Wind Engineering Module 6.

1: Cost and Weight Models

Lakshmi N. Sankar lsankar@ae.gatech.edu

Overview
In this module, we will briefly examine models for estimating the cost of energy (in cents per KWhr) that the operator needs to charge. We will look at two approaches
Engineering models based on weight and cost (This module 6.1) Models suitable for hybrid power systems (Module 6.2)
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Some Definitions
Debt: Money the operator borrows to finance a wind turbine project Interest on debt: Interest charged per year by finance institution (expressed in percentage) Equity: Funds the operator raises by issuing stocks Return on equity: Return the shareholders expect on their investments (expressed in percentage per $1 invested).
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Definitions, continued..
AWCC: Average weighted cost of capital Example:
20% equity 13% return on equity 80% loan 6.94% interest on loan

AWCC for this example is (0.20*13+0.80*6.94) = 8.15%=0.0815 Inflation-adjusted AWCC = (AWCC-Inflation)/ (1+Inflation). For example if inflation is 3%, the inflation adjusted AWCC is (0.0815-0.03)/(1.03) = 0.05=5% This is sometimes called discount rate.
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Cost of Energy Source: NREL /TP-500-40566

Definition
FCR: fixed charge rate. It includes
AWCC (payment to the bank loan and equity holders) Depreciation Income tax Property tax Insurance Other finance fees
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Initial Capital Cost of Sum of turbine system cost for elements listed below + balance
station costs

Initial capital Cost (Continued..)

Annual operating Expenses

Include land lease, operation and maintenance, cost of replacing or overhauling parts. Expressed in dollars per KWh.

Units are in KWh We may view this as power production integrated over time for a whole year. Here is a very crude description of how this is computed.
Power production depends on how hard wind blows and how often It is assumed that the wind speed at a particular site has a Weibull distribution. This distribution gives the probability that the wind is blowing at a given speed With some knowledge of the wind turbine power characteristics (rated power, peak Cp, tip speed ratio at which peak Cp occurs, etc), power production at different wind speeds is estimated. This is multiplied by the Weibull probability that wind is blowing at that speed. Summation is done over all the wind speeds. The result is multiplied by 365 days x 24 hours/day

Net Average Energy Production (AEP) Overview

Capacity Factor = AEP / (Rated Power x 365 x 24) may also be computed. 10 See weibull_betz5_lswt_baseline.xls for example

Example: Turbine Capital Cost NREL Report

1500 1500 Baseline Projected Component Component Component Costs $1000 Costs $1000 Rotor 248 248 Blades 148 148 Hub 64 64 Pitch mchnsm & bearings 36 36 Drive train,nacelle 563 563 Low speed shaft 20 20 Bearings 12 12 Gearbox 151 151 Mech brake, HS cpling etc 3 3 Generator 98 98 Variable spd electronics 101 101 Yaw drive & bearing 12 12 Main frame 64 64 Electrical connections 60 60 Hydraulic system 7 7 Nacelle cover 36 36 Control, safety system 10 10 Tower 101 101 TURBINE CAPITAL COST (TCC) 921 921 Rating (kWs)

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Blade Cost

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Example continued.. We compare baseline and projected

Rating (kWs) 1500 Component Foundations Transportation Roads, civil works Assembly & installation Elect interfc/connect Permits, engineering BALANCE OF STATION COST (BOS) Project Uncertainty Turbine cost from previous slide Initial capital cost (ICC) Baseline Component Costs $1000 49 51 79 51 127 33 388 162 921 1,472 Projected Component Costs $1000

1500

49 51 79 51 127 33 388

162 921 1,472

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Other costs

Baseline Projectedi n In $1000 $1000 LEVELIZED REPLACEMENT COSTS (LRC) ($10.7 per kW) O&M $20/kW/Yr (O&M) Land ($/year/turbine) 16 30 5 16 30 5

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Example, continued..
We next compute probability of wind blowing at a particular speed. Weibull probability function is used. This depends on a parameter called K factor, and wind speed at the hub.
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Weibull Distribution
K: Shape factor Changing k shifts probability to the left or right. : Scale parameter In our example, k= 2 = Wind Speed

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Efficiency of the Turbine

We next compute efficiency of the turbine when it operates at power other than rated power. If field data is available, it is used. Otherwise a simple logic is used:
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50%

y n e c i f E

40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 P/P(rated) 0.8 1 1.2

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Hub Power
If wind velocity is less than cut-in speed, hub power is zero. If wind velocity less than rates speed it is found from At higher than rated speeds, rated power is used. At greater than cutout speeds, power is zero. The hub power, when multiplied by Weibull probability and

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Annual Energy Production

Turbine Energy corrected for other losses * 8760 * Availability 4

Other losses may include electrical system losses We divide by 4 because the wind speeds are binned (or grouped by m/sec increments. We will find power, for example at 2, 2.25, 2.50, and 2.75 m/sec and take the average. 365 x 24 is 8760

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Cost of Energy
Once all the information is available, we can find the cost of energy per KWh.

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