STRATEGIC SECURITY FUTURE FOR INDO-ASIAPACIFIC REGION

Australia; The European Tiger Zorba Parer

DEFINING THE REGION

A China centric view of the region is forming around clear data indicating a growth in all elements of Chinese national power Indo-Asia-Pacific as a hemispherical system Indo-Asia-Pacific maritime region The Indian Ocean maritime region The Pacific Ocean maritime region Mainland Asia

SUB-REGIONS

Asia

North, East, South, West

SLOC to Africa, Middle East, Mediterranean, Europe, Asia and littoral regions SLOC to South America, North America, Siberia, Asia, and Pacific Littoral States

Indian Ocean

Pacific Ocean

Oceania
Passage between Indian and Pacific oceans. SLOC to Australian east coast and New Zealand

This is a region dominated by maritime geography, and transport economics.

EXCEPTIONALISM

Quadrella of exceptional States

USA; Global hegemonic power, balancing costs of maintaining the Global Commons, with ability to influence State to State relations. China; Communist Billion Citizen State, seeking to rise pacifically. India; Most populous democracy, seeking to ensure continued Indian Ocean dominance, and influence within the Asia land mass. Japan; forced demilitarisation, economic power projection, civil institutions with monopoly on use of force within Japanese jurisdiction.

ARTICLES REVIEWED

Cooperation from Strength The United States, China and the South China Sea
January 2012, Edited by Patrick M. Cronin Contributors, Patrick M Cronin, Peter A Dutton, M Taylor Fravel, James R Holmes, Robert D Kaplan, Will Rogers, and Ian Storey

Power and Choice; Asian Security Futures

Rory Medcalf Chapter 15 by Ralph A Cossa

International Relations of Asia (2008)

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS OF ASIA

No settled pattern of order in Asia. All the major powers are in processes of transition. Rise of China as single most significant contributor to regional change in Asian power structures. India rising, but not as quickly as China. Need for domestic structural reforms and uncertainties about how best to assert a more active international and regional role are evident in Japan. Russia trying to reassert its Asia presence. Continued reliance on US military dominance.

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS OF ASIA

Growing Chinese pre-eminence Japan seeking to normalise as a nation India looking east, seeking a more active role in AsiaPacific ASEAN; increasingly institutionalised, driving regional cooperation Near term security issues
Korean Peninsula tensions China-Taiwan tensions

Continued importance of existing USA-Bilateral security arrangements Geopolitical Considerations Regional geographical considerations

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS OF ASIA

Pathways to the Future; Two Scenarios

Continuation of current order, moderated by USA primacy

Dependent on massive military commitments to the region At risk of a declining USA economy Increased US involvement in regional multilateralism

Multipolar system, with sub-regional hegemens dominating the Indo-Asia-Pacific region

A weakening US Chinese band wagoning by US allied states Concert of powers possible (US, China, India, and Russia) Coalitions attempting to form a balance of powers.

COOPERATION FROM STRENGTH

CHAPTER I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Main thesis - Cooperative Primacy

Increased US Naval presence, contingent upon a healthy US Economy. A new web of US security partnerships Peace and security assurance in the South China Sea Increased US economic engagement in the Region Increased focus on US-China relations, supporting rules based system of cooperation and dispute resolution

COOPERATION FROM STRENGTH

CHAPTER I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

History as a record of Chinese geostrategic centrality in Asia 150 Years of political upheaval after Millennia of Chinese rule Chinese claims over South China Sea can be understood as a Greater Caribbean moment

Constructivism anyone?

Leading Asian arms modernisation Hemispherical economic dependencies

Could China survive without Japan?

COOPERATION FROM STRENGTH

CHAPTER I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Nations surrounding China, economically engaged and hedging USA as an offshore balancer
US Chinese conflict not a favourable option for risk averse minor nations: Australia, NZ, Papua, Indonesia. Produces bias against any China-US conflict. [Z} Australian Defence Budget as an indicator

Submarines as the ultimate maritime presence Aerial surveillance and the age drones Air lift and emergency response

COOPERATION FROM STRENGTH

CHAPTER I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

China rebuffs attempts to move the South China Sea disputes from regional to global forums Great power behaviour evident in Chinese moves to bilateral agreements, versus multilateral engagement

Does USA movement to multilateral engagement signal a abdication of their Great Power status? Limits of Realism in an Institutionalised power structure?

UNCLOS and other Customary International Laws tend to limit Great Power influence.

Theoretical tangent: Is this an example of a self destructive tendency in Great Power behaviour? Self enforcing natural laws?

COOPERATION FROM STRENGTH

CHAPTER II - MARITIME SECURITY IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND THE COMPETITION OVER MARITIME RIGHTS

Multiple state claimants over territory is a feature of geostrategic reality in the south China sea. US maritime predominance necessary. US Neutrality in Regional Dynamics Chinese Maritime realities ASEAN and Littoral Regions Conflict avoidance to balance policy for US foreign diplomacy

COOPERATION FROM STRENGTH

CHAPTER III - TREATIES

History of Chinese sovereign claim. Chinese claims not supported by UNCLOS Maritime Resources

Important fishing grounds Crude oil Natural Gas

Sea Lane Security Chinese policy of reassurance, and bilateral agreements between claimants

Engagement through ASEAN in multilateral appeasement, reversed after unpromising start

COOPERATION FROM STRENGTH

CHAPTER III - TREATIES

China insists on bilateral approach

No substantive agreements have been reached via bilateral approaches

Other claimants prefer multilateral approach to balance Chinese influence Failure of the 2002 DoC; further talks China will continue blocking moves for arbitration and 3rd party intervention China will continue asserting effective control over the South China Sea in pursuit of its sovereign claims

COOPERATION FROM STRENGTH

CHAPTER IV -CRACKS IN THE GLOBAL FOUNDATION: INTERNATIONAL LAW AND INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

China asserting interests in ways which threaten the normative global maritime commons China seeking to Shape CIL through State behaviour Challenges to established positions of UNCLOS Three pillars of Modern Globalisation

Open, Market based access to resources and trade International Institutions fostering stability Stability in the Global Commons

COOPERATION FROM STRENGTH

CHAPTER IV -CRACKS IN THE GLOBAL FOUNDATION: INTERNATIONAL LAW AND INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

Managing the Maritime commons Right of access to the high seas

Enshrined in UN Charter

Constabulary role of Navies Multiple forms of State maritime jurisdiction Chinese anti-access policy towards SCS Regional Baselines

Boundaries at or near the shoreline between a coastal states fully sovereign territory and the maritime zones that extend seaward.

COOPERATION FROM STRENGTH

CHAPTER IV -CRACKS IN THE GLOBAL FOUNDATION: INTERNATIONAL LAW AND INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

China is seeking to change the rules and norms that define maritime rights US and allies should act against this change US should ratify UNCLOS

Great power multilateral dilemma?

COOPERATION FROM STRENGTH

CHAPTER V THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

Natural Resources

Energy Fisheries Minerals

The Challenge of Climate Change Dynamic interaction between Land and Maritime resources Promoting regional stability

Alternative Fuels Adaptive technologies

COOPERATION FROM STRENGTH

CHAPTER VI ROUGH WATERS FOR COALITION BUILDING

US Maritime Strategy

Good order at sea Three Principles:

Preserving freedom of the Seas Ensuring uninterrupted flow of shipping Facilitating ready movement of goods and people access across US frontiers

Current Maritime cooperation in SCS

US assistance programs CARAT and SEACAT

Challenges to Maritime coalition building

COOPERATION FROM STRENGTH

CHAPTER VI ROUGH WATERS FOR COALITION BUILDING

500 years with a global maritime hegemon

Portugal Holland England USA

Multinational trusteeship (Multipolarity) would be a new phenomenon Dual nature of Navies makes it difficult to distinguish between Competitive and Cooperative State behaviours The China Factor

Chinese policy assertions of indisputable sovereignty over SCS islands and waters Failure of DOC Reactions to CARAT

COOPERATION FROM STRENGTH

CHAPTER VI ROUGH WATERS FOR COALITION BUILDING

Globalised economy relies of free flow of goods Southeast Asian states have territorial claims at stake Beijing view of vital interest against coalitions Washing should work bilaterally to uphold maritime security

POWER AND CHOICE

FUTURES

Future 1: US Primacy Future 2: An Asian Balance of Powers Future 3: Concert of Powers Future 4: Chinese Primacy Shocks

ZORBAS THOUGHTS

Commitments made under ASEAN agree to pacific resolution of disputes.

Arbitration offices provided. Disputes agreed through offsets in resolutions. Costs of providing courts as a common good. Dams as an example of transnational water disputes.

Domestic constructivism
Uncertainties arising from domestic politics Model Theories.

Chinese Maritime presence

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/

ZORBA THOUGHTS

Secondary Effects - Cooperative Primacy

Answer to increased traffic through Chinese waters, the enforcement agency grew. This has led China to effect control of East and South China Seas.
Nuclear capabilities on Hainan Island lead to a South China Sea predominance. China continues to assert rights in these matters. Arbitration as an answer? Not likely, international laws currently favour the Chinese opposition. China has a negative bias in acceding to any international arbitration. Assertions of Exceptionalism.

VIETNAM - MARITIME MOVEMENTS

VIETNAM - MARITIME MOVEMENTS

TAIWAN - MARITIME MOVEMENTS

TAIWAN 8HRS LATER

EAST CHINA SEA- MARITIME MOVEMENTS

KOREAN PENINSULA

JAPAN MARITIME MOVEMENTS

JAPAN MARITIME MOVEMENTS

DUTCH MARITIME MOVEMENTS

MAJOR STRATEGIC FACTORS

US military dominance Chinese resource demands Japanese economic power Indian resource demands Multiple minor to medium sized nations

MIDDLE AND SMALL STATES

State Survival Maintaining Sovereignty Balancing Great Powers Engagement through Multilateralism