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Climate Change and its causes in Central Asia 3E concept development of sustainable
Energy use, the Environment and Economic Output interactions in Central Asian republics Concept of energy externalities. Energy cost with externalities:
Climate change and global warming refer to an increase in average global temperatures Natural events and human activities contribute to that increase. Primarily by increase in greenhouse gases (mainly, Carbon Dioxide CO2) A warming planet leads to a change in climate in various ways Annually, more than 60% of global industrial CO2 emissions originate in industrialized countries, where only about 20% of the worlds population lives
The Earth receives energy from the sun, then radiates much of this energy back toward space. However, certain gases in the atmosphere, called greenhouse gases, absorb some of the outgoing energy and trap it This "greenhouse effect" occurs naturally, but human activities have substantially increased the amount of greenhouse gases
Source:EPA, 2011
In the 1880-1935 period, the temperature anomaly was consistently negative Since 1980 the anomaly has been positive
Source:GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, accessed January 30, 2011
and economic development are strongly affected each other Balancing these priorities is critical to achieve a sustainable development Task: Secure the energy supply for economic development without negative impact on the environment
E c o n o m i e s o f C
for modeling and analyzing relationship between a dependent variable (CO2 emissions) and independent variables (Energy use, GDP) The empirical results of regression analysis will be the long-term relationship of the variables The results are interpreted growth terms in percentage in
3E Analysis results
KAZAKHSTAN: Energy use has greater impact on GHG emissions than economic output 1% increase in energy use increases GHG emissions by 1.2% when GDP does not change Energy conservation policies can reduce emissions without negative impact on economic development of Kazakhstan
3E Analysis results
KYRGYZSTAN: Energy use has greater impact on CO2 emissions than economic output 1% increase in energy use increases CO2 emissions by 1.24% when GDP does not change Energy conservation policies can reduce emissions without negative impact on economic development of Kyrgyzstan
3E Analysis results
TAJIKISTAN: Energy use has greater impact on CO2 emissions than economic output 1% increase in energy use increases CO2 emissions by 1.85% when GDP does not change Energy conservation policies can reduce emissions without negative impact on economic development of Tajikistan
3E Analysis results
TURKMENISTAN: Energy use has slightly bigger impact on CO2 emissions than economic output 1% increase in energy use increases CO2 emissions by 0.8% when GDP does not change 1% growth in GDP increases CO2 emissions by 0.32% when energy use does not change In-depth analysis required to fully understand the nature of the
3E Analysis results
UZBEKISTAN: Energy use has greater impact on CO2 emissions than economic output 1% increase in energy use increases CO2 emissions by 1.01% when GDP does not change Energy conservation policies can reduce emissions without negative impact on economic development of Uzbekistan
Energy externalities
The strategy tries to rebalance the social and environmental dimension with the purely economic one, accordingly leading to greater environmental sustainability To support this internalization, socioenvironmental damages must first be estimated and monetized There has been much progress in the analysis of environmental damage costs, particularly through the "ExternE" (External costs of Energy) European Research Network Historically, these damages caused by energy system are not included into the final cost of energy in Central Asia
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Conclusions
Central Asia is affected by climate change Energy policies addressing energy conservation should not have effect on economic growth (apart from Turkmenistan?) Policies promoting renewable energy technologies are necessary Internalization of externalities provides the real cost of renewable energy Country-specific or region-specific