required for further analysis. General Sources of secondary information: 1. Census of India 2. National Sample survey Reports 3. Plan reports 4. Statistical abstracts of Indian union 5. India Year book 6. Statistical year book 7. Economic survey 8. Guidelines to industries 9. Annual survey reports 10. Reports from RBI 11. Publications & Advertising 12. Stock exchange Directory

Evaluation of Secondary Inf.

While secondary Information is readily available but its reliablility , accuracy, and relevance for the purpose under consideration must be carefully examined . The market analyst should seek to knw: Who gathered the infor ? What was the objective? When was the information gathered? When was it published? How representative was the period for which the information was gathered? Hav terms of study been carefully and unambigously defines What was the target population? How was the sample chosen & so on

Conduct Market survey

Secondary information though useful often does not provide a comprehensive basis for market & dd analysis. It needs to be supplemented by primary information gathered through market survey , specific to the project appraised. Mkt survey can be Census or Sample survey Information sought in a market survey may relate to the following: > Total DD & rate of growth of DD > Demand in different segments of the market > Income and price elasticities of dd > Motives of buying > Purchasing Power , plans & intentions > Unsatisfied Needs > Socio economic characteristics of buyers

Steps In a sample survey

Define the target population Select the sampling Scheme and sample sizwe Develop a Questionnaire Recruit & train the field Investigators Obtain information as per the questionnaire from the sample respondents Scrutinize the information gathered Analyse & Interpret the information Problems Heterogeneity of the country Multiplicity of languages Design of Questionnnaire

Characterization of the market

Based on information gathered from secondary sources and through the market survey the market for the product /service may be described in terms of the following:

1.

Effective DD in past & present - To calculate the effective dd;

Consumption = Production + Imports Exports changes in the stock level The actual consumption has to be adjusted for consumptionof product by the producers and the effect of abnormal factors . Consp series may be obtained for several yrs.

2. Breakdown of DD: Market segments may be broken down into nature of product, consumer groups & geographical division.
3. Price : It may be helpful to distinguish , manufactures prices quoted on FOB or CIF , landed price for imported goods , avg wholesale price , avg retails price. 4. Methods of distribution and sales promotion 5. Consumers 6. Supply & competition 7. Government policy

Methods of Demand Forecasting

I.

Qualitative Methods

These Methods rely on judgment of experts to translate qualitative information into qualitative estimates . The important methods are * Delphi Method * Jury of executive method II. Time series Projection Methods These methods generate forecast on the basis of an analysis of historical time series . The important time series projection methods are : * Trend projection method * Exponential smoothing method * Moving Average method III. Casual Methods more analytical than previous methods

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