Istanbul International Water Forum May 3-5, 2011, at the Halic Congress and Cultural Centre

T he Role of Climate Change in Modulating Hydroelectric

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Power Gener ation over the

Professor Fredrick Semazzi North Carolina State University Department of Marine, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences

River Nile Basin

Lake Victoria Basin

Source of White Nile Directly supports over 30 million people. Average economic productivity between $3-4 billion per year.

Provides water and hydroelectric power Supports agriculture, trade, tourism, wildlife and fisheries Depends on Lake Water

Introduction Recommendations

Current Summary

Location of Proposed projects

Climate projections and uncertainties

Karuma Project

Dramatic Drop in Lake Victoria Level

Excessive Release?

Drought?

Major Controversy About Hydrology Release Rule

Agreed Curve Rule

Approximate amount of water that would naturally flow out of lake if there were no dams.

Historic low = 1133.2 mASL

No flow = 1122.9 mASL

LOW-HIGH HYDROLOGY RELEASE Rule

Low Hydrology scenario (between 1133.5 and 1135 ft.) constant release = 687 m3/s High Hydrology scenario (exceeding 1136.2 ft) constant release = 1850 m3/s

Key Climate Questions Involved in Planning of HEP Sector Under Climate Conditions

- When

will the lake levels switch from the present declining trend to the projected increasing trend - What will the annual average water lake levels be under climate change conditions - What will the Season-to-season variability of lake water lake levels be under climate change conditions - What will the year-to-year variability of lake water levels be under climate change conditions - What are thresholds of acceptable climate model projections uncertainty for the hydroelectric sector

Climate Change Adaptation for the Hydroelectric Power Industry Over the Nile Basin in Uganda
Workshop-1 Climate Indices Uncertainty Workshop-2 Model/Present/Future Climate Uncertainty Workshop-3 Adaptation

Lake Victoria Levels Comparison with Derived Lake Level Climate Index 1961-1990

1. Model Validation Based on Lake Level Climate Index (1961-1990) 2. Model Projections of Lake Level Climate Index (2071-2100)

Develop Strategies for Adaptation of Hydroelectric Power Industry to Projected Climate Change

Lake Level Climate Index Hydrologic balance

Lake Level Climate Index (Rainfall Based on 6 Stations)

PL = Precipitation over lake Weighted sum of annual precipitation over 6 stations (Jinja, Entebbe, Kisumu, Bukoba, Musoma, and Mwanza) E = Evaporation over lake Constant 1595 mm/year Ac = Surface area of tributary catchments Kagera Nzoia Yala Sondu 55800 km2 11900 km2 2650 km2 3230 km2 610 km2

Awach Kaboun

A = Only outflow is based in agreed curve or step release

Lake Level Climate Index Algorithm

Sum Average Annual Precipitation from 6 stations = P Scale up to precipitation over lake: PL = P x 1.32 Total Inflow (Qin) = 2.7 x [rc(Nzoia) x Ac(Nzoia) + rc(Yala) x Ac(Yala) + rc(Sondu) x Ac(Sondu) + rc(Awach Kaboun) x Ac(Awach Kaboun)] + 1.10 x [rc(Kagera) x Ac(Kagera)] Calculate runoff coefficient for each tributary: rc = 0.0002 x Pc Previous Years Level: Ln-1 Ln-1(estimated) 2nd iteration Agreed Curve (Qout2): Qout1 = 70.332 (Ln-1 + L1 8.058)2 (Koren, 1995) Qout1 = 66.3 (Ln-1 + L1 7.96)2.01 (Sene, 2002) 2nd iteration level change: L2 = PL E + Qin/A Qout2 Predicted Lake level: Ln = Ln-1 + L2 1st iteration Agreed Curve (Qout1): Qout1 = 70.332 (Ln-1 8.058)2 (Koren, 1995) Qout1 = 66.3 (Ln-1 7.96)2.01 (Sene, 2002) 1st iteration level change: L1 = PL E + Qin/A Qout1 Calculate sub-catchment rainfall for each tributary: Nzoia Pc = (0.685 x PL) + 154.5 Yala Pc = (0.951 x PL) + 64.7 Sondu Pc = (0.666 x PL) + 302.6 Awach Kaboun Pc = (0.785 x PL) + 337.4 Kagera Pc = (0.556 x PL) + 142.8

Sensitivity of Water Balance Model to different data sets

Water Balance Model w/6 stations as in Tate et al. (2004) (red) compared w/ actual levels (blue) CRU is more readily available for longer & more current time period (black) Water balance model under predicts using CRU (1980s) Predicts higher level 19962005 (over release?)

IPCC FAR-2007

Projected Rainfall over Lake Victoria Basin

(Left) RegCM3 (40 km grid); (middle) FVGCM (100km); (right) IPCC ensemble (greater than 200km) climate model rainfall projections for east Africa (A2: 2071-2100 average) minus (RF: 1961-1990 average) for the Oct-Dec short rains.

Regional Hydrological Projections

Present Level (11m)

NC STATE

Climate Modeling Applications

Dr. Fredrick Semazzi

Projected Lake Levels

RCM Projections With Agreed Curve

RCM Projections With High Hydrology Release

Present Level (11m)

Present Level (11m)

Conclusions

Decadal variability (oscillatory; EOF1; same sign over EA) highly correlated with ENSO-like SST pattern also found by Clement et al; Decadal Variability (trend, EO2; dipole pattern over EA) highly correlated with southern oceans. We have tested a suitable framework for assessing future performance of the hydroelectric energy industry in Uganda The proposed step High Level & Low Level water release operation rule that assumes that the upper water outflow threshold based on the early 60s will result in flooding and will have to be revised. There is need to develop another operation rule (revised user defined thresholds) for more optimal adaptation to climate change; will require close collaboration with SECTORAL experts hydroelectric energy industry in Uganda

Future Plans
FUTURE PLANS (~1 month) Complete calculations are based on PRECIS model projections and compare with our present projections (results could WB Project Report) FUTURE PLANS ~(1 year)
1.

Carry out calculations based on CORDEX model projections (targeting IPCC; paper by August/2012); joint with NMHs in Lake Victoria Basin Region Feasibility study (funded by EAC/LVB; with Burundi, Kenya; Rwanda; Uganda; Tanzania): STRENGTHENING METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES ON LAKE VICTORIA TO ENHANCE SAFETY OF NAVIGATION AND EFFICIENT EXPLOITATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES

2.

FUTURE PLANS (~3 years) Refine understanding of the sources of variability & physical mechanisms that determine the observed asymmetric teleconnection precipitation distribution across Lake Victoria basin and make CC projections & GPC-based multi model experimental seasonal forecasts including the evolution of the lakes water circulation and its impacts for adaptation studies.

Collaborative Research and Education on the Response of Biological & Hydrological Systems to Climate Change over the Eastern Mediterranean Transboundary River Basins
North Carolina State University (USA) Universities in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Egypt, Turkey University of Surrey (UK)

Climate Data Regional RCC CORDEX Projections

Regional Climate Data from Multiple Sources

PIRE Climate Prediction Research NCSU MEAS & STAT Climate Science

Station & Gridded Climate Data

Interdisciplinary Research Regional Prediction & Projections Bio-Hydro Data; Current Policy & Risk Management

WCRP WGCRI International Oversight

Hydrological & Biological Sciences (Economics, GIS, Statistics, Communication, Policy) Development of Adaptation & Mitigation Options

Enabling Sustainability Through Engagement

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Observed Climate Indices For Observed Biological and Hydrological Sectors

rt ce Un t y ain

- Climate Model Validation Observed Climate Indices - Climate Model Projections Projected Climate Indices

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ta er

in

ty

Options for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation based on projected Indices & uncertainty estimates

Implementation of Changes in Policy & Risk Management for Domestic Planning

Outreach & Training Materials for Managers & Policymakers Training Workshops for Managers & Policymakers

Figure 4. Research & Operational Integration of Climate Information into Adaptation & Mitigation Planning CORDEX: COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment CRMS: Climate Risk Management Strategies RCC: GFCS Regional Climate Center NCSU: North Carolina State University NMHs: National Meteorological & Hydrologic Services WCRP: World Climate Research Program WGCRI: WCRP Working Group for Regional Climate Information WMO: World Meteorological Organization, Switzerland Integration of Climate Science with Biology & Hydrology Science Interdisciplinary Research Engagement of Policymakers & Policy Implementation

Collaborative Research and Education on the Response of Biological & Hydrological Systems to Climate Change over the Eastern Mediterranean Transboundary River Basins

CONTACTS

USA: Principal Investigator, Dr. Fredrick Semazzi (Principal Investigator) North Carolina State University (NCSU; USA) Caucuses: Dr. David Tarkhnishvili, Ilia State University (Georgia) Turkey: Dr. Baris Onol (Istanbul Technical University; Turkey) Egypt: Dr. Mohamed Magdy (Cairo University; Egypt) Private Sector: Dr. Nihat Cubukcu (MEAS & WeatherPredict Consulting Inc.) PLEASE CONTACT ANY OF THESE PEOPLE IF INTERESTED IN THE PROJECT