Beruflich Dokumente
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Prepared by: Clinton P. MacDonald and Charley A. Knoderer Sonoma Technology, Inc. Petaluma, CA
The 2005 National Air Quality Conference Forecasting Short Course San Francisco, CA February 13, 2005
Goal
To explain how to interpret basic weather information to forecast air quality using
Soundings Weather charts
Soundings
Observed: Typically measured using instrument called a rawinsonde
Instruments carried by a balloon up through the atmosphere, equipped with sensors to measure meteorological variables (pressure, temperature, relative humidity, wind, etc.), and provided with a radio transmitter for sending this information to the observing station Launched at 0000 and 1200 UTC
6 AM
Height
9 AM
Cool
Warm Warming
Temperature
Temperature
Temperature
12 NOON
Height Height
3 PM
Height
Sunset
Warming
Maximum
Cooling
Temperature
Temperature
Temperature
Lapse Rates
Adiabatic Lapse Rate: The rate at which an unsaturated air parcel cools as it rises. It is minus 9.8C per km. Moist Adiabatic Lapse Rate: The rate at which a saturated air parcel cools as it rises.
It varies with the original air temperature of the parcel. A commonly used value is 6C/km.
2 km 10OC Cold
Parcel Sinks to 1 km
Parcels are same temperature when they reach 1 km
1 km
20OC
Parcel Rises to 1 km
Ground 30OC
Warm
Rawinsonde Plots
Temperature Dew point temperature Winds Temperature grid Dry adiabat grid:
rate at which an unsaturated air parcel cools as it rises.
the mass of the water vapor in a parcel to the mass of dry air
Interpreting Rawinsondes
Temperature Inversions Stability Mixing height Winds Clouds
= 10.5C
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Nocturnal
Advection
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Height
Parcel falls to original position because it is cooler than the surrounding air As parcel rises it cools at -9.8C/km
Temperature
12
Height
Temperature
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Holtzworth Method Starting at the forecasted maximum temperature, follow the dry adiabat (dashed line) until it crosses the morning sounding. This is the estimated peak mixing height for the day. The dry adiabatic rate is how an unsaturated air parcel cools as it rises. It is defined as -9.8C per km.
2000 m
T
1500 m
T
1500 m
1000 m
Dry adiabat
1000 m
Dry adiabat
500 m
500 m
Increasing temperature
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Fog
Time Winds Weather Sky Cover 12:51 Z N 13 Light Rain Fog/Mist 11:51 Z N 12 Light Rain BKN006 OVC011 10:51 Z N 10 Light Rain Fog/Mist OVC004
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Rawinsonde Exercise
Determine the following
850-mb temperature Inversions Afternoon mixing height based on morning temperature sounding, assuming a forecasted high temperature of 18C Afternoon mixing height on afternoon sounding
Based on findings
Did the mixing height estimate from the morning sounding match the mixing height determined from the afternoon sounding?
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Rawinsonde Exercise
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Rawinsonde Exercise
850-mb temperature = ~3OC Forecasted afternoon mixing height=~630 mb or ~3800 m
Actual afternoon mixing height =~600 mb or ~4205 m
Inversions
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Weather Charts
(1 of 5)
Depict upper-air and surface meteorological patterns as a horizontal slice of the atmosphere
Show forecasted meteorological variables at a particular time on a particular pressure level
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Weather Charts
500-mb heights and vorticity
(2 of 5)
Surface pressure
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Weather Charts
Surface fronts
(3 of 5)
Transition zone between air masses Warm air ahead of fronts is often polluted Cold air behind fronts is often clean
Weather Charts
850-mb temperature
Good indicator of stability
(4 of 5)
Weather Charts
(5 of 5)
Eta: NCEP short-range forecast model Now running at 12-km resolution with 60 vertical layers Runs 4 x day (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) Forecasts for 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC out 84 hours UTC/Zulu/GMT
PST -8 MST -7 CST -6 EST -5
Example: 00Z Feb 2 = 1800 CST Feb 1 (For Daylight Savings, 1900 CDT) Forecast time periods
Forecast validation time Based on model initialization time (00 or 12 UTC) + Forecast periods 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96 hrs., etc.
Example: 24-hr forecast from a 12 UTC model run is valid at 12 UTC (7 AM EST) the next day
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25
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At the surface, winds flow counterclockwise and inward toward a center of low pressure, and clockwise and outward around a center of high pressure.
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Ridge
500 mb
Ridge Trough
500 mb
Trough
Surface
Cool column
Warm column
Fast wind
500 mb Ridge Convergence Trough Surface
Fast Slow
Divergence Convergence
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500 mb
Trough
Surface
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Ridge
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35
Negative vorticity is associated with sinking motion and poor air quality
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(1 of 2)
Ridge or trough 850-mb temperature Surface wind direction and strength Vertical velocity
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(2 of 2)
850 mb: temperature (color contours), geopotential heights (solid lines, dm), and winds (barbs, knots)
Atlanta, GA
750 mb: vertical velocity (color contours), geopotential heights (solid lines, dm), and winds (barbs, knots) -B/s C
500 mb: temperature (color contours), geopotential heights (solid lines, dm), and winds (barbs, knots)
Atlanta, GA
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Conclusions
Soundings and weather charts are the cornerstone of conceptual air quality forecasting Soundings
Aloft temperature and winds Stability and Mixing
Weather Charts
Surface winds and fronts 850 temperature 700 vertical velocity 500 heights and vorticity
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Links
Soundings
http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/ http://vortex.plymouth.edu/uacalplt.html http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/ http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/progs/ http://weather.unisys.com/index.html http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models.html http://weather.unisys.com/index.html http://ggweather.com/loops/ncep_loops.htm http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/cmet.html http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/ http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/
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Surface Analyses
Models