Future Commercial Aircraft

November 2008
Professor Andrew Walker Christine Bowling

AEROSPACE MARKET
CLASSIFICATION OF AEROSPACE MARKET ACCORDING TO AIRCRAFT TYPE
COMMERCIAL AEROSPACE REGIONAL JET GENERAL AVIATION HELICOPTER DEFENCE SPACE

-Narrow-body Aircraft - Wide-body Aircraft

-Turboprop - Jet

- Piston - Turboprop - Bizjet

- Civil - Military

-Fighter -Ground attacker -Bomber

-Satellite -Launch Vehicle

-Trainer
-UAV

Global
Market 2008 $51.0bn $7.7bn $11.4bn $9.2bn $36.9bn $17.2bn

AGENDA
1. Commercial Demand
2. Future Aircraft 3. Composites Design & Manufacturing 4. Carbon Fibre

1. Commercial Demand Forecast

World Passenger Air Travel in 2008

16.4% in 2022 18.4% in 2022

9.7% 25.9%

9.5% 14% 1.4%

9.7%

2.5% 2.6%
Region Africa Asia, Oceania and CIS 1999-2008 203 1664 2794 285 652 3304 8902 2009-2018 354 2844 3221 270 734 3925 11248 1999-2018 457 4508 6015 555 1386 7229 20150
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AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES

Europe Middle East Central America, Caribbean & South America North America Total

Fuel Burn
50% reduction in fuel consumption per passenger by 2020
20% more efficient engines 30% advanced airframes (CFRP) and aerodynamics Streamlined ATM?
Cathay Pacific 12% wasted fuel

Triple the number of passengers flying by 2020 Need to reduce emissions by 65% or better?
20 June 2005 oil hits ~ $60 per barrel in the Far East! 21 April 2006 oil hits ~ $75 per barrel in New York 20 November 2007 oil hits ~$100 per barrel At $60 Barrel - Aircraft Operations lost $6.2 billion in 2005

NB: Profit of $6 billion would represent an operating margin of 3%

Low Mass Transport Systems

It is common convention to describe Newtons 2nd Law Force = Mass x Acceleration Thus if we reduce the mass of a moving object, we reduce the energy required to move it.

Paradox rising fuel costs and increasing vehicle/airframe weights

The passenger to weight ratio of a vehicle or aircraft is a key measure of its energy consumption efficiency.

Vehicle Weight by Generation

Kg
1550

1450

1350

VW Vectra Golf Mk5 2 Toyota Corolla

1250

Vectra 1 Toyota Corolla Toyota Cavalier Mk3 Corolla Toyota Toyota Cavalier Corolla Corolla Mk2 VW Golf Mk2 Ford Escort MK3

VW Golf Mk4

1150

1050

Vauxhall Cavalier Mk1 Toyota Corolla

VW Golf Mk3

Astra Mk4 Citroen Xsara Citroen ZX

Ford Focus

Astra Mk5

Ford Escort MK5

950

850

Citroen GS VW Golf Mk1

Ford Escort MK2 Astra Mk1

1974 1976 1978

Ford Escort MK4 Citroen BX Astra Mk2

Astra Mk3
Source: Jaguar

YEARS
2002 2004

750 1986 1988 1990 1982 1970 1972 1980 1984 1992 1994

2000

1996

1998

Weight per passenger

BOEING 707 1954, 700kg/passenger

AIRBUS A380 2008, 1,100kg/passenger

(Approx. 430k litres of fuel per day)

An Economic Crisis

COMMERCIAL AVIATION is a mature industry at the end of its current product life cycle, our Industry requires a more efficient aircraft a composite airframe, advanced engines and electric systems!

or Business Opportunity!
Airbus A320 $61-$67m (inc. discount) Annual full bill $20m JET A Fuel $0.71 per gallon in 2002. $3.92 $4.65 in 2008 (Forecast $2.70/gal, 2009) Fuel is 50-60% of operators cost If we cut fuel burn by 30%, we save $6m/yr per single aisle A320 order book ~ 2450 aircraft, build rate ~35 aircraft per month Airbus likely to build 4000-5000 single aisle aircraft over the next 10 years General inflation will start feeding into manufacturing cost of metallic aircraft in 2009 and there is no room absorb increased prices. programmes running. - lean

Air France A320 fleeting is 20+ years old and needs replacing!

Evolution or Revolution
New efficient designs sell for premium prices! (B787 Vs B767, B747-8 Vs B747 Classic) A320 enhanced, 4-5% Fuel saving, aircraft sales value $64m-$70m each (2010) Revised A320 with GTF powered engine (Geared Turbo Fan), 12-18% fuel saving (2014) New A32X Composite Airframe/Electric Systems/GTF Engine, 30% fuel saving? - aircraft sales value $80 $90m each (2016) 400 aircraft per year @ $20m $8bn extra sales CHICKEN AND EGG (Pratt & Witney laid the egg!) Retention value of existing metallic fleet Vs replacement requirements Customers want new aircraft now! Will Boeing lead Airbus? New mainstream single aisle manufacturer?

Options

A Revolutionary Idea changes the existing paradigm

AIRBUS A320 ENHANCED

EVOLUTION!

Flying Wing

Commercial Aircraft
Approx. 30% improvement over 50 years
787 A300 DC-10 747 Pan-Am Tu-104 Comet Jetliner - 102 Constellation TWA Merlin Engine Pressured Cabin Boeing 307 707, Swept Wing, Jets A380

De-regulation

Composites

EUREKA TIMES

Activity Index

30% efficiency improvement over 5-10 years

War Technology Aluminium Aeroplane DC3

Boeing 707 Golden Anniversary

Timeline

1930s

1940s

1960s

1970s

2004

14

1927 1932 Biplanes to Monoplanes

Vickers Vernon (1927)

Boeing 247 (1932)

Metal Construction Monocoque (Stressed-Skin) Construction Cantilevered Wing Variable Pitch Propeller Reliable Engine Retractable Landing Gear

Armstrong Whitworth Argosy

An Operators Perspective
115 Aircraft 15, B747-400 13, B747-400F 58, B777-200/200ER/300 19, B777-300ER 5, A340-500 5, A380-800 (14+ hours/day) (14 hours/day) (15+ hours/day) (14 hours/day) (16+ hours/day)

4th largest airline in terms of international (RPK) Revenue Pax Kilometre 2nd largest airline in terms of FTK (Freight Tonnage Kilometre)

FLEET OPERATION CHARACTERISTICS

Operating a demanding deployment pattern while not compromising safety and high service standard demands reduction or elimination of unscheduled flight interruptions.
The challenge To create high reliability in an environment fraught with uncertainties

The Maintenance Bag

Reliability

Corrosion

Fatigue Weight

Costs Repairability

Corrosion:

33% of aluminium floor beams replaced in B747-400 after 5 years (25 man hours each beam) No corrosion in CFRP B777-200/300s after 10 years!

Worries
1. Insidious mode of failure. Aluminium Cracking Propagation is well understood. February 1989, SIA, Composite Rudder Panel bulging & billowing wind (3 months repair + similar defect on 2 other aircraft)
Susceptibility to Heat Cold and Heat SIA lost a portion of thrust reverse in December 2007. Overheating of CFRP by hot air. Cold also a problem 50c! Full or Zero Repair Approach NDT Limitations Quick & dirty option

2.

3. 4.

Consequence of Unscheduled Event

Conclusions
Composites enable us to do more with less Next Quantum leap involves making detection of defects and repair actions simpler and more convenient The ultimate challenge is to have a new composite material that has active health monitoring features embedded, to accurately pre-empt failures

The Goal is to eliminate all unscheduled events

In this way we would be the master of the situation and not the servant

2. FUTURE AIRCRAFT REVOLUTION!

- Payload ratio
- Drag - Thrust

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FUTURE AIRCRAFT

Blended Wing

Oblique Wing

Activity Index (air traffic) (value) (performance)

Honda Jet

Airbus A350

Cessna Mustang

Boeing 787

Composites Avionics

ARJ 21

Payloads

Eclipse 500

A380

Timeline

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Airbus A380 (500+ passenger sector, 330 aircraft 2008-2024)

A380 Fuselage

Carbon composite pressure bulkhead

23

Twin Aisle Sector (Small and Large Twins)

Airbus A350
(large twin aisle sector ~2300 aircraft 2008 - 2024)
35% of the aircraft, by weight, will be CFRP

Conventional Derivative of the A330

Major Redesign Now 2012-2014

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Original entry into service 2010

Boeing 787 Dreamliner

(Small Twin Aisle Sector, 3200 aircraft 2008 - 2024)

More than 50% composite aircraft

Faustian bargain with Japan, nearly 70% foreign content, wings! Entry into service 2009 more than ~800 orders (USD 160 billion)
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Single Aisle (sector 17000+ aircraft 2007-2024)

100-200 Seats

Airbus A320 successor (2015)

higher bypass engines extended wingspan reduced rear stabilisers

Boeing Y1 Project (2014) scaled version of 787? composite airframe higher aspect ratio wing design

New generation centreline engine in 2014?

31

Bombardier CSeries (sector 5900 aircraft 2008- 2024)

A new aircraft family to fill the sweetspot between regional jets and mid-size airlines ENTRY IN SERVICE 2013
Flying 2008 15% more efficient than Airbus, Boeing or Embraer 100-150 seater 4 models / 2 fuselage lengths maximum take-off weight 5566T seating is 5 abreast 3-2 layout

A318 A319 A320 B717

107 seats 124 seats 150 seats 107 seats

$45m $55m $62m $40m

PI = Range x Speed x Volume MTOW

RJs

100 seats

$30m

Boeing Yellowstone Project

Yellowstone is a Boeing Commercial Airplanes project to replace its entire Civil Aircraft Portfolio. (Composite aerostructures, electrical systems and new turbofan engines)

Yellowstone 3 and Airbus A370 350+ seats, twin deck, twin engine

HAWKER BEECHCRAFT PREMIER 1

First Commercial Aircraft to utilize an all composite fuselage manufactured using Cincinnati System

Total Market for Business and General Aviation

19,700 aircraft 2005 - 2014 29,800 aircraft 2014 - 2024

Adam Aircraft

Honda

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3. COMPOSITES

Weight Saving and Aerodynamics

(Payload & Drag)
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Percentage of Total Take-off Weight

Payload Fuel Systems Crew etc. Power Plant Structure Vimy Commercial 1920 17 25 11 18 29 Vickers Viscount 1956 14 23 25 12 26 Modern Single Aisle 1986 24 18 18 11 29 Modern Long Range 1979 18 37 12 10 23 Concorde Supersonic 1969 9 48 10 10 23

A300-600F

Boeing 737NG Freight

A380-800F Freighter

A400M

Payload

~30

~26

~26

25-28

History shows we need to improve payload/performance by 30% to ignite a new Triz curve.

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Performance Targets
Advanced Aircraft Technologies Low Noise

Weight Reduction
11%

Drag Reduction
7%

Engines

Manufacturing Design + Advanced Materials

Aerodynamics + Composites

5.5%-6.0% fuel saving

6.5% fuel saving

12% fuel saving in 2014 17%-19% saving in 2020

29% - 31% FUEL SAVING

Composite Applications in the Aerospace Market

Boeing 777 Different composite material systems

Source: Opportunities for Composites in the Global Aerospace Market 2004-2010, E-Composites, Inc

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Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey

Interior of V-22 wing upper surface shows the integral skin and stringers in the one-piece composite structure (picture taken
from book by Bill Norton)

Assembly hall in Ridley Park August 1988 V-22 wing for the GTA being fitted in a manufacturing fixture (picture taken from book by Bill Norton)
(picture taken from book by Bill Norton)

44

45

46

47

50

51

52

55

Composites allow a wing to be designed with a smaller wing box

Baseline B787-8 wing box aspect ratio of 10. B777-200 has a ratio of 8.7 Slimmer wings reduced wing area reduced drag

Composites are particularly suited to very large aircraft

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AERODYNAMICS
Airflow is the greatest single determining factor for aircraft performance

Cd A380 = 0.0133

Typical subsonic transport Cd = 0.012

F-8 Supercritical Wing (1973)

COMPOSITE MATERIAL properties allow for the design of high aspect wings (increased laminar airflow and reduced turbulent airflow )

ratio

REDUCED DRAG DUE TO ENHANCED AERODYNAMICS

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Laminar Airflow
Airflow stays attached to the wing. The greater the region of separated flow the greater the drag.

Geodetic (Basketweave) Principle

Barnes Wallis, Wellington Bomber
Spirally wound retaining wire mesh attached to a secondary structure Geodetic line - Shortest distance between two points on a curved surface

Loads carried by shortest route

Eliminates internal load carrying structure
Single Aisle, Geodetic/Carbon Composite aircraft Payload of 34%
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GEODETIC AIRCRAFT
Vickers 432 experimental wing

R-100 Airship

Wellington Factory

61

Design Rules
1. 2. 3. 4. Curves not Corners Linear joints rather than bolts and rivets Reduce component part count! Wings - high aspect ratio, avoid moving leading edge - smooth surfaces - GINA shape, changing system - reduce monuments, front spar, ribs - high flexural wing - laminar airflow! (on main wing and aerofoils) - no centre wing box (streamline wing to fuselage fairing) Fuselage - tubes not panels Small Empanage Electric not hydraulic Accurate assembly, water jet cutting Materials Specification Use of different grades of carbon fibre, prepregs etc. Female Moulds

5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.

STRATEGY NEW SINGLE AISLE COMPOSITE AIRFRAME AIRCRAFT

Vertical Integration
Design for Use (Design for Manufacture)
Optimized Virtual Design
Netshape woven textiles Advanced Materials

Low Cost Processing

Net Shape Composites

Low Cost Assembly

Self Monitoring (NDT)

Self Healing

25% Wt Saving - 25% reduction in manufacturing costs 25% reduction in operating costs

Timescales
Operators Specification Design Concept Detailed Design Design Fix Manufacturer

0-3 years
Low hanging fruit

3 years
Simple Primary

5 years
Medium to Large Primary

6 years
Wings & Fuselage

- interiors - secondary structures - fuel pipes

ribs stringers floor beams general aviation components

rear pressure bulkhead tail sector complex and thick sections composite pylons

complete fuselage wings engines

Philosophy
Background Objectives Scope Constraints Assumptions Resources Deliverables Output Value

FORECAST DELIVER FOR NEW AIRCRAFT

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010

A320 371 389 414 414

A330-A340 71 77 87 89

A340-600 10 12 10 10

A380 1 8 30 50

A400M 0 1 12 19

Total 453 487 553 582

A350 & A32X (NEW SINGLE AISLE) Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 A350 3 65 (140) A32X 0 4 80 (150) 370 (360)

100 (140) 110 (140)

2018

130 (140)

460 (480)

BOEING B787 & Y1 (NEW SINGLE AISLE) Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 B787 0 7 49 96 148 180 200 200 200 225 200 200 1 65 180 260 450 Y1

The above are aircraft delivery dates, components generally enter the supply chain 2-3 years before delivery of the first aircraft. Both Airbus and Boeing estimate aircraft demand to be about 1000 large passenger aircraft from 2009. However, when we add forecast build numbers, the total is ~1270 aircraft/year (from 2010). Passenger travel is growing at around 6% per year. It therefore seems likely that the 1000 number is a serious underestimate.

4. CARBON FIBRE

Future Demand for an Advanced Material

Estimated Carbon Fibre Demand (Tonnes) 2006-2020

Confirmed Scenario 2006 Civil Aviation Existing aircraft (A320, B777 etc) B747 Replacement B777 Replacement A380 A350 B787 New B737 and A32X Military Fighters, transport, helicopters Regional Aircraft and Business Jets Total Wind Energy Sports Industrial (including gas tanks) Other uses (including anti-ballistic & medical) Grand total 2010 2020 Forecast Scenario 2020 Aluminium Model 2020

3,700

5,200

3,400

2,000 2,600 6,000 2,200 8,500 6,000 15,000 2,600

200 100 900 230 5,130 3,750 5,420 11,660 1,000 26,960

2,000 3,000 1,250 488 11,938 7,500 6,660 16,666 1,000 43,764

2,000 2,700 6,000 15,000 1,800 625 31,525 20,000 8,330 25,830 1,000 86,685

1,200 46,100 60,000 9,000 50,000 2,000 167,100 364,000