Disaster?

Or Catastrophe?

Forest Eco System

Resource rich areas inhabited by resource poor people Sustainable livelihood of these communities is under threat due to indiscriminate resource depletion. effects of mining in local habitats commercialisation of agriculture and impact on vegetation in the long run (particularly fertilisers and pesticides) effects of deforestation on environment depletion of groundwater resources Role that indigenous communities have played in conserving forests needs to be recognised.

Coastal Zones
Simulation models show an increase in frequencies of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal particularly intense events are projected during the post-monsoon period Sea level rise is projected to displace populations in coastal zones, increase flooding in low-lying coastal areas, loss of crop yields from inundation and salinization.

7500 km coast line Vulnerable areas along the Indian Coast due to SLR

Coastal Eco System

Threat of displacement due to sea level rise
Threat of intensification of disasters: Effects on the marine life and plant/crop life:

Seawater being polluted by toxic chemical waste discharged from industries

Accumulation of carbon dioxide destroys the natural food chains and fisheries in the Bay Acquaculture poses major threat to mangroves of the dying out of phyto plankton which are said to absorb carbon dioxide floating on the surface. The dying out of phyto plankton which are said to absorb carbon dioxide floating on the surface.

Climate Change and Mountainous region

Basic manifestations Increasing number of glacier retreats. incidents of landslides, river regimes and floods increase; in in time due to global warming if glaciers disappear, the rivers will dry upnd entire flora and fauna of about 500 million people will be affected. Impact of overexploitation of resources on local climate and ecology: Loss of bio-diversity esp rare species of medicinal plants, Stress on traditional agriculture,

Increase in natural disasters which are climate induced:

earthquakes, landslides and avalanches, floods and droughts

Arid region
Once resource rich areas now have become arid.

Rainfall has decreased over time in the arid regions thus affecting crop production. Reduced production has resulted in over exploitation of land resources and has further exacerbated the depletion of forests.
Forest fires have increased, Increase in bald hills and denuded areas, Accelerated soil erosion, gullies, Sand casting of agricultural land in lower reaches, Siltation of the traditional water harvesting structures

Urban Areas
Two basic sources affecting climate changes are:
Effluents from Industries. Emissions from the automobiles. Major threat to local populations is related to health: Air mobility has increased dramatically in the last decade due to

an increasing middle class

Underlying Concerns
Inter-linkage between exploitation of natural resources, climate change and poverty Unmet development needs of the poor conflict with the aspirations of the rich Share of Non-conventional energy in energy consumption is very low

CDM Projects have little relevance with sustainable development from the macro and micro perspective
Climate Change negotiations are disappointing

Key Vulnerable River Basins

Acute physical water scarce conditions Constant water scarcities and shortage Seasonal / regular water stressed conditions Rare water shortages

Agriculture
Decrease in yield of crops as temperature increases in different parts of India - For example a a 2C increase in mean air temperature, rice yields could decrease by about 0.75 ton/hectare in the high yield areas and by about 0.06 ton/hectare in the low yield coastal regions. Major impacts of climate change will be on rain fed crops (other than rice and wheat), which account for nearly 60% of cropland area. In India poorest farmers practice rain fed agriculture. The loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9 and 25% for a temperature rise of 2-3.5C.

Health Malaria is likely to persist in many states and new regions at hogher latitudes may become malaria-prone The duration of the malaria transmission windows is likely to widen in northern and western states and shorten in southern states.

Endemic regions of malaria

Regions likely to be affected by malaria in 2050s