Basic Statistics

Basic Statistics WHY DO WE NEED BASIC STATISTICS?

Serves as a means to analyze data collected in the measurement phase. Allows us to numerically describe the data which characterizes our process KPIVs & KPOVs. Uses past process and performance data to make inferences about the future. Serves as a foundation for advanced statistical problem solving methodologies. Provides a language based on numerical facts and not intuition.

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Basic Statistics DATA CHARACTERISTICS

The primary objective of statistical analysis is to determine certain characteristics of a group from a representative sample. To be valid, this generalization must consider certain important concepts.

The Random Sample:

A random sample is a subgroup of elements gathered so that the results of statistical analysis can be extended to the population from which it came. One frequently applied sampling method is to choose the elements at random. However, this assumes that each element of the population has an equal chance of being selected.

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Basic Statistics DATA CHARACTERISTICS

Variable Data:
Variable data can be expressed in the form of numbers and measured with a measuring instrument. Since they supply a lot of information and are sensitive to small variations, variable data are widely used.

Examples of variable data The diameter of the holes in a part. The thickness of an aluminum plate. The time taken by a machine tool to perform an operation. Room temperature variations. Light intensity variations.

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Basic Statistics DATA CHARACTERISTICS

Attribute Data:
Attribute data are based on the number of conforming or nonconforming characteristics, but not on their measurement. For example, the attribute data indicate whether a part is good or not, or how many parts conform to the specifications. Attribute data are determined with an instrument like a go/no-go gauge (passes the test or not; yes or no; conforming or nonconforming, etc. ). Examples of attribute data Number of parts whose dimensions do not conform to the tolerances.
Number of stored parts. Assessment of the quality of a surface coating ( a lot, moderate, or little orange peel). Number of errors on purchase orders. Number of packing slips with the wrong address.

The type of data, variable or attribute, will determine the statistical tools to use in processing the data.

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Basic Statistics PROCESS VARIATION

Nominal LS US LS Nominal US

Accurate but Imprecise Process

Inaccurate but Precise Process

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Basic Statistics PROCESS VARIATION

Nominal LS US LS Nominal US

Accurate & Precise Process

Inaccurate & Imprecise Process

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Basic Statistics PROCESS CENTERING

LS US

The dispersion is within the tolerance. The distribution is well centered between the limits. The risk of defect is minimal.

LS

US

The dispersion is within the tolerance. The distribution is off-center. Production of defects is likely.

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Basic Statistics PROCESS VARIATION

LS US

The dispersion is less than the tolerance. The distribution is very off-center and exceeds the upper tolerance. Production of defects has occurred.

LS

US

The dispersion is equal to the tolerance. The distribution is centered. The risk of defects is high.

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Basic Statistics PROCESS VARIATION

LS US

The dispersion is greater than the tolerance. The distribution is also off-center. Production of defects has occurred.

LS

US

The dispersion is greater than the tolerance. The distribution is centered. Production of defects has occurred.

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Basic Statistics PROCESS VARIATION

LS US The distribution is bimodal (two peaks). Both dispersions are within the tolerance. Indicates that the data comes from two distinct populations ( two machines, two shifts, two suppliers, etc.)

LS

US The dispersion is within the tolerance. The distribution is asymmetrical (shifted towards one limit). There is a possibility that the data are distorted or inaccurate. However, certain processes are naturally asymmetrical.

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Basic Statistics POPULATION vs. SAMPLE

Population:
- The entire group of objects that have been made or will be made containing the characteristic of interest. - Highly unlikely we can ever obtain population parameters. all NN-made bearing balls. all Millionaires in the world Population Parameters

Sample:
- The group of objects on which one actually gathers data in a statistical study. - Usually a sample is a subset of the population. NN-made balls produced today. Millionaires at NN.

Sample Parameters

= Population Mean = Population Standard

Deviation

X S

= Sample Mean = Sample Standard Deviation

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Basic Statistics MEASUREMENTS OF CENTRAL TENDENCY

Mean:
-The arithmetic average of a set of values. uses the quantitative value of each data point. strongly influenced by extreme values.

i =1

n
12 14 17 18 19 22 27 27 28

Median:
- Number reflecting the 50% rank of a set of values. can be easily identified as the center after all of the values are sorted from high to low. hardly affected by extreme values.

Mode:
- Most frequently occurring value in a data set.

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Basic Statistics MEASUREMENTS OF VARIABILITY

Range:
- Numerical distance between the highest and the lowest values in a data set. very sensitive to extreme values in the data. 2 2

Range = min max

Variance

- Sum of the distances between individual data points and population or sample mean. Distances are squared to remove negative. very sensitive to extreme values in the data.

( ; s ) :

s2 =

(
i =1
n

) 2

n 1

Standard Deviation (

- The square root of the variance. most commonly used measurement to quantify variability.
2 2

; s) :

s=

( i ) 2
i =1

Adding Variances

( 1 + 2 ):
2 2

n 1
2 2

1 = Variance of sample 1

Then 2 = Variance of sample 2

= +
2 2 1
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2 2

= ( 1 + 2)

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Basic Statistics NORMAL CURVE PROPERTIES

Rules:
= 68.25% of the data will fall within +/- 1 s from the mean = 95.46% of the data will fall within +/- 2 s from the mean = 99.73% of the data will fall within +/- 3 s from the mean = 99.9937% of the data will fall within +/- 4 s from the mean = 99.999943% of the data will fall within +/- 5 s from the mean = 99.9999998% of the data will fall within +/- 6 s from the mean

68.3% 95.5% 99.73%

-4

-3

-2

-1

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Basic Statistics THE DYNAMIC PROCESS

LSL USL

Short-Term Capability

Long-Term Capability

Over time, a process tends to shift by approximately 1.5 .

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Basic Statistics LONG-TERM vs. SHORT-TERM VARIATION

If a manufacturing process is represented by:

Y = f(X 1 , X 2 , X 3 ,..., X k )
The variation of Y is driven by the variation of the Xs. The nature of the variation of each x can differ from the others. Some Xs vary over short cycles, others over long cycles.

Thus, a process generally exhibits different variation patterns over the long term than it does over the short term.

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Basic Statistics LONG-TERM vs. SHORT-TERM VARIATION

Long Term Capability
Covers a relatively long period of time (e.g. weeks, months) Will include effect of long term noise variables . Generally consists of 100-200 points.

Short Term Capability

Covers a relatively short period of time (e.g. days, weeks). Will include effect of short term noise variables. Generally consists of 30 to 50 data points.

Instantaneous Capability
Covers a very short period of time (e.g. one shift) Minimal effects due to noise variables.

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Basic Statistics PROCESS CAPABILITY RATIO - Cp

Cp =

(Max Allowable Range of Characteristic) (Normal Variation of the Process)

OR

Cp =

USL - LSL

99.7% of values.

-3

+3

Process Width LSL Tolerance USL

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Basic Statistics PROCESS CAPABILITY RATIO - Cpk

This index accounts for the static mean shift in the process (the amount that the process is off target).

USL - X Cpk= Min 3 or

X - LSL 3

Both the Cp and Cpk indexes should be considered if upper and lower specifications exist. Why?

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Basic Statistics 3 SIGMA PROCESS

No Mean Shift
Lower Spec Cp = 1.02 Cpk = 1.02 Upper Spec

Mean Shift of 1.5 Sigma

Lower Spec
3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5

Upper Spec

Cp = 1.00 Cpk = 0.52

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

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Basic Statistics 6 SIGMA PROCESS

Lower Spec Cp = 2.04 Cpk = 2.04

No Mean Shift

Upper Spec

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Lower Spec

Mean Shift of 1.5 Sigma

Cp = 2.01 Cpk = 1.52

Upper Spec

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

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Basic Statistics
Relation Cp, Cpk and PPM (Parts Per Million)

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Basic Statistics KNOWING OUR PROCESS CAPABILITY CAN.

Predict the percent of time that the process will fail to operate as required. - defects, downgrades or rework Set the performance baseline from which to measure any improvements made. Establish a benchmark against which we can compare other equipment, other plants, etc.

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