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Why Mexico Matters

4 Simple Reasons to Care About Happens South of the Border

Why Were So Afraid of Mexico

Mexico Sounds Like A Pretty Scary Place


In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico U.S. Joint Forces Command 2008 Report

Forecasts of State Failure


2008 U.S. Joint Forces Command Report Places Mexico Alongside Pakistan

How Bad Is Mexicos Security Situation?


Drug trafficking Organizationsare morphing into or making common cause with what we would consider an insurgency. Mexico is looking more and more like Colombia looked 20 years ago. CFR, 9.9.10

Fears of Insurgency
data show homicides per 100,000 inhabitants circa 2007-2008

Is Mexico A Failed State?

USA: 34.8

Mexico: 75.1

Somalia: 113.4 Chad: 113.4

Sudan: 108.7 SOURCE: FUND FOR PEACE (CONFLICT ASSESMENT SYSTEM T

FSI Ranks Mexico 94th of 177 Countries in 2011


SCALE OF 1-120 USING 12 SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY INDICATORS

Is Mexico Having An Insurgency?

The Mexican Revolution (1519-1521) The Chiapas Uprising (1994-present) The Wars for Conquest (1910-1921) Spanish Independence (1810-1821)

Mexico Has Had Some Notable Violent Uprisings

By MiMundo.org James Rodrguez

But Organized Crime Groups Are Fighting Each Other, Not Directly Targeting the State

Mexicos Drug Violence


Projected 18,000
Drug-related homicides 16,000 14,000 12,000

Official Increase of 1,527 Killings for 2011 (Approximately 7%)

10,000
8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 CNDH Reforma PGR

Official Tally: 16,414 Killings (Jan-Sept 2011)


SINCE 2007 TBI HAS MONITORED DRUG RELATED KILLINGS USING VARIOUS SOURCES

90 80 70 60 50 40 30

Contextualizing Homicide Rates in Mexico

Honduras: 82.1 Homicides Per 100K in 2010 El Salvador: 66 Homicides Per 100K in 2009 Venezuela: 49 Homicides Per 100K in 2009 Guatemala & Belize: 41+ Homicides Per 100K in 2010 Mexico: 18.1 Homicides Per 100K in 2010

20
10 0

USA: 5 Homicides Per 100K in 2009

Mexicos Murder Rate: Average for the Americas


http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/homicide.html

UNODC Data From 2010 Place Mexico 19th in the Americas & 41st World Wide

Honduras El Salvador Venezuela Belize Guatemala Trinidad-Tob. Colombia Bahamas Puerto Rico Saint Lucia Dominican Rep. Brazil Dominica St. Vincent Panama Eq. Guinea Ecuador Mexico French Guiana Suriname Nicaragua Cayman Islands Paraguay Costa Rica Bolivia Bermuda Guadeloupe Haiti Antigua-Barb. Uruguay Argentina Peru USA Cuba Martinique Chile Canada

4 Reasons to Care About What Happens in Mexico

Places

Why Mexico Matters: Places


Mexico is the primary destination and country of residence for U.S. citizens abroad

MEXICO: 32 States 89 Cities Over 200K 2,438 Municipalities 112,336,538 People #1 U.S. Travel Destination 1 Million Ex-Pats 20 Million Tourists

Why Mexico Matters: Places


Mexico has rich geographical, climate, and resource diversity

The Original Land of Enchantmen

http://mexicotoday.org/article/copper-canyons-beautiful-landscapesmexico

Why Mexico Matters: Places


Mexico has rich geographical, climate, and resource diversity

A Place of Exotic Wonder

http://www.sipse.com/imagenes/15102010/15102010154615583.jp

Why Mexico Matters: Places


Mexico has rich geographical, climate, and resource diversity

The Cradle of North American Civilization

Why Mexico Matters: Places


Mexico has rich geographical, climate, and resource diversity

A Diverse Land with a Proud History

Why Mexico Matters: Places


Mexico has rich geographical, climate, and resource diversity

Products

Over $460 billion in U.S.-Mexico Trade in 2011

Mexico is our #2 destination for exports, and #3 source of imports

Why Mexico Matters: Products


Mexico is the worlds 13th largest economy and a top U.S. trading partner

2500

U.S. Imports of Crude Oil By Country (By 1000s of Barrels Per Day)

2000 1500
1000 500 0

Why Mexico Matters: Products


Mexico is worlds 7th largest oil producer and the third largest source for the United States

Pesos

Home to worlds richest man [Over $540 million in Mexican investments in the United States in 2009]

Why Mexico Matters: Pesos


Mexico is home to the worlds richest man and a major source of investment in the United States

Why Mexico Matters: Pesos


Products we consume every day are Mexican owned

People

Mexicos Past

A Diverse People with a Proud History

Why Mexico Matters: People


Mexico was home to the most advanced native civilizations in North America

Mexicos Presen

Why Mexico Matters: People


Mexico today is home to rich, colorful, and diverse cultures

Our Present

Why Mexico Matters: People


Mexico is the primary source country for both legal and undocumented immigrants

Our Future

Why Mexico Matters: People


Largest growing heritage group in the United States

David A. Shirk dshirk@sandiego.edu www.sandiego.edu/tbi