SAMPLING & ESTIMATION

At times doing work with an entire population may be tedious, time-consuming or even impossible. When this situation arises it is more convenient to use a sample in order to make inferences about a population. However when this is done,

DEFINITIONS
Definition 1

Inferential Statistics is that branch of statistics that is concerned with making inferences about a population BASED on a sample of this population that has been isolated.

Definition 2

A population parameter is a quantity that is calculated based on the entire population.

DEFINITIONS
Definition 3

A sample statistic is a quantity that is calculated based on a sample that has been taken from a specific population.

SAMPLING & ESTIMATION

As previously stated, sampling is performed in order to make inferences about a population. Due to the sample being a subset of the population (see diagram), making these inferences involves performing ESTIMATIONS. Usually population

UNBIASED ESTIMATES
An unbiased estimate is a single value estimate for a specific population parameter. The expected value of this estimate should be equal to that of the parameter. We are interested in three unbiased estimates:

UNBIASED ESTIMATES
Population Parameter Population Mean Unbiased Estimate Sample Mean

Population Variance

Sample Variance

Population Proportion

Sample Proportion

INTERVAL ESTIMATION
Estimating using just a single value, does not always give enough information about the population. interval estimation may provide more information. These estimates are usually made with a certain level of confidence. An

INTERVAL ESTIMATION
Based on information from a sample, we can construct an interval that has a specific probability of including a population Parameter. This is called a confidence interval. This specific probability is referred to as the confidence level (see diagram).

SYMMETRIC CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR THE POPULATION MEAN

In general a symmetric confidence interval for the population mean is the interval equal to the level of confidence. The general form for the confidence interval is when the population variance is known and when it is unknown. In both cases, we will consider to be the such that where is

SYMMETRIC CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR THE POPULATION MEAN

SYMMETRIC CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR THE POPULATION PROPORTION

Confidence intervals may be constructed in a similar manner such that for the level of confidence. The general form for the confidence interval is a random sample of size ( > 30 say) taken from a normal for the proportion of successes within for the population proportion

SYMMETRIC CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR THE POPULATION PROPORTION

SYMMETRIC CONFIDENCE INTERVALS BASED ON FINITE POPULATIONS

If the size of the population is known then the form for the confidence interval changes by a factor of is referred to as the FINITE POPULATION CORRECTION FACTOR which is applicable in those cases when the sample size is not small in comparison with the population size (usually when more than 5% of the . . This quantity

SYMMETRIC CONFIDENCE INTERVALS BASED ON FINITE POPULATIONS

for the population mean.

for the population proportion.

CRITICAL z VALUES
In ALL formulae, represents what is known as the

critical value which is determined by reading the normal tables in reverse. The table on the next slide shows two examples of critical values used in symmetric confidence intervals. Complete the table.

EXAMPLES OF CRITICAL z VALUES

Confidence level 99% (0.99) 98% (0.98) 96% (0.96) 95% (0.95) 90% (0.90) 88% (0.88) 85% (0.85)

Critical value z

1.96 1.64 / 1.65 / 1.645

SUMMARY OF INTERVAL ESTIMATES BASED ON POPULATIONS OF UNKNOWN SIZE

Conditions Normal population with
- known variance - known sample size (large or small) - known sample mean

Interval Estimate

Normal population with

- UNKNOWN variance - known sample variance - known sample size large ( >30) - known sample mean

Non-Normal population with - known sample size large

( >30) - known sample proportion

SUMMARY OF INTERVAL ESTIMATES BASED ON POPULATIONS OF KNOWN SIZE

Conditions Normal population with
- UNKNOWN variance - known sample variance - known sample size large ( >30) - known sample mean

Interval Estimate

Non-Normal population with - known sample size large

( >30) - known sample proportion

*Example 1
The mass(g)of a packet of biscuits of a particular brand, follows a normal distribution with mean . Forty five packets of biscuits are chosen at random and their masses noted. Given that the mean mass of the sample is 397.87 g and the standard deviation of the sample is 3.21 g, determine a 95% confidence interval for the mean mass of the population.

Solution 1
=

Example 2
The mass of vitamin E in a specially ordered capsule manufactured by a certain drug company is normally distributed. A random sample of fifty capsules was analysed and the mean mass of vitamin E was found to be 5.12 mg with a standard deviation of 0.042 mg. Calculate a symmetric 95% confidence interval for the population mean mass of vitamin E if only 500 capsules exist.

Solution 2
=

*Example 3
Out of a random sample of 1000 persons interviewed, 410 supported a change in government. Calculate an approximate 99% confidence interval for the population proportion, , who support a change in government.

*Question taken from A concise course in A-Level Statistics with worked examples (Crawshaw and Chambers)

Solution 3

DETERMINING SAMPLE SIZE

At times determining the appropriate sample size may be necessary. This may done provided with specific conditions. The following are relevant Conditions Formula formulas used for determining sample size:
Confidence level Estimate for population variance Maximum error ALLOWED in estimating population mean Confidence level Estimate for population proportion Maximum error ALLOWED in estimating population proportion

Example 4
The Minister of Health wants to estimate the proportion of Jamaicans who currently support the distribution of condoms in high schools. In previous times, 60% of the population was believed to support the initiative. If the minister wants the new estimate to be correct within 0.04 of the true proportion, determine how large a sample should be surveyed using a 95% level of confidence?

Solution 4

The sample to be surveyed should consist of at least 577 persons. NOTE WELL: Always round UP regardless of how you should round off. The number provided is the MINIMUM value for sample size allowed.

Example 5
A survey is to be conducted to determine whether an increase in the mean annual earnings of surgeons at a particular hospital is warranted. From previous records it is noted that the standard deviation in the mean annual earnings is $0.3M. How large a sample should be considered in order to estimate the current mean annual earnings within $0.1M at the 94% level of confidence?

Solution 5

The sample to be surveyed should consist of at least 32 persons. NOTE WELL: Always round UP regardless of how you should round off. The number provided is the MINIMUM value for sample size allowed.