Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
January 2006
1
Introduction
Mark Williamson
2
ME Net MW
Net MW
Tihama Ras Laffan B Qatar Saudi Umm Al Nar Arabia UAE 35% Al Kamil IPO
Al Hidd Bahrian
66%
Merchant
(short/medium term contracted)
34%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Creating value through core skills Project development and construction Offtake contract design and execution Project financing Plant operation - both power and
54
22
23
29
9 -1
2001 1 2002 2003 2004
Overview
Ranald Spiers
5
Six projects in six years with an enterprise value of US$6.5 billion ~ current IPR equity commitment of nearly US$400m
Creation of new region - 29m PBIT by 2004 Existing assets performing well
Al Hidd
Bahrain
Ras Laffan B
Qatar
Tihama Shuweihat UAE Umm Al Nar
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Oman
Al Kamil
6
Fuel Type
65 20 20 60 40 40
20 20 24 36 100
2.7 2.7
29 23
2003
2004
6,570
910 600
6,870
910
900
6,995
910 1,025
3,355 2,655
1,500 700 1,500 870
285
1,550
1,550
1,550
1,155
870
285
1,500 650
285
1,500 650
285
1,500
Shuweihat
870
285
Al Kamil
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
(1)
Abu Dhabi Development Office ~ project selection, bidding, negotiating, project development and management
Project companies ~ construction, asset management, client and partner relationships, operations and maintenance Operating companies ~ operations and maintenance, owner and partner relationships
9
Key markets
Primary target markets:
UAE
Qatar Saudi Arabia Oman Bahrain Kuwait
10
Macro environment
Stable Governments, low country risk rankings and good credit ratings
Massive oil and gas reserves Petrodollar economies Strong economic growth driven by high oil prices and diversification away from oil
Regulatory overview
12
Commercial structure
Long-term contracts which set in stone all major revenues and costs
Major risks laid off wherever possible PWPAs, PPAs, ECAs, NGSAs EPC costs fixed with LDs for delays in construction and poor performance
Return on investment
14
Financial structuring
Projects structured using project finance ~ carried out in conjunction with London-based project finance team
Maximise use of senior debt Availability of local capital and international debt with international MLAs /JBIC High leverage is not a problem
15
Competitive environment
16
Partnerships
17
Desalination
18
Agenda
Contract Structures Financing our Growth Desalination Coffee Break Oman Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia Qatar Coffee Break Bahrain Summary David Wadham Peter Barlow Jaideep Sandu Tom Mackay & Kevin Cox David Barlow & Ed Metcalfe David Barlow, Jeff Wright & Steve Pedrick Tom Mackay
Contract structures
David Wadham
20
PWPAs structured on an energy conversion basis (ECA) or fuel supply agreement (FSA)
Most projects are BOO, some BOOT Sub-contracted O&M or combined owner/operator structures Government interest in some projects
22
Project company responsible for: ~ ownership ~ design ~ operation ~ construction ~ commissioning ~ maintenance Offtaker obligation to provide connections to power and water grid and purchase available capacity and output Flat tariff with capacity charge to recover debt service, fixed O&M and equity return; pass-through output charge to cover variable O&M and fuel Payment is in local currency (except Tihama) but includes exchange rate protection 23
24
Energy conversion (Abu Dhabi, Tihama) or separate fuel supply arrangements (Oman, Qatar, Bahrain)
BOO (Abu Dhabi, Oman, Bahrain), BOOT (Tihama and Qatar), with a transfer to the offtaker Accounting treatment: always an operating or finance lease Terms vary from 15 years (Oman), through 20-23 years (Tihama, Abu Dhabi and Bahrain) to 25 years (Qatar), but without market liberalisation renegotiation clauses
25
Others
Long-term arrangements with the OEM (Al Kamil, Umm Al Nar, Tihama with GE and Shuweihat and Ras Laffan with Siemens)
For one or two maintenance cycles All scheduled maintenance sub-contracted for a fixed price, with a degree of unscheduled outage cover provided within the price Based on a term warranty concept, i.e. OEM guarantees to replace all program parts as needed
27
Shareholding structure
The advantages of a government shareholding and the need to generate local investment opportunities
Foreign shareholder has the ability to manage the project and enjoys significant minority protection ~ coupled with government partner with shared goals as an investor Board of 7 directors (4 ADWEA and 3 foreign investors)
Foreign investor appoints the Executive Managing Director ~ Ed Metcalfe Voting on all significant matters at board and shareholder level requires approval of both ADWEA and the foreign investor Government IPO provisions (Taqa was listed on the ADSM in July29
Conclusion
Long-term off take arrangements with single state buyers, guaranteed by sovereigns with investment grade ratings and a strong economic future Robust contractual terms offering secure future returns with revenue protection for supplier and offtaker defaults and for political force majeure events Projects are embedded in the region, with governments participating as co-investors or encouraging direct public ownership Key cost risks (financing and gas turbine parts and maintenance) well mitigated through long-term hedging and supply arrangements Upside remains through refinancing opportunities, the ability to reduce costs over time and merchant tail on BOO projects
30
Project finance
32
Assets backed by long-term (20yrs+) Power (and Water) Purchase Agreements (PPAs/PWPAs)
Contractual Structure designed specifically for non-recourse financing Clients obligations backed by Government guarantees Predictable, long-term cashflows allow high leverage without sponsors support
33
No merchant risk
Excellent track record of project financed IPPs/IWPPs: success stories / accepted model in the banking market Loan syndication allows diversification of lending across different projects/countries: lower risk Project financed IPPs/IWPPs include security on assets and stricter covenants than corporate loans ME countries hydrocarbon-rich, financially sound and politically stable: country risk acceptable to most international PF lenders
34
International lenders particularly active in most countries in the region: UAE, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain
Predominantly regional lenders in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) so far Recent improvements in KSA (e.g. entry in WTO) suggests increased role of intl lenders there
Islamic financing further source of liquidity, of which IPR has experience through Umm Al Nar and Shuweihat
Export Credit Agencies being increasingly used
35
36
Tranche)
Tihama: $510m
Ras Laffan: $663m
Competitive pricing and increasing level of interest suggest large appetite for future IPP/IWPP deals in the region
Virtually all major international project finance lenders present in the region and display appetite for more deals More regional players are becoming familiar with project finance through participation in loan syndications
38
Case study:
Umm Al Nar
Largest IWPP in the world: ~ existing net capacity: 870 MW (power) + 162 MIGD (water) ~ after construction net capacity: 1,550 MW (2,200 MW for 2 years during construction) + 95 MIGD 23 year PWPA with ADWEA: proven contractual structure (4th such deal in Abu Dhabi, but longest tenor to date); Largest ever project finance deal at the time, when lenders appetite in the region was limited; Financing plan structured to maximise liquidity and included use of Islamic financing, short and long term conventional debt; Long-term debt tenor: 20 years;
39
Case study:
Umm Al Nar
Debt Facilities
1) Equity Bridge Facility Of which: Islamic Tranche Of which: Conventional Tranche Amounts US$ million 441 291 150
Main Features
Tenor / Repayment: Bullet repayment on July 2008 Other: 100% guaranteed by Shareholders
Tenor / Repayment: July 2006 to July 2008 Other: Ranking Pari-Passu with Long Term F.
Tenor / Repayment: Door-to-door 20 years; Profiled repayments: Jan 2009 to Jul 2023 Other: "True-Up Advance": Drawdown at end of availability period to repay part of EBF and achieve 80:20 gearing (subject to cover ratio covenants)
1,778
40
Case study:
Umm Al Nar
Capital Structure
Total Funding Requirements:
Of which: Acquisition Purchase Price Of which: EPC Contract Amounts US$ million
2,116
1,000 736 After "Refinance" US$m % 0 0.0% 1,102 52.1% 0 0.0% 14.9% 315 698 33.0% 2,116
Sources of Funds
Short Term Facility Long Term Facility Equity Bridge Facility Equity Injection Cash Flow From Operations
Before "Refinance" US$m % 231 10.9% 978 46.2% 440 20.8% 0 0.0% 468 22.1% 2,116
2,116
41
Desalination
Jaideep Sandhu
42
Introduction
Removal of salts from seawater ~ suitable for human consumption, agriculture or industrial use
Desalination Processes ~ Thermal Distillation Processes - Multi Stage Flash (MSF) - Multi Effect Distillation (MED) ~ Membrane Processes - Reverse Osmosis - Electro Dialysis ~ Hybrid Plant (Thermal with RO)
43
2008
100
181.5
95
44
45
Brine
Vapour Vapour
Seawater
Steam Power
Condensing
Desalinated Water
Well proven track record Large capacity units Low O&M cost High quality product water
Used in IWPPs where adequate steam and power is available Technology - Doosan, Hitachi Zosen, HHI/Sasakura and Fisia
47
2nd
Vapour
Effect
Vacuum Vapour
1St
Effect
Desalinated Water
Desalinated Water
Reject Brine
48
Mid-size units
Low O&M cost High quality product water Used in IWPPs where adequate steam is available but may be some constraints on power Technology - Sidem, Weir Techna, IDE and Doosan
49
Potable Water
Membrane Racks
50
Preferred option for stand alone water plants Low capacity units Easy O&M Lower installation cost Higher O&M Cost
Standardisation of membranes
51
Steam Turbines
G
Gas Turbines Brine Return
MSF/MED distillers
S/W Intake
52
Growth potential
Driven by increasing scarcity of fresh water resources coupled with increases in population, urbanisation, and industrial development
In parts of the region and around the world, development of desalination plants essential for survival Currently 75% of Global Desalination capacity in 10 countries, mainly focussed in Saudi Arabia 17.5%, UAE 16.5%, USA 16%, Kuwait 6.5% The efficient Integrated Power and Water Projects becoming a standard in the Middle East IPP process ~ sets a good precedent for development elsewhere
53
2500
2005 2015
2000
Anticipated Integrated Power and Water Plant Investment Abu Dhabi Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Bahrain $4 bn $2 bn $3 bn $12 bn $2 bn
1500
1000
500
Abu Dhabi
Oman
Oman
Tom Mackay & Kevin Cox
55
Macro environment
Ruled by Sultan Qaboos since 1970 GDP in 2004: US $24.4 billion Currency: Omani Rial pegged to US$ Codified legal system, existing alongside a Sharia system
Inflation
(2)
Population growth(2)
2.5%
S&P
Market structure
Electricity and Water Sector deregulated in 2003 ~ separation of generation, transmission and distribution/supply Independent Regulator overseas power and water sector Transmission Company (Transco) dispatches plant based on economic merit order and system requirements
Government owned Power and Water Procurer (PWP) is sole purchaser of power and water - then onsells to Distribution companies
Government owned Electricity Holding Company (EHC) - holds shares in 100% government owned companies pending privatisation
57
Rusayl
Wadi Al Jizzi
Gas/Oil
Gas/Oil Gas/Oil Gas/Oil Gas/Oil
688
334 280 285 427 585 200 3,326
EHC
EHC
Al Manah Al Kamil
46%
Barka 1
20 33 0 95
AES
Gas/Oil
58
Saudi Arabia
Oman
59
Publicly listed on Muscat Securities Exchange IPR own 65%, balance held by local shareholders 15 year PPA and GSA expiring April 2017 ~ backed by Oman Government guarantees PPA is US$ and PPI linked with capacity payments based on availability Original investment of $133m, funded 80/20 debt/equity
60
Al Kamil performance
Summary
64
Abu Dhabi
David Barlow & Ed Metcalfe
65
Macro environment
UAE - federation of 7 Emirates ~ political power Abu Dhabi GDP in 2004: $103bn
6.4% A1 3.4%
Inflation
(1)
Population growth(1)
6.0%
(1) Source: MEED, 2004 (2) Moodys, Dec 2004 (3) Oil & Gas Journal, 2005
Middle Easts most successful privatization programme ~ six projects ~ in excess of US$ 5 billion invested
Contractual structure ~ 60% government ownership guarantees stability and fair treatment for the project company Long-term off-take arrangements backed by ~ robust demand growth for power and water ~ significant oil reserves and a strong economy
68
Demand growth
Abu Dhabi Power Demand 1993 - 2004
8000 7000 6000
Power, MW
5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
69
Demand growth
Abu Dhabi Water Demand 1993 - 2004
600 500
Water, MIGD
400 300 200 100 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Water Capacity
Water Demand
70
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Umm Al Nar
Oman
71
Umm Al Nar
72
Financing - $1,100m 20yr loan, $230m 5yr loan, $440m equity bridge facility: balance from existing plant revenues
O&M ownership - 70% IPR and 30% TEPCO
73
Purchase and operation of current Umm Al Nar, Old Existing Assets and New Existing Assets Construction of Umm Al Nar New Plant Extension and integration with New Existing Assets Closure of old existing assets in 2008
74
UAN West B Station (commissioned in 2002/3); ~ 5 x 12.5 MIGD Desalination plant (MSF) ~ 2 x 3.5 MIGD Desalination plant (MED)
76
Net capacity ~ 1,500 MW Power ~ 25 MIGD Water ~ Integration of New Existing Assets
Full commercial operation 2006
77
78
O&M Agreement
79
UAE
Shuweihat
Saudi Arabia
Oman
80
Shuweihat
81
Financed $950m 20 yr commercial tranche, $250m 20 yr Islamic tranche, $350m equity bridge loan
O&M IPR/CMS JV (50:50 ownership)
82
52.5 MIGD reverse osmosis desalination plant ~ IPR and Mitsui in discussion with ADWEA 1,500 MW, 100 MIGD Shuweihat S2 IWPP New Abu Dhabi Island developments ~ potential demand of 4,000 - 7,000 MW IWPP to supply Aluminium smelter - up to 2,000 MW Fujairah F2 IWPP 1,000 MW + 70 MIGD
83
Potential Projects
Saudi Arabia
David Barlow, Jeff Wright & Steve Pedrick
84
Macro environment
Inflation
(1)
Population growth(1)
(1)
2.7%
85
Ministry of Water and Electricity Saudi Electricity and Cogeneration Regulatory Authority
Saudi Electricity Company ~ existing power generation, transmission and distribution ~ responsible for new build IPPs
Saline Water Conversion Company ~ existing desalination capacity Water & Electricity Company ~ jointly owned by SEC and SWCC ~ responsible for new build IWPPs
86
Country installed capacity (2001, MWE figures) ~ diesel fuel: 450 MW ~ gas fuel: 15,500 MW ~ oil (HFO/crude): 10,000 MW ~ 1,470 MIGD
Demand growth ~ 6% forecast growth rate for power, 8% forecast for water ~ peak demand 24.5 GW in 2001, installed capacity 26 GW ~ growth from population increase and industrial diversification
87
Gross capacity: 4 plants under construction, total capacity 1,085 MW, 4,400,000 lbs/hr steam
Fuel: Gas (Cogen) supplied FOC by Saudi Aramco Employees: 140 total
Tihama
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Configuration:
3 sites each: 2 x GE 7FA 1 site: 2 x GE 7EA
Oman
88
Lenders ~ Bank Saudi Fransi ~ Samba ~ Arab Bank ~ Riyadh Bank ~ International Banks
89
Saudi Aramco
Saudi Oger
The client, off-taker and fuel supplier Owned 100% by Saudi Government
Established in 1978 Saudi Oger is an international construction company based in Saudi Arabia Background in construction but business diversification strategy into power and telecoms well underway
General Electric
Sub-Contract Packages Civil Mechanical Electrical C&I Fire Protection Banque Saudi Fransi SAMBA Arab Bank Contractual Services Agreement Main Contractor EPC Contract
HHI
Mitsui
Facility Agreement
Tihama
Saudi Aramco
Banks
Riyadh Bank
Saudi Hollandi Etc.
91
92
Uthmaniyah - GE 7FA
93
Shedgum - GE 7FA
94
95
Juaymah - GE 7FA
96
Q1 06
Q3 04
Q2 06 Q3 06
Q4 04
Q1 05
Q4 06
97
IWPP structure
98
Sponsor WEC WEC WEC WEC SEC SEC SEC SEC SEC SEC SEC
Power 900 MW 700 MW 2,500 MW 1,100 MW 1,725 MW 2,400 MW 3,600 MW 1,725 MW 2,400 MW 600 MW 1,725 MW
UAE
Oman
99
Marafiq ~ 2,500 MW + 176 MIGD at Jubail (bids due in April 2006) ~ 600 MW Yanbu Aramco ~ possible expansion of existing Tihama assets ~ other cogeneration opportunities Maaden ~ IWPP supply for Aluminium smelter, mining extraction projects Saline Water Conversion Company ~ new build desalination driven projects Privatisation of existing SEC and SWCC assets
100
Qatar
Tom Mackay
101
Macro environment
Country ruled by the Al-Thani family following independence from UK protectorate in 1971 GDP in 2004: US $28.4 billion Codified legal system alongside a Sharia system
7.0% A+ 4.7%
Inflation
(2)
2.6%
(1) DOE/EIA 2005 (2) MEED, 2005 (3) S&P
Oil related economy: 15.2 bbls reserves Gas dominated economy: proven reserves of 910 TCF - 3rd largest proven reserves in the world
102
Installed capacity
Current market share is as follows:
Facility RAFASAT Fuel Type Gas Power Water MW MIGD 970 55 Owner
QEWC
RAF B
RAF B1 RAF B2
(1)
Gas
Gas Gas Gas Gas
609
376.5 567 756 1025 4304
33
0 29 40 60 217
QEWC
QEWC QEWC AES/QEWC/ QP/GIC QEWC/IPR/ Chubu Electric
(1)
103
Installed capacity of some 2,712 MW and 128 MIGD ~ additional 1,592 MW and 89 MIGD under construction
Qatar Electricity & Water Company (QEWC) historically developed all power generation and water projects KAHRAMAA sole purchaser and distributor of all power and water in country Electricity/water demand has growth historically 6-8% per annum
104
Attractiveness
Projected demand for Electricity and Water in 2006 and 2007 is over 20% and 10% respectively
Major Industrial developments in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed in the Petro-chemical, LNG expansions and Aluminium Smelter New developments worth US$10 billion plus in 2005 ~ fuelling new expansion in the electricity and water sector Two IWPPs in Qatar ~ Ras Laffan A (AES +EMP) 750 MW, 40 MIGD ~ Q Power (QEWC/IPR/Chubu Electric) 1,025 MW, 60 MIGD
105
Ras Laffan B
Qatar
UAE
Saudi Arabia
UAE Oman
106
Q Power (the project company) is owned 55% by Qatar Electricity & Water company, 40% by IPR and 5% by Chubu Electric Power and water capacity and output sold to KAHRAMAA (stateowned single buyer of power and water) ~ under 25 year BOOT Power and Water Purchase Agreement Plant scheduled to enter commercial operation in three phases between 2006 - 2008
All three Siemens Gas Turbines are on site and are being installed.
220kV switchgear for all gas turbines completed First Doosan Desalination Unit installed and work is progressing well on its associated pumps and pipe work First HRSG with its associated equipment being erected
Progress on connecting to the Seawater intake and outfall pipework in advanced stage of completion
108
Ras Laffan B
109
Ras Laffan B
110
Ras Laffan B
111
Bahrain
John Hurst
113
Macro environment
Political ~ stable, liberal, and the most democratic of the Gulf States
Currency pegged to the US$ Legal structure very similar to that of the UAE
7% A4.9%
Inflation
Population growth
1.5%
(1)
S&P
114
Regulatory framework ~ transmission and distribution is solely Government-owned ~ MEW is the sole offtaker for power and water backed by Government of Bahrain Guarantee
International Power and Suez Energy key players in the market Demand growth 8% power, 10% water Installed capacity ~2,000 MW (excluding Alba aluminum smelter)
115
Bahrain
Qatar
UAE
Saudi Arabia
UAE Oman
116
Al Hidd
117
118
Prospects / outlook
IPR consortium has been operating Hidd plant from 23 Jan 2006
Financial close expected in July 2006 ~ payment of purchase price in July Immediate earnings MEW / MOF are both pragmatic and fair clients
Summary
Ranald Spiers
120
2001 - 2004
2005 - 2008
122
Scope for further desalination projects in the Middle East Operating desalination plants - a key skill for IPR Ability to capitalise on the ME experience elsewhere (Australia, USA)
2500
2000
2005 2015
1500
1000
500
$4 bn $2 bn $3 bn $12 bn $2 bn
124
Strategic focus
125
Success factors