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Well-positioned for Growth in the Touch-Functionality Markets & Current Entry Point provides Great Value Recommendation: Buy
Ticker
Price Market Cap Beta
ATML
$ 10.44 $ 4.67B 1.44
LTM Revenue
ROE
$ 1.80B
29.50%
Co-Engineering Partner for Microsoft Windows 8 OS, which supports Touch functionality.
Cheap to produce, consumes less power; power consumption while sleeping are in nanowatts Offer enhanced programming capabilities compared to traditional microprocessors
Retains functionality while waiting for an event such as a button press or other interrupt; making many of them well suited for long lasting battery applications.
During Q3, Atmel acquired Advanced Digital Design, also known as ADD Semiconductor, a privately held company based in Spain that develops power line communication solutions.
Share price fell significantly in 3Q 2011, as management attributed flat revenue to major customers (Dell and Samsung) being unable to compete in tablets sales with Apples iPad.
Investment Thesis
Market Over-reaction: Despite weaker revenue and the one-time item, gross margin is still 48%, inline with prior guidance. Microcontroller business expected to pick up in 2H2012
ATML remains one of the more efficient and least cost producers, with partnerships with the Windows 8, and access to 3G expansions in the Chinese market.
Top 5 Shareholders
Complete List
Largest Shareholders
Investor Name T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. Janus Capital Management LLC BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. RS Investments Vanguard Group, Inc. % Shares Outstanding Current Position 14.91 68,959,690 Value ($MM) 558.57
9.85
45,578,797
369.19
4.44
20,519,820
166.21
4.40 4.18
20,370,742 19,352,222
165.00 156.75
Tsung-Ching Wu
Walter Lifsey
653,245
Several positive near-term catalysts could move shares higher Conclusion of transition to single chip for tablets - According to management, the transition to single-chip solutions for tablets largely wrapped up in Q4, meaning a major source of revenue weakness was removed in the current quarter. We also believe inventory digestion at key touch customers is now mostly behind the company. When combined with the ramp of new customer designs, touch growth appears primed to resume. Looming announcements around Mobile World Congress - While Atmel typically announces new wins during earnings (and speaks to tear-downs), Mobile World Congress (starts Feb 27) should bring additional announcements from smartphone and tablet customers, generating buzz around Atmel's touch leadership. Win8 launch H2/C2012 - Discussions with industry players at CES indicate Win8 coul be shipping by Q3, potentially in time for back-to-school. While specific timing remains uncertain absent an official announcement from Microsoft, we believe H2 ramp is likely, and we expect Atmel to garner substantial share (should be at least as high as for smartphone, ex-Apple, or above 30%). Many ultrabook designs will require multicontroller solutions, helping to support ASPs, and tablets running Win8 could see better sell-through than Android versions due to their perceived utility. Stylus support is also important, given Atmel's maXStylus appears to offer the highest performance. Direct Touch doesn't eliminate need for maXTouch - Based on conversations with
Industry
Microcontrollers
Very competitive industry with lots of players Compete on mainly price and performance Short life cycles requiring constant innovation and R&D Prices of products tend to go down as time on market increases Higher margins on custom builds and higher performance microcontrollers
Atmels maxTouch contributed $140 million in 2010 Global Microcontrollers Market 2009-2013 report by Technavio Insights forecasts the Microcontrollers market to grow at a CAGR of 6.5 percent
In PCWorlds latest list of the top 10 best smartphones published March 29, 2011, Atmel is powering the touch screen capabilities in eight of them
Future:
Global mobile data traffic will increase 18-fold between 2011 and 2016 (78% CAGR) 4G connections represent only 0.2 percent of mobile connections today
Military
Principal customers include BAE Systems, EADS, Honeywell, Litton, LockheedMartin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Roche and Thales. Avionics and aerospace ASICs conform to stricter standards and high-performance
Automotive
Body electronics for passenger comfort and convenience Air-bad drivers Anti-lock brake control Tire pressure monitors Keyless entry transmitters Touch interfaces and receivers for in-vehicle entertainment components Systems and controls in engine Sales of 10.4 million units in 2009, 12.7 million 2010, 14 million est. 2012 in US Expanding hybrid and electric vehicles means more microcontrollers
Competitive Market
Competitors
Comparables methodology
Similar market cap Similar product segments as ATML
Microcontrollers constitute majority of revenue Revenue driven by touchscreen technology
Risks:
Diversified operations exposes comps to other influential factors Performance of comps might be driven by growth in products not manufactured by ATML
Recently acquired a touchscreen controller company to expand into the touch industry Made an unsuccessful attempt to acquire ATML in Oct 2009
Increase in revenue in C&C driven by higher demand in touchscreen applications Has a Data and Communications division
Manufactures controllers, switches, cable drivers for networking/telecom market
ST Microelectronics (STM)
Manufactures analog, mixed signal and application specific products (ASIC) Main product segments:
RF and Automotive (40.3%) IMS including microcontrollers and nonvolatile memory products (37.6%)
Very diversified
Also present in home entertainment, displays and imaging division
Comps
Include? Yes
EV/Revenue (2012E)
EV/Revenue (2013E)
EV/EBITDA (2012E) EV/EBITDA (2013E) P/E (2012E) P/E (2013E) P/B $ $
$1,860.00
$0.00 $0.00 0.42 0.66 $1,191.00
2.4x
0.0x 0.0x 16.1x 10.4x 0.8x
4.4x
0.0x 0.0x 24.8x 17.5x 6.7x
$10.37
$0.77 $0.77 $6.78 $6.89 $2.16
$18.33
$0.77 $0.77 $10.43 $11.55 $17.36
Yes
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Value Range:
Suggested Premium:
$4.32
-57.8%
- $10.74
5.0%
Risks
ATML operates in a highly competitive environment, competing with others primarily on price and technology Heavy Reliance on distributors (55% of Net Revenue), and the success of its Customers end products Slow Growth in End Markets and if a weak 1H2012 extends Decline in Gross Margins, Heavy Competition (E.g. SYNA) However, these are not idiosyncratic risks to ATML, but risks that apply to the whole industry.
Thank You
Well-positioned for Growth in the TouchFunctionality Markets & Current Entry Point provides Great Value
Questions?
Appendix
http://www.isuppli.com/Semiconductor-Value-Chain/News/Pages/Texas-Instruments-Reigns-Supreme-in-Industrial-ElectronicsSemiconductor-Market.aspx