Train pushers in Japan. Japan is a HEDC country with a population of 127.5 million.

Their population however is ageing, and declining.

DEMOGRAPHY
June, 2012 (PCH)

Size of populations/ reasons for the increase and decrease of the numbers of people/ way in which people are distributed/ general changes or trends. 1

How we use demographic statistics

Study the current state of a population Make predictions about how the population may change in the future Compare the changes that have occurred in the population between one time period and another.

Comparison of Australia and Timor-Leste, 2009

(Source: CIA, World Factbook, 2009)

Australia Median age life expectancy at birth (years) Birth rate (no. births per 1000 of pop.) Death/mortality rate (no. deaths per 1000 of pop.) 81.6 12.47 6.74

Timor Leste 67.3 26.25 5.98

Fertility Rate (no. of children per woman)

Infant mortality rate (no. of deaths per 1000 live births) Literacy rate (age 15 and over who can read and write) GDP per capita (US dollars)

1.78
4.75 99% $38,200

3.28
40.65 58.6% $2,300

These stats can provide demographers with important information to plan for the two communities. Anomaly: (but correct!) Timor Leste has a lower death rate than Australia

Timor-Leste
One of the worlds newest countries
Was Portuguese colony Then occupied by Indonesia (brutal times100,000 died in this 25 yrs)

Roman Catholics One of the poorest countries Citizens face unemployment, poor health 40% live on less than A$1 a day.
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Common statistics used by demographers:

Education levels Infant mortality rate Population density Population growth rate

Death rate
Birth rate Occupation Fertility rate Age Marital status

Literacy rate
Population growth rate

Important source of this information is a national census

Indigenous Australians, 2009 data shows:

Just over million indigenous Aussies (currently 22.3 million Australians, 2012) Majority live in NSW Non Indigenous Australians have a much older average age Indigenous women have more children at younger ages Cardiovascular disease- main cause of death These statistics illustrate the inequalities between the Indigenous and non-Indigenous communities.

Source: Heinemann Atlas 5th Ed.

Developed countries have lower fertility rates than many less developed countries In 2011, ranged from 0.9 (Taiwan) to 7.0 (Niger) Source: PRB 2012

Birth control in Timor Leste

High fertility rate of 3.28 because:
Lack of contraception 98% Roman Catholic (Pope Benedict condemns artificial birth control). This shows the considerable influence the church has on family planning

Fertility in developed countries

Declined significantly over last few decades Decline has become an issue of major concern to policy makers The average fertility rate of 1.6 in developed nations is falling below replacement level.

Fertility in least developed countries

Fertility increases in the least developed countries due to:
Lack of proper health facilities and lack of education for children, particularly girls Women are not empowered to make informed choices about family size The average age of marriage is low, resulting in couples having children at a much younger age Lack of access to family planning and to modern methods of contraception Government commitment to family planning is lacking A largely rural lifestyle means that parents may have more children to ensure that they have adequate labour on the farm Larger families are culturally important and seen to be a sign of value/wealth/ happiness No government pension is available and children are responsible for parent care in old age. High infant mortality rates, results in families trying to compensate for the ones not likely to survive infancy
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Mortality
No. of deaths per 1000 people per year Causes: old age, disease, accidents, natural disasters, poor general health/ sanitation. Mortality rate is related to life expectancy
E.g. Australia
Life expectancy has increased over the last century (now 81.6 yrs) Therefore mortality rates have fallen considerably (now 6.74)

Thus, mortality rate and life expectancy are inversely related (meaning when one increases, the other decreases).
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Indigenous Australians
In QLD, WA, SA & NT combined
75% of indigenous males amd 65% of indigenous females died before the age of 65 years This is in stark contrast to the non indigenous population where only 26% of males and 16% females who died aged less than 65.

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Infant mortality rate (IMR)

Source: Heinemann Atlas 5

th

Ed.

No. of deaths of babies under one year of age per 1000 live births

Angola >

In 2009, Angola had highest IMR (180.2) Singapore had lowest IMR (2.31)

13

Migration
The movement of people from one area to another with the intention of living in the new location for a relatively long period also influences the size of populations. Types: Internal migration (rural urban) or international migration
Voluntary reasons for migration Employment Better standards of living Economic incentives Greater freedom Family reunions Involuntary reasons for migration Conflict/ war Persecution/ torture due to religious or social affiliations, ethnicity, race or political views Famine Natural disasters
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Source: Heinemann Atlas 5th Ed, 2010

15

Reading a population pyramid

Population pyramids enable comparisons to be made between countries and can help a country plan for future service needs such as retirement homes or schools. Australian population pyramid:
http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/d3310114.nsf/h ome/Population%20Pyramid%20-%20Australia
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Population pyramids are used to show information about the age and gender of people in a specific country.

Male

Female

In this country there is a high Birth Rate

There is also a high Death Rate.

Population in millions

This population pyramid is typical of countries in poorer parts of the world (LEDCs.)

Source: slideshare

In some LEDCs the government is encouraging couples to have smaller families. This means the birth rate has fallen.

Male

Female The largest category of people were born about 40 years ago.

In this country the number of people in each age group is about the same. Population in millions

In this country there is a low Birth Rate and a low Death Rate. This population pyramid is typical of countries in the richer parts of the world (MEDCs.)

Male

Female

Population in millions In this country the birth rate is decreasing.

This is happening more and more in many of the worlds richer countries.

In the future the elderly people will make up the largest section of the population in this country.

Male

Female

Population in thousands This country has a large number of temporary workers. These are people who migrate here especially to find a job.

Population pyramid for Mozambique.

Population pyramid for Iceland.

What happens next?

What is going to happen to Japans population in the future? Why does this matter?

JAPANs population clock http://mega.econ.tohoku.ac.jp/Child /index_en.jsp

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27

Reading a population pyramid

Unlike the DTM, pyramids include immigrants, but like that model can present 4 idealised types of graphs representing different stages of development.

31

Reading a Demographic transition model

Source: Resources and perspectives , 2012

32

Demographic transition model

Literally means a model of population change shows the relationship between birth rates and death rates. describes how over a period of time, a sequence of change in population growth occurs. The model based on trends in several industrialised countries (e.g. UK) which suggested there are four stages which all countries will eventually pass (now witnessing a fifth stage in MEDCs where population is declining).
33

Source: http://www.nssgeography.com/

34

DTM Stage 1
Stage 1: High stationary High birth rates, high death rates - small population growth Reasons:
little access to birth control high infant mortality so parents tend to have more children to compensate in the hopes that more will live children are needed to work on the land to grow food for the family children are regarded as a sign of virility (strength) in some cultures religious beliefs (e.g. Roman Catholics and Hindus) encourage large families high death rates, especially among children because of disease, famine, poor diet, poor hygiene, little medical science.
35

DTM Stage 2
Stage 2: Early expanding Birth rates still high but death rates fall rapidlyrapid population growth Reasons:
improvements in medical care - hospitals, medicines, etc. improvements in sanitation and water supply quality and quantity of food produced rises transport and communications improve the movements of food and medical supplies decrease in infant mortality.
36

DTM Stage 3
Stage 3: Late expanding Birth rates fall rapidly, death rates continue to fall slightlyincrease in population slows down Reasons:
increased access to contraception lower infant mortality rate means there is less need to have a bigger family industrialisation and mechanisation means fewer labourers are required the desire for material possessions takes over the desire for large families as wealth increases equality for women means that they are able to follow a career path rather than feeling obligated to have a family.

37

DTM Stage 4
Stage 4: Low stationary Both birth rates and death rates remain low (fluctuating slightly to give a steady population)- stable or slow increase. fluctuating with 'baby booms' and epidemics of illnesses and disease. This results in a steady population.
38

DTM Stage 5
Since the 1990's it has been noticed that several MEDC;s appear to be entering a new and fifth stage. It is predicted that countries entering this stage will eventually see a decrease in population. Declining birth rates and death rates, slow decrease in population.

39

 *while it is generally true that MEDCs (more economically developed countries) have reached stage 4, most of the LEDCs (least economically developed countries) remain at stage 2.
40

 Using your DTM, annotate the stages with factors which cause changes in BR/DR/PC listed on slides 35 to 39. Also in another colour, write down one or two countries that are representative of these stages using slide 34.

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