OPERATIONS ANALYSIS DIVISION

Colonel Joseph Smith Director

USMC Operations Analysis Division

MISSION
1. Provides oversight for the Marine Corps on all matters pertaining to studies and operations analysis 2. Assists the Operational Marine Forces and other Marine Corps agencies with operations analysis support 3. Conducts a continuing program of studies and analyses to assist the Marine Corps in making combat development, programmatic (Joint, Naval, and Marine Corps), and warfighting decisions
USMC Operations Analysis Division

CMC
CG, MCCDC - CG, MCINCR DC, CD&I COMMARFORSTRAT CE ADVOCATE

BGen Hanifen
DCG, MCCDC

Col Zotti
Strategic Vision Group

SgtMaj Futrell
Sergeant Major

Col Dallachie
CO, MCB Dep CG, MCINCR

Dr. Akst (SES)

Senior Analyst

Col Jolley
CoS MARFORSTRAT Omaha, NE

Col Padilla
Chief of Staff

Col Kelly
Ctr for Irregular Warfare

Col Smith, P.
G3/G5

BGen Spiese
CG Training and Education Command

BGen Murray
CG, MCWL VCNR/EA S&T

BGen ODonnell
Capabilities Development Directorate

BGen Miller
Joint and External Matters, Pentagon

Col Smith
Operations Analysis Division

Mr. Bearor (SES)

Deputy Director

Col Regner
Chief of Staff

Col Clubb
Chief of Staff

Mr. Lasswell
Dir, S&T Plans

Col Atkinson
Deputy Director

LtCol Rush
CoS Matters

Dr. Bailey
Deputy

MGen (Ret) Gardner

ED COM

BGen Salinas
MCRD, SD

Col Bohn
Technology

Col Nalepa
Operations

Col Martynenko
Force Protection

Mr. Herrmann
Total Force Structure

Mr. Doetzer
Director JROC/JCIDS

Maj Towle
Support Branch

Ms. Lager
Business Center

BGen Gurganus
MAGTFTC

BGen Laster
MCRD, PI

Mr. Goulding
Experimentation

Mr. Lowe
CETO

Col Danko
Logistics

Col Yeager
CMD & CONT

Mr. Evans
Analysis Branch

VACANT
Joint & External Analysis Branch

Mr. Dallas
CAOCL

Col Macmannis
TRNGCMD

Dr. Lademan
Wargaming

Mr. McTague
JCDE Suffolk

Col Crane
Intelligence

Col Smith, E.
Fires & Maneuver

Mr. Sawyers
Mission Area Analysis Branch

Mr. Hoffman
Current Ops Support Branch

Col Starnes
MSTP

Col Dunard
MCCLL

Mr. Blasiol
MAGTF Integration

Mr. Strock
Seabasing

External Billets Col Harlan

Dir, Marine Operations Peace Keeping and Stability Operations Institute (PKSOI) Carlisle Barracks

Col Triplett
Security Cooperation Education Training Center

Vacant

USMC Operations Analysis Division

Marine Representative US Army/USMC Counter Insurgency Center (COIN) Ft. Leavenworth

OAD ORGANIZATION
Operation Analysis Division Col Joseph Smith Deputy Dr. Michael Bailey

Current Operations Analysis Support Branch Mr. Doug Hoffman

Support Branch Mr. Dave Shubatt

Joint and External Analysis Branch Vacant

Mission Area Analysis Branch Mr. Al Sawyers

Analysis Branch Mr. James Evans

Business Center Ms. Carol Lager

14 Military Officers - 40 Civilians

USMC Operations Analysis Division

Tasking Breakdown
Marine Corps Studies System
Quarterly call for studies Marine Corps wide Executed with in-house (civ and military) and contract analysts

MCCDC and HQMC Quick-turn

Communicated to us through CoS Anticipated requirements from CDD and others

Joint
Driven by participation in OSD Analytic Agenda Often coordinated with MCCDC Senior Analyst
USMC Operations Analysis Division

Areas of Constant Focus

1.

2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
8. 9.

Sea Basing, Amphibious Lift, High-speed Connectors and Shipping, Strategic Mobility USMC Role in Joint Theater-level Warfare Ground Mobility Capability Sets ISR Capability Analysis, especially UASs Fires Capability Analysis Air and Surface Assault Capability Analysis Infantry-centric Operations (equipment, C2, training, MOUT, SASO, required special skills) USMCs Structure relative to its Commitments Enhanced Company Operations (new Concepts of Ops)
USMC Operations Analysis Division

Marine Corps Irregular Warfare Study

Background
The Joint community has called for analyses in irregular warfare but all current analysis efforts are still in their infancy. IW JOC definition is beginning to take hold throughout DoD Sponsor is MCCDC Senior Analyst Lead Analyst: LT Robin Marling

Question
What is a good methodology for analyzing Marine Corps irregular warfare problems in-house? Caveat: Use a real world scenario with real-world data.

Status
Unclass Colombia scenario created and data collectedarticle in upcoming Phalanx Population Dynamics Model delivered in Dec 2007. Progress in instantiating Colombia scenario into Pythagoras (ABM). Columbia effort closing in May 08. Follow-on effort supporting OSDs Africa Analytic Baseline
USMC Operations Analysis Division

Live Tissue Training

Background
OEF has dramatically increased the demand for Live Tissue Training for FMF corpsmen. Current training is contracted ($2400 per student) using GWOT funding. Course believed to be essential to properly train corpsmen for combat casualty response. Sponsor: TECOM Lead Analyst: LT Robin Marling

Question(s)
Assess whether it would be more cost effective to create an organic Live Tissue Training Capability, a partial capability or to continue contracting LTT.

Status
Study Plan approved Contract for additional Cost Analyst support in progress Site visits to Fort Bragg (BCT3 course), Fort Sam Houston (TCMC course), Fort Bragg (Spec Ops 18D course) Interest and response from medical community is high Completion anticipated JUL 08 USMC Operations Analysis Division

COMPLETE

MAGTF (MEF/USMC) Fires Study

Background
Original sponsor was FMID for quick turn-around for adequacy of MEF/USMC Fire Support. 34th CMC emphasized study and added requirement of applicability to full spectrum of conflict. Focus on organic MEF with augmentation by NSFS. Lead Analyst: Maj Chris Michel, USMC

Question(s)
Are current and programmed fire support capabilities sufficient to meet USMC operational requirements? i.e. are there any Joint warfighting gaps that affect the USMC? What assets/methods can fill identified gaps?

Findings
MEF Major Combat Operations Scenario: Fire support gaps exist In Adverse Weather especially Findings of MEF Phase of Fires study are in against Mobile and Armor Targets agreement with Joint Fires ICD -- Gaps in: Adv Against Targets in Restrictive Areas Wx/Mobile Tgts, Restr Terrain, Volume Fires Against Area Targets

The Fires Triad

AIR

Wtx and ROE gaps are more pronounced in 2014 than in 2024 Identified gaps can only be closed by augmentation outside the MEF

GROUND

SEA
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USMC Operations Analysis Division Review of data from OIF for Irregular Warfare applicability [On-going]

FOLLOW-ON EFFORT

UAS Tier II & Tier III Sensor Suite Study

Background Question(s)
What are the trade space options for payloads? What are the sensor package requirements in MAGTF operations? What are the MAGTFs SIGINT, ESM/EA requirements? What future UAS sensor technologies exist to support MAGTF operations?

MAGTF ISR Gap Analysis and Overarching UAS Study highlighted the need to further analyze required UAS payload capabilities The objective of the study is to assess feasibility and projected capabilities of developing UAS payload technologies. Study performer: CNA OAD Study Lead: Max Hipsher

Status
Study started June 07

Data collection underway Interim report delivered Sep 07 Additional data being collected Completion May 08

Sponsors: Intel HQMC DC, Aviation DC, CD&I (FMID)

USMC Operations Analysis Division

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Completed

JLTV Effect on STOM

Background Question(s)
Purpose: What is the impact of fielding the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV) in place of HMMWVs? Examine effect of JLTV loads & weights Explore impact of JLTV fielding on Aviation POR Sponsor: FMID, MCCDC
Vertical Assault @ 110 NM
12 11 10 9 8
7.4 6.7 6.8 6.8 9.2 9.2 8.9 11.4

JLTV is armored tactical vehicle intended to replace HMMWVs Examined lifting at Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW @ 18,000 lbs), Essential Combat Capable Weight (ECCW @ 13,750 lbs), and Curb Weight (CW @ 12,500 lbs) JLTV cannot be lifted by MV-22 even at Curb Weight

Findings
Status: Study Complete Take Aways:
Recommend lifting JLTV at ECCW CH-53K can only lift one JLTV at GVW, which substantially increases time to complete the assault Increasing quantity of CH-53Ks can offset impact of conducting STOM with an armored force
Hours

Mix MV-22/CH-53K

7 6 5 4 3 2 1

48/20 36/24 30/30

4.8

5.0 4.3

5.0

0 JLTV weight:

No JLTV (M1114 Armored HMMWVs)

All GVW

All ECCW

Mix (34 ECCW, 55 GVW)

15 deg C, w/out DS CSS Co or LAAD

More loads becoming liftable only Increasing quantity of CH-53Ks USMC Operations Analysis Division by CH-53K during the assault minimizes the impact of JLTV

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NEW START

Force Mobility Analysis Support Tool (FMAST)

OBJECTIVE
To create an analytical capability with which to generate and evaluate Marine Corps tactical wheeled vehicle strategies and plans by creating a model that is: Agile easily updated using dynamic (frequently updated) data sources that are readily available (institutional databases) and accommodating large numbers of mobility profiles Authoritative based on a validated methodology and authoritative data sources Broadly applicable Addressing perennial strategic issues such as capability measures, force structure, equipment inventory, and cost.

STUDY QUESTIONS
What capability does a given ground mobility strategy provide?
Tactical Mobility portion of infantry that:
Ride organic (JLTV, HMMWV, ITV, MRAP, MTVR, other) Ride general support (EFV, MPC, MTVR, other) Fly by Helo Walk/2nd wave

Strategic Mobility aggregate footprint (square, cube, weight) relative to available strategic lift Force Protection Levels Operational scenarios for MAGTFs force size, timeline, lift reqt Time-phased AAOs Time-phased inventory profiles Fleet age/readiness Lifecycle Costs

What is the impact on Acquisition strategy/Portfolio Management?

SCOPE
All the Marine Corps tactical wheeled vehicles, legacy and new. The entire Marine Corps Tables of Organization (TOs).
Breadth:
Headquarters Marine Corps Supporting Establishment Operating forces Reserves Marine Prepositioning Force Company/UIC level

Depth:

In the context of joint warfighting scenarios

MEF in Major Combat Operations (MCO) MEF in Irregular Warfare (IW) - Stability Operations USMC Operations Analysis Division MEB in Joint Forcible Entry Operations (JFEO)

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Questions ?

USMC Operations Analysis Division

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