Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
(NASDAQ:BITS)
Feb 5, 2010
Agenda
Executive Summary Company Overview Investment Thesis Valuation Methodology Q&A
Blurry Future
Recommendation: SELL 12-month price target: $5.18 (-40%)
1) Core business erosion over next 3-5 years
2) New Mobile Browsing Venture is likely to disappoint
Agenda
Executive Summary Company Overview Investment Thesis Valuation Methodology Q&A
Agenda
Executive Summary Company Overview Investment Thesis Valuation Methodology Q&A
Investment Thesis
I. Core businesses losing market share
Products lack competitiveness Customers moving toward proprietary products
Absence of pricing power
3M
Number of Download
Opera
Source: Company Documents and Student Analysis.
BITS
Bitstream CLEAR Fonts, BLURRY Future.
Investment Thesis
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
FY 09E FY 10E FY 11E FY 12E FONT TECH FONTS PUBLISHING TECH
Source: Company Documents and Student Analysis.
Investment Thesis
Projected Operating Income Mix
100% 50% 0% -50% -100% -150% FY 09E FONT TECH FY 10E FONTS FY 11E FY 12E FY 13E FY 14E PUBLISHING TECH MOBILE TECH
Investment Thesis
III. High price due for a fall
$9
BITS Price
$8
$6
$5
13.5x
$4
J-09 A-09 J-09 O-09
Source: Company Documents and Student Analysis.
Agenda
Executive Summary Company Overview Investment Thesis Valuation Methodology Q&A
Valuation Methodology
BITS is trading at a premium to peers EV/EBITDA
BITS Peer Average
2005A
2006A
2007A
2008A
2009E
2010E
2011E
Valuation Methodology
BITS is trailing in Revenue Growth
YOY Revenue Growth
14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% BITS Peer Average
2008A
Source: Company Documents and Student Analysis.
2009E
2010E
2011E
Valuation Methodology
BITS EBITDA Margins are below Peer Average
EBITDA Margin
BITS Peer Average
2008A
Source: Company Documents and Student Analysis.
2009E
2010E
2011E
Valuation Methodology
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation for Bitstream
Dollars in thousands, except per share Projected Fiscal Years FY 09E FY 10E FY 11E FY 12E FY 13E FY 14E $ 1,257 $ 2,021 $ 2,054 $ 2,020 $ 2,267 $ 2,431 0.905 0.819 0.741 0.670 4.5% 42,116 35,036 0 17,431 52,467 $5.12
Free Cash Flow to the Firm WACC @ 10 .53% Perpetuity Growth Terminal Value @ FY 14E Enterprise Value Less: Long-Term Debt Add: Non-Operating Assets Equity Value DCF Value Per Share
Source: Company Documents and Student Analysis.
Valuation Methodology
Valuation Summary
External factors:
Faster than expected economic recovery Weaker dollar Market inefficiency Takeover risk
Agenda
Presentation Summary Company Overview Recommendation and Support Valuation Methodology Q&A